Our bigs going forward

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I know, Bane is the better player overall, but is there really as much difference as the trade packages would suggest?

For Bane, MEM got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round draft picks, and a first-round pick swap.  That is a Bridges level trade.

For Collin Sexton and a 2030 second-round pick, UTA got Jusuf Nurkić, that is essentially nothing.

Bane, age 27, has 4 more years for about $163M

Sexton, age 26, is expiring at $18,975,000.

If you compare their stats, they are not that far apart.  Bane is a more efficient shooter overall, including from 3, but how is there that much difference in the packages?  Simons is closer to Sexton for sure based on scoring stats.

I don't expect that Simons will return a couple of useful players and 4 picks like Bane, that feels like an overpay even for Bane.  But I think we can do better than having to attach a pick to dump him for a lumbering big who probably isn't a starter.  The Sexton deal has probably poisoned the market for Simons in the near term.  Feels like we can get something for him, even a TPE may be valuable to get a big next sesaon.

Regarding the Bane deal, KCP and Anthony were negative assets.  The Grizz are already trying to trade Anthony.  Other than possibly the Suns 2026 pick, none of the 1st rounders are likely to be lottery picks and the pick swap probably won't happen.  Memphis was also desperate to free up salary so they could overpay JJJ.  Finally trading players, even good ones, on expiring contracts don't provide much value unless the player agrees to an extension. 

Here are 3 players stats from last season.  Obviously one season doesn't represent a player's full worth but how would you rank them and how much separation would you have between them?
 
Player         A                  B                   C                D
Games       69                63                  63              70
MPG         32.0             34.3               27.9            32.7
Pts           19.2             22.2               18.4            19.3
Reb            6.1              5.8                 2.7              2.7
Ast             5.3              4.5                 4.2              4.8
Stl              1.2              1.2                 0.7              0.9 
Blk             0.4              0.3                 0.1              0.1
TO             2.4               2.6                 2.5              2.0
FG%        48.4              46.3               48.0            42.6
3P%         39.2              32.4               40.6           36.3
FT%         89.4              76.4               86.5           90.2
EFG%       56.5              51.5               54.3           52.1
USG%       23.6              28.9              27.0           24.6

OWS          4.0               2.3                 2.5             2.9
DWS          2.6               2.9                -0.1             1.2
WS            6.5               5.2                 2.4              4.2
WS/48       .142             .115               .066           .087
OBPM        2.6                .4                  1.7              1.5
DBPM        0.6              -.4                  -2.3             -1.5
BPM          3.2               0.0                 -0.6             -0.1
VORP        2.9               1.1                   0.6             1.1

Unfortunately for this game, I think I know who each player is.  By these numbers, you would think that Player B could never be a finals MVP, but I think he was.  More germane to this discussion, player A and player C look similar in terms of scoring.  One rebounds much better and probably plays better defense but the scoring stats are similar.  If you had put Simons stats in there instead of Player B, his scoring stats would look similar to Players A and C.  2024-25 was a down year for Simons relative to his career numbers.

I think Bane will be a really good pick up for Orlando, but right now, it appears to me that they overpaid.  Not sure who they were bidding against.  Of course, I thought that BOS overpaid for White when they got him, a lot of people did.  Sometimes overpaying works out just fine.

As to Simons, I don't know his game all that well.  I believe he will be traded and that the deal for BOS will be something between what MEM got for Bane and what UTA got for Sexton.  Statistically for his career, he has shot and scored about as well as Bane if you match up the seasons to when they were the same age.  He isn't as big but 6'-3" and 200 lbs is big enough to play in the NBA.  All reports are that Bane is a much better defender and I don't doubt that.  Simons will be playing for a contract.  Hopefully he plays well enough to generate some value.

Two of the players were obvious given the discussion player A (Bane) and C (Sexton) and you are correct player B is Jaylen Brown.  Per your request, I added player D (Simons) above and I also added some advanced stats. 

