Luka to Lakers for AD

[Kernewek]

I've had some time to think about it and I get it from Dallas' perspective. I'm not saying I agree with it - but I can see the thinking.

Nico identified Anthony Davis as the one guy he'd ever trade Luka for. Once he figured that out, there isn't much need to engage other teams. If AD is the guy, then Lakers were the play. Could they have gotten more assets like picks? Probably, but if the goal is to win now and you think AD is the piece to get you there, would you let a deal blow up over a future pick you don't care about when now is the priority? And there is some urgency since Luka is eligible to sign the extension this offseason.

Speaking of - I also understand not wanting to give Luka that supermax. If he can't get motivated to get in shape after losing the Finals, I don't think he's going to be more motivated after you hand him a contract that guarantees him $345 million.

This is a good post, and I think it makes sense, except that I think (pretending to be Dallas) that if now is the priority, I don't think I can reasonably suggest that trading Doncic is a good idea.

That's debatable if you look at it from Dallas' perspective.

Luka is great, no question about that. But he's injury prone too. It's far more likely that both players will be injured than not by the time the playoffs roll around, so you have to guess which one is more likely to be available. Because availability is the best ability, right? AD played more games last season than Luka. This season, AD has played 42 games compared to Luka's 22. Most of AD's injuries are random freak injuries, Luka keeps dealing with lower extremity issues and his conditioning isn't doing him any favors.

Again, I'm not saying I agree with the trade. I think Dallas should've asked for more from the Lakers for sure. But I can also see the line of thinking here once I get past the initial shock and emotion.

I can see the line of thinking, I just think it's bad thinking.  Based on what we know, it doesn't make sense on the court, it doesn't make sense off the court, it only makes sense if the new ownership doesn't want to spend the money to make the team a contender.

A Lakers fan on, I think Reddit, compared the trade to asking for an Xbox for Christmas and receiving a Lamborghini instead. It's hard to argue with that.

[Who]

Mark Cuban has confirmed he had no involvement in the trade.

He owns 27% of the Mavs still. He was meant to still be in charge of basketball operations after the sale; I guess not since he wasn't involved in this deal.

[Kernewek]

Zach Lowe had some thoughts:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqWXoRNJ0oA

Here's a couple of generated overviews (from the transcript) on the front office wagers & and timing, which I think are pretty interesting aspects of the discussion (though not that revelatory)

Based on the transcript, the timing of this mid-season trade is particularly problematic for several reasons:

Limited Market Access
Mid-season trades are harder to execute because contending teams are focused on their current success
The speaker specifically mentions several teams that might have made compelling offers in the off-season but couldn't mid-season:
Houston (currently the #2 seed, unlikely to disrupt their team)
Memphis (timing would be challenging during their season)
Minnesota (potential Anthony Edwards package)
Oklahoma City (has numerous draft picks)
San Antonio (just acquired De'Aaron Fox)

No Immediate Pressure
The speaker emphasizes there was no urgent need to make this trade now because:

Luka hadn't requested a trade
The supermax extension concern is a 2026 issue
If worried about this season due to Luka's health, they could "punt this season" and wait

Future Flexibility
Waiting for the off-season could have provided:

Teams reassessing after playoff disappointments (e.g., "maybe Houston loses in the first round" and realizes they need a primary offensive creator)
Possibility of more complex multi-team trades
Teams having more time to put together "Godfather offers" with multiple picks and assets
More flexibility to triangulate picks from third or fourth teams


Current Season Impact
The timing affects both teams' current seasons:

Mavericks were "hovering a few games over .500"
The team had already traded away various picks and assets to build around Luka
They're now integrating major pieces mid-season
The Lakers need to find complementary pieces, particularly at center


Off-season Advantages
The speaker suggests waiting for the off-season could have provided:

More time for due diligence
Better opportunity to canvas the league without losing leverage
Ability to structure more complex deals
Teams having more clarity about their future directions after playoff results
More flexibility in combining picks and assets under salary cap rules

The overarching point is that making such a franchise-altering trade mid-season unnecessarily limited their options and potential return for a player of Luka's caliber.

Based on the transcript, the Mavericks' front office is making several high-stakes wagers in this trade:

Organizational Assessment of Luka
They're betting that Luka's conditioning issues and off-court habits are serious enough concerns to justify trading him at age 25
They're effectively saying these issues would prevent him from maximizing his supermax contract extension (worth approximately $400 million)
They're wagering that these problems would worsen rather than improve with time


The Anthony Davis Bet
They're betting on a 31-year-old Davis maintaining his current level of play for several more years
They're pairing him with Kyrie Irving (also 31) as their core, creating an older foundation
They're wagering that Davis's recent health and durability will continue, despite his earlier career injury concerns


Fan Relations Risk
As the speaker notes, this is "one of the hugest wagers any front office has made on its own credibility with its own fan base ever" because:

They traded away a generational talent who was beloved by fans
They did so without apparent external pressure (no trade request)
They did it without exploring the market for better offers
They're betting fans will eventually understand and accept their rationale


Legacy Risk
The front office is putting their entire legacy on the line because:
If Luka continues to excel and potentially improves his conditioning with the Lakers, they'll be criticized for years
If Davis declines or gets injured, the trade will look even worse
They've tied their future to older stars rather than building around a 25-year-old superstar


Competitive Window
They're wagering that a Davis/Irving core can compete at a high level immediately
They're accepting a potentially shorter competitive window versus having Luka for the next decade
They're betting they can build a successful team around Davis and Irving despite limited future assets

The speaker suggests this is particularly risky because it's unprecedented to trade a player of Luka's caliber at his age without being forced to do so, and the Mavericks are essentially betting against a player who has already proven to be one of the best offensive players in NBA history.

