Time for a change?

[slamtheking]

Who.  I don't think you are necessarily wrong with a lot of your valuation (though I do think you are overvaluing Brown some), but what is the alternative?  Keep him and lose in the 1st or 2nd round again as the team gets older and less talented.  I have no doubt that unless it is a player like Giannis, any individual piece being traded for Brown isn't going to be as good, but it appears to me the team needs to do a mini-rebuild by getting younger, cheaper, etc.  The team also needs more depth. 

I think something like Okongwu, NAW, Risacher, 7 for Brown, 27 makes some sense for both teams.  Atlanta gets another All NBA talent to pair with Johnson and Kuminga (along with Daniels, Kispert).  Boston gets a solid starting center, excellent shooting wing, and a young talented guy that clearly needs a change of scenery, plus the high draft pick (take someone like Flemings). So Boston ends up with 2 "high-level" young talents and 2 "veterans" that can start or at least be reliable rotation pieces.

With no other major moves

Guards - White, PP, Flemings, Hugo
Wings - Tatum, NAW, Hauser, Baylor, Jordan
Bigs - Okongwu, Queta, Risacher, Garza

If Flemings hits or Risacher just needed a change of scenery, that might be the kick start the team needs to actually become a contender again instead of just 1st or 2nd round and out.  I still might try to move White, though I like his steady hand in the backcourt.

I almost always think your trade proposals grossly undervalue whichever C you're shipping out but this time I have to admit that even though I don't want to trade JB, this proposal would be something to consider.  The key is Risacher.  He has to really improve significantly because so far he's looked a lot like a bust for a #1 --> he's looking like a role player off the bench as his ceiling right now.

also, if a JB trade is on the table, I'd also strongly consider moving White and Hauser.  White's game fell off a cliff this year and after this deal he'd still be asked to be the #2 which he failed at BADLY.  Hauser's production dipped this year as well and was just too inconsistent.  when he's on, it makes a huge difference in the offense but when he's off, it kills the offense.

That would be such an awful trade for a top 10 player.

that's why I said the key is Risacher.  based on what he's shown so far, he's a bust.  He'd have to show a lot more promise than what we've seen so far.  of course if he showed that much promise Atlanta wouldn't trade him.

[Vermont Green]

If the Celtics don't make it back to the ECF, they should trade JB for Giannis. I don't think the Bucks can do better than that. Brown can be the undisputed #1 option and do his hero ball shtick.

I am starting to believe that Brown wants to be traded to a team where he can be the undisputed #1, based on some of the things he is saying lately.  He is smart enough to not come right out and say it but I think he is trying to send a message, to make BOS a little uncomfortable, so they are more willing to trade him.

There has been ton of debate on trading for Giannis, even a poll.  I see it as a no brainer, that it would be a great trade.  Giannis is just a little less then 2 years older than Brown.  That seems to be the only issue, that maybe he will diminish or become less durable.  Hard to know.  I see 3 or 4 more really good years and then maybe a couple more of just good years.

[SparzWizard]

If the Celtics don't make it back to the ECF, they should trade JB for Giannis. I don't think the Bucks can do better than that. Brown can be the undisputed #1 option and do his hero ball shtick.

I am starting to believe that Brown wants to be traded to a team where he can be the undisputed #1, based on some of the things he is saying lately.  He is smart enough to not come right out and say it but I think he is trying to send a message, to make BOS a little uncomfortable, so they are more willing to trade him.

There has been ton of debate on trading for Giannis, even a poll.  I see it as a no brainer, that it would be a great trade.  Giannis is just a little less then 2 years older than Brown.  That seems to be the only issue, that maybe he will diminish or become less durable.  Hard to know. I see 3 or 4 more really good years and then maybe a couple more of just good years.

The time to win is now. Tatum is not getting any younger and is in his prime. If we keep running it back this is the same result we will get; first, second or third round exit. We need changes. We had this Jays tandem for 9 years already and only 1 championship came out of it but with some help from Jrue and an easier playing field.

Brown wants his so send him to a team where he can be a no. 1. Ideally send him to Milwaukee so we get Giannis.