Simons is on an expiring contract and he doesn't have a good reputation.  Assuming Stevens can get a deal done, it will be similar to the Sexton deal and more specifically the KP deal (save a lot of money but don't get any players or picks of value).  If Simons were more tradeable, the Blazers wouldn't have done the Holiday trade.

You are just wrong here. Holliday had significant value around the league, and the Blazers had to give up Simons, who is a really high level scorer and shooter, and 2 seconds to get him. Holiday was not a dump trade. It was a value trade.

We are going to see how this will work out, but all the naysayers on here will be wrong.

[tazzmaniac]

I know, Bane is the better player overall, but is there really as much difference as the trade packages would suggest?

For Bane, MEM got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round draft picks, and a first-round pick swap.  That is a Bridges level trade.

For Collin Sexton and a 2030 second-round pick, UTA got Jusuf Nurkić, that is essentially nothing.

Bane, age 27, has 4 more years for about $163M

Sexton, age 26, is expiring at $18,975,000.

If you compare their stats, they are not that far apart.  Bane is a more efficient shooter overall, including from 3, but how is there that much difference in the packages?  Simons is closer to Sexton for sure based on scoring stats.

I don't expect that Simons will return a couple of useful players and 4 picks like Bane, that feels like an overpay even for Bane.  But I think we can do better than having to attach a pick to dump him for a lumbering big who probably isn't a starter.  The Sexton deal has probably poisoned the market for Simons in the near term.  Feels like we can get something for him, even a TPE may be valuable to get a big next sesaon.

Regarding the Bane deal, KCP and Anthony were negative assets.  The Grizz are already trying to trade Anthony.  Other than possibly the Suns 2026 pick, none of the 1st rounders are likely to be lottery picks and the pick swap probably won't happen.  Memphis was also desperate to free up salary so they could overpay JJJ.  Finally trading players, even good ones, on expiring contracts don't provide much value unless the player agrees to an extension. 

Here are 3 players stats from last season.  Obviously one season doesn't represent a player's full worth but how would you rank them and how much separation would you have between them?
 
Player         A                  B                   C                D
Games       69                63                  63              70
MPG         32.0             34.3               27.9            32.7
Pts           19.2             22.2               18.4            19.3
Reb            6.1              5.8                 2.7              2.7
Ast             5.3              4.5                 4.2              4.8
Stl              1.2              1.2                 0.7              0.9 
Blk             0.4              0.3                 0.1              0.1
TO             2.4               2.6                 2.5              2.0
FG%        48.4              46.3               48.0            42.6
3P%         39.2              32.4               40.6           36.3
FT%         89.4              76.4               86.5           90.2
EFG%       56.5              51.5               54.3           52.1
USG%       23.6              28.9              27.0           24.6

OWS          4.0               2.3                 2.5             2.9
DWS          2.6               2.9                -0.1             1.2
WS            6.5               5.2                 2.4              4.2
WS/48       .142             .115               .066           .087
OBPM        2.6                .4                  1.7              1.5
DBPM        0.6              -.4                  -2.3             -1.5
BPM          3.2               0.0                 -0.6             -0.1
VORP        2.9               1.1                   0.6             1.1

Unfortunately for this game, I think I know who each player is.  By these numbers, you would think that Player B could never be a finals MVP, but I think he was.  More germane to this discussion, player A and player C look similar in terms of scoring.  One rebounds much better and probably plays better defense but the scoring stats are similar.  If you had put Simons stats in there instead of Player B, his scoring stats would look similar to Players A and C.  2024-25 was a down year for Simons relative to his career numbers.

I think Bane will be a really good pick up for Orlando, but right now, it appears to me that they overpaid.  Not sure who they were bidding against.  Of course, I thought that BOS overpaid for White when they got him, a lot of people did.  Sometimes overpaying works out just fine.

As to Simons, I don't know his game all that well.  I believe he will be traded and that the deal for BOS will be something between what MEM got for Bane and what UTA got for Sexton.  Statistically for his career, he has shot and scored about as well as Bane if you match up the seasons to when they were the same age.  He isn't as big but 6'-3" and 200 lbs is big enough to play in the NBA.  All reports are that Bane is a much better defender and I don't doubt that.  Simons will be playing for a contract.  Hopefully he plays well enough to generate some value.

