Author Topic: Our bigs going forward  (Read 65140 times)

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Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #180 on: Yesterday at 01:05:45 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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It is tough to know.  Is Simons closer to Bane or Sexton.  Bane got way more than I would have expected, Sexton way less.  No need to trade Simons in the near term.  We have until the deadline.

As to Kuzma, I would rather have Kuzma than Simons but he has 2 seasons left on his deal.  That could be viewed as a plus or a minus.  I think BOS is better served by the expiring deal for now.

He isn?t close to Bane. That?s why Memphis got a haul when he was traded. Definitely comparable to Sexton; though. Just worse defensively.

Bane can play defense and he's a solid brick of a player. Neither Sexton or Simons is close to Bane.

I've never been impressed with Bane's defense. He's not bad, but he's also not good. He's very average and he does get picked on in big games by bigger and/or quicker players.

Sexton is decent on-ball defender, but not a very good team defender. Simons is bad. But then again, that's why they won't get as much of a return if they were traded. Offensively, I think Simons is closer to Bane than people realize.

So much of player development is the environment they find themselves in. Simons might find himself in a great situation this year and be given the opportunity to level up.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #181 on: Yesterday at 01:54:49 PM »

Offline JBcat

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It is tough to know.  Is Simons closer to Bane or Sexton.  Bane got way more than I would have expected, Sexton way less.  No need to trade Simons in the near term.  We have until the deadline.

As to Kuzma, I would rather have Kuzma than Simons but he has 2 seasons left on his deal.  That could be viewed as a plus or a minus.  I think BOS is better served by the expiring deal for now.

He isn?t close to Bane. That?s why Memphis got a haul when he was traded. Definitely comparable to Sexton; though. Just worse defensively.

Bane can play defense and he's a solid brick of a player. Neither Sexton or Simons is close to Bane.

I've never been impressed with Bane's defense. He's not bad, but he's also not good. He's very average and he does get picked on in big games by bigger and/or quicker players.

Sexton is decent on-ball defender, but not a very good team defender. Simons is bad. But then again, that's why they won't get as much of a return if they were traded. Offensively, I think Simons is closer to Bane than people realize.

So much of player development is the environment they find themselves in. Simons might find himself in a great situation this year and be given the opportunity to level up.


I would take Bane over Simons but partly why Bane got a haul is he is signed for several more years and Simons is expiring. It might not even be such a haul in the end as I expect the draft picks to be in the 20s and you need to start getting a little lucky at that point. Even at Jrue?s advanced age he is still a very good basketball player and a winner. Portland could have just valued him highly.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #182 on: Yesterday at 02:07:49 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I know, Bane is the better player overall, but is there really as much difference as the trade packages would suggest?

For Bane, MEM got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round draft picks, and a first-round pick swap.  That is a Bridges level trade.

For Collin Sexton and a 2030 second-round pick, UTA got Jusuf Nurkić, that is essentially nothing.

Bane, age 27, has 4 more years for about $163M

Sexton, age 26, is expiring at $18,975,000.

If you compare their stats, they are not that far apart.  Bane is a more efficient shooter overall, including from 3, but how is there that much difference in the packages?  Simons is closer to Sexton for sure based on scoring stats.

I don't expect that Simons will return a couple of useful players and 4 picks like Bane, that feels like an overpay even for Bane.  But I think we can do better than having to attach a pick to dump him for a lumbering big who probably isn't a starter.  The Sexton deal has probably poisoned the market for Simons in the near term.  Feels like we can get something for him, even a TPE may be valuable to get a big next sesaon.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #183 on: Yesterday at 02:28:36 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #184 on: Yesterday at 02:42:49 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.

We've had some pretty bad ones after Al left and before he got here the first time - Kornet (before he figured it out), old Tristan Thompson, Theis, old Amir Williams, Sullinger (who couldn't stay on the court after he left us), Tyler Zeller, etc.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #185 on: Yesterday at 02:53:11 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.

I'm kinda' interested to see what Joe's rotations look like. I think both Garza and Niang can be very productive in the box scores and pretty annoying for opposing teams to play.

Meanwhile, I think Queta could be a double-double machine if he earns the 25 minutes a game.

And as I've already said, I've got pretty green-tinted glasses on about Williams. He won't be a consistent contributor, but I think he could flash.

I mean, the opportunity is there for these guys to set their career on a new trajectory. They could earn themselves a decent next paycheck if they do well.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #186 on: Yesterday at 03:18:29 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.

