JB states his case for All-NBA

[Roy H.]

I think Jimmy Butler deserves the praise he gets.  He is a really good player and has been for a while.  They have him right there with Brown.  But not Tatum.  I think that is fair if his body of work is considered.  He is trying to be the #1 guy on the Heat, with not a whole lot around him.  Second team or third team All NBA is about right.

The "body of work" thing is the questionable part for me.  Does that include only this year?  Or does it include his reputation for clutchness and elite defense (neither of which he displayed much this year)?

It is tough to separate.  I have not seen enough of his games this season to be able to judge how his defense this season compares to last, or his "clutchness".  But if I was picking teams to play a game today, I would pick him pretty high.  He averaged 23 points on about 14 shots per game (very efficient for a #1 guy).  35% from 3.  And I think his defense is still pretty good for a #1 offensive guy.  That is a pretty good body of work for the season.  But things are winding down some for him at age 33.  He is certainly not going to carry a mediocre team very far any more, probably never could.  But would you rather have Markkanen or Randle (the current 3rd team forwards) over Butler for a big game?  Even LeBron (who also has forward votes)?

As I said above, if I could wave my wand, I probably have have Brown as second team SF, Sabonis or Randle as second team PF and then Butler as third team SF.

To me, that's not the standard I use.  I think you need to look at games played, I think you need to look at actual performance in the regular season, I think you need to look at team success, etc.

To me, Butler is similar to guys like Siakim and DeRozan, except he's got lesser stats and played fewer games.

[Vermont Green]

I think Jimmy Butler deserves the praise he gets.  He is a really good player and has been for a while.  They have him right there with Brown.  But not Tatum.  I think that is fair if his body of work is considered.  He is trying to be the #1 guy on the Heat, with not a whole lot around him.  Second team or third team All NBA is about right.

The "body of work" thing is the questionable part for me.  Does that include only this year?  Or does it include his reputation for clutchness and elite defense (neither of which he displayed much this year)?

It is tough to separate.  I have not seen enough of his games this season to be able to judge how his defense this season compares to last, or his "clutchness".  But if I was picking teams to play a game today, I would pick him pretty high.  He averaged 23 points on about 14 shots per game (very efficient for a #1 guy).  35% from 3.  And I think his defense is still pretty good for a #1 offensive guy.  That is a pretty good body of work for the season.  But things are winding down some for him at age 33.  He is certainly not going to carry a mediocre team very far any more, probably never could.  But would you rather have Markkanen or Randle (the current 3rd team forwards) over Butler for a big game?  Even LeBron (who also has forward votes)?

As I said above, if I could wave my wand, I probably have have Brown as second team SF, Sabonis or Randle as second team PF and then Butler as third team SF.

To me, that's not the standard I use.  I think you need to look at games played, I think you need to look at actual performance in the regular season, I think you need to look at team success, etc.

To me, Butler is similar to guys like Siakim and DeRozan, except he's got lesser stats and played fewer games.

DeRozan has 24.5 pts vs Butler 22.9 pts but DeRozan took 17.6 shots to Butler's 13.9 shots.  I will take Butler's efficiency.  DeRozan played 74 games, Butler only 64.  And qualitatively, I see Butler as better on defense, better in big games, better at making other players better.  I have Butler ahead of DeRozan and Siakam (71 games).  I don't know how to adjust the voting for the difference of 7 to 10 games played (the only real advantage that DeRozan/Siakam have in my mind).  I am fine with how this voting is going so far, at least in regards to DeRozan and Siakam relative to Butler.  I would have Randle (77 games) as the one more likely to be ahead of Butler.  These things never align perfectly with my opinions.  I see Butler as 3rd team.

[Moranis]

I think Jimmy Butler deserves the praise he gets.  He is a really good player and has been for a while.  They have him right there with Brown.  But not Tatum.  I think that is fair if his body of work is considered.  He is trying to be the #1 guy on the Heat, with not a whole lot around him.  Second team or third team All NBA is about right.

The "body of work" thing is the questionable part for me.  Does that include only this year?  Or does it include his reputation for clutchness and elite defense (neither of which he displayed much this year)?

It is tough to separate.  I have not seen enough of his games this season to be able to judge how his defense this season compares to last, or his "clutchness".  But if I was picking teams to play a game today, I would pick him pretty high.  He averaged 23 points on about 14 shots per game (very efficient for a #1 guy).  35% from 3.  And I think his defense is still pretty good for a #1 offensive guy.  That is a pretty good body of work for the season.  But things are winding down some for him at age 33.  He is certainly not going to carry a mediocre team very far any more, probably never could.  But would you rather have Markkanen or Randle (the current 3rd team forwards) over Butler for a big game?  Even LeBron (who also has forward votes)?

