Al will rebuff leaving for a couple dollars, give a hometown disclunt, and get a decent contract in the $12M AAV range. I see him prioritizing winning in Boston and stability over leaving over money issues. The Sixers/Thunder seasons have to be fresh in his mind. He’s highly valued here and I think he retires a Celtic.
I think Grant will get 20-50% more than Al; not because he’s a more important or productive player right now, but he’ll be 24 next offseason and projects to be over the life of the contract.
They’re making $30.8M this season with Al taking up 85% of it. I think that they’ll try to hold to that figure with Grant taking a 60% split.
Every player on this team except for Al and Malcolm are signed to a discounted rate, Al will leave money on the table to stay beyond next season, there’ll be a significant rise in the salary cap, and this team is one of the most profitable teams in the league, Wyc has no excuse to let Al or Grant walk because of money.
For me, the real salary cap issue will be in 2024-25 when Jaylen gets a significant raise, Payton gets an extension and increase in minutes, White and Brogdon will be expiring, and we have to choose between two of the three guards to continue the dynasty.
I wouldn’t count on Al taking a discount. We’ve seen him leave the Hawks and the Celtics when he felt he wasn’t being negotiated with for his full value. Maybe that changes this time because he knows he’s at the end of his career, but it would definitely be a change in how he/his agent handles things.
I would
he won't get a contract matching what he has now but he's going to look to get as much as he can in what will likely be his final one. if he takes less than $18 mill a year, I'd be surprised unless his productivity just dies off this season in which case, C's likely won't want him back.
Who do you think will offer more than $18 million per year?
No one. Outside of Boston Horford will be valued, at best, as a non-taxpayer MLE free agent. $10-13 million a year on a three year deal sounds about right for him to stay here.
I'm not sure who'll have cap room to get him but my viewpoint is based more on how much of a cut that would already be. If he's productive this year I really wonder how much of a reduction he'd take to stay a C. I'd gladly pay him half his current deal or less but I just don't see him taking that much of a cut
It won't matter what he wants. What matters is what someone is willing to offer. No one outside the Celtics is going to give a 37 year old Horford anything more than a non-taxpayer MLE for 2-3 years. No one.
So if Boston offers say a 3 year $36 million contract with the last year a team option or partially guaranteed, Horford is going to take it because it's slightly above market value and because both he and his wife love Boston and love the team.
I want to clarify that people have been using this year's MLE, which is $33 million in a 3-year deal. That's what PJ Tucker got. Next year will be 3 years, ~$36 million. Al Horford is better than PJ Tucker, and will absolutely get that from someone. The Celtics will exceed that by a polite amount, presumably, which is why it'll probably be 3 years $40 million.
Memphis could make it interesting, however, if they let Dillon Brooks walk, because they could have ~$14 million in cap space and an otherwise complete roster. They could probably offer Horford somewhere around 3 years, $45 million if they liked him enough. It wouldn't fit into the pattern of how they've built that team, but they have the ability to offer someone about a 25% premium on the MLE if they so choose.
TP
The projected MLE for nest year is $11.37M based on a $134M cap.
I think most would agree this is the number to negotiate off of.
Al is an integral part of what has been the best team in the NBA for the 50 or so regular season games.
He's our starting PF who has been filling in as our starting C.
Barring trades, the Celtics don't have much to replace him.
He's also 36 years old and there are market constraints that limit what other teams can offer.
I think being polite, as Celtics2021, or "negotiating in good faith" is important to Al, and a lot of players.
I think to a lot of players this is perceived as "respect"
In the past at least, Al has shown a willingness to walk, if he feels he's being jerked around.
So a 3/40 contract isn't necessarily outrageous. It might be "above market"
But if it's a descending contract with a partial guarantee or team option for the last year it probably fair for both sides.
Al feels respected.
The team has some protection if Al's play falls off.
If a team like Memphis somehow gets involved, maybe Al takes a discount, because he feels like he wasn't "jerked around"