I'm kinda' interested to see what Joe's rotations look like. I think both Garza and Niang can be very productive in the box scores and pretty annoying for opposing teams to play.

Meanwhile, I think Queta could be a double-double machine if he earns the 25 minutes a game.

And as I've already said, I've got pretty green-tinted glasses on about Williams. He won't be a consistent contributor, but I think he could flash.

I mean, the opportunity is there for these guys to set their career on a new trajectory. They could earn themselves a decent next paycheck if they do well.
Those are some extra thick glasses with a triple coat of green tint. 

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #187 on: Yesterday at 03:48:31 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.

I'm kinda' interested to see what Joe's rotations look like. I think both Garza and Niang can be very productive in the box scores and pretty annoying for opposing teams to play.

Meanwhile, I think Queta could be a double-double machine if he earns the 25 minutes a game.

And as I've already said, I've got pretty green-tinted glasses on about Williams. He won't be a consistent contributor, but I think he could flash.

I mean, the opportunity is there for these guys to set their career on a new trajectory. They could earn themselves a decent next paycheck if they do well.

Amari Williams may not be that much worse than Queta, which I know  is kind of a back handed compliment.  I see the best case for 2025-26 is that the center rotation is 2 bigs that would be considered almost serviceable as bench players (Queta and Williams) and a really good garbage time big (Garza).

The PF rotation is even worse.  The only hope is that Tillman bounces back to something close to the player he was in MEM just a few seasons ago.  Niang is undersized to be a PF and not that good.  Minott is barely still in the league at all and not really a PF either.

Likely we play a lot with the OKC approach, 4 guards and a 7-footer.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #188 on: Yesterday at 03:57:18 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.

I'm kinda' interested to see what Joe's rotations look like. I think both Garza and Niang can be very productive in the box scores and pretty annoying for opposing teams to play.

Meanwhile, I think Queta could be a double-double machine if he earns the 25 minutes a game.

And as I've already said, I've got pretty green-tinted glasses on about Williams. He won't be a consistent contributor, but I think he could flash.

I mean, the opportunity is there for these guys to set their career on a new trajectory. They could earn themselves a decent next paycheck if they do well.

Amari Williams may not be that much worse than Queta, which I know  is kind of a back handed compliment.  I see the best case for 2025-26 is that the center rotation is 2 bigs that would be considered almost serviceable as bench players (Queta and Williams) and a really good garbage time big (Garza).

The PF rotation is even worse.  The only hope is that Tillman bounces back to something close to the player he was in MEM just a few seasons ago.  Niang is undersized to be a PF and not that good.  Minott is barely still in the league at all and not really a PF either.

Likely we play a lot with the OKC approach, 4 guards and a 7-footer.

If you are relying on a guy taken #46 on a two-way contract to be even a serviceable bench player in year one you are probably in a very bad spot.

Amari Williams might be good, but the most likely outcome for him this year is that he gives you close to nothing because that's what most late second rounders give you.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #189 on: Yesterday at 04:06:48 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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I know, Bane is the better player overall, but is there really as much difference as the trade packages would suggest?

For Bane, MEM got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round draft picks, and a first-round pick swap.  That is a Bridges level trade.

For Collin Sexton and a 2030 second-round pick, UTA got Jusuf Nurkić, that is essentially nothing.

Bane, age 27, has 4 more years for about $163M

Sexton, age 26, is expiring at $18,975,000.

If you compare their stats, they are not that far apart.  Bane is a more efficient shooter overall, including from 3, but how is there that much difference in the packages?  Simons is closer to Sexton for sure based on scoring stats.

I don't expect that Simons will return a couple of useful players and 4 picks like Bane, that feels like an overpay even for Bane.  But I think we can do better than having to attach a pick to dump him for a lumbering big who probably isn't a starter.  The Sexton deal has probably poisoned the market for Simons in the near term.  Feels like we can get something for him, even a TPE may be valuable to get a big next sesaon.
Regarding the Bane deal, KCP and Anthony were negative assets.  The Grizz are already trying to trade Anthony.  Other than possibly the Suns 2026 pick, none of the 1st rounders are likely to be lottery picks and the pick swap probably won't happen.  Memphis was also desperate to free up salary so they could overpay JJJ.  Finally trading players, even good ones, on expiring contracts don't provide much value unless the player agrees to an extension. 

Here are 3 players stats from last season.  Obviously one season doesn't represent a player's full worth but how would you rank them and how much separation would you have between them?
 