[Moranis]

Who.  I don't think you are necessarily wrong with a lot of your valuation (though I do think you are overvaluing Brown some), but what is the alternative?  Keep him and lose in the 1st or 2nd round again as the team gets older and less talented.  I have no doubt that unless it is a player like Giannis, any individual piece being traded for Brown isn't going to be as good, but it appears to me the team needs to do a mini-rebuild by getting younger, cheaper, etc.  The team also needs more depth. 

I think something like Okongwu, NAW, Risacher, 7 for Brown, 27 makes some sense for both teams.  Atlanta gets another All NBA talent to pair with Johnson and Kuminga (along with Daniels, Kispert).  Boston gets a solid starting center, excellent shooting wing, and a young talented guy that clearly needs a change of scenery, plus the high draft pick (take someone like Flemings). So Boston ends up with 2 "high-level" young talents and 2 "veterans" that can start or at least be reliable rotation pieces.

With no other major moves

Guards - White, PP, Flemings, Hugo
Wings - Tatum, NAW, Hauser, Baylor, Jordan
Bigs - Okongwu, Queta, Risacher, Garza

If Flemings hits or Risacher just needed a change of scenery, that might be the kick start the team needs to actually become a contender again instead of just 1st or 2nd round and out.  I still might try to move White, though I like his steady hand in the backcourt.

I almost always think your trade proposals grossly undervalue whichever C you're shipping out but this time I have to admit that even though I don't want to trade JB, this proposal would be something to consider.  The key is Risacher.  He has to really improve significantly because so far he's looked a lot like a bust for a #1 --> he's looking like a role player off the bench as his ceiling right now.

also, if a JB trade is on the table, I'd also strongly consider moving White and Hauser.  White's game fell off a cliff this year and after this deal he'd still be asked to be the #2 which he failed at BADLY.  Hauser's production dipped this year as well and was just too inconsistent.  when he's on, it makes a huge difference in the offense but when he's off, it kills the offense.

That would be such an awful trade for a top 10 player.

2 starters, a recent 1st pick in the draft, and the 7th pick in one if the deepest drafts in memory is not an awful trade for Brown (who is most certainly not a top 10 player). 

[RodyTur10]

Some perhaps realistic options where in most cases the Celtics should ask for additional assets:

LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
De'Aaron Fox (Spurs)
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
Darius Garland (Clippers)
Trae Young (Wizards)

I wouldn't trade Jaylen for any of those PGs. None of the guards contribute as much or are as good as Jaylen is.

I would hate to have to watch LaMelo Ball full time. That guy's shot selection would drive me nuts. This team is bad enough already with their shot selection. It would be so much worse with LaMelo.

Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
Devin Booker (Suns)

More complete offensive players than Jaylen. Better ball-handlers & passers. Less capable defensive players than Jaylen.

I don't think it improves us. It changes us but doesn't improve us. I'll keep Jaylen.

Kawhi Leonard (Clippers)
Amen Thompson (Rockets)
Paolo Banchero (Magic)
OG Anunoby (Knicks)
Trey Murphy (Pelicans)

Neither Anunoby or Trey Murphy are in Jaylen's stratosphere. Both struggle mightily to create their own offense. They can only play off of others.

Amen is a long term prospect / project. He could prove more valuable in the long run if he develops his scoring / shooting. But he is definitely far inferior in the short term. Trading Jaylen for Amen would end our title chances in the short term.

Kawhi is too old and too injury prone. Not trading Jaylen for him.

Banchero is an inferior player to Jaylen. He is also a full time PF which means switch Tatum back to SF. I prefer Jaylen at SF alongside Tatum at PF to Tatum at SF and Banchero at PF.

Banchero still hasn't developed his jump-shot or overall scoring enough to lead a team in the playoffs. He had a career high TS% at 56.6% this season which is below average. That drops to 53.3% in the playoffs. Teams in the playoffs do a better job of limiting his driving lanes and force him to take more contested jump-shots. He isn't good enough at contested jump-shots to make that work. He also can't shoot the 3 well enough.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
Zion Williamson (Pelicans)
Evan Mobley (Cavaliers)
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)

I am not trading Jaylen for Zion. Too injury prone.