[Donoghus]

Holy crap.

https://x.com/_abigaiiiil/status/1886854443158700529

Abby Jones
@_abigaiiiil
The Dallas Mavericks have offered refunds for the remaining home games this season to fans who have canceled their season tickets plans. 

It's valued around $2,000.

[byennie]

I'm not gonna lie, all trade and salary cap discussions aside, I'm happy that a player was at some level held accountable for being entitled and lazy, yet expecting to get paid almost half a billion dollars. Did they mess up not getting an offseason haul for an MVP level player? Quite possibly. But they did make a statement about integrity and consequences. If a 25 year-old NBA player with unlimited resources can't even put down a hamburger and workout during their absolute prime years, there should be *some* consequence.

I know ownership is far from innocent in the NBA, but we need SOME checks on the players, just like Butler in Miami getting suspended.

To be clear, I don't think Luka is some sort of terrible person or necessarily deserved this more than every other player. Maybe it was an overreaction by the Mavs... but I'm not mad at the principle

[Vermont Green]

Holy crap.

https://x.com/_abigaiiiil/status/1886854443158700529

Abby Jones
@_abigaiiiil
The Dallas Mavericks have offered refunds for the remaining home games this season to fans who have canceled their season tickets plans. 

It's valued around $2,000.

Wow, I wonder whose call that is.  My guess is that they are able to resell most of the refunded tickets, but it is still a huge concession to the fans.

[Vermont Green]

I'm not gonna lie, all trade and salary cap discussions aside, I'm happy that a player was at some level held accountable for being entitled and lazy, yet expecting to get paid almost half a billion dollars. Did they mess up not getting an offseason haul for an MVP level player? Quite possibly. But they did make a statement about integrity and consequences. If a 25 year-old NBA player with unlimited resources can't even put down a hamburger and workout during their absolute prime years, there should be *some* consequence.

I know ownership is far from innocent in the NBA, but we need SOME checks on the players, just like Butler in Miami getting suspended.

To be clear, I don't think Luka is some sort of terrible person or necessarily deserved this more than every other player. Maybe it was an overreaction by the Mavs... but I'm not mad at the principle

I am with you.  Part of me respects DAL for having the guts to do this.  As you say, they probably could have gotten way more but the fundamentals of this are still that they didn't want to pay and underconditioned dough boy a super max deal.

I don't think they did this on principle though, at least not mostly.  I think they made a financial calculation that there was simply too much injury risk to give him that kind of deal.  I can't disagree with that but I think they overrated Davis at this point of his career.  This would look way better if they had gotten say Jimmy Butler and 5 first round picks or something like that. 

As it is, they have gone from all their eggs in Luka's basket to now all in Davis'.  If Davis breaks down, which is actually likely based on recent history, then where are they?  Even if Luka breaks down too and kind if vindicates that part of the deal, if Davis breaks down, they have nothing to show for it.  If they had made a better deal, they would have years of first round picks to show for it, no matter what.

[green_bballers13]

To be clear, I don't think Luka is some sort of terrible person or necessarily deserved this more than every other player. Maybe it was an overreaction by the Mavs... but I'm not mad at the principle

Luka was anointed to be a legend at 17, much like Lebron. He has more talent than everyone and knows it. Watching him plod along to the basket while keeping a defender guessing is a work of art. I think he's a basketball genius.

Lebron will take him under his wing, and I fully expect Luka to lose the baby fat over time. Maybe they can get Zion in to LA on the same program.

In the meantime, I can't wait for the Celtics to play this porous Lakers defense on March 8th.

[Vermont Green]

To be clear, I don't think Luka is some sort of terrible person or necessarily deserved this more than every other player. Maybe it was an overreaction by the Mavs... but I'm not mad at the principle

Luka was anointed to be a legend at 17, much like Lebron. He has more talent than everyone and knows it. Watching him plod along to the basket while keeping a defender guessing is a work of art. I think he's a basketball genius.

Lebron will take him under his wing, and I fully expect Luka to lose the baby fat over time. Maybe they can get Zion in to LA on the same program.

In the meantime, I can't wait for the Celtics to play this porous Lakers defense on March 8th.

Interesting to compare Luka to LeBron, good point.  But LeBron was never underconditioned like Luka is.  He was always ready to play.  I am not so sure that Luka is going to accept being under anyone's wing, even LeBron's.  Luka will need to decide for himself that he is willing to put in the work to be great.  I am not so sure he will.  DAL clearly does't think so.  It seems Luka thinks he is great just the way he is.

