without PREDICTING injuries where do you rank Celtics out of east?s 15 Squads ?

[Moranis]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

[mobilija]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

Throwing up similar stats of two players says nothing about which player is better or a better fit for the Celtics. You can probably find 30 NBA players w that stat line. Data is meaningless without substantive analysis.

[Moranis]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

Throwing up similar stats of two players says nothing about which player is better or a better fit for the Celtics. You can probably find 30 NBA players w that stat line. Data is meaningless without substantive analysis.

Boucher is a bit taller, but he is a worse shooter.  How exactly is he better than Niang or at least better enough to make it look "way better with Boucher".  I just don't buy that.  Financially swapping them makes a ton of sense, but on the court it isn't much different.  It would have been much better to keep Niang and add Boucher, but basketball is a secondary thought for managment this year.

[trickybilly]

Jaylen should take a year off, like MJ, and try his hand at taking down Magnus Carlssen.

Jaylen will have a 30/10/5 year.

[keevsnick]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

Throwing up similar stats of two players says nothing about which player is better or a better fit for the Celtics. You can probably find 30 NBA players w that stat line. Data is meaningless without substantive analysis.

Boucher is a bit taller, but he is a worse shooter.  How exactly is he better than Niang or at least better enough to make it look "way better with Boucher".  I just don't buy that.  Financially swapping them makes a ton of sense, but on the court it isn't much different.  It would have been much better to keep Niang and add Boucher, but basketball is a secondary thought for managment this year.

For what it's worth EPM had Niang at a +.4, -2.2, -1.8 off/def/total split, while Boucher had a +1.4/-.4/+.9. So EPM at least thinks Boucher was a noticeably better player than Niang last year.

[Kernewek]

NBA.com's John Schuhmann basically thinks we suck balls and are only better than Washington, Charlotte and Brooklyn. He thinks we will finish 12th in the East.

(click to enlarge)

https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-east-2025

Basically, everyone thinks our team is a useless bunch of no-hopers.

If both teams are healthy, I don?t see how the Celtics are better than the Hornets.

Starters: LaMelo Ball, Colin Sexton, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Mason Plumlee

Bench: Mann, Dinwiddie, Josh Green, Knueppel, Grant Williams, Salaun, Kelkbrenner.


That?s a much better roster than what Boston has.

Do you feel like our team is worse than the team we had just before the Jays were drafted, in 2015-16?

This is what we had:

Ball handlers: IT, Avery, Smartacus, RJ Hunter, Terry Rozier
Wings: Jae, Evan Turner, James Young, Coty Clarke, Jerebko
Bigs: Amir Johnson, Kelly, Sully, David Lee, Tyler Zeller

We had more depth in bigs back then, this season we have more in ball-handlers and wings. We weren't paying anyone max contracts then either.

This team finished 48-34 for 5th in the East. Obviously the competition we had might have been different back then.

(click to enlarge)

That 2015-16 team really didn?t have any players that were defensive liabilities in their rotation outside of IT, though. This years Celtics team has a bunch of them with Simons, Queta, Pritchard, Scheierman, Garza. Niang is average at best defensively. This season there will be multiple weak links on the court at the same time that other teams can exploit.

I?m also note sure how JB is going to be able to handle double teams as a #1 option. He did not look good with passing and dribbling after JT went down in the playoffs.

The 2015-2016 team also had Stevens to coach them well above their weight class, looking at the roster. There's no evidence that Mazzulla will be able to replicate that (but also no evidence that he won't be able to, either).

You mean other than the eye test we've had the past few seasons where this team has underperformed in 2 of those 3 seasons?  not saying anything less than a championship is underperforming but the 2 years they didn't win it they went out at least 1 round, if not 2, too early.  each of those years the team lacked focus against an inferior opponent that they should have dominated if they had focused and played with effort and intelligence. 

This will be a telling year regarding Joe's coaching ability.  I have low expectations for this roster (won't make the play-in) and Joe's coaching will likely have them underperforming even those expectations.

Every roster he's coached to this point has had championship aspirations and ability. The stakes, and the expectations, are different. Presuming he'll do poorly under these new circumstances is essentially just projection at this point.

Consider Stevens, who - if you'll excuse the oversimplification for the sake of brevity - struggled coaching rosters that were expected to do more than 'win some games'. Still an excellent coach.

I don't disagree it's conjecture on my part but his track record so far suggests it's not much of a stretch of the imagination to get to that conjecture.  each roster has haD championship aspirations and in 2 of those years they were knocked out in embarrassing fashion by Miami and by NY.  Some of that's on the players but some of that is on Joe --> the style of play he's imposed on the roster and his inability to change or stubborness to rely on his gameplan and not make adjustments when it's not working.

I think there will probably be per-game examples of coaching mistakes, for sure. I don't know if I would presume that this current roster will play the same way that last year's roster was, though.

