Jaylen Brown Agrees to extension

[celticsclay]

I’m in the camp of this is a bad contract that we shouldn’t have offered. That’s just way too much for a secondary star. That money should go to the very elite, and Jaylen just isn’t that.

He’s a good player but he’s basically unmovable from here on out.

I hope Porzingis is the missing piece because this is our shot. Horford is going to be aging out of playing time, who knows what will happen with Derrick White and Robert Williams’ next deals, Brogdon probably won’t be here beyond next year (if not sooner). It’s basically all on the Jays now and the foreseeable future.

He just made the All NBA second team. I believe that means he’s part of the, “very elite”.

A very good player can make an All NBA Team once, as better players sometimes won't qualify because of games played. However, the "very elite", make All NBA teams multiple times. Sometimes in life, it's all about timing. For Jaylen,  making his first All NBA Team couldn't have happened at a more opportune time. I have my doubts that he'll ever make another All NBA team.

He made all nba second team. How many guys in the last ten or fifteen years made second team and were just a guy with a lucky year? Only guys that probably won’t make the hall of fame I noticed are demar and randle. Really weird hate on jb here

[ozgod]

****!
Good luck green teamers

The definition of a Star player has really changed over the years, I wonder what the great Air Jordan, Larry Bird or Jerry West would be worth?

I was all for letting Brown play out the Deal, 1 year with Porzingas. If they didn’t win a Title, let ‘em walk and start the rebuild or take the $$ cap savings and find another Player..

Good luck!

One of the problems is that if JB walked, there's no practical way to "take the cap savings and find another player".  In all likelihood, you end up replacing a departing max free agent with a $12 million player.

Also, JB is a star.  He's certainly All-Star worthy.  He's not an MVP candidate, but he's around the top 5% of all NBA players.

TP, a lot of people don't understand this. It's as much about asset management and asset retention. Boston is currently at $181.2m before Jaylen's supermax. Salary cap is $136m. If they didn't think JB was worth the supermax and let him walk, then his current $31m cap hold comes off the books when he signs elsewhere, so that brings us down to $150m, which is still over the cap. There's no realistic cap savings. AFAIK teams can only go over the cap to resign their players that they have Bird rights to or if they use the exceptions or via the Chris Paul rule. That's the reason we can go over the cap to resign JB. I don't think Brad would have wanted to lose Jaylen and replace him with a guy you can only get with your MLE unless they did a sign and trade which, depending on circumstances might have hard capped us. Whether you think Jaylen is worth $60m a year or not he's still an asset which is fungible, there's plenty of teams that would fall over themselves to get an asset like Jaylen on their books. If you don't think he's worth it then sign him anyway and trade him for someone you think has better value later on. Don't lose him for nothing.

[JSD]

I don’t think other teams would be scared off by that contract. You retained a serious asset at the very least. I like the deal

[cltc5]

Ugh I hope that includes a dribble coach

[ozgod]

I’m in the camp of this is a bad contract that we shouldn’t have offered. That’s just way too much for a secondary star. That money should go to the very elite, and Jaylen just isn’t that.

He’s a good player but he’s basically unmovable from here on out.

I hope Porzingis is the missing piece because this is our shot. Horford is going to be aging out of playing time, who knows what will happen with Derrick White and Robert Williams’ next deals, Brogdon probably won’t be here beyond next year (if not sooner). It’s basically all on the Jays now and the foreseeable future.

Not only is this not true, but a lot of the "analysts" thought that Boston was forced into signing him to this deal, if only to trade him down the road.

100%. A lot of people feel we can have our cake and eat it too. Basically make Jaylen play for a year to prove he's worthy of a supermax, without understanding that when Jaylen's contract ends at the end of the season he is free to walk away for nothing. Because we are $44.2m over the cap already, his $31m salary coming off the books doesn't free up money to allow us to replace him with a similar max player because we don't have any cap space that would be freed up to spend.

Other people say well he's not worth it, he shot 30% in the last game! He's only worth about $40m, not $60m. If we offer Jaylen $40m what are the chances he says no, I will try my luck in free agency since you guys don't want me here? Then we lose him for nothing as well.