[bdm860]

Lebron will take him under his wing, and I fully expect Luka to lose the baby fat over time. Maybe they can get Zion in to LA on the same program.

This is one of my biggest fears.

I was actually down on the Mavs going into the season, thought they'd underperform and wouldn't sniff the Finals again. But now this trade to the Lakers and working with LeBron could be a wakeup call turning Luka into a more motivated, more fit, more serious version of himself. The Mavs were stuck with fat Luka, and the Lakers end up with svelte Luka.

Are we about to see Luka with the Kevin Love transformation.



Hopefully not.

[Who]

Here?s what the framework for this stunning trade looked like based on what I?ve learned yesterday:

* Nico Harrison admitted he spoke only with Lakers GM Rob Pelinka and that they kept the discussions secret from everyone else, including Jason Kidd.

* Dončić did not request a trade, nor did he give the Mavericks any signals that he wouldn?t sign his next supermax extension. Harrison confirmed that. In his statement, Dončić said he had hoped to spend his career in Dallas. He was even in the process of investing in a new house in Dallas.

* Team employees typically involved in processing such major decisions had no knowledge of the trade.

* Harrison made it clear that he alone was making the decisions, while Kidd referred to it as "Nico?s vision."

* Both Harrison and Kidd admitted this was a win-now move.

Based on all of the above, one can conclude that moving on from a five-time All-NBA First Team, five-time All-Star was Harrison's idea?one he was determined to execute without involving or hearing any other voice that might dissuade him or, more importantly, alert anyone who could prevent it from happening.

Ego is the enemy

I borrowed this title from one of my favorite books by Ryan Holiday, a bestselling author, marketer, and modern Stoic known for his work on philosophy, strategy, and personal growth. Holiday explains that introducing ego into a situation often prevents us from being rational, objective, and clear headed.

A person close to the situation described this trade as the ultimate Harrison power trip, calling him a power-hungry man.

Another observer said Harrison removed anyone who held a different view. I'?m not close enough to say there's no other perspective on this situation. These are the views of people who either left or don't necessarily align with the current vision.

But what's clear is that there is a Nico vision, and Dončić might be the last and by far the biggest piece that didn't fit into it.

There is a well-documented list of people close to Dončić who have left or were forced out since Harrison took over.

* Scott Tomlin, the team?s longtime VP of basketball communications.
* Casey Smith, the longtime athletic trainer, widely regarded as one of Dončić?s closest allies in the organization.
* Igor Koko?kov, an assistant coach during Kidd?s first year, was another departure. He coached Dončić to a EuroBasket title in 2017 and served as his pregame workout partner?a role he took over from Orlando Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley, another voice Dončić deeply respected.
* Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Boban Marjanović, three players Dončić respected and was close with, all left the Mavericks during Harrison?s tenure.
* Another person who had a short tenure in Dallas, not necessarily from Dončić's circle but well-respected around the league, was Dennis Lindsey, who left for Detroit in the summer.

Great article from substack

https://digginbasketball.substack.com/p/the-day-after-luka-doncic-trade

I agree with what this guy is saying. This is a huge power trip by Nico Harrison.

[Who]

The Dallas Mavericks lost 700k followers on Instagram as soon as the Luka trade news dropped!

[Who]

So I heard before that Luka had just gotten a $15mil mansion in Dallas just before this trade. What I hadn't heard, that Stephen A Smith said, was that Anthony Davis also just purchased a mansion in Bel Air. His mansion cost $32 million!

Imagine just spending $32 million on a house and then getting traded out of town!

[Donoghus]

So I heard before that Luka had just gotten a $15mil mansion in Dallas just before this trade. What I hadn't heard, that Stephen A Smith said, was that Anthony Davis also just purchased a mansion in Bel Air. His mansion cost $32 million!

Imagine just spending $32 million on a house and then getting traded out of town!

Hope he kept the receipt

[Who]

Some Kyrie tidbits

* Kyrie was working out in Cleveland when he found out about the trade by seeing it comes across a TV screen. Nobody told him.

* Kyrie had a close bond with Markieff Morris who was also traded. Apparently, Markieff was the only guy who stood by him on the Nets when Kyrie was having problems with the management & ownership there. Kyrie was so struck by Markieff's gesture that he said Markieff must be part of any trade a team makes to acquire him. It was also a big reason why Dallas brought back Markieff this summer on a minimum contract. They did this to appease Kyrie. Markieff as a non-playing 15th man towel waiver. Markieff Morris was his closest friend on the Mavs.

* Luka was the reason Kyrie stayed in / re-signed with Dallas.

* Kyrie did not show up to the game to cheer from the bench after hearing the news. He was in Cleveland for the game but did not attend.

Kyrie has a player option this summer. The FA market isn't good in terms of what type of teams have cap room so staying in Dallas is likely the go-to option. He will be a FA the following year though. I would not be surprised if he leaves then.

Looks like he is happy enough with both the team and AD to give this a go ... but I wouldn't be surprised to see him bolt at the first sign of trouble / setback.

Kyrie had previously been looking for a contract extension worth $50+mil a year.