Player         A                  B                   C
Games       69                63                  63
MPG         32.0             34.3               27.9
Pts           19.2             22.2               18.4
Reb            6.1              5.8                 2.7
Ast             5.3              4.5                 4.2
Stl              1.2              1.2                 0.7
Blk             0.4              0.3                 0.1
TO             2.4               2.6                 2.5
FG%        48.4              46.3               48.0
3P%         39.2              32.4               40.6
FT%         89.4              76.4               86.5
EFG%       56.5              51.5               54.3
USG%       23.6              28.9              27.0


Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #190 on: Yesterday at 04:17:13 PM »

Offline Birdman

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Niang / Tillman / Minott
Queta / Garza / Williams

Im trying to think of a worse NBA frontcourt in the past decade, but none are coming to mind.
[/quote unfortunately I have to agree with you
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #191 on: Yesterday at 05:12:26 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I know, Bane is the better player overall, but is there really as much difference as the trade packages would suggest?

For Bane, MEM got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round draft picks, and a first-round pick swap.  That is a Bridges level trade.

For Collin Sexton and a 2030 second-round pick, UTA got Jusuf Nurkić, that is essentially nothing.

Bane, age 27, has 4 more years for about $163M

Sexton, age 26, is expiring at $18,975,000.

If you compare their stats, they are not that far apart.  Bane is a more efficient shooter overall, including from 3, but how is there that much difference in the packages?  Simons is closer to Sexton for sure based on scoring stats.

I don't expect that Simons will return a couple of useful players and 4 picks like Bane, that feels like an overpay even for Bane.  But I think we can do better than having to attach a pick to dump him for a lumbering big who probably isn't a starter.  The Sexton deal has probably poisoned the market for Simons in the near term.  Feels like we can get something for him, even a TPE may be valuable to get a big next sesaon.
Regarding the Bane deal, KCP and Anthony were negative assets.  The Grizz are already trying to trade Anthony.  Other than possibly the Suns 2026 pick, none of the 1st rounders are likely to be lottery picks and the pick swap probably won't happen.  Memphis was also desperate to free up salary so they could overpay JJJ.  Finally trading players, even good ones, on expiring contracts don't provide much value unless the player agrees to an extension. 

Here are 3 players stats from last season.  Obviously one season doesn't represent a player's full worth but how would you rank them and how much separation would you have between them?
 
Player         A                  B                   C
Games       69                63                  63
MPG         32.0             34.3               27.9
Pts           19.2             22.2               18.4
Reb            6.1              5.8                 2.7
Ast             5.3              4.5                 4.2
Stl              1.2              1.2                 0.7
Blk             0.4              0.3                 0.1
TO             2.4               2.6                 2.5
FG%        48.4              46.3               48.0
3P%         39.2              32.4               40.6
FT%         89.4              76.4               86.5
EFG%       56.5              51.5               54.3
USG%       23.6              28.9              27.0

Unfortunately for this game, I think I know who each player is.  By these numbers, you would think that Player B could never be a finals MVP, but I think he was.  More germane to this discussion, player A and player C look similar in terms of scoring.  One rebounds much better and probably plays better defense but the scoring stats are similar.  If you had put Simons stats in there instead of Player B, his scoring stats would look similar to Players A and C.  2024-25 was a down year for Simons relative to his career numbers.

I think Bane will be a really good pick up for Orlando, but right now, it appears to me that they overpaid.  Not sure who they were bidding against.  Of course, I thought that BOS overpaid for White when they got him, a lot of people did.  Sometimes overpaying works out just fine.

As to Simons, I don't know his game all that well.  I believe he will be traded and that the deal for BOS will be something between what MEM got for Bane and what UTA got for Sexton.  Statistically for his career, he has shot and scored about as well as Bane if you match up the seasons to when they were the same age.  He isn't as big but 6'-3" and 200 lbs is big enough to play in the NBA.  All reports are that Bane is a much better defender and I don't doubt that.  Simons will be playing for a contract.  Hopefully he plays well enough to generate some value.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #192 on: Yesterday at 05:20:10 PM »

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I was listening to Road Trippin' podcast with Perk, C Frye, and Richard Jefferson. Their reaction to the Jrue for A Simons trade was positive for Boston but they also called A Simons "the worst defender in the NBA". Multiple times.

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #193 on: Yesterday at 05:35:02 PM »

Offline ChillyWilly

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I was listening to Road Trippin' podcast with Perk, C Frye, and Richard Jefferson. Their reaction to the Jrue for A Simons trade was positive for Boston but they also called A Simons "the worst defender in the NBA". Multiple times.

