NBA Season 2022-23

[Moranis]

Interesting note, the Heat have basically gone from the best 3 point shooting team in the league last year to one of the worst this year.  The only time in history that has happened before was the Warriors when they lost Durant, Klay was hurt, and Curry only played 5 games following the season they lost to Toronto in the finals.  Of course the Heat have mostly the same roster, which is what makes it so strange.

That's the issue with Miami this season. They are simply missing shots. Even wide open ones, they are bricking. It's not like their defense is terrible either, but their shooters are shooting poorly so none of it really matters.

I still think MIA is a tricky opponent because if they find their shot again, they will be tough for anyone. And Butler is a playoff beast

I guess the question is more, was last year a fluke or this year a fluke (or sort of meet in the middle kind of thing).  Take Martin, he played 18 games a rookie shooting 54.1% from 3 on 2.1 attempts.  His 2nd year he was at 2.4 attempts but just 24.8%.  Last year he was 41.3% on 2.6 attempts and this year on 3.6 attempts he is 36.3%.  So kind of all over the map.  His career percentage is 36.3% which is exactly what he is shooting this year.  Herro is pretty much in the range of prior years as well 38.9 to 36 to 39.9 and now 36.8.  So not a career low, but not the career high that was last year.  Strus is way down from last year going from 41 to 33.5, but the year before last he was 33.8.  Lowry is at his lowest point since 2010 and he is still shooting a ton, so that is a real problem.  Vincent is off from his career high last year, but is still better than either of his 1st two years.  Robinson is way off of prior years, I suppose inconsistent playing time will do that to a shooter i.e. a guy that needs consistency.

It almost seems like all their young players decided that last year was the year they were going to set their career high. 

[celticsclay]

Love struggling with heat only at about 28% from 3. Guess this is why cavs were willing to let him walk. Wonder if he retires at end of season.

[Kernewek]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

Possibly, but I think Simmons's physical gifts will keep him on more teams and in the league longer than Rondo, provided he still wants to play basketball.

Wow people still have crazy high hopes. Rondo was in league till he was 36. I would be probably the most shocked of anything I have seen in basketball my whole life if simmons was in the league longer than that. What exactly is he doing at 35 as a non shooter that has lost his athleticism? At least rondo improved his shot throughout his career significantly.

Well, for starters, Rondo was 35 at the end of his NBA career. Further, his age (like the age of most athletes) is largely incidental to do with his NBA career, for reasons that should be obvious - i.e. it lets us presume that the half-season he played at the end of his career is as important as the seasons he played as the starting PG for an NBA Finals calibre team.

Instead, it might make more sense to look at games played. Rondo notched 957, Simmons is just under a third of the way there so far with 312. Simmons has missed two seasons as a DNP, and is a third of the way to the GP mark at 4.5 seasons. He has two more years under his current contract - since he's averaging about 68 games per season when he decides to play, that would put him at about 130 more games at the end of his current deal, or 400-ish overall, since that 312 includes the 42 he's already played this year.

Again, assuming Ben Simmons cares about basketball, I think he can very easily hit 900ish games in the NBA, simply because he's just like Rondo but has the advantage of being taller, more athletic [ed: based on his return so far vs latter-day Rondo, I should specify], and the potential of being a better defender owing to those immutable attributes. I wouldn't say that's high hopes, I'd say that's a basic understanding of mathematics.

But, if you want to hang your hat on age, here is a question for you: if there was a place in the league for Rondo to limp along as a bench player for four seasons starting at the age of 32, how is it a massive leap to see Simmons do the same thing, save his apparent indifference for basketball?

I think this is an enormous assumption to make. Rondo was still a valuable role-player post-prime, whereas Simmons has become a complete shell of himself. I don't know if there's a compromise to be made between Simmons' real value (very low) and his ego/greed when he becomes a FA

Of course - he's got the mental strength of tissue paper. But all else being equal, it's not a particularly big ask to be such a big contributor that you 'average 9 4 and 7' 

[gouki88]

So I guess the Bucks aren’t going to lose to Orlando 3x then.

Bucks look unbeatable. they just have all the tools to dominate tbh.

And please lets stop the talk that our B team almost beat them because our A team was dismatlned by the freakin Knicks and Thunder... heck we can't even beat the Magic.

Did you forget us beating them by 21 on Christmas? Or does it not count when we do well?

Adding Middleton and Crowder is worth significantly more than adding Muscala.

Not with how bad Middleton has looked this season. He's been a poor man's Brogdon this season

[celticsclay]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

Possibly, but I think Simmons's physical gifts will keep him on more teams and in the league longer than Rondo, provided he still wants to play basketball.

