I don't think his value is baked already. Right now, it is probably low, close to the Sexton deal. That is probably the floor (can't go much lower than that). But I think the value can go back up, especially if BOS is willing to take back some salary (players on multi-year contracts).
I don't think his value will change much. His main issue is the type of player / player prototype he is. He is a tweener stuck in between two guard positions.
We can be nice and call him a combo guard but he is more a tweener than a combo guard. Jrue & D White are combo guards who can play both guard positions at a high level. A Simons (like C Sexton) is a tweener guard who can play neither guard position at a high level. His lack of PG skills offensively hurt him there. His lack of size & defense hurt him at SG. Those attributes are unlikely to change.
CJ McCollum was one of the most accomplished guards of this type and Portland could never find a trade that offered them a comparable return. They ended up trading him for a 1st round pick to New Orleans. Nobody would give up value for him. The guy just finished his 10th straight season averaging 20ppg.
It just isn't a player prototype (tweener guards) that does well in the trade market. This has been the case for several years now. That is unlikely to change.
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I like A Simons. I think he is one of the better players of this prototype. I compare him to Jason Terry. An elite shooter, a very good scorer, a solid ball-handler with some playmaking. You get them in the right situation and they can be valuable on court (even as a tweener guard).
I'd love to see A Simons at PG next to a big playmaking wing like a LeBron, Luka, Harden. That sort of thing. He could do great things in that situation. Just like J Terry did alongside Dirk.
A Simons needs to play PG defensively. That makes it hard to build a roster with enough passing / playmaking. That is why I would like to see him with a playmaking wing.
Boston is actually close to an ideal situation for A Simons. D White is an ideal backcourt partner for A Simons. White has the size to cover bigger SGs that A Simons cannot and has the PG skills to help A Simons run the offense. Plus we have Tatum who while not quite as good a playmaking wing as the guys mentioned above, he is still very good in his own right. So this is a very good stuation here in Boston for A Simons.
I wouldn't rule out A Simons being here long term. Especially if he can upgrade his defense from abject (bottom 10%) to below average but passable (around 40th percentile) for the PG position. He is a quality player - comparable to Jason Terry - and he has low trade value relative to his on-court skills so keeping him may end up happening. It may end up being the best option.
For the right player, I could see BOS packaging say Simons, Hauser, and the 2026 pick (likely a very good pick by the trade deadline). That could get back a very good player or a couple of decent, solid players.
I agree. I see A Simons more as the cap filler in this trade. I believe the large majority of the value in this trade package will come from the draft pick. A Simons will have some value but small. Like CJ McCollum above.
I see coupling A Simons (contract, positive modest trade value) with picks as our best route to getting another difference maker alongside Tatum, Jaylen and D White. This would be my primary strategy moving forward for the team. The best route to getting another difference maker.
I was thinking of 2-3 picks with A Simons ... but yeah, you are right, that Celtics pick could be a top 10 pick next year. So that will be very valuable in its own right. You might be able to get such a player just with that pick + A Simons. Or, if an even better player becomes available, that pick + future picks + A Simons.
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I would be trying to sign A Simons to a contract extension. I would be finding out what he is looking for on his next deal. If you could get him for under $30mil per year, that would be a good deal. If you could get it down nearer to $25mil. If he wants more than $30mil, I think you play out the year and see what the market looks like next summer.
The problem is if we lose him in FA we have no way of replacing him because we will be over the cap.
Note: I would be trying to sign A Simons to an extension in both scenarios (1) as an option to keep him long term because he is a good player (comparable to Jason Terry) (2) to keep him on the books in order to protect him as trade filler.
I don't see A Simons as the headline piece in a trade deal. More cap filler with modest positive add-on value. If he is the headline piece, we are not going to get much back for him. However, if the picks are the headline piece, we can get something valuable for them and use A Simons' contract as a cap makeweight to get such a player.
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Sorry, just to go back and reiterate something.
A Simons' trade value will not change singificantly because the main problem is that he is a tweener guard. That is unlikely to change. He is unlikely to suddenly develop above average PG skills. Nor is he going to grow bigger and suddenly be able to defend the SG position. He is just too small.
It doesn't really matter if he shoots slightly better or defenders a bit better. He will still be a tweener. Not enough PG skills to play the role on offense. Not enough size to defend the SG position. He is stuck in between two positions.
Whatever improvements he manages to make it will only make a minor difference to his trade value because the main issue that is effecting his trade value / lowering his value will not have changed. He still will not be a true PG. He still will not be big enough to play SG defensively.
