NBA Season 2022-23

[trickybilly]

New looks mavs seem to be awful

It's quite impressive how that trade killed their season. They didn't even have the post-trade honeymoon that Kyrie is usually good for before he blows up.

Practice makes perfect.  So Kyrie should be really good at killing a team now.

Kemba went from Max guy to 2 year 8 mill deal (waived sixty days later) to earning vet min within about 14 months.

I can't wait to see what his next contract looks like.

I don't mean that meanly, just that, this could be historic.

[Goldstar88]

New looks mavs seem to be awful

It's quite impressive how that trade killed their season. They didn't even have the post-trade honeymoon that Kyrie is usually good for before he blows up.

Practice makes perfect.  So Kyrie should be really good at killing a team now.

Kemba went from Max guy to 2 year 8 mill deal (waived sixty days later) to earning vet min within about 14 months.

I can't wait to see what his next contract looks like.

I don't mean that meanly, just that, this could be historic.

Kyrie can still play, though. Kemba couldn’t.

[Phantom255x]

Just to put this to bed. Simmons is owed 77 million fully guaranteed over next two years. No team is taking that in the NBA except for maybe heat with Robinson but even then probably takes a first at least. Getting him for an expiring contract and taking on an extra 40 million of dead money for Charlotte? This is insane. I’m gonna give the benefit of the doubt that people didn’t understand how bad his contract was.

Ben is overpaid, but a team like the Spurs could use him to play alongside Johnson and Vasell. Not like free agents are lining up to go play in San Antonio.

Simmons for McDermott, Grahm, and Birch works in the trade machine. Those 3 players aren’t going to be part of the rebuild in SA anyway.

Are the nets giving up three first round picks as part of this trade? Cause otherwise no. This is very baffling to me. 77 million guaranteed to a small market team for a guy that hasn’t played in two years. Can someone try to make a coherent discussion on why Charlotte or spurs would consider this even if they got picks? Charlotte has been trying to dump salary all season for guys like rozier and oubre that actually are decent nba players.

Sure. Nets give up Simmons, plus a first and get McDermott, Grahm, and Birch from SA. So the Spurs are giving up 3 players that aren’t part of the rebuild and roll the dice on Simmons fitting in with Vasell and Johnson. If Ben can get back to 80% of what he was in Philly, that’s a pretty solid trio. Makes sense for both teams.

I would imagine the most owed salary the spurs have ever taken on in a trade is less than simmons makes the next two years. You are really underselling how bad simmons contract is. If any team would consider it would be a big market team but even then he has to show he can stay on the court for even 20 games before anyone would even start to consider touching him.

Normally I'd completely agree with you, but I feel like we say that all the time yet these guys like Simmons, Westbrook, John Wall, etc. end up traded anyways. And sometimes in exchange for other disgruntled, flawed players, but teams can become desperate and hope something works.

I don't think San Antonio is likely though. Idk if Pop retires after this season, but I also wonder if after the whole Kawhi saga near the end of his Spurs tenure that the organization probably wants to avoid another set of potential drama with Simmons.

Portland IMO is a sleeper team. The fit in theory looks good, and if the Blazers have an early playoff exit again, I could see them adding Simmons and hoping a change of scenery to a mid-market team (not big-market) could help. Lillard could help reign him in. And I'm sure BKN would have to add an asset or two to make it work.

[tazzmaniac]

Just to put this to bed. Simmons is owed 77 million fully guaranteed over next two years. No team is taking that in the NBA except for maybe heat with Robinson but even then probably takes a first at least. Getting him for an expiring contract and taking on an extra 40 million of dead money for Charlotte? This is insane. I’m gonna give the benefit of the doubt that people didn’t understand how bad his contract was.

Ben is overpaid, but a team like the Spurs could use him to play alongside Johnson and Vasell. Not like free agents are lining up to go play in San Antonio.

Simmons for McDermott, Grahm, and Birch works in the trade machine. Those 3 players aren’t going to be part of the rebuild in SA anyway.

Are the nets giving up three first round picks as part of this trade? Cause otherwise no. This is very baffling to me. 77 million guaranteed to a small market team for a guy that hasn’t played in two years. Can someone try to make a coherent discussion on why Charlotte or spurs would consider this even if they got picks? Charlotte has been trying to dump salary all season for guys like rozier and oubre that actually are decent nba players.

