Status of Celtics Line Up/Depth

[Vermont Green]

Similar ideas have come up in other threads but I have been trying to get my head around exactly how things stand for both the regular season and the playoffs in terms of the roster/rotation.  In my mind, there is one group of players that will be in the regular season rotation and a shorter list that will be in the playoff rotation.  The following 8 in my mind are locks to be solid playoff rotation players:

Smart
Brown
Tatum
Horford
RWilliams

White
Brogdon
Grant

Beyond that, we have Hauser, Kornet, and Pritchard who are definitely regular season rotation players but probably not playoff rotation players.  Then there is Griffin and Jackson who are not even regular season rotation players, at least not very often.

Whether you agree or disagree specifically with how I have grouped the players, the big question is if this is enough, particularly in regards to the playoff rotation?  Of course it would be nice to have a playoff tested vet to fill in for any injury for the playoff rotation but I don't think that is realistic.  We have to go with what we have on the team today and if any of the core playoff rotation players are injured, everything changes.

I feel that the core playoff rotation is sufficient, largely due to the multi-position versatility of many of the players.  It allow us to be at least 2 deep at each of the traditional positions.  These are the positions that these players can play in my opinion:

PG:  Smart, White, Brogdon
SG:  Brown, Brogdon, Smart, White
SF:   Tatum, Brown
PF:   Horford, Grant
C:    R.Williams, Horford

Again, you can quibble with me whether you think Tatum can play PF or Grant C but I think if you look at it this way that it is clear that we have more redundancy with our guards than with forwards or centers.  These are in my mind the positions that these players can play but you can deploy them in all sorts of combination, for example 1 big or 2 bigs.  You can play Tatum in a 1 big line up but to me, that just means you are playing 1 big, not that Tatum is a PF.

The other observation I will offer is that we now have a series of games this season that were played largely with 1 big as the primary line up (while RWill was out and White often starting) and now that he is back, we have a series of games where we have been largely back to the 2 big line up.  The Defrtg has improved some with RWill's return but not by as much as I would expect (abut 1 pt/100 poss in those 15 games, not all of which RWill played).  Overall though, I have seen the defense improve, or so it seems.  There have been several games with other players out so it is hard to do a pure sort on this.   I believe we are a better defensive team when we play with 2 bigs as the principle line up (and also a better team overall) and I think that will be the case in the playoffs also.

So back to the main question.  What to do to improve the team?  Where should the focus be?  If you think the best record is important, then a player who helps the regular season rotation, but potentially not the playoff rotation, could be something we need.  If you are like me, and not as concerned about adding to the regular season rotation unless it also improves the playoff rotation, then we should only add a player (assuming you are giving up at least draft picks) who is good enough to be expected to help the play off rotation.  Of course signing an available FA to a min contract changes the equation.  I don't mind signing another Griffin type player if we don't have to give up anything.  It is just that that type of move isn't helping the playoff rotation (and maybe not even helping the regular season rotation).

This got a bit long-winded (apologies), but bottom line, as we stand, our playoff rotation looks solid.  A bit guard heavy at the expense of big depth but still solid, and hard to improve upon without a trade that involves giving up something of value.

[Goldstar88]

I’m not comfortable with the depth and haven’t been since the season started. Now starters  are missing games with injury and guys like Hauser have come back down to earth. I do think that Brad will look to add a player or two at the trade deadline or through the buyout market. Unfortunately, we are going to have to wait another month or so for that..

[Big333223]

Same story as ever. A center and a wing. My bet is they'll pick up one or both on the buyout market.

Although Kornet might be fine as the backup center given Horford and Grant both see minutes at "center".

[Vermont Green]

I heard Chris Forsberg on the pregame show.  He said pretty much the same thing I have been saying (and this is not the first time, I truly suspect he is reading my posts  ).

His point was that he didn't think the Celtics would add anyone unless they would impact the playoff rotation.  The group that is the regular season rotation but not likely making the playoff rotation includes Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin (and Griffin may be out of the regular season rotation now that RWilliams is back).