Two of the players were obvious given the discussion player A (Bane) and C (Sexton) and you are correct player B is Jaylen Brown.  Per your request, I added player D (Simons) above and I also added some advanced stats. 

Simons is on an expiring contract and he doesn't have a good reputation.  Assuming Stevens can get a deal done, it will be similar to the Sexton deal and more specifically the KP deal (save a lot of money but don't get any players or picks of value).  If Simons were more tradeable, the Blazers wouldn't have done the Holiday trade.

You are just wrong here. Holliday had significant value around the league, and the Blazers had to give up Simons, who is a really high level scorer and shooter, and 2 seconds to get him. Holiday was not a dump trade. It was a value trade.

We are going to see how this will work out, but all the naysayers on here will be wrong.

I didn't say Holiday was a dump trade.  I said the Blazers wouldn't have done that trade if Simons were worth more.  Holiday is better than Simons but his big contract is a drag on his value and tradeability.  The Blazers also knew that Holiday doesn't want to play for Portland from the 1st time he was traded there.  Stevens could have gotten more player/pick value for Holiday but he was focused on expiring contracts in return to get off the out-year money. 

[keevsnick]

The difference between Bane and guys like Simons and Sexton is defense. EPM isn't perfect, but it had Simons in the 5% (better than 5% of qualifying players) in terms of defensive EPM. Bane was in the 66%. Sexton was in the 3%. Thats the difference between a above average defender and literally two of the worst defenders in the league.

What teams are paying for in Bane is a guy of similar offense impact to these offensive guards but locked up for multiple years and massively better defensively.

In other words: Bane really isn't a similar player to a guy like Simons or Sexton.

[liam]

The difference between Bane and guys like Simons and Sexton is defense. EPM isn't perfect, but it had Simons in the 5% (better than 5% of qualifying players) in terms of defensive EPM. Bane was in the 66%. Sexton was in the 3%. Thats the difference between a above average defender and literally two of the worst defenders in the league.

What teams are paying for in Bane is a guy of similar offense impact to these offensive guards but locked up for multiple years and massively better defensively.

In other words: Bane really isn't a similar player to a guy like Simons or Sexton.

Too many people only care about one side of the ball.

[jambr380]

The thing with Simons is that we aren't necessarily stuck with him, but I doubt we're going to get much of value back for him.

It could be something as simple as Simons for Smart. Both on expiring contracts, but Boston saves $6M in the deal. Or it could be two players making a combined $22M or so and diverting one of them to another team to cut more salary.

Simons as a player is actually really good...at least offensively. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a market for him since there are so many guys in this league who do [almost] what he does. I don't think he made the jump POR was hoping for when he signed that contract, so it's likely he won't be paid as much on his next contract. That could actually be good for us if we hold on to him all year.

[radiohead]

Now reports are saying Al is deciding between the Warriors, Lakers, or retirement? I hope Al retires and comes back to sign with us when JT becomes healthy. Take a year off Big Al.

[tazzmaniac]

The thing with Simons is that we aren't necessarily stuck with him, but I doubt we're going to get much of value back for him.

It could be something as simple as Simons for Smart. Both on expiring contracts, but Boston saves $6M in the deal. Or it could be two players making a combined $22M or so and diverting one of them to another team to cut more salary.

Simons as a player is actually really good...at least offensively. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a market for him since there are so many guys in this league who do [almost] what he does. I don't think he made the jump POR was hoping for when he signed that contract, so it's likely he won't be paid as much on his next contract. That could actually be good for us if we hold on to him all year.

Definitely don't want Smart back.  Trading Simons for 2 players making 10-12M each and moving them both to other teams.  Think that would be enough to get below the tax line and keep Hauser. 

[No Nickname]

The thing with Simons is that we aren't necessarily stuck with him, but I doubt we're going to get much of value back for him.

