Time To Panic?

[Phantom255x]

[Silas]

We've seen this before....

67-15 Warriors went 58-24 the following season and won the finals again

Let's relax and wait for the playoffs.

[Goldstar88]

We've seen this before....

67-15 Warriors went 58-24 the following season and won the finals again

Let's relax and wait for the playoffs.

Yeah, but it?s more fun to freak out every time they lose! 

[Neurotic Guy]

Well I hope Brad isn?t panicking. 

[tenn_smoothie]

I am reviving this thread because, as a fan, I feel it is time to panic. That is my right but obviously Brad cannot afford to panic and do something he will regret in a year.

I do not like the brand of basketball being put out there. I feel it is very predictable which is the kiss of death in a competitive sport. I also sense that the players are trying to win on the offensive end and going through the motions on defense. The pressure to repeat is getting to them.

You are correct, the team is repetitive and predictable.
But how does the pressure to repeat equate to playing the bad brand of basketball we are seeing ?
I would think pressure would result in more effort, at least on defense.
As for the gawd-awful offense we run, night after night, well that's on Joe.

[SparzWizard]

We've seen this before....

67-15 Warriors went 58-24 the following season and won the finals again

Let's relax and wait for the playoffs.

We've also seen this before where the C's were facing a #3 seeded 76ers team where they trailed the series 3-2 (losing 2 home games) despite having home-court advantage, and also seen this before where they faced an inferior #8 seeded Heat team and down 0-3, before losing Game 7 at the Garden.

[keevsnick]

Celtics three-point shooting:
last year/this year/since Dec 1st

Tatum: 37.6%/36.4%/34.6%
Brown: 35.4%/32.2%/30.1%
White: 39.6%/38.5%/34.6%
Holiday: 42.9%/34.5%/34.6%
Horford: 41.9%/36.0%/29.8%
Hauser: 42.2%/37.4%/41.3%
Porzingis: 37.5%/34.9%/36.0%
Pritchard: 38.5%/41.4%/38.7%

7 of their top 8 rotation players are shooting worse from three this year than last, and its been especially bad in the stretch since December 1st. Alot of the issue they are having is they just can't seem to make shots. Got to think water will eventually find its level with the shooting.

[TheReaLPuba]

Celtics three-point shooting:
last year/this year/since Dec 1st

Tatum: 37.6%/36.4%/34.6%
Brown: 35.4%/32.2%/30.1%
White: 39.6%/38.5%/34.6%
Holiday: 42.9%/34.5%/34.6%
Horford: 41.9%/36.0%/29.8%
Hauser: 42.2%/37.4%/41.3%
Porzingis: 37.5%/34.9%/36.0%
Pritchard: 38.5%/41.4%/38.7%

7 of their top 8 rotation players are shooting worse from three this year than last, and its been especially bad in the stretch since December 1st. Alot of the issue they are having is they just can't seem to make shots. Got to think water will eventually find its level with the shooting.

Only Hauser is a true 3pt shooter.


The other guys are just capable shooters.

[SCeltic34]

Celtics three-point shooting:
last year/this year/since Dec 1st

Tatum: 37.6%/36.4%/34.6%
Brown: 35.4%/32.2%/30.1%
White: 39.6%/38.5%/34.6%
Holiday: 42.9%/34.5%/34.6%
Horford: 41.9%/36.0%/29.8%
Hauser: 42.2%/37.4%/41.3%
Porzingis: 37.5%/34.9%/36.0%
Pritchard: 38.5%/41.4%/38.7%

7 of their top 8 rotation players are shooting worse from three this year than last, and its been especially bad in the stretch since December 1st. Alot of the issue they are having is they just can't seem to make shots. Got to think water will eventually find its level with the shooting.

It's likely a volume and shot quality issue.  The Celtics have been jacking up a ton of bad shots this season, all for the sake of taking more 3's per game.  We're talking off the dribble, contested 3's early in the shot clock without passing the ball.  I can understand emphasizing 3's, but they should come within the flow of a good offense.  These shots are not that.  They're bad shots.  Low percentage shots.

More driving, inside out basketball that leads to open 3's will result in better percentages. 