So that to me is the main question.  Is it worth it to bring in someone who might be a little better than Griffin (for example) but who isn't going to play once the playoffs start?  To me, I don't think it is worth it to even be giving up 2nd round picks for that level of player.  Maybe after the trade deadline it is fine to pick up a FA and not give up anything.

Forsberg went on to specially talk about needing a wing with Hauser starting to regress to his mean, but didn't think there would be a good enough wing available and predicted no deal would happen.  NYK is reported to want 2 2nds for Reddish.  2 seconds for a player that probably would not even help us in the playoffs?  No thanks.  With Reddish though, he is on the edge of where he might help us in the playoffs.  Since he can't even crack the Knicks regular season rotation, I don't see it likely he cracks our playoff rotation.

[PAOBoston]

I heard Chris Forsberg on the pregame show.  He said pretty much the same thing I have been saying (and this is not the first time, I truly suspect he is reading my posts  ).

His point was that he didn't think the Celtics would add anyone unless they would impact the playoff rotation.  The group that is the regular season rotation but not likely making the playoff rotation includes Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin (and Griffin may be out of the regular season rotation now that RWilliams is back).

So that to me is the main question.  Is it worth it to bring in someone who might be a little better than Griffin (for example) but who isn't going to play once the playoffs start?  To me, I don't think it is worth it to even be giving up 2nd round picks for that level of player.  Maybe after the trade deadline it is fine to pick up a FA and not give up anything.

Forsberg went on to specially talk about needing a wing with Hauser starting to regress to his mean, but didn't think there would be a good enough wing available and predicted no deal would happen.

I don’t know how anyone who has watched this team and the players getting hurt consistently over the last few years can think this is a good idea. Smart/Timelord/JB all have an injury history. JT is banged up. Horford is old. There is a good likelihood they do not make it to playoffs unscathed.

They are trying to win championships, not rebuild. They need to add a viable wing for Hauser on the bench and another big man to to big man rotation. They may be tightening the rotation in the playoffs but they also can’t burn out the core before that point. They should be trying to get as much depth as they can to help JT and JB.

[Vermont Green]

I heard Chris Forsberg on the pregame show.  He said pretty much the same thing I have been saying (and this is not the first time, I truly suspect he is reading my posts  ).

His point was that he didn't think the Celtics would add anyone unless they would impact the playoff rotation.  The group that is the regular season rotation but not likely making the playoff rotation includes Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin (and Griffin may be out of the regular season rotation now that RWilliams is back).

So that to me is the main question.  Is it worth it to bring in someone who might be a little better than Griffin (for example) but who isn't going to play once the playoffs start?  To me, I don't think it is worth it to even be giving up 2nd round picks for that level of player.  Maybe after the trade deadline it is fine to pick up a FA and not give up anything.

Forsberg went on to specially talk about needing a wing with Hauser starting to regress to his mean, but didn't think there would be a good enough wing available and predicted no deal would happen.

I don’t know how anyone who has watched this team and the players getting hurt consistently over the last few years can think this is a good idea. Smart/Timelord/JB all have an injury history. JT is banged up. Horford is old. There is a good likelihood they do not make it to playoffs unscathed.

They are trying to win championships, not rebuild. They need to add a viable wing for Hauser on the bench and another big man to to big man rotation. They may be tightening the rotation in the playoffs but they also can’t burn out the core before that point. They should be trying to get as much depth as they can to help JT and JB.

Do you consider Reddish a viable wing?  Worth 2 second round picks?  He is just one name that have been floating around.  And if you don't consider Reddish "viable" who do you want to target and what are you willing to give up?  You can't add to the depth if you trade away from the current depth.

[PAOBoston]

I heard Chris Forsberg on the pregame show.  He said pretty much the same thing I have been saying (and this is not the first time, I truly suspect he is reading my posts  ).

