I am trying to figure out just what we are dealing with in this Miami team. This team barely made the playoffs and couldn't win a play in game vs. Atlanta. This team also beat MIL and NYC in playoff series, both pretty easily.
Vs. MIL, Giannis had a NRTG of -8.9 in the series as compared to a NRTG of +7.2 in the regular season. That certainly would lead you to believe he was not 100%. It is still surprising the Bucks looked as bad as they did. Vs. NYK, the Heat settled in and outplayed them. Were the better team. To me the surprise was that Duncan Robinson (+10.1), Gabe Vincent (+10.7), and Cody Zeller (+30.3) had high NRTG values in that series, while really not shooting well (Zeller didn't play much).
I keep looking and looking and I can't find a reason to believe that MIA is as good as PHI or maybe even as good as ATL (at least how ATL played against us). It appears to me that the Bucks cratered and the Knicks just weren't that good. That said, Butler and Adebayo is a very respectable 1-2 punch. Then they have a lot of scrappy decent shooters around them (even if they didn't shoot all that well vs. NYK). One thing for sure, MIA is going to come in with confidence, nothing to lose. They are going to scrap and fight for everything. We better be ready for that.