Remains to be seen, I guess.

[mobilija]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

Throwing up similar stats of two players says nothing about which player is better or a better fit for the Celtics. You can probably find 30 NBA players w that stat line. Data is meaningless without substantive analysis.

Boucher is a bit taller, but he is a worse shooter.  How exactly is he better than Niang or at least better enough to make it look "way better with Boucher".  I just don't buy that.  Financially swapping them makes a ton of sense, but on the court it isn't much different.  It would have been much better to keep Niang and add Boucher, but basketball is a secondary thought for managment this year.

Boucher?s defense is better.

[Moranis]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

Throwing up similar stats of two players says nothing about which player is better or a better fit for the Celtics. You can probably find 30 NBA players w that stat line. Data is meaningless without substantive analysis.

Boucher is a bit taller, but he is a worse shooter.  How exactly is he better than Niang or at least better enough to make it look "way better with Boucher".  I just don't buy that.  Financially swapping them makes a ton of sense, but on the court it isn't much different.  It would have been much better to keep Niang and add Boucher, but basketball is a secondary thought for managment this year.

Boucher?s defense is better.

Perhaps in the sense that a chair on wheels is better than a stationary chair.  He is taller and more athletic so he has that going for him, but they both have negative DBPM for their careers (and last year). Neither is a plus defender or even better than bad.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

Does it? One of these guys was Boucher and one of these guys was Niang, last year

10 p, 4.5 r, 0.7 a, 0.5 s, 0.5 b, 61.5 TS% (36.3% from 3)
9.9 p, 3.4 r, 1.4 a, 0.4 s, 0.2 b, 60.7 TS% (40.6% from 3)

Niang played 79 games to Boucher's 50 and Niang was 21.5 mpg to Boucher's 17.2.

Pretty similar players except Niang is pretty much always healthy and Boucher is less so.

Throwing up similar stats of two players says nothing about which player is better or a better fit for the Celtics. You can probably find 30 NBA players w that stat line. Data is meaningless without substantive analysis.

Boucher is a bit taller, but he is a worse shooter.  How exactly is he better than Niang or at least better enough to make it look "way better with Boucher".  I just don't buy that.  Financially swapping them makes a ton of sense, but on the court it isn't much different.  It would have been much better to keep Niang and add Boucher, but basketball is a secondary thought for managment this year.

Boucher?s defense is better.

Perhaps in the sense that a chair on wheels is better than a stationary chair.  He is taller and more athletic so he has that going for him, but they both have negative DBPM for their careers (and last year). Neither is a plus defender or even better than bad.

Boucher is fine defensively. Don't get the negativity here. He's not a stopper, but he's a decent rotation defender with some tools that can make the offense have to think a bit.

Early in his career he was an advanced stat darling on defense as well.

[Muzzy66]

Jaylen should take a year off, like MJ, and try his hand at taking down Magnus Carlssen.

Jaylen will have a 30/10/5 year.

I doubt that.  He's never been on that level as a rebounder, or as a passer really. I do think he will average close to 30 though. 

JB has historically averaged around 28-29 PPG when Tatum hasn't played, but it's one thing to be the #1 guy for a stretch of 1-2 weeks.  It's a very different thing to be the #1 guy over the course of an entire season. 

It was hard for teams to smother Tatum the past two seasons because we also had Brown, Jrue, White, Porzingis, Horford and Pritchard who are all offensive threats - so if you smother Tatum you're always leaving someone open who can make you pay.  But right now we only really have Simons, White and Pritchard.  Those guys are all capable scorers but they are also all a little inconsistent, so trapping and double/triple teaming Brown is probably going to be a common strategy this year for opponents. That's not something he's really faced in his career thus far (at least not for extended periods of time) and I'm not sure how he'll handle it.

When Brown does get put under greater offensive pressure he can be prone to unforced turnovers and hero ball, so I could see Brown averaging 29/7/4 for the season...but I could also see his turnovers increasing, his shooting percentages decreasing significantly and his defence dropping off a lot due to him simply being asked to do so much. 

[Vermont Green]

As someone above noted, you can itemize the adds and deducts:

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

It ain't pretty.  That is a major down grade in every case except maybe Holiday to Simons.

And yes, I expect Brown to miss games coming off surgery.  He missed his fair share anyways.  That is not a big difference between last season (or any season) and this though.  They will likely be more cautious with him than usual.

Deduct:          Replacement:
Tatum             Niang Luis Boucher
Porzingis         Garza
Holiday           Simons
Horford           Minott
Kornet            Williams (Rookie 2-way)

Hard to keep up.  Looks way better with Boucher.

To clarify, it looks way better with Boucher over Luis, both in terms of the trade and the roster.  But I do like Boucher better than Niang overall. More of what the team needs and in my view, a better overall player to be the say 9th guy on a good team. He could be a starter on the 2025-26 team.