His point was that he didn't think the Celtics would add anyone unless they would impact the playoff rotation.  The group that is the regular season rotation but not likely making the playoff rotation includes Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin (and Griffin may be out of the regular season rotation now that RWilliams is back).

So that to me is the main question.  Is it worth it to bring in someone who might be a little better than Griffin (for example) but who isn't going to play once the playoffs start?  To me, I don't think it is worth it to even be giving up 2nd round picks for that level of player.  Maybe after the trade deadline it is fine to pick up a FA and not give up anything.

Forsberg went on to specially talk about needing a wing with Hauser starting to regress to his mean, but didn't think there would be a good enough wing available and predicted no deal would happen.

I don’t know how anyone who has watched this team and the players getting hurt consistently over the last few years can think this is a good idea. Smart/Timelord/JB all have an injury history. JT is banged up. Horford is old. There is a good likelihood they do not make it to playoffs unscathed.

They are trying to win championships, not rebuild. They need to add a viable wing for Hauser on the bench and another big man to to big man rotation. They may be tightening the rotation in the playoffs but they also can’t burn out the core before that point. They should be trying to get as much depth as they can to help JT and JB.

Do you consider Reddish a viable wing?  Worth 2 second round picks?  He is just one name that have been floating around.  And if you don't consider Reddish "viable" who do you want to target and what are you willing to give up?  You can't add to the depth if you trade away from the current depth.

Smart/White/Brogdon/JB/JT/Horford/Timelord. That is your core. They should be willing to trade everyone else for potential upgrades.  I’m not saying bring in a star but someone who is better than Hauser or Justin Jackson. Using Pritchard/Gallinari/picks and the TPEs, I believe they can find something better.

[Vermont Green]

I heard Chris Forsberg on the pregame show.  He said pretty much the same thing I have been saying (and this is not the first time, I truly suspect he is reading my posts  ).

His point was that he didn't think the Celtics would add anyone unless they would impact the playoff rotation.  The group that is the regular season rotation but not likely making the playoff rotation includes Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin (and Griffin may be out of the regular season rotation now that RWilliams is back).

So that to me is the main question.  Is it worth it to bring in someone who might be a little better than Griffin (for example) but who isn't going to play once the playoffs start?  To me, I don't think it is worth it to even be giving up 2nd round picks for that level of player.  Maybe after the trade deadline it is fine to pick up a FA and not give up anything.

Forsberg went on to specially talk about needing a wing with Hauser starting to regress to his mean, but didn't think there would be a good enough wing available and predicted no deal would happen.

I don’t know how anyone who has watched this team and the players getting hurt consistently over the last few years can think this is a good idea. Smart/Timelord/JB all have an injury history. JT is banged up. Horford is old. There is a good likelihood they do not make it to playoffs unscathed.

They are trying to win championships, not rebuild. They need to add a viable wing for Hauser on the bench and another big man to to big man rotation. They may be tightening the rotation in the playoffs but they also can’t burn out the core before that point. They should be trying to get as much depth as they can to help JT and JB.

Do you consider Reddish a viable wing?  Worth 2 second round picks?  He is just one name that have been floating around.  And if you don't consider Reddish "viable" who do you want to target and what are you willing to give up?  You can't add to the depth if you trade away from the current depth.

Smart/White/Brogdon/JB/JT/Horford/Timelord. That is your core. They should be willing to trade everyone else for potential upgrades.  I’m not saying bring in a star but someone who is better than Hauser or Justin Jackson. Using Pritchard/Gallinari/picks and the TPEs, I believe they can find something better.

You left out Grant I think, I see him as part of the playoff core that you don't trade, I agree with you there for the most part.  I would actually consider trading White for a starter level PF if such a deal could be had.  But I don't see that as likely.

