Proposed Jaylen Brown Trade Ideas

[Atzar]

This crap is why I dislike advanced statistics as they're discussed in basketball.

Advanced statistics should break basketball players down into their many complexities.  How does this player perform in this position, this role, this set, this situation.  I suspect that's what real analysts, employed in front offices, are doing.

The stat up above about Jaylen hurting his teammate's scoring comes from Jeremias Engelmann. He worked with the Suns and with the Mavs. He works at ESPN now. He created their real plus/minus stat for them.

The second graph comes from a guy I haven't heard of before. His twitter page says he is a draft analyst. But no idea for who or what his background is.

Cool, but for all his accreditation he just intentionally dropped a misleading stat that makes a player look bad on its surface but isn't nearly as incriminating if given a bit of thought.

Jaylen's teammates score less when he's on the court.  Cool.  He's a massive-usage player, that's really all that is saying.  Most high-usage scorers are in that region of the chart, including many shiny names for whom we don't host this public trial-by-misrepresented-analytics.  Naturally teammates of high-usage players are going to score more when the high-usage guy is resting and they're having to bake their own bread for a while. 

[Who]

So that was a tweet that is linked to an article that is behind a substack paywall. There is a full article talking about various advanced stats that do not like Jaylen Brown. The substack account is Royce Webb who worked at ESPN in the past.

https://www.roycewebb.com/p/the-analytics-case-against-jaylen

Like I said, it is behind a paywall so I can't see what else is in the article. That tweet is part of it though.

[Who]

Jeremias Engelmann
@JerryEngelmann

No player in the NBA lowers the points that his teammates score, while on the court with him, more than Jaylen Brown. He lops off 4 points, per 100, from each of the 4 teammates that share the court with him

I do think this is a bad graph for Jaylen.

The graph clearly shows the correlation between high scoring and your teammates scoring going down but Jaylen is at the bottom of it. There are 8 other players in that vertical line above Jaylen who score at a similar rate as him (40-44pts per 100poss). None of them impede their teammates as much as Jaylen does. The best one only a -1pts per 100poss compared to Jaylen who is 4 times worse at -4pts per 100poss.

The next horizontal tier over has 1 player equal to Jaylen in the -4pts per 100poss but scores 5pts extra per 100poss. If Celtics2021 is correct and that is Luka, the 2nd tweet I linked to shows Luka has a lower turnover rate (while dishing more assists to teammates) than Jaylen.

David Lee: stars tend to suppress their teammates' PPG, but they pair that scoring usage with hyper-efficiency (Giannis/prime Joel), influence high quality shots (Wemby), and/or suppress TOs (Luka). in contrast, a jump in Jaylen Brown's scoring output leads to diminishing returns for BOS👇

Then there are 2 others in that 45+pts per 100poss that have better numbers than Jaylen. That impede their teammates scoring less despite them scoring more than Jaylen does. That is bad too.

So out of the 11 players in that 40-45pts & 45+pts per 100poss, Jaylen is the worst of them.

[Who]

Shams on Jaylen Brown

"If the price lowers at some point this offseason to 2 firsts (round picks) or maybe 2 firsts and then some, then you might see something.

My indication right now is they would not want to go that route"

[Phantom255x]

Gonna be honest, if they do end up pulling the trigger and trade Jaylen for a mere role players and limited picks, I'm gonna start to really be critical of Brad Stevens. He's done a lot of good, but this offseason has the potential to look pretty poor on his end. Even if they want to offload Jaylen for reasons (contract, streaming, media, etc.), you can't waste an asset like that in this manner.

If they really can't back good value for Jaylen, not even "80 cents on the dollar", then just keep him. Have those conversations and make amends.

It's also been a bit of a weird offseason where all of a sudden, every rumor is leaked and it's like the Celtics plans are just out in the open, which is different from how the C's and Stevens typically operate. Not just the Giannis stuff but even the Jaylen rumors

[No Nickname]

Jeremias Engelmann: Jaylen Brown has one of the best shooting touches in the NBA (as measured by actual points vs. expected points, based on shot location and type) Problem is, his shot selection is among the worst, trailing only DeMar DeRozan

Leonard?s future in Los Angeles is now growing murkier, the Clippers have reportedly emerged as a serious team to watch for Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown. According to ESPN?s Vincent Goodwill, one league executive said the Clippers "want Brown bad," adding another major name to what has already become one of the NBA?s most active rumor cycles. -New York Post

Multiple executives still believe Portland could be involved in trade discussions for the Celtics' Jaylen Brown, and that could be the next big move. Has Morant hit rock bottom? One high-level exec told ESPN over the weekend that he believes Morant?s needs extend beyond basketball. He actually believes, however, that Morant can make a comeback to his old form because of how the guard competes when he?s healthy. -ESPN

[celticinorlando]

Shams on Jaylen Brown

"If the price lowers at some point this offseason to 2 firsts (round picks) or maybe 2 firsts and then some, then you might see something.

My indication right now is they would not want to go that route"

He is not getting moved IMO. And we cannot afford to have this linger until camp. Take your losses and just say we are keeping him. This has become a circus and not how Brad likes to opperate or should opperate.