https://x.com/CamInTaunton/status/1920485459269922857/photo/1
This says it all.
Yeah, that's horrible. A couple of easy buckets can halt the opponent's momentum and give the Cs more confidence.
It's hard to zoom too hard on a single play, but I feel like someone has to deliver the "Money Ball" memo on late game leads.
Over the course of a game, a series, a season... high volume 3PT shooting at a decent clip (35-40%?) is now the most efficient way to score in the NBA. Sure. It is what it is.
However, in short stretches there is more variance. For example:
You are up by 12, with 5 minutes to go. If you slow down the game, there are 15-20 possessions left. You score more than say, 6 points and the game is basically over. The other team is not putting up 20 in 5 minutes with a slow pace. So how do you blow it? Outside shots that don't go down.
What are the odds that if you shoot 10 threes, you go 2-10? Not that unlikely, especially with tired legs. On the other hand, if you work the clock, post up, draw fouls, what are the chances you can't cobble together 7 or 8 points in 10 trips? I bet it's a lot lower.
At the end of games, average outcomes don't matter -- worst case ones do. Draw up a play. Post up Porzingis. Go to the rim to draw a foul.