Where I disagree is that if all we are trading is Pritchard, Gallinari, and picks, I not sure we can get anything of value for that.  Reddish, a player that can't even get off the Knick's bench, is being shopper for 2 seconds (per reports).  If we can get a "viable" wing or big for that level of assets, great, I just don't see it.  Incoming players need to match a TPE or we have to send out matching salary that is attached to a player another team is willing to take back.

We will likely sign some scrap heap level depth help after the trade deadline, depending on if we do anything before the deadline.  But I foresee that getting us nothing more than Griffin level players, not even a Reddish level player.  Those level players may have some use through the regular season but really pretty minimal in my mind.  And no use at all once the playoffs start.  If we get to the point where we need to actually play that level of player in the playoffs, we are in trouble.

[PAOBoston]

I heard Chris Forsberg on the pregame show.  He said pretty much the same thing I have been saying (and this is not the first time, I truly suspect he is reading my posts  ).

His point was that he didn't think the Celtics would add anyone unless they would impact the playoff rotation.  The group that is the regular season rotation but not likely making the playoff rotation includes Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin (and Griffin may be out of the regular season rotation now that RWilliams is back).

So that to me is the main question.  Is it worth it to bring in someone who might be a little better than Griffin (for example) but who isn't going to play once the playoffs start?  To me, I don't think it is worth it to even be giving up 2nd round picks for that level of player.  Maybe after the trade deadline it is fine to pick up a FA and not give up anything.

Forsberg went on to specially talk about needing a wing with Hauser starting to regress to his mean, but didn't think there would be a good enough wing available and predicted no deal would happen.

I don’t know how anyone who has watched this team and the players getting hurt consistently over the last few years can think this is a good idea. Smart/Timelord/JB all have an injury history. JT is banged up. Horford is old. There is a good likelihood they do not make it to playoffs unscathed.

They are trying to win championships, not rebuild. They need to add a viable wing for Hauser on the bench and another big man to to big man rotation. They may be tightening the rotation in the playoffs but they also can’t burn out the core before that point. They should be trying to get as much depth as they can to help JT and JB.

Do you consider Reddish a viable wing?  Worth 2 second round picks?  He is just one name that have been floating around.  And if you don't consider Reddish "viable" who do you want to target and what are you willing to give up?  You can't add to the depth if you trade away from the current depth.

Smart/White/Brogdon/JB/JT/Horford/Timelord. That is your core. They should be willing to trade everyone else for potential upgrades.  I’m not saying bring in a star but someone who is better than Hauser or Justin Jackson. Using Pritchard/Gallinari/picks and the TPEs, I believe they can find something better.

You left out Grant I think, I see him as part of the playoff core that you don't trade, I agree with you there for the most part.  I would actually consider trading White for a starter level PF if such a deal could be had.  But I don't see that as likely.

Where I disagree is that if all we are trading is Pritchard, Gallinari, and picks, I not sure we can get anything of value for that.  Reddish, a player that can't even get off the Knick's bench, is being shopper for 2 seconds (per reports).  If we can get a "viable" wing or big for that level of assets, great, I just don't see it.  Incoming players need to match a TPE or we have to send out matching salary that is attached to a player another team is willing to take back.

We will likely sign some scrap heap level depth help after the trade deadline, depending on if we do anything before the deadline.  But I foresee that getting us nothing more than Griffin level players, not even a Reddish level player.  Those level players may have some use through the regular season but really pretty minimal in my mind.  And no use at all once the playoffs start.  If we get to the point where we need to actually play that level of player in the playoffs, we are in trouble.

I left Grant off the list because I don’t think the Cs are going to overpay for him to extend him so I think he has value and is tradeable. I don’t consider grant part of the “core”.

[Sophomore]

I would make a trade if it improved one of the 8 spots and gave us a better chance to win this year. But I can’t think of a gettable player who fits that mold. Which leaves us with buyouts and low-impact vets who can eat minutes in the regular season and will be there in an emergency. Unless Brad has some magic in his bag, this is our team - maybe adding a wing who’ll step in ahead of Hauser on the depth chart.