What about trading him mid season? I'm sure we would find takers right? There would be plenty of takers, but probably not at the return that Brad would want, because a) Jaylen is on an expiring and could leave any team he was traded to at the end of the season and b) because he is an expiring Brad would have very little leverage to get what he wants in return because the team he would be getting traded to has no control over him. Good luck trying to trade him to a rebuilding team like Portland for Dame with them knowing he can walk away from them end of season because they aren't expected to win.

That leaves signing the supermax...sure it could be an overpay. But Jaylen has value around the league, he was an All-Star and 2nd team All-NBA. He is an asset with value that can be traded when there is 5 years of financial control over him. Of course there would be haggling over whether he's worth $40m, $50m or $60m, or if he's worth money that Larry Bird, who is now 66 years old, didn't get. But if Brad ever wanted to trade him or including him in some packages for an even bigger star after this season (since he can't now be traded for a year) I would suspect there would be a very healthy market for an All-Star, All-NBA, two way wing who averaged 20+ppg (26ppg last season) and 6+rpg for the past four seasons, and is only 26, no matter how trash fans think he played in the playoffs against Miami.

So since I suspect most people here would be calling for Brad's resignation if he let Jaylen walk away for nothing at the end of the season, the options really are: trade him now when his value is low because he's an expiring and could be a rental, vs signing the supermax, possibly overpaying him and then trading him after a year if it doesn't work out with JT and KP. Which scenario generates more immediate and long term value for the team?

Those are the things I suspect Brad looked at when making his decision. He didn't let his heart and his recency bias overrule his head 

[SparzWizard]

Hope Brad does not regret this. Not worth $304M supermax.

[PAOBoston]

Hope Brad does not regret this. Not worth $304M supermax.

He is worth whatever he qualified to earn under the CBA.

[ozgod]

Hope Brad does not regret this. Not worth $304M supermax.

Hey Sparz, (or anyone else who think Jaylen wasn't worth it). I agree his worth is to be determined, since there's never been anyone who has been paid this amount in the history of the league. But given the options Brad had that I outlined above:

a) make him play a prove it year and risk losing him for nothing end of season and not being able to replace him because even after losing him they would still be over the cap;
b) offer less, risk getting rejected and losing him for nothing end of season and not being able to replace him because even after losing him they would still be over the cap;
c) trade him midseason, with other teams knowing he could be a 1 year rental and could walk end of season which could reduce his market; or
d) give him the 5 year supermax with the risk that it would be an overpay which could reduce his market

What would you have done? What would leave the team in the best position both immediate and long term?

Be nice to have this as a poll actually 

[trickybilly]

Just on a non-basketball angle, never need to worry about Jaylen saying or doing something stupid. Good kid.

[Walker Wiggle]

I agree with the premise that this was the Celtics’ best course of action, even if Brown isn’t quite worth 35% of the cap.

Because NBA fans (and human beings in general) suffer from recency bias, and because Brown performed poorly in the Celtics’ last playoff round, we are all collectively forgetting how good this player is. He didn’t get 2nd team all NBA as a fluke; he was an absolute monster in the regular season.

And oh, by the way, he was the Celtics’ best player — not Tatum — in the 2022 Finals.

Brown is 26, is coming off a great season and the best of his career, and is known to work his tail off in the offseason and improve every year. In no universe is having a guy like that on a max deal — even at 35% — a bad development.

[tenn_smoothie]

I've seen analysis (and over-analysis) of role players like Grant Williams on this blog, but I just read this for the first time:

Tatum and Brown combined for 56.7 points per game last season, the fourth-most by a duo since the 1976-77 merger, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. They both also scored 30 points in 10 games, a feat only Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant have accomplished in the last 30 seasons. (ESPN)

Very impressive. Tatum and JB are awesome and young. Let them develop before we trade either.

Some of those numbers are empty calories. What are these two doing when it matters most in important playoff games ?