It could be something as simple as Simons for Smart. Both on expiring contracts, but Boston saves $6M in the deal. Or it could be two players making a combined $22M or so and diverting one of them to another team to cut more salary.

Simons as a player is actually really good...at least offensively. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a market for him since there are so many guys in this league who do [almost] what he does. I don't think he made the jump POR was hoping for when he signed that contract, so it's likely he won't be paid as much on his next contract. That could actually be good for us if we hold on to him all year.

Definitely don't want Smart back.  Trading Simons for 2 players making 10-12M each and moving them both to other teams.  Think that would be enough to get below the tax line and keep Hauser.

But what if Simons has a stellar year (23/6/5 shooting 50/90/40) with the C?s and we get the 6th seed and upset the 3 seed in the first round?

I know that sounds crazy but what if?  His value would go up so much, we might want to keep him for when JT returns.

[tonydelk]

The thing with Simons is that we aren't necessarily stuck with him, but I doubt we're going to get much of value back for him.

It could be something as simple as Simons for Smart. Both on expiring contracts, but Boston saves $6M in the deal. Or it could be two players making a combined $22M or so and diverting one of them to another team to cut more salary.

Simons as a player is actually really good...at least offensively. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a market for him since there are so many guys in this league who do [almost] what he does. I don't think he made the jump POR was hoping for when he signed that contract, so it's likely he won't be paid as much on his next contract. That could actually be good for us if we hold on to him all year.

Definitely don't want Smart back.  Trading Simons for 2 players making 10-12M each and moving them both to other teams.  Think that would be enough to get below the tax line and keep Hauser.

If were going after ex. Celtics I'd rather take a chance on timelord.

[SparzWizard]

The thing with Simons is that we aren't necessarily stuck with him, but I doubt we're going to get much of value back for him.

It could be something as simple as Simons for Smart. Both on expiring contracts, but Boston saves $6M in the deal. Or it could be two players making a combined $22M or so and diverting one of them to another team to cut more salary.

Simons as a player is actually really good...at least offensively. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a market for him since there are so many guys in this league who do [almost] what he does. I don't think he made the jump POR was hoping for when he signed that contract, so it's likely he won't be paid as much on his next contract. That could actually be good for us if we hold on to him all year.

Definitely don't want Smart back.  Trading Simons for 2 players making 10-12M each and moving them both to other teams.  Think that would be enough to get below the tax line and keep Hauser.

But what if Simons has a stellar year (23/6/5 shooting 50/90/40) with the C?s and we get the 6th seed and upset the 3 seed in the first round?

I know that sounds crazy but what if?  His value would go up so much, we might want to keep him for when JT returns.

Who's the 3 seed? New York? With Mike Brown as their competent head coach now?

We can't contend with our current front-court roster

[keevsnick]

The thing with Simons is that we aren't necessarily stuck with him, but I doubt we're going to get much of value back for him.

It could be something as simple as Simons for Smart. Both on expiring contracts, but Boston saves $6M in the deal. Or it could be two players making a combined $22M or so and diverting one of them to another team to cut more salary.

Simons as a player is actually really good...at least offensively. Unfortunately, there just doesn't seem to be much of a market for him since there are so many guys in this league who do [almost] what he does. I don't think he made the jump POR was hoping for when he signed that contract, so it's likely he won't be paid as much on his next contract. That could actually be good for us if we hold on to him all year.

Definitely don't want Smart back.  Trading Simons for 2 players making 10-12M each and moving them both to other teams.  Think that would be enough to get below the tax line and keep Hauser.

But what if Simons has a stellar year (23/6/5 shooting 50/90/40) with the C?s and we get the 6th seed and upset the 3 seed in the first round?

I know that sounds crazy but what if?  His value would go up so much, we might want to keep him for when JT returns.

The problem is if he has a stellar year then he's going to get paid, probably more than the Celtics want to pay another perimeter option. Right now there projects to be a ecent amount of cap space around the league next summer.