The Celtics at a minimum need one of the following three things: a boatload of outright picks, substantial cap and tax relief, or three quality players, two of whom would be capable of starting on this year's Brownless team and last year's Tatumless version of this team. Preferably they would get two of those three things. This deal provides zero.
The idea of Scoot, Sharpe, Grant, and picks does not do it for me unless they are able to flip these assets and get some starter level players from another team. That package seems like something MIL would have been interested in but I don't see how it works for BOS.
Despite having just railed against the deal, I think it is defensible with enough picks. It probably takes about 5 picks for it to reach that status, but there is a threshold. I look at it like this. Last year, the Celtics were pretty successful for the first 2/3 of the year (pre-trade deadline) with a starting lineup of White, Pritchard, Brown, random wing, and Queta. Even if all the players we got from Portland are bench players, as I assert, then the lineup would be White, Pritchard, Tatum, random wing, and Queta. The bench is largely the same, with a bunch of other random wings buttressed by the Portland wings. The only substantial change on the bench is Scoot instead of Simons. Could a former #3 pick in his fourth year approximate what Simons gave to us if he gets healthy? Not crazy. Also, Tatum is better than Brown. Last year?s team was a first-round exit, but could have probably gone further with a better first-round matchup (Toronto, for example, was a 5-seed and we dominated them all year). This year, probably the same thing. Not a championship, but not dire.
Yeah, I see it the same way. I view that team as a 50+ win team but not built for playoff success. So we still have a very good team. Just not a great team.
The Celtics would not need to make an immediate move. They could, of course, but staying the course would leave the Celtics with a competitive team with upside. Maybe Sharpe learns how to play basketball instead of just being an athlete. Maybe it clicks for Scoot and he stays healthy, and the talent them made him the #3 pick shines. Maybe Hugo takes another large step forward in year 2. Reloaded with picks, maybe the Celtics can turn Jerami Grant on an expiring contract into whichever star hits the trade market next summer. Right now the Celtics path forward is narrow. More immediate (get the right free agent, get a healthy Tatum for a year, and see one young wing out of about 5 take a leap to be a true starter), but narrow. The Celtics, with enough picks from Portland (in this example, but we can sub in several other teams and wind up in a similar place) are further from immediate contention but have way more possibilities of getting there than the current Celtics. The Celtics with an insufficient number of picks have fewer avenues, however, while being further in the present to boot. So that is the needle Brad must thread.
Agreed. One of those young players takes a step forward and that 50+ win team turns into a 55+ win team.
I like Scoot as having the best chance to do that. Shaedon Sharpe has a shot also. And Hugo & J Walsh have a shot if they can develop some consistency with their outside shot. So multiple swings at it. Odds are at least one of them takes a substantial step forward.
I also agree that all those picks give BOS a good opportunity at a large improvement in a future trade that could take them back into title contention.
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I prefer our chances at immediate / short term success with Jaylen. I do expect us to be a 55+ win or maybe even a 60+ win team next season if keep Jaylen.
I do like our chances to improve our supporting cast enough with the flexibility we have to be a title contender. Either this season or next season.
And we still have Hugo or J Walsh could take a step forward and become a high quality role player if they become a more consistent shooter.