Well, sometimes they have been very good, though it is rare during those make-or-break games that they both play great and facilitate the team playing together. Seems like when one is lighting it up in a big playoff game, the other is struggling. To me, they continue to take turns doing the same thing. Finally, Brown is simply a dumb player who, season after season, commits the same bad turnovers in the 4th quarter of playoff games.

Maybe the Celtics had little choice, given all the factors they were dealing with.
An important question is whether Jaylen Brown's huge contract will be tradeable in a couple of years if the playoff failures continue.

[ozgod]

I've seen analysis (and over-analysis) of role players like Grant Williams on this blog, but I just read this for the first time:

Tatum and Brown combined for 56.7 points per game last season, the fourth-most by a duo since the 1976-77 merger, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. They both also scored 30 points in 10 games, a feat only Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant have accomplished in the last 30 seasons. (ESPN)

Very impressive. Tatum and JB are awesome and young. Let them develop before we trade either.

Some of those numbers are empty calories. What are these two doing when it matters most in important playoff games ?

Well, sometimes they have been very good, though it is rare during those make-or-break games that they both play great and facilitate the team playing together. Seems like when one is lighting it up in a big playoff game, the other is struggling. To me, they continue to take turns doing the same thing. Finally, Brown is simply a dumb player who, season after season, commits the same bad turnovers in the 4th quarter of playoff games.

Maybe the Celtics had little choice, given all the factors they were dealing with.
An important question is whether Jaylen Brown's huge contract will be tradeable in a couple of years if the playoff failures continue.

This is the big unknown...all depends on whether he continues his trajectory of improvement that we've seen over the past 5 years. If there's evidence of that, even if he doesn't live up to being the highest paid player in the NBA then I think we would have plenty of takers in a trade. There's going to be GMs and teams that want an All-Star, All-NBA wing that can produce 25ppg/7rpg and has ambitions to be a team centerpiece. The worst case scenarios would be either a long term injury that brings into question his future athleticism (since he's been a very athletic but not necessarily high BBIQ player) or some kind of mental issue that would affect his development a la Ben Simmons. Those would be the main things I that would keep me up at night 

[tenn_smoothie]

I've seen analysis (and over-analysis) of role players like Grant Williams on this blog, but I just read this for the first time:

Tatum and Brown combined for 56.7 points per game last season, the fourth-most by a duo since the 1976-77 merger, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. They both also scored 30 points in 10 games, a feat only Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant have accomplished in the last 30 seasons. (ESPN)

Very impressive. Tatum and JB are awesome and young. Let them develop before we trade either.

Some of those numbers are empty calories. What are these two doing when it matters most in important playoff games ?

Well, sometimes they have been very good, though it is rare during those make-or-break games that they both play great and facilitate the team playing together. Seems like when one is lighting it up in a big playoff game, the other is struggling. To me, they continue to take turns doing the same thing. Finally, Brown is simply a dumb player who, season after season, commits the same bad turnovers in the 4th quarter of playoff games.

Maybe the Celtics had little choice, given all the factors they were dealing with.
An important question is whether Jaylen Brown's huge contract will be tradeable in a couple of years if the playoff failures continue.

This is the big unknown...all depends on whether he continues his trajectory of improvement that we've seen over the past 5 years. If there's evidence of that, even if he doesn't live up to being the highest paid player in the NBA then I think we would have plenty of takers in a trade. There's going to be GMs and teams that want an All-Star, All-NBA wing that can produce 25ppg/7rpg and has ambitions to be a team centerpiece. The worst case scenarios would be either a long term injury that brings into question his future athleticism (since he's been a very athletic but not necessarily high BBIQ player) or some kind of mental issue that would affect his development a la Ben Simmons. Those would be the main things I that would keep me up at night 

Agreed on all points.

Your summary and analysis of all the options and possible outcomes was excellent, btw.
After reading that, I can see how signing him to the max was really the only smart option, even though Brown is simply not a $50-60-70 million/year player. Who is, really ? These salaries are insane and this CBA era, I believe, is damaging the game. These rules are making it impossible to build and then maintain a title contender, even the right way, as basically the Celtics have done, unless you want to force the owners to spend ridiculous amounts of money on penalties. I suppose Comrade Silver will have his absolute parity.