As I said above, if I could wave my wand, I probably have have Brown as second team SF, Sabonis or Randle as second team PF and then Butler as third team SF.

To me, that's not the standard I use.  I think you need to look at games played, I think you need to look at actual performance in the regular season, I think you need to look at team success, etc.

To me, Butler is similar to guys like Siakim and DeRozan, except he's got lesser stats and played fewer games.

I don't really think team success matters for All NBA, it is an individual stat based award.  For MVP, it matters, not so much for All NBA.

[Roy H.]

I think Jimmy Butler deserves the praise he gets.  He is a really good player and has been for a while.  They have him right there with Brown.  But not Tatum.  I think that is fair if his body of work is considered.  He is trying to be the #1 guy on the Heat, with not a whole lot around him.  Second team or third team All NBA is about right.

The "body of work" thing is the questionable part for me.  Does that include only this year?  Or does it include his reputation for clutchness and elite defense (neither of which he displayed much this year)?

It is tough to separate.  I have not seen enough of his games this season to be able to judge how his defense this season compares to last, or his "clutchness".  But if I was picking teams to play a game today, I would pick him pretty high.  He averaged 23 points on about 14 shots per game (very efficient for a #1 guy).  35% from 3.  And I think his defense is still pretty good for a #1 offensive guy.  That is a pretty good body of work for the season.  But things are winding down some for him at age 33.  He is certainly not going to carry a mediocre team very far any more, probably never could.  But would you rather have Markkanen or Randle (the current 3rd team forwards) over Butler for a big game?  Even LeBron (who also has forward votes)?

As I said above, if I could wave my wand, I probably have have Brown as second team SF, Sabonis or Randle as second team PF and then Butler as third team SF.

To me, that's not the standard I use.  I think you need to look at games played, I think you need to look at actual performance in the regular season, I think you need to look at team success, etc.

To me, Butler is similar to guys like Siakim and DeRozan, except he's got lesser stats and played fewer games.

I don't really think team success matters for All NBA, it is an individual stat based award.  For MVP, it matters, not so much for All NBA.

I think it matters.  It’s similar to the All-Star game, where the best teams tend to get more selections than bad teams.

[Moranis]

I think Jimmy Butler deserves the praise he gets.  He is a really good player and has been for a while.  They have him right there with Brown.  But not Tatum.  I think that is fair if his body of work is considered.  He is trying to be the #1 guy on the Heat, with not a whole lot around him.  Second team or third team All NBA is about right.

The "body of work" thing is the questionable part for me.  Does that include only this year?  Or does it include his reputation for clutchness and elite defense (neither of which he displayed much this year)?

It is tough to separate.  I have not seen enough of his games this season to be able to judge how his defense this season compares to last, or his "clutchness".  But if I was picking teams to play a game today, I would pick him pretty high.  He averaged 23 points on about 14 shots per game (very efficient for a #1 guy).  35% from 3.  And I think his defense is still pretty good for a #1 offensive guy.  That is a pretty good body of work for the season.  But things are winding down some for him at age 33.  He is certainly not going to carry a mediocre team very far any more, probably never could.  But would you rather have Markkanen or Randle (the current 3rd team forwards) over Butler for a big game?  Even LeBron (who also has forward votes)?

As I said above, if I could wave my wand, I probably have have Brown as second team SF, Sabonis or Randle as second team PF and then Butler as third team SF.

To me, that's not the standard I use.  I think you need to look at games played, I think you need to look at actual performance in the regular season, I think you need to look at team success, etc.

To me, Butler is similar to guys like Siakim and DeRozan, except he's got lesser stats and played fewer games.

I don't really think team success matters for All NBA, it is an individual stat based award.  For MVP, it matters, not so much for All NBA.

I think it matters.  It’s similar to the All-Star game, where the best teams tend to get more selections than bad teams.

Well that is because the best players tend to be on the best teams.  I just don't think many voters care about team success.  I mean look at all the votes for guys like Lebron and Davis, who both missed a ton of games and their team was barely above .500 making just the play-in.  Or all of the votes that SGA and Luka (and Lillard) are getting despite not playing on good teams. 

Now sure if you two guys are very close, you might favor the guy on the better team, but I really don't think team success matters for All NBA. 