[Phantom255x]

I also just think the issue is, when it's a close game against a great team and the defense needs to tighten up and get stops in the 2nd half, they typically aren't able to. Same thing happened Friday night, SAC was just getting wide open looks every trip and knocking them down.

Completely different from 2024 where even in the playoffs against certain teams like Indiana and Dallas, they'd lock in defensively and even force them into scoring droughts in the 4th. This year though teams just score on us easily and generate open looks. Even if our shots are falling, it's not ideal if we're just trading baskets.

[Phantom255x]

I also just think the issue is, when it's a close game against a great team and the defense needs to tighten up and get stops in the 2nd half, they typically aren't able to. Same thing happened Friday night, SAC was just getting wide open looks every trip and knocking them down.

Completely different from 2024 where even in the playoffs against certain teams like Indiana and Dallas, they'd lock in defensively and even force them into scoring droughts in the 4th. This year though teams just score on us easily and generate open looks. Even if our shots are falling, it's not ideal if we're just trading baskets.

Literally happening again tonight. Barely survived, but can't even string together consistent stops and let NOP put up 30 in the 4th (and a lot of "trading baskets")

[keevsnick]

Celtics three-point shooting:
last year/this year/since Dec 1st

Tatum: 37.6%/36.4%/34.6%
Brown: 35.4%/32.2%/30.1%
White: 39.6%/38.5%/34.6%
Holiday: 42.9%/34.5%/34.6%
Horford: 41.9%/36.0%/29.8%
Hauser: 42.2%/37.4%/41.3%
Porzingis: 37.5%/34.9%/36.0%
Pritchard: 38.5%/41.4%/38.7%

7 of their top 8 rotation players are shooting worse from three this year than last, and its been especially bad in the stretch since December 1st. Alot of the issue they are having is they just can't seem to make shots. Got to think water will eventually find its level with the shooting.

It's likely a volume and shot quality issue.  The Celtics have been jacking up a ton of bad shots this season, all for the sake of taking more 3's per game.  We're talking off the dribble, contested 3's early in the shot clock without passing the ball.  I can understand emphasizing 3's, but they should come within the flow of a good offense.  These shots are not that.  They're bad shots.  Low percentage shots.

More driving, inside out basketball that leads to open 3's will result in better percentages.

The data doesn't really back this up either.

Looking at NBA.com/s tracking data, last year the C's took 36.8 of their 42.5 threes per game with 4+ or 6+ feet of separation from the nearest defender. Thats 86.6% of their threes were open or wide open. This year its 41.6 of 48.6 threes a game, or 85.6%. So although they are taking more threes, they've generally been the same amount of open.

What HAS changed is the make rate. Last year they were 38.8% on open threes and 41.6% on wide open threes. This year its 36.3% on open threes and 38.5% on wide open threes.

Once again the issue isn't type of shot. It isn't chucking. Its not poor decision making. It's just that they are missing shots they made last year. It's really that simple.

The team has two issues right now:

1) Shooting slump
2) Crunch time defense has been bad.

[Roy H.]

Celtics three-point shooting:
last year/this year/since Dec 1st

Tatum: 37.6%/36.4%/34.6%
Brown: 35.4%/32.2%/30.1%
White: 39.6%/38.5%/34.6%
Holiday: 42.9%/34.5%/34.6%
Horford: 41.9%/36.0%/29.8%
Hauser: 42.2%/37.4%/41.3%
Porzingis: 37.5%/34.9%/36.0%
Pritchard: 38.5%/41.4%/38.7%

7 of their top 8 rotation players are shooting worse from three this year than last, and its been especially bad in the stretch since December 1st. Alot of the issue they are having is they just can't seem to make shots. Got to think water will eventually find its level with the shooting.

It's likely a volume and shot quality issue.  The Celtics have been jacking up a ton of bad shots this season, all for the sake of taking more 3's per game.  We're talking off the dribble, contested 3's early in the shot clock without passing the ball.  I can understand emphasizing 3's, but they should come within the flow of a good offense.  These shots are not that.  They're bad shots.  Low percentage shots.

More driving, inside out basketball that leads to open 3's will result in better percentages.

The data doesn't really back this up either.