[ozgod]

I've seen analysis (and over-analysis) of role players like Grant Williams on this blog, but I just read this for the first time:

Tatum and Brown combined for 56.7 points per game last season, the fourth-most by a duo since the 1976-77 merger, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. They both also scored 30 points in 10 games, a feat only Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant have accomplished in the last 30 seasons. (ESPN)

Very impressive. Tatum and JB are awesome and young. Let them develop before we trade either.

Some of those numbers are empty calories. What are these two doing when it matters most in important playoff games ?

Well, sometimes they have been very good, though it is rare during those make-or-break games that they both play great and facilitate the team playing together. Seems like when one is lighting it up in a big playoff game, the other is struggling. To me, they continue to take turns doing the same thing. Finally, Brown is simply a dumb player who, season after season, commits the same bad turnovers in the 4th quarter of playoff games.

Maybe the Celtics had little choice, given all the factors they were dealing with.
An important question is whether Jaylen Brown's huge contract will be tradeable in a couple of years if the playoff failures continue.

This is the big unknown...all depends on whether he continues his trajectory of improvement that we've seen over the past 5 years. If there's evidence of that, even if he doesn't live up to being the highest paid player in the NBA then I think we would have plenty of takers in a trade. There's going to be GMs and teams that want an All-Star, All-NBA wing that can produce 25ppg/7rpg and has ambitions to be a team centerpiece. The worst case scenarios would be either a long term injury that brings into question his future athleticism (since he's been a very athletic but not necessarily high BBIQ player) or some kind of mental issue that would affect his development a la Ben Simmons. Those would be the main things I that would keep me up at night 

Agreed on all points.

Your summary and analysis of all the options and possible outcomes was excellent, btw.
After reading that, I can see how signing him to the max was really the only smart option, even though Brown is simply not a $50-60-70 million/year player. Who is, really ? These salaries are insane and this CBA era, I believe, is damaging the game. These rules are making it impossible to build and then maintain a title contender, even the right way, as basically the Celtics have done, unless you want to force the owners to spend ridiculous amounts of money on penalties. I suppose Comrade Silver will have his absolute parity.

Thanks Tenn. You're not wrong about the cap going up and up and up and inflating salaries significantly at the top end...I did a little analysis of how the cap has grown and salaries have done the same over the past decade. I pulled the data from Spotrac:



I can't remember offhand when the new CBA started, but looking at things retroactively, if you look back at 2013-14, the year the Spurs won, a max contract in today's CBA (35% of cap) was/would have been $20m. San Antonio's actual highest paid player was Tony Parker at $12m, followed by Tim Duncan at $10m and Manu at $7.5m. Next season when Jaylen's deal starts it will be $54m. You already have guys like LeMelo, Bane, Haliburton on rookie extensions that are paying them $40k+ a season without actually achieving anything yet. Obviously business is good for the NBA for teams to be able to afford it all - the cap has basically tripled since 10 years ago.

Sometimes I wonder what it will do to those middle level contracts that the majority of players are on......because if you want a Big Three that's pretty much 105% of your salary cap already. A Big Two, 70%. Then all the depth pieces that everyone wants to be 4 deep at each position...obviously you can fill out your roster with all vet min guys but I can't help but think those middle level guys might get squeezed. Then again some desperate team that can't attract stars will probably overpay them like Philly did Tobias Harris.

But it's going to be a challenge for Brad and other GMs to fill out their roster for depth and satisfy the needs of their fan bases and their coaching staff when at least 70%, maybe more, of your cap is taken up by two or three players. But I hope that's why they get paid the big bucks to figure it out 

[cman88]

https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1684015370187816960?t=DuO3wXybP_ny_eiupRoOXw&s=19

Lol what's this garbage. Some exec thinks Jaylen is 3rd, 4th or 5th best player on the Celtics?

Must be someone who brad rebuffed