I've watched a bunch of Portland games from last season since the trade trying to see if he's just a lazy defender or slow/poor positioning. I think it's both and if he does make it to the season start many of us will be punching the air over his defense.
ok fine

Re: Our bigs going forward
« Reply #194 on: Yesterday at 05:46:42 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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I know, Bane is the better player overall, but is there really as much difference as the trade packages would suggest?

For Bane, MEM got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four unprotected first-round draft picks, and a first-round pick swap.  That is a Bridges level trade.

For Collin Sexton and a 2030 second-round pick, UTA got Jusuf Nurkić, that is essentially nothing.

Bane, age 27, has 4 more years for about $163M

Sexton, age 26, is expiring at $18,975,000.

If you compare their stats, they are not that far apart.  Bane is a more efficient shooter overall, including from 3, but how is there that much difference in the packages?  Simons is closer to Sexton for sure based on scoring stats.

I don't expect that Simons will return a couple of useful players and 4 picks like Bane, that feels like an overpay even for Bane.  But I think we can do better than having to attach a pick to dump him for a lumbering big who probably isn't a starter.  The Sexton deal has probably poisoned the market for Simons in the near term.  Feels like we can get something for him, even a TPE may be valuable to get a big next sesaon.
Regarding the Bane deal, KCP and Anthony were negative assets.  The Grizz are already trying to trade Anthony.  Other than possibly the Suns 2026 pick, none of the 1st rounders are likely to be lottery picks and the pick swap probably won't happen.  Memphis was also desperate to free up salary so they could overpay JJJ.  Finally trading players, even good ones, on expiring contracts don't provide much value unless the player agrees to an extension. 

Here are 3 players stats from last season.  Obviously one season doesn't represent a player's full worth but how would you rank them and how much separation would you have between them?
 
Player         A                  B                   C                D
Games       69                63                  63              70
MPG         32.0             34.3               27.9            32.7
Pts           19.2             22.2               18.4            19.3
Reb            6.1              5.8                 2.7              2.7
Ast             5.3              4.5                 4.2              4.8
Stl              1.2              1.2                 0.7              0.9 
Blk             0.4              0.3                 0.1              0.1
TO             2.4               2.6                 2.5              2.0
FG%        48.4              46.3               48.0            42.6
3P%         39.2              32.4               40.6           36.3
FT%         89.4              76.4               86.5           90.2
EFG%       56.5              51.5               54.3           52.1
USG%       23.6              28.9              27.0           24.6

OWS          4.0               2.3                 2.5             2.9
DWS          2.6               2.9                -0.1             1.2
WS            6.5               5.2                 2.4              4.2
WS/48       .142             .115               .066           .087
OBPM        2.6                .4                  1.7              1.5
DBPM        0.6              -.4                  -2.3             -1.5
BPM          3.2               0.0                 -0.6             -0.1
VORP        2.9               1.1                   0.6             1.1


Unfortunately for this game, I think I know who each player is.  By these numbers, you would think that Player B could never be a finals MVP, but I think he was.  More germane to this discussion, player A and player C look similar in terms of scoring.  One rebounds much better and probably plays better defense but the scoring stats are similar.  If you had put Simons stats in there instead of Player B, his scoring stats would look similar to Players A and C.  2024-25 was a down year for Simons relative to his career numbers.

I think Bane will be a really good pick up for Orlando, but right now, it appears to me that they overpaid.  Not sure who they were bidding against.  Of course, I thought that BOS overpaid for White when they got him, a lot of people did.  Sometimes overpaying works out just fine.

As to Simons, I don't know his game all that well.  I believe he will be traded and that the deal for BOS will be something between what MEM got for Bane and what UTA got for Sexton.  Statistically for his career, he has shot and scored about as well as Bane if you match up the seasons to when they were the same age.  He isn't as big but 6'-3" and 200 lbs is big enough to play in the NBA.  All reports are that Bane is a much better defender and I don't doubt that.  Simons will be playing for a contract.  Hopefully he plays well enough to generate some value.
Two of the players were obvious given the discussion player A (Bane) and C (Sexton) and you are correct player B is Jaylen Brown.  Per your request, I added player D (Simons) above and I also added some advanced stats. 

Simons is on an expiring contract and he doesn't have a good reputation.  Assuming Stevens can get a deal done, it will be similar to the Sexton deal and more specifically the KP deal (save a lot of money but don't get any players or picks of value).  If Simons were more tradeable, the Blazers wouldn't have done the Holiday trade.