Sure. Nets give up Simmons, plus a first and get McDermott, Grahm, and Birch from SA. So the Spurs are giving up 3 players that aren’t part of the rebuild and roll the dice on Simmons fitting in with Vasell and Johnson. If Ben can get back to 80% of what he was in Philly, that’s a pretty solid trio. Makes sense for both teams.

I would imagine the most owed salary the spurs have ever taken on in a trade is less than simmons makes the next two years. You are really underselling how bad simmons contract is. If any team would consider it would be a big market team but even then he has to show he can stay on the court for even 20 games before anyone would even start to consider touching him.

Normally I'd completely agree with you, but I feel like we say that all the time yet these guys like Simmons, Westbrook, John Wall, etc. end up traded anyways. And sometimes in exchange for other disgruntled, flawed players, but teams can become desperate and hope something works.

I don't think San Antonio is likely though. Idk if Pop retires after this season, but I also wonder if after the whole Kawhi saga near the end of his Spurs tenure that the organization probably wants to avoid another set of potential drama with Simmons.

Portland IMO is a sleeper team. The fit in theory looks good, and if the Blazers have an early playoff exit again, I could see them adding Simmons and hoping a change of scenery to a mid-market team (not big-market) could help. Lillard could help reign him in. And I'm sure BKN would have to add an asset or two to make it work.

What is the Nets incentive to give up an asset or two to trade Simmons? 

[Phantom255x]

Just to put this to bed. Simmons is owed 77 million fully guaranteed over next two years. No team is taking that in the NBA except for maybe heat with Robinson but even then probably takes a first at least. Getting him for an expiring contract and taking on an extra 40 million of dead money for Charlotte? This is insane. I’m gonna give the benefit of the doubt that people didn’t understand how bad his contract was.

Ben is overpaid, but a team like the Spurs could use him to play alongside Johnson and Vasell. Not like free agents are lining up to go play in San Antonio.

Simmons for McDermott, Grahm, and Birch works in the trade machine. Those 3 players aren’t going to be part of the rebuild in SA anyway.

Are the nets giving up three first round picks as part of this trade? Cause otherwise no. This is very baffling to me. 77 million guaranteed to a small market team for a guy that hasn’t played in two years. Can someone try to make a coherent discussion on why Charlotte or spurs would consider this even if they got picks? Charlotte has been trying to dump salary all season for guys like rozier and oubre that actually are decent nba players.

Sure. Nets give up Simmons, plus a first and get McDermott, Grahm, and Birch from SA. So the Spurs are giving up 3 players that aren’t part of the rebuild and roll the dice on Simmons fitting in with Vasell and Johnson. If Ben can get back to 80% of what he was in Philly, that’s a pretty solid trio. Makes sense for both teams.

I would imagine the most owed salary the spurs have ever taken on in a trade is less than simmons makes the next two years. You are really underselling how bad simmons contract is. If any team would consider it would be a big market team but even then he has to show he can stay on the court for even 20 games before anyone would even start to consider touching him.

Normally I'd completely agree with you, but I feel like we say that all the time yet these guys like Simmons, Westbrook, John Wall, etc. end up traded anyways. And sometimes in exchange for other disgruntled, flawed players, but teams can become desperate and hope something works.

I don't think San Antonio is likely though. Idk if Pop retires after this season, but I also wonder if after the whole Kawhi saga near the end of his Spurs tenure that the organization probably wants to avoid another set of potential drama with Simmons.

Portland IMO is a sleeper team. The fit in theory looks good, and if the Blazers have an early playoff exit again, I could see them adding Simmons and hoping a change of scenery to a mid-market team (not big-market) could help. Lillard could help reign him in. And I'm sure BKN would have to add an asset or two to make it work.

What is the Nets incentive to give up an asset or two to trade Simmons?

So there's probably not, but the Nets did get back a lot from both the KD + Kyrie deals. If BKN wants to open up a potential max slot and they love someone this offseason, I could see them doing it.

I think the organization is sick of him anyways, including the head coach who has literally rolled his eyes when talking about him before.

[Who]

It sounds like Cam Johnson is going to get at least $25-30mil on his next deal so they won't be freeing up much cap space by dealing Ben Simmons away. Cam will be eating most of that up.

Maybe they will be willing to give up assets to get rid of Ben Simmons' contract in order to avoid the luxury tax ... rather than to free up cap space.

[Moranis]

Just to put this to bed. Simmons is owed 77 million fully guaranteed over next two years. No team is taking that in the NBA except for maybe heat with Robinson but even then probably takes a first at least. Getting him for an expiring contract and taking on an extra 40 million of dead money for Charlotte? This is insane. I’m gonna give the benefit of the doubt that people didn’t understand how bad his contract was.