Looking at NBA.com/s tracking data, last year the C's took 36.8 of their 42.5 threes per game with 4+ or 6+ feet of separation from the nearest defender. Thats 86.6% of their threes were open or wide open. This year its 41.6 of 48.6 threes a game, or 85.6%. So although they are taking more threes, they've generally been the same amount of open.

What HAS changed is the make rate. Last year they were 38.8% on open threes and 41.6% on wide open threes. This year its 36.3% on open threes and 38.5% on wide open threes.

Once again the issue isn't type of shot. It isn't chucking. Its not poor decision making. It's just that they are missing shots they made last year. It's really that simple.

The team has two issues right now:

1) Shooting slump
2) Crunch time defense has been bad.

At the same time, we've gone from taking fewer than five contested threes per game to more than seven.  Those contested shots are taking the place inside shots.  That's probably a couple points per 100 possessions that we're giving away.

[smicker16]

I still worry more about the defense with this team as of now.  I hope that that is a situation where they can flip the switch on the defensive side and that they are conserving themselves more there.  However, I am worried that both Horford and Holiday have started their real decline on that end.  it is going to happen sooner rather than later if not now anyways.  The bigger potential drop off is KP really.  He is not that old, but you have to worry if the injuries have led to an earlier decline and if he can work himself back to where he was.  That is my biggest concern and one that I am not sure if switching a flip will solve.  And we are not going to replace him with someone better so I am just hoping he can improve and taking comfort in the fact that we won basically without him last year.

[keevsnick]

Celtics three-point shooting:
last year/this year/since Dec 1st

Tatum: 37.6%/36.4%/34.6%
Brown: 35.4%/32.2%/30.1%
White: 39.6%/38.5%/34.6%
Holiday: 42.9%/34.5%/34.6%
Horford: 41.9%/36.0%/29.8%
Hauser: 42.2%/37.4%/41.3%
Porzingis: 37.5%/34.9%/36.0%
Pritchard: 38.5%/41.4%/38.7%

7 of their top 8 rotation players are shooting worse from three this year than last, and its been especially bad in the stretch since December 1st. Alot of the issue they are having is they just can't seem to make shots. Got to think water will eventually find its level with the shooting.

It's likely a volume and shot quality issue.  The Celtics have been jacking up a ton of bad shots this season, all for the sake of taking more 3's per game.  We're talking off the dribble, contested 3's early in the shot clock without passing the ball.  I can understand emphasizing 3's, but they should come within the flow of a good offense.  These shots are not that.  They're bad shots.  Low percentage shots.

More driving, inside out basketball that leads to open 3's will result in better percentages.

The data doesn't really back this up either.

Looking at NBA.com/s tracking data, last year the C's took 36.8 of their 42.5 threes per game with 4+ or 6+ feet of separation from the nearest defender. Thats 86.6% of their threes were open or wide open. This year its 41.6 of 48.6 threes a game, or 85.6%. So although they are taking more threes, they've generally been the same amount of open.

What HAS changed is the make rate. Last year they were 38.8% on open threes and 41.6% on wide open threes. This year its 36.3% on open threes and 38.5% on wide open threes.

Once again the issue isn't type of shot. It isn't chucking. Its not poor decision making. It's just that they are missing shots they made last year. It's really that simple.

The team has two issues right now:

1) Shooting slump
2) Crunch time defense has been bad.

At the same time, we've gone from taking fewer than five contested threes per game to more than seven.  Those contested shots are taking the place inside shots.  That's probably a couple points per 100 possessions that we're giving away.

Okay, let's do the math.

Let's say two shots in the restricted area become two contested threes per game. C's shoot about 70% on restricted area shots. That would be 2.8 ppg. If you shoot two extra "tight" threes per game instead at 30% you score 1.8 ppg. So really at worst the C's are maybe sacrificing 1 ppg by skewing their shot selection more towards threes.

Their PPG has declined in raw terms 2.6ppg since last year. So even IF you think they are chucking too many threes it appears there's some greater issue besides shot selection.

I don't disagree that the C's could stand to shift their shot profile slightly back towards drives and paint shots. But the main issue remains they are shooting poorly. Lats year they shot 38.8% from three, this year 36.2%. The reason the Cav's look unbeatable this year? A 40.1% mark from three. In the last 9 years only 1 team has cracked 39.2% from three for a year, the clippers in the bubble season shot 41.1%.