Wow people still have crazy high hopes. Rondo was in league till he was 36. I would be probably the most shocked of anything I have seen in basketball my whole life if simmons was in the league longer than that. What exactly is he doing at 35 as a non shooter that has lost his athleticism? At least rondo improved his shot throughout his career significantly.

Well, for starters, Rondo was 35 at the end of his NBA career. Further, his age (like the age of most athletes) is largely incidental to do with his NBA career, for reasons that should be obvious - i.e. it lets us presume that the half-season he played at the end of his career is as important as the seasons he played as the starting PG for an NBA Finals calibre team.

Instead, it might make more sense to look at games played. Rondo notched 957, Simmons is just under a third of the way there so far with 312. Simmons has missed two seasons as a DNP, and is a third of the way to the GP mark at 4.5 seasons. He has two more years under his current contract - since he's averaging about 68 games per season when he decides to play, that would put him at about 130 more games at the end of his current deal, or 400-ish overall, since that 312 includes the 42 he's already played this year.

Again, assuming Ben Simmons cares about basketball, I think he can very easily hit 900ish games in the NBA, simply because he's just like Rondo but has the advantage of being taller, more athletic [ed: based on his return so far vs latter-day Rondo, I should specify], and the potential of being a better defender owing to those immutable attributes. I wouldn't say that's high hopes, I'd say that's a basic understanding of mathematics.

But, if you want to hang your hat on age, here is a question for you: if there was a place in the league for Rondo to limp along as a bench player for four seasons starting at the age of 32, how is it a massive leap to see Simmons do the same thing, save his apparent indifference for basketball?

I think this is an enormous assumption to make. Rondo was still a valuable role-player post-prime, whereas Simmons has become a complete shell of himself. I don't know if there's a compromise to be made between Simmons' real value (very low) and his ego/greed when he becomes a FA

Of course - he's got the mental strength of tissue paper. But all else being equal, it's not a particularly big ask to be such a big contributor that you 'average 9 4 and 7' 

This is kind of funny given simmons is in his physical prime and is averaging a cool 7, 6, 6. History certainly doesn’t show a lot of guys putting up better numbers at 35 than 26.

[Kernewek]

Which is it - is he in his prime or is he suffering from a bad back?

It wouldn’t be terribly surprising for him to play 600 more nba games. That’s the hill you’re trying to die on here.

[celticsclay]

Which is it - is he in his prime or is he suffering from a bad back?

It wouldn’t be terribly surprising for him to play 600 more nba games. That’s the hill you’re trying to die on here.

These are clearly not mutually exclusive. He is in his prime but he has a bad back. I don’t think there is a player in nba history that had back injuries and surgery where it was somehow better in their 30’s. Larry bird for example had a back when he was still close to his prime. However it never got better and ended his career prematurely.
I would be absolutely astounded simmons had a real long career at this point. This is also the first time you acknowledged the back injury so you are clearly not arguing in good faith here. We can agree to disagree. In my opinion it would be  one of the more surprising things in nba history of Simmons has a long career like rondo at this point. It is certainly not trending in that direction.

[Kernewek]

it was clearly my mistake to presume that we could avoid accounting for every obvious problem with Ben Simmons to discuss his relative longevity.

He’s also terrified of shooting the ball - should we talk about that one as well?

[celticsclay]

it was clearly my mistake to presume that we could avoid accounting for every obvious problem with Ben Simmons to discuss his relative longevity.

He’s also terrified of shooting the ball - should we talk about that one as well?

I’m confused. If you are discussing a players longevity, isn’t having a chronic health issue literally the most important factor? I’ll admit you got me confused what your argument even is at this point.

Is it if simmons chronic back injuries heal AND he does actually want to play basketball AND he changes his mental approach to the game fundamentally he could have a long career? Cause this was probably the biggest waste of time for both of us if this is your actual point.

[Phantom255x]

Wow, Kyrie and Doncic TORCHING the Sixers now

[Moranis]

15-0 run from the Sixers at the start of the 4th.  4 point game now.

[Phantom255x]

15-0 run from the Sixers at the start of the 4th.  4 point game now.

Lol if the Mavs end up losing this then I think they are cooked the rest of the season. Won’t be long before Kyrie goes nuclear probably

[celticsclay]

First time mavs have shown a little fight. Back up 11. Already a long shot, a loss here would come close to locking Philly into third spot

[Goldstar88]

Wow, Kyrie and Doncic TORCHING the Sixers now

Yeah, those two are going off. Wow.

[celticsclay]

76ers fall short. 4 games behind Celtics with 20 left and Celtics have tiebreaker (least I assume). 76ers play bucks tomorrow in a game I don’t know who to root for.