I am not trading Jaylen for Markkanen. Markkanen is more limited. More of a one-way player. Can disappear at times. Has never had a high level individual season on a winning team nevermind a title contender. Not worth Jaylen.

Evan Mobley is interesting. First reaction is no but I would think about it. The negative reaction is Mobley has been slow to improve these last few years. He still fails to show up in big games too often. The positive reaction is that Mobley is younger, his defensive game is impressive and his skill-set is one that is hard to find / rare.

Giannis is a good option talent wise. I don't want to do it because I don't like Giannis' game but trade value wise it is a good option. Some risk there with Giannis' recent injuries.

Alperen Seng?n (Rockets)
Jalen Duren (Pistons)
Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Domantas Sabonis (Kings)

No to Duren. He is a basic rim runner center. Not worth Jaylen.

No to Sengun and D Sabonis. I made a longer post on Sengun in one of the Sengun threads. Most of that applies to D Sabonis too. Two similar players.

No to Bam. I don't trust Mazzula / Stevens to use him well. I am not sure Bam is worth JB to begin with but given that I have no confidence in our ability to utilize Bam to his full extent, I definitely have no interest in him.

===============

So Giannis was my only "yes" value wise. Although I hope they do not do it because I don't like watching him play and would rather keep Jaylen.

Mobley was maybe. Likely no.

All the others were definite nos for me.

Thank you for your response Who! I appreciate it. Difficult to find options to trade Brown for an equally as good or better player, or a likely future All Star. For example Banchero which I included in this list may be too much of a stretch (and then I'm not exactly sure of the fit for the Celtics either).

One name I'd like some input on from others. And that goes back to the sell high/buy low concept. With the numbers that Brown put up his value is presumably higher than it will be. On the other hand, there's a guard, an All Star, on this list that has a big contract, but seems to become a burden for his team. It's De'Aaron Fox, who the Spurs may be willing to get rid of. To me an absolute buy low candidate.

I can see the Spurs being thrilled to be able to trade Fox for Brown. And one-for-one I'd probably agree that the Celtics should not entertain this. The thing is that this could be such a great opportunity for the Spurs that the Celtics should be able to demand a lot of additional value.

Perhaps some of you have ideas how to make it more interesting for the Celtics? What assets can the Spurs add to the equation?

This year was an outlier for Brown because his usage was abnormally high. But in previous years the production of Brown and Fox is quite in the same bracket. And with the pace and penetration of Fox the Celtics offense might stop to be so stagnate with iso's and pull-ups. We have enough talented role players to fill in the wing play alongside Tatum.

Rounded numbers in 2024-25 season: points/rebounds/assists (shooting splits) - TS% - AS/TO - VORP

Jaylen Brown 22/6/5 (46/32/76) - 56% - 1.8 - 1.1
De'Aaron Fox 24/5/6 (46/31/83) - 56% - 2.3 - 1.3

[jambr380]

I saw a mention of Markkanen and thought I was expound on that. At first glance, it sounds like a terrible idea, but Markkanen would fit absolutely perfectly into the Celtics offense. His ability to knock down 3s at his size and just score and finish in general is tantalizing. He is not a ballhandler, but he wouldn't be expected to be one here. There are defensive issues, but him with Tatum and Queta could work on that end of the floor. He is at least athletic enough to cover ground.

The Jazz look poised to compete next year, so it may not make sense for them to move one of the only win-now players that's been on their roster for years. But for Jaylen, I think they would make an exception - especially with the Ainge connection. It would help better balance their team and it would then make sense for them to hang on to Walker Kessler with JJJ moving to PF. It would be a great defensive team.

But the Celtics don't make this trade for just Markkanen. If the Jazz get a top 4 pick or if the Celtics are interested in Ace, then I think it becomes a consideration.

The same can be said about the Wizards. They now have AD and Trae. Adding Jaylen to that team would be scary. Sarr isn't as much of a guarantee as Markkanen, but again you would be looking at adding a top 4 pick in addition, and maybe another one of their younger players.