[Vermont Green]

I think Jimmy Butler deserves the praise he gets.  He is a really good player and has been for a while.  They have him right there with Brown.  But not Tatum.  I think that is fair if his body of work is considered.  He is trying to be the #1 guy on the Heat, with not a whole lot around him.  Second team or third team All NBA is about right.

The "body of work" thing is the questionable part for me.  Does that include only this year?  Or does it include his reputation for clutchness and elite defense (neither of which he displayed much this year)?

It is tough to separate.  I have not seen enough of his games this season to be able to judge how his defense this season compares to last, or his "clutchness".  But if I was picking teams to play a game today, I would pick him pretty high.  He averaged 23 points on about 14 shots per game (very efficient for a #1 guy).  35% from 3.  And I think his defense is still pretty good for a #1 offensive guy.  That is a pretty good body of work for the season.  But things are winding down some for him at age 33.  He is certainly not going to carry a mediocre team very far any more, probably never could.  But would you rather have Markkanen or Randle (the current 3rd team forwards) over Butler for a big game?  Even LeBron (who also has forward votes)?

As I said above, if I could wave my wand, I probably have have Brown as second team SF, Sabonis or Randle as second team PF and then Butler as third team SF.

To me, that's not the standard I use.  I think you need to look at games played, I think you need to look at actual performance in the regular season, I think you need to look at team success, etc.

To me, Butler is similar to guys like Siakim and DeRozan, except he's got lesser stats and played fewer games.

I don't really think team success matters for All NBA, it is an individual stat based award.  For MVP, it matters, not so much for All NBA.

I think it matters.  It’s similar to the All-Star game, where the best teams tend to get more selections than bad teams.

Team success doesn't matter when the players being debated are Siakam, DeRozan, and Butler.  This year, all 3 teams were play in teams, all about the same success.  That is why I didn't mention it in this discussion.

More overall, it is going to be part of the equation for voters, I don't think you can help that.  Lillard is getting some votes, for example, and that is fine, but he would no doubt be getting more if POR had more team success.

[Roy H.]

Hoopshype got ballot results from 16 voters, which were compiled as follows:

POLL RESULTS

1st Team

Giannis Antetokounmpo (100 percent)
Jayson Tatum (97.50 percent)
Joel Embiid (95 percent)
Luka Doncic (90 percent)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (90 percent)

2nd Team

Nikola Jokic (75 percent)
Donovan Mitchell (62.50 percent)
Damian Lillard (38.75 percent)
Jimmy Butler (33.75 percent)
Julius Randle (32.50 percent)

3rd Team

Domantas Sabonis (32.50 percent)
Stephen Curry (31.25 percent)
Jaylen Brown (25 percent)
De’Aaron Fox (22.50 percent)
Anthony Davis (13.75 percent)
Lauri Markkanen (13.75 percent)

Others receiving votes: LeBron James (10 percent), Kawhi Leonard (7.50 percent), Kevin Durant (6.25 percent), Anthony Edwards (5 percent), Ja Morant (5 percent), Jrue Holiday (5 percent), Pascal Siakam (2.50 percent), Bam Adebayo (1.25 percent), DeMar DeRozan (1.25 percent), Devin Booker (1.25 percent), Jalen Brunson (1.25 percent).

They also have Malcolm Brogdon leading for 6th Man of the Year, and Derrick White on track for 2nd Team All-Defense.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-awards-hoopshype-compiled-the-media-ballots-to-determine-the-expected-2023-winners/

[Donoghus]

Hoopshype got ballot results from 16 voters, which were compiled as follows:

POLL RESULTS

1st Team

Giannis Antetokounmpo (100 percent)
Jayson Tatum (97.50 percent)
Joel Embiid (95 percent)
Luka Doncic (90 percent)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (90 percent)

2nd Team

Nikola Jokic (75 percent)
Donovan Mitchell (62.50 percent)
Damian Lillard (38.75 percent)
Jimmy Butler (33.75 percent)
Julius Randle (32.50 percent)

3rd Team

Domantas Sabonis (32.50 percent)
Stephen Curry (31.25 percent)
Jaylen Brown (25 percent)
De’Aaron Fox (22.50 percent)
Anthony Davis (13.75 percent)
Lauri Markkanen (13.75 percent)

Others receiving votes: LeBron James (10 percent), Kawhi Leonard (7.50 percent), Kevin Durant (6.25 percent), Anthony Edwards (5 percent), Ja Morant (5 percent), Jrue Holiday (5 percent), Pascal Siakam (2.50 percent), Bam Adebayo (1.25 percent), DeMar DeRozan (1.25 percent), Devin Booker (1.25 percent), Jalen Brunson (1.25 percent).

They also have Malcolm Brogdon leading for 6th Man of the Year, and Derrick White on track for 2nd Team All-Defense.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-awards-hoopshype-compiled-the-media-ballots-to-determine-the-expected-2023-winners/

Very promising for Jaylen.

[Moranis]

Hoopshype got ballot results from 16 voters, which were compiled as follows:

POLL RESULTS

1st Team

Giannis Antetokounmpo (100 percent)
Jayson Tatum (97.50 percent)
Joel Embiid (95 percent)
Luka Doncic (90 percent)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (90 percent)

2nd Team

Nikola Jokic (75 percent)
Donovan Mitchell (62.50 percent)
Damian Lillard (38.75 percent)
Jimmy Butler (33.75 percent)
Julius Randle (32.50 percent)

3rd Team

Domantas Sabonis (32.50 percent)
Stephen Curry (31.25 percent)
Jaylen Brown (25 percent)
De’Aaron Fox (22.50 percent)
Anthony Davis (13.75 percent)
Lauri Markkanen (13.75 percent)

Others receiving votes: LeBron James (10 percent), Kawhi Leonard (7.50 percent), Kevin Durant (6.25 percent), Anthony Edwards (5 percent), Ja Morant (5 percent), Jrue Holiday (5 percent), Pascal Siakam (2.50 percent), Bam Adebayo (1.25 percent), DeMar DeRozan (1.25 percent), Devin Booker (1.25 percent), Jalen Brunson (1.25 percent).

They also have Malcolm Brogdon leading for 6th Man of the Year, and Derrick White on track for 2nd Team All-Defense.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-awards-hoopshype-compiled-the-media-ballots-to-determine-the-expected-2023-winners/

Very promising for Jaylen.

Interesting he is getting more votes at guard. 

[Vermont Green]

Hoopshype got ballot results from 16 voters, which were compiled as follows:

POLL RESULTS

1st Team

Giannis Antetokounmpo (100 percent)
Jayson Tatum (97.50 percent)
Joel Embiid (95 percent)
Luka Doncic (90 percent)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (90 percent)

2nd Team

Nikola Jokic (75 percent)
Donovan Mitchell (62.50 percent)
Damian Lillard (38.75 percent)
Jimmy Butler (33.75 percent)
Julius Randle (32.50 percent)

3rd Team

Domantas Sabonis (32.50 percent)
Stephen Curry (31.25 percent)
Jaylen Brown (25 percent)
De’Aaron Fox (22.50 percent)
Anthony Davis (13.75 percent)
Lauri Markkanen (13.75 percent)

Others receiving votes: LeBron James (10 percent), Kawhi Leonard (7.50 percent), Kevin Durant (6.25 percent), Anthony Edwards (5 percent), Ja Morant (5 percent), Jrue Holiday (5 percent), Pascal Siakam (2.50 percent), Bam Adebayo (1.25 percent), DeMar DeRozan (1.25 percent), Devin Booker (1.25 percent), Jalen Brunson (1.25 percent).

They also have Malcolm Brogdon leading for 6th Man of the Year, and Derrick White on track for 2nd Team All-Defense.

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-awards-hoopshype-compiled-the-media-ballots-to-determine-the-expected-2023-winners/

Very promising for Jaylen.

It looks very fair to me, if this is how it turns out.  I probably would have Mitchell as first team in a close call.  And I would have Brown over Butler in a close call.  But these are debatable changes.  Nothing egregious.  Interesting that all the positions more or less worked out fine.

They have 6 listed for 3rd team, I guess there is a tie between Davis and Markkanen.  I think based on games played and other factors, Markkanen is more deserving of this last slot.

[Roy H.]

Zach Lowe released his votes:

All-NBA
First team

G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

G Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

F Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

F Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

C Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Second team


G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

G Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

F Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

F Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

C Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Third team

G Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

G De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

F LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

F Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/36173170/lowe-luka-spida-sga-steph-jrue-dame-naming-2022-23-all-nba-all-defense-all-rookie-teams

And once more, with feeling:  it's silly to have Butler over Brown.  I'm not convinced by Lowe's reasoning:

At guard or forward, Butler has to be All-NBA: 23 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, tons of free throws and good defense for a team relying on castoffs.

• Brown was a tougher choice. Advanced metrics have never loved him for a combination of reasons -- shaky playmaking, blah rebounding, hazy off-ball defense, and that Boston's scoring margin typically declines when Brown plays without Tatum.

But 27 points, 7 boards, 3.5 dimes, 58% shooting on 2s, and very good on-ball defense against any type of perimeter scorer -- that's All-NBA quality, as much as anything Siakam, Randle, and Markkanen did. Brown was durable, and his team is in a different stratosphere than the Raptors, Knicks, and Jazz. He (barely) gets the nod.

[keevsnick]

Zach Lowe released his votes:

All-NBA
First team

G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

G Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

F Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

F Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

C Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Second team


G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

G Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

F Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

F Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

C Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Third team

G Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

G De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

F LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

F Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/36173170/lowe-luka-spida-sga-steph-jrue-dame-naming-2022-23-all-nba-all-defense-all-rookie-teams

And once more, with feeling:  it's silly to have Butler over Brown.  I'm not convinced by Lowe's reasoning:

At guard or forward, Butler has to be All-NBA: 23 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, tons of free throws and good defense for a team relying on castoffs.

• Brown was a tougher choice. Advanced metrics have never loved him for a combination of reasons -- shaky playmaking, blah rebounding, hazy off-ball defense, and that Boston's scoring margin typically declines when Brown plays without Tatum.

But 27 points, 7 boards, 3.5 dimes, 58% shooting on 2s, and very good on-ball defense against any type of perimeter scorer -- that's All-NBA quality, as much as anything Siakam, Randle, and Markkanen did. Brown was durable, and his team is in a different stratosphere than the Raptors, Knicks, and Jazz. He (barely) gets the nod.

This is actually a very encouraging ballot for Jaylen. His main "weakness" in all-nba voting is going to be the advanced stats, and Lowe has tended to be a guy who puts more stock in those stats than many. Hence him having Butler on the second team. If he still has Jaylen on his ballot then it bodes well for his chances overall.

This ballot also has Luka taking a forward spot, which actually helps Jaylen because Luka is going to get more votes at guard so he's not really direct competition for Jaylen. Luka at Forward means Zach leaves off Randle, Davis (who again, is a Center), and Markanen which are probably Jaylen's biggest competition for a spot.

It appears as if there isnt really a consensus developing at the end of the ballot with James, Davis, Randle, Markanen all splitting votes. If that holds it helps Jaylen.

[Roy H.]

Zach Lowe released his votes:

All-NBA
First team

G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

G Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

F Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

F Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

C Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Second team


G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

G Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

F Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

F Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

C Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Third team

G Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

G De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

F LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

F Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/36173170/lowe-luka-spida-sga-steph-jrue-dame-naming-2022-23-all-nba-all-defense-all-rookie-teams

And once more, with feeling:  it's silly to have Butler over Brown.  I'm not convinced by Lowe's reasoning:

At guard or forward, Butler has to be All-NBA: 23 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, tons of free throws and good defense for a team relying on castoffs.

• Brown was a tougher choice. Advanced metrics have never loved him for a combination of reasons -- shaky playmaking, blah rebounding, hazy off-ball defense, and that Boston's scoring margin typically declines when Brown plays without Tatum.

But 27 points, 7 boards, 3.5 dimes, 58% shooting on 2s, and very good on-ball defense against any type of perimeter scorer -- that's All-NBA quality, as much as anything Siakam, Randle, and Markkanen did. Brown was durable, and his team is in a different stratosphere than the Raptors, Knicks, and Jazz. He (barely) gets the nod.

This is actually a very encouraging ballot for Jaylen. His main "weakness" in all-nba voting is going to be the advanced stats, and Lowe has tended to be a guy who puts more stock in those stats than many. Hence him having Butler on the second team. If he still has Jaylen on his ballot then it bodes well for his chances overall.

This ballot also has Luka taking a forward spot, which actually helps Jaylen because Luka is going to get more votes at guard so he's not really direct competition for Jaylen. Luka at Forward means Zach leaves off Randle, Davis (who again, is a Center), and Markanen which are probably Jaylen's biggest competition for a spot.

One other comment on Lowe's ballot:  I think that it's absurd to vote for guys who played 55 and 56 games, like Curry and Lebron.  Even Lillard only played 58, for a truly atrocious team.

For a guy who appreciates the game beyond counting numbers, you would think that adding literally nothing for roughly 1/3 of the season would count against a player

[angryguy77]

I have a bad feeling we're going to get screwed.

[Roy H.]

I have a bad feeling we're going to get screwed.

Do you know who is going to get screwed? The fans.

 Somebody is going to have to absorb the cost of a $50 million-$60 million per year contract, and ownership will be quite happy to raise ticket prices.  At the same time, they will ignore the record revenues that they are bringing in, which salaries are directly linked to.