Example of GSW for J Butler
They would have to trade Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, Jonathon Kuminga, and Moses Moody. That numbers still don't quite work. They are close. Maybe they can find a way to smooth it out by adding more players on both sides. Based on ESPN's trade machine, none of the combinations I have tried (adding other low contract players) have given a successful trade. They are all $100k-500k out and do not work.
But say they find a financial scenario that works:
For the Warriors, that is a lot to give up for Jimmy Butler. 4 rotation players. 2 starters in A Wiggins and Kuminga. Two good bench players in Payton II and Moody. Kuminga with some potential.
For the Heat, it is worthwhile. You would take back Wiggins' contract at $26mil in order to get Kuminga & Moody. Without Kuminga in the deal, it would not be worthwhile taking Wiggins' deal.
The Warriors have 13 legit rotation players. They are one of the few teams that could give up 4 players for 1 and make it work. Most other teams would have to decimate their supporting cast / unbalance their team. Or ask Miami to take back a low level star or non-star back as the main piece in a trade which is not in their interest. They would be better letting Jimmy walk as a FA.
Another example - Phoenix
Phoenix could offer Bradley Beal. A straight swap for Jimmy would work. But if you are Miami, do you want 3yrs (2 and a half years) of Bradley Beal or do you want the cap flexability after Jimmy leaves this summer. Is Beal worth that contract? Is Beal worth that to your team when you already have a similar albeit lesser version in Tyler Herro?
Example Cleveland
Cleveland have 3 big contracts in D Mitchell, Garland and J Allen. They would have to trade one of these guys. Mitchell is out. So Garland or J Allen. J Allen is of no appeal to MIA because they have Bam. So Garland would be the only option.
Garland & LeVert for Jimmy.
Great return for Jimmy. Garland has been an All-Star player. He is young. He is under contract for a few years. Gives them something to rebuild with. On the other hand, he is a lightweight undersized PG who struggles defensively. MIA have already struggled to make Rozier & Herro work due to defensive limitations. Garland is a worse defender than Rozier.
If you are CLE, Jimmy would give you a legit wing player and remove a defensive limitation. On the other hand, you lose a shooter when you are already limited in terms of shooting within the starting lineup + you trade a long term core piece for a 35-36yr old who wants $50mil a year on a 3-4yr deal and have E Mobley due to a big payday in 18 months time. Your team is top of the East. You probably don't do it.
Other East Teams
Orlando = KCP, C Anthony, Mo Wagner (or WCJ) for Jimmy = but why would Miami want those contracts? They would be better off in FA. KCP in particular would be a large negative contract for their rebuild.
Knicks = limited due to using non-tax payer exception. Not sure it is possible to make any trade work.
MIL = is there anything Miami would want outside of Lillard / Giannis? Nope.
Pacers = M Turner, Nesmith, McConnell, Jarrace Walker for Jimmy. Indiana would have zero quality bigs and be unable to compete. Not worth it for them. M Turner could be an interesting big man pairing with Bam due to his three point shooting. Although they would risk losing him in the summer in FA.
Philly = PG13 for Jimmy. Other than that, they can't make a deal. It could be interesting for both sides. Miami would have to be willing to roll the dice on a 4yr contract for PG13 that they wouldn't give Jimmy. PG13 has injury proneness question marks like Jimmy and PG13 has played at a much lower level this season. So Miami may not be willing to do that. Philly may not be willing to trade a player they just acquired in FA. They may also fear Jimmy is a worse fit alongside Embiid & Maxey due to his inferior outside shooting.
Western Teams
DAL = can't make the money work (outside of Kyrie / Luka). Have no quality players or young assets to offer either.
DEN = MPJ for Jimmy? If you are MIA, do you want to be stuck with MPJ's contract? I wouldn't. I would rather Jimmy leave for nothing as a FA.
HOU = D Brooks, S Adams, J Londale and a young player or future picks for MIA. Maybe Tari Eason. Londale and S Adams are expiring contracts. D Brooks has 2 and a half more years on his deal at $22mil.
LAL = Hachimura, Vanderbilt, G Vincent, D Finney Smith for Jimmy. Vanderbilt has 3 and a half years on his deal. The others all 1 and a half years. How much draft capital would it take for Miami to take those contracts? A pair of unprotected 1st long into the future. Might work.
MEM = Smart, B Clarke, Kennard for Jimmy. Smart and Kennard are due to expire. Pickup B Clarke as a backup big. Not really needed. Only earning $12mil so they could trade him on for an addition asset. MEM include a 1st. Would that be enough for MIA to move Jimmy? 2 1sts? Would MEM pay Jimmy a long term contract? Doubt it. They are already paying big money to Morant, Bane & JJJ. If they weren't willing to pay him, would they still give up 1st round picks? Probably not.
Minnesota = Randle and make-weight salaries (DiVincenzo?) for Jimmy is an idea I like. Minnesota do not look right. A trade of Randle for Jimmy could re-open their title chances. I believe MIA has been interested in Randle in the past when he was in NYC. He would be an interesting fit alongside Bam and all their shooters on the perimeter.
Sacramento = DeRozan, Huerter, T Lyles for Jimmy. Depends on how highly MIA value DeRozan. 2 and a half years on his deal. 1 and a half on Huerter's deal. Huerter similar to Duncan Robinson. Not really needed.
Appeal
Do any of those ideas appeal to you for Miami? For the other team as well?
A couple of them have good value for Miami. Most of them have very little value.
It looks awkward to me. Matching Jimmy's high salary and making the numbers work is hard. Finding a team willing to pay him long term. Finding a team with positive assets (proven talent like Randle, young talent like Kuminga, or future 1sts) to exchange. Miami being asked to take back bad contracts. Not impossible but it is awkward. It looks a hard trade market to navigate.
Miami already had talks with teams and said there was nothing out that appealed to them. I can believe that. That those few teams that may be able to make an interesting offer were not interested and what was left was largely garbage offers that meant MIA was better off letting Jimmy leave for nothing as a FA.