I'm not saying I want these trades to happen, just that if we do move Jaylen that it's probably going to be more of a surprising deal. We ended up with Anfernee Simons last year for Jrue. We traded Smart for KP. And Brogdon/Williams for Jrue. Nobody was talking about these guys as possibilities.

Deals like the ones above or what Moranis has proposed with Atlanta are just as plausible imo. Unless we get Giannis, it's likely that Brad will be looking towards the future by getting younger players with possible star potential.

[Goldstar88]

I saw a mention of Markkanen and thought I was expound on that. At first glance, it sounds like a terrible idea, but Markkanen would fit absolutely perfectly into the Celtics offense. His ability to knock down 3s at his size and just score and finish in general is tantalizing. He is not a ballhandler, but he wouldn't be expected to be one here. There are defensive issues, but him with Tatum and Queta could work on that end of the floor. He is at least athletic enough to cover ground.

The Jazz look poised to compete next year, so it may not make sense for them to move one of the only win-now players that's been on their roster for years. But for Jaylen, I think they would make an exception - especially with the Ainge connection. It would help better balance their team and it would then make sense for them to hang on to Walker Kessler with JJJ moving to PF. It would be a great defensive team.

But the Celtics don't make this trade for just Markkanen. If the Jazz get a top 4 pick or if the Celtics are interested in Ace, then I think it becomes a consideration.

The same can be said about the Wizards. They now have AD and Trae. Adding Jaylen to that team would be scary. Sarr isn't as much of a guarantee as Markkanen, but again you would be looking at adding a top 4 pick in addition, and maybe another one of their younger players.

I'm not saying I want these trades to happen, just that if we do move Jaylen that it's probably going to be more of a surprising deal. We ended up with Anfernee Simons last year for Jrue. We traded Smart for KP. And Brogdon/Williams for Jrue. Nobody was talking about these guys as possibilities.

Deals like the ones above or what Moranis has proposed with Atlanta are just as plausible imo. Unless we get Giannis, it's likely that Brad will be looking towards the future by getting younger players with possible star potential.

I?d probably do Markannen and Keyonte George for JB.
Keyonte torched the Celtics. 6?4 combo guard that averaged 24pts/6ast/4rebs with shooting splits of 46/37/89. George is only 22 as well, so he is going to continue to get better.

[Phantom255x]

Question for cap experts: Can the C's use Vucevic in any way to potentially facilitate a S&T that helps with salary matching?

Like is there a way to give up White, Hauser, 1-2 young players (Baylor and a filler piece) and Vucevic as well on a reasonable extension and send it to MIL for Giannis?

I think the iteration of White/Hauser is still not quite enough for Giannis in terms of money, unless you also add Pritchard which I don't want to do (or if you do, I'd prefer to keep Baylor then). It'd make it easier if possible, but is it possible with Vucevic? What are the cap ramifications and such

[Goldstar88]

Question for cap experts: Can the C's use Vucevic in any way to potentially facilitate a S&T that helps with salary matching?

Like is there a way to give up White, Hauser, 1-2 young players (Baylor and a filler piece) and Vucevic as well on a reasonable extension and send it to MIL for Giannis?

I think the iteration of White/Hauser is still not quite enough for Giannis in terms of money, unless you also add Pritchard which I don't want to do (or if you do, I'd prefer to keep Baylor then). It'd make it easier if possible, but is it possible with Vucevic? What are the cap ramifications and such

Celtics2021 will have an answer for you. This is his department. 

[ozgod]

Question for cap experts: Can the C's use Vucevic in any way to potentially facilitate a S&T that helps with salary matching?

Like is there a way to give up White, Hauser, 1-2 young players (Baylor and a filler piece) and Vucevic as well on a reasonable extension and send it to MIL for Giannis?

