Pat's have the #1 pick if they lose next week, and even if they win they apparently can't drop lower than 4th (according to someone on reddit). That's an awesome place to be in, best case is we have the chance to pick up a future first in a trade while still getting a top prospect, worst case is we have our choice of the non-QB/Travis Hunter prospects. That almost makes it worth how unwatchable the team has been most weeks
If they Win vs Buffalo they'd have a 4-13 record, along with a batch of other teams. But the tie breaker for draft order is SOS, the weaker your opponents were win percentage wise the better for your draft order. The Patriots have the lowest SOS of .469 of any team with 3 or 4 wins, so even if they fall to four wins they'd likely pick first amongst that group. The only team with 3/4 win's that COULD pass them is Jacksonville (SOS .472). So ya, they will pick somewhere between 1-5.
If they get pick #1 I'd actually like to see them trade down, try to get one of those massive pick hauls. They have SO MANY holes, as dynamic as Hunter is getting more shots at starter level players might be better for the pats.
Jacksonville can't actually pass us, though, based on the remaining games. It's detailed in
this Reddit post, but the short explanation is that most outcomes are fixed (where 2 teams we played are playing each other, so 1 win and 1 loss is guaranteed [ignoring ties]), and of the remaining 3 opponents, 2 of them are shared with Jacksonville. So the only possible change is one extra loss in either direction, and if Jacksonville gets that they still lose to us because the next tie breaker is head-to-head record (and we lost to them in week 7).
I still think we lose Sunday, but with 4th being the worst case I won't be too stressed about it. I don't like Hunter's fit here so the only loss I see from getting #4 is losing the chance to trade down and picking up an extra 1st rounder next year. Pick up a good DT/Edge or a WR and I'll be happy.