[bogg]

To reiterate, adding a "regular season only" type player isn't necessarily about maximizing regular season W/L (although that doesn't hurt), it's about getting guys to the playoffs healthy by reducing their workload in Feb/Mar/Apr.

Honestly not convinced a center is super necessary, unless someone unexpectedly good winds up available. Kornet and Griffin can probably shoulder plenty of extra regular season minutes as needed. A wing seems like a bigger need right now, but I'd prioritize getting a plug-and-play veteran cheap over trading assets for a young guy who needs playing time to figure his game out (like Reddish).

Some names that could be options, be it through trade, the current free agent list, or buyout guys: Rudy Gay (could re-stock a second or two for eating his money), Justin Holiday, Carmelo Anthony, Terrence Ross, Rodney McGruder, maybe even Will Barton.

[trickybilly]

I would make a trade if it improved one of the 8 spots and gave us a better chance to win this year. But I can’t think of a gettable player who fits that mold. Which leaves us with buyouts and low-impact vets who can eat minutes in the regular season and will be there in an emergency. Unless Brad has some magic in his bag, this is our team - maybe adding a wing who’ll step in ahead of Hauser on the depth chart.

Hauser's defense has been better than expected actually. He is having a rough shooting patch right now, but he is still an elite shooter. But a vet like Rudy G or Will Barton might be good in the playoffs as insurance

[Sophomore]

I would make a trade if it improved one of the 8 spots and gave us a better chance to win this year. But I can’t think of a gettable player who fits that mold. Which leaves us with buyouts and low-impact vets who can eat minutes in the regular season and will be there in an emergency. Unless Brad has some magic in his bag, this is our team - maybe adding a wing who’ll step in ahead of Hauser on the depth chart.

Hauser's defense has been better than expected actually. He is having a rough shooting patch right now, but he is still an elite shooter. But a vet like Rudy G or Will Barton might be good in the playoffs as insurance

Hauser’s defense was better than expected at the start of the year but it’s fallen off. I think at the start of the season teams were breaking their offensive rhythm/patterns trying to attack him. It showed. Now they’ve seen some film and they come into the game knowing what they want to do. I think if his d was holding up better they’d be letting him stay out there and shoot thru the slump. But whatever the reason he’s clearly on the outs. His minutes are way down.

[Moranis]

The team lacks size.  It is a real problem and has been all year and the lack of size makes the wing issue worse since the lack of size forces Tatum to play at PF more.  Rob has helped since he has been back, but with him and Al needing games off, they really could use another credible big man.  Kornet has played fine, I just don't trust him over the long haul. 

Some possible trades (some for bigs, some for swings)

McDaniels for Jackson, 25 1st (top 4)

Collins, Okongwu, Kaminsky for White, Gallinari, Jackson, Kornet, 2nd

Kaminsky for Jackson, 2nd, cash

Reddish for 2 2nd's

Toppin for 25 1st (lotto protected and if doesn't convey turns into 2 2nd's immediately so doesn't tie up future picks)

Vucevic, Caruso for White, Gallinari, Jackson, 2 2nd's

Z. Collins for Gallinari, Jackson, 2nd, cash

Olynyk, Vanderbilt, Gay for Gallinari, Grant, PP, 25 1st (lotto) - (2 trades to use TPE)

[td450]

As 9-12 guys go, I think Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Griffin can all be trusted and continue to think they are a big reason for the team's success.

Obviously, we haven't played Kornet and Hauser in a high pressure playoff game, but if we get to the point where we really need them to come through in the clutch for extended minutes, well... more than one important player has gotten hurt and we probably aren't going to go all the way anyway.

From here going forward, I think Stevens needs to see any moves as longer term roster fits. If he gets a shot at a big who can play our style of defense, he needs to consider it. But he shouldn't be pressured into making one more move this season that compromises that longer term search. Getting a big to cover the slow decline and eventual retirement of Horford matters more than any other roster issue by far. Fixing that will require patience.