I think the iteration of White/Hauser is still not quite enough for Giannis in terms of money, unless you also add Pritchard which I don't want to do (or if you do, I'd prefer to keep Baylor then). It'd make it easier if possible, but is it possible with Vucevic? What are the cap ramifications and such

I'm not Celtics2021, and I'm sure he will correct me if I'm wrong. AFAIK it is doable under the CBA, but trading a newly signed player would hard cap Milwaukee at the first apron, which is the real penalty. So next season here is our cap situation:

(click to enlarge)


So as things stand we are $13m below the tax line and $21m below the first apron, with Vuc's $21m off the books. Say we re-sign Vuc for $8m and offer the following package:

White - $30.3m
Hauser - $10.8m
Baylor - $2.8m
Banton - $2.8m
Vuc - $12m (sign and trade)

TOTAL = $58.8m

Giannis = $58m

While the salaries would match, sign and trading Vuc would immediately hard cap Milwaukee at $209m which is the first apron

So adding up all the salaries, it would leave us with a roster of:

Tatum $58m
Giannis $58m
Brown $57m
Pritchard $7m
Gonzales $2.9m
Garza $2.9m
Queta $2.8m
Harper 2.5m
Walsh $2.4m
Williams $2.1m
Shulga $2.1m

11 players at $197m. So to get to 14 players we would have to sign 3 players, vet mis are $2.1m to $3m depending on years of service, because we would have $12m to spend before exceeding the first apron. And we would be over the luxury tax so we wouldn't be able to reset the repeater tax, given big spending coming the following year, we would be paying the repeater tax rate of 425%.

Also keep in mind - having zero trade flexibility with 3 top heavy contracts at $58m, then the next one is PP at $7m, then its all vet mins.

I'm trying to answer your own question without providing my own opinion on it...but I observing how Brad values flexibility, he doesn't want himself tobe hardcapped at any apron, or not have tradeable pieces to adjust the team if something happens like an injury or lack of chemistry (we all saw what Phoenix had to do to get themselves out of having a top heavy balance sheet, not to mention Morey's challenges with Philly. I think If we want Giannis the most likely, and simplest path is to trade Jaylen. Because Milwaukee are going to say, if you want Giannis give us Jaylen, we don't want White/Hauser/Baylor/Vuc/Banton, espcially if it's going to hard-cap us in what is basically a salary dump of Vuc. You want someone good you gotta give up someone good 

[Moranis]

I saw a mention of Markkanen and thought I was expound on that. At first glance, it sounds like a terrible idea, but Markkanen would fit absolutely perfectly into the Celtics offense. His ability to knock down 3s at his size and just score and finish in general is tantalizing. He is not a ballhandler, but he wouldn't be expected to be one here. There are defensive issues, but him with Tatum and Queta could work on that end of the floor. He is at least athletic enough to cover ground.

The Jazz look poised to compete next year, so it may not make sense for them to move one of the only win-now players that's been on their roster for years. But for Jaylen, I think they would make an exception - especially with the Ainge connection. It would help better balance their team and it would then make sense for them to hang on to Walker Kessler with JJJ moving to PF. It would be a great defensive team.

But the Celtics don't make this trade for just Markkanen. If the Jazz get a top 4 pick or if the Celtics are interested in Ace, then I think it becomes a consideration.

The same can be said about the Wizards. They now have AD and Trae. Adding Jaylen to that team would be scary. Sarr isn't as much of a guarantee as Markkanen, but again you would be looking at adding a top 4 pick in addition, and maybe another one of their younger players.

I'm not saying I want these trades to happen, just that if we do move Jaylen that it's probably going to be more of a surprising deal. We ended up with Anfernee Simons last year for Jrue. We traded Smart for KP. And Brogdon/Williams for Jrue. Nobody was talking about these guys as possibilities.

Deals like the ones above or what Moranis has proposed with Atlanta are just as plausible imo. Unless we get Giannis, it's likely that Brad will be looking towards the future by getting younger players with possible star potential.

I?d probably do Markannen and Keyonte George for JB.
Keyonte torched the Celtics. 6?4 combo guard that averaged 24pts/6ast/4rebs with shooting splits of 46/37/89. George is only 22 as well, so he is going to continue to get better.

why would Utah do that? I don't even know if they'd trade George straight up for Brown.