Ben is overpaid, but a team like the Spurs could use him to play alongside Johnson and Vasell. Not like free agents are lining up to go play in San Antonio.

Simmons for McDermott, Grahm, and Birch works in the trade machine. Those 3 players aren’t going to be part of the rebuild in SA anyway.

Are the nets giving up three first round picks as part of this trade? Cause otherwise no. This is very baffling to me. 77 million guaranteed to a small market team for a guy that hasn’t played in two years. Can someone try to make a coherent discussion on why Charlotte or spurs would consider this even if they got picks? Charlotte has been trying to dump salary all season for guys like rozier and oubre that actually are decent nba players.

Sure. Nets give up Simmons, plus a first and get McDermott, Grahm, and Birch from SA. So the Spurs are giving up 3 players that aren’t part of the rebuild and roll the dice on Simmons fitting in with Vasell and Johnson. If Ben can get back to 80% of what he was in Philly, that’s a pretty solid trio. Makes sense for both teams.

I would imagine the most owed salary the spurs have ever taken on in a trade is less than simmons makes the next two years. You are really underselling how bad simmons contract is. If any team would consider it would be a big market team but even then he has to show he can stay on the court for even 20 games before anyone would even start to consider touching him.

Normally I'd completely agree with you, but I feel like we say that all the time yet these guys like Simmons, Westbrook, John Wall, etc. end up traded anyways. And sometimes in exchange for other disgruntled, flawed players, but teams can become desperate and hope something works.

I don't think San Antonio is likely though. Idk if Pop retires after this season, but I also wonder if after the whole Kawhi saga near the end of his Spurs tenure that the organization probably wants to avoid another set of potential drama with Simmons.

Portland IMO is a sleeper team. The fit in theory looks good, and if the Blazers have an early playoff exit again, I could see them adding Simmons and hoping a change of scenery to a mid-market team (not big-market) could help. Lillard could help reign him in. And I'm sure BKN would have to add an asset or two to make it work.

Portland on some level makes sense, but the trade does not.  The only salaries they have over the summer to trade are Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, Sharpe, Johnson Brown III, Walker.  Of those Nurkic is the only guy that would make sense to move in the trade, but his 16 million or so is no where near enough to acquire Simmons.  They don't have a good way to clear the cap space either.  I suppose a sign and trade of Grant for Simmons could potentially work, but that isn't a good trade off for Portland, they need to keep Grant and add Simmons for it to make sense. 

[Phantom255x]

Just to put this to bed. Simmons is owed 77 million fully guaranteed over next two years. No team is taking that in the NBA except for maybe heat with Robinson but even then probably takes a first at least. Getting him for an expiring contract and taking on an extra 40 million of dead money for Charlotte? This is insane. I’m gonna give the benefit of the doubt that people didn’t understand how bad his contract was.

Ben is overpaid, but a team like the Spurs could use him to play alongside Johnson and Vasell. Not like free agents are lining up to go play in San Antonio.

Simmons for McDermott, Grahm, and Birch works in the trade machine. Those 3 players aren’t going to be part of the rebuild in SA anyway.

Are the nets giving up three first round picks as part of this trade? Cause otherwise no. This is very baffling to me. 77 million guaranteed to a small market team for a guy that hasn’t played in two years. Can someone try to make a coherent discussion on why Charlotte or spurs would consider this even if they got picks? Charlotte has been trying to dump salary all season for guys like rozier and oubre that actually are decent nba players.

Sure. Nets give up Simmons, plus a first and get McDermott, Grahm, and Birch from SA. So the Spurs are giving up 3 players that aren’t part of the rebuild and roll the dice on Simmons fitting in with Vasell and Johnson. If Ben can get back to 80% of what he was in Philly, that’s a pretty solid trio. Makes sense for both teams.

I would imagine the most owed salary the spurs have ever taken on in a trade is less than simmons makes the next two years. You are really underselling how bad simmons contract is. If any team would consider it would be a big market team but even then he has to show he can stay on the court for even 20 games before anyone would even start to consider touching him.

Normally I'd completely agree with you, but I feel like we say that all the time yet these guys like Simmons, Westbrook, John Wall, etc. end up traded anyways. And sometimes in exchange for other disgruntled, flawed players, but teams can become desperate and hope something works.

I don't think San Antonio is likely though. Idk if Pop retires after this season, but I also wonder if after the whole Kawhi saga near the end of his Spurs tenure that the organization probably wants to avoid another set of potential drama with Simmons.

Portland IMO is a sleeper team. The fit in theory looks good, and if the Blazers have an early playoff exit again, I could see them adding Simmons and hoping a change of scenery to a mid-market team (not big-market) could help. Lillard could help reign him in. And I'm sure BKN would have to add an asset or two to make it work.

Portland on some level makes sense, but the trade does not.  The only salaries they have over the summer to trade are Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, Sharpe, Johnson Brown III, Walker.  Of those Nurkic is the only guy that would make sense to move in the trade, but his 16 million or so is no where near enough to acquire Simmons.  They don't have a good way to clear the cap space either.  I suppose a sign and trade of Grant for Simmons could potentially work, but that isn't a good trade off for Portland, they need to keep Grant and add Simmons for it to make sense.

Yeah I'll admit I didn't look at the NBA Trade Machine before saying that, but I remember seeing on the Blazers Reddit page some posts about trading for Simmons this offseason.

Portland's kind of in that no-man's land position. They need to find that other star to pair with Lillard and Simons, but idk if that's there. Butler? Bam? Embiid if he asks out this summer? Idk.

[Moranis]

Just to put this to bed. Simmons is owed 77 million fully guaranteed over next two years. No team is taking that in the NBA except for maybe heat with Robinson but even then probably takes a first at least. Getting him for an expiring contract and taking on an extra 40 million of dead money for Charlotte? This is insane. I’m gonna give the benefit of the doubt that people didn’t understand how bad his contract was.

Ben is overpaid, but a team like the Spurs could use him to play alongside Johnson and Vasell. Not like free agents are lining up to go play in San Antonio.

Simmons for McDermott, Grahm, and Birch works in the trade machine. Those 3 players aren’t going to be part of the rebuild in SA anyway.

Are the nets giving up three first round picks as part of this trade? Cause otherwise no. This is very baffling to me. 77 million guaranteed to a small market team for a guy that hasn’t played in two years. Can someone try to make a coherent discussion on why Charlotte or spurs would consider this even if they got picks? Charlotte has been trying to dump salary all season for guys like rozier and oubre that actually are decent nba players.

Sure. Nets give up Simmons, plus a first and get McDermott, Grahm, and Birch from SA. So the Spurs are giving up 3 players that aren’t part of the rebuild and roll the dice on Simmons fitting in with Vasell and Johnson. If Ben can get back to 80% of what he was in Philly, that’s a pretty solid trio. Makes sense for both teams.

I would imagine the most owed salary the spurs have ever taken on in a trade is less than simmons makes the next two years. You are really underselling how bad simmons contract is. If any team would consider it would be a big market team but even then he has to show he can stay on the court for even 20 games before anyone would even start to consider touching him.

Normally I'd completely agree with you, but I feel like we say that all the time yet these guys like Simmons, Westbrook, John Wall, etc. end up traded anyways. And sometimes in exchange for other disgruntled, flawed players, but teams can become desperate and hope something works.

I don't think San Antonio is likely though. Idk if Pop retires after this season, but I also wonder if after the whole Kawhi saga near the end of his Spurs tenure that the organization probably wants to avoid another set of potential drama with Simmons.

Portland IMO is a sleeper team. The fit in theory looks good, and if the Blazers have an early playoff exit again, I could see them adding Simmons and hoping a change of scenery to a mid-market team (not big-market) could help. Lillard could help reign him in. And I'm sure BKN would have to add an asset or two to make it work.

Portland on some level makes sense, but the trade does not.  The only salaries they have over the summer to trade are Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, Sharpe, Johnson Brown III, Walker.  Of those Nurkic is the only guy that would make sense to move in the trade, but his 16 million or so is no where near enough to acquire Simmons.  They don't have a good way to clear the cap space either.  I suppose a sign and trade of Grant for Simmons could potentially work, but that isn't a good trade off for Portland, they need to keep Grant and add Simmons for it to make sense.

Yeah I'll admit I didn't look at the NBA Trade Machine before saying that, but I remember seeing on the Blazers Reddit page some posts about trading for Simmons this offseason.

Portland's kind of in that no-man's land position. They need to find that other star to pair with Lillard and Simons, but idk if that's there. Butler? Bam? Embiid if he asks out this summer? Idk.

This one potentially works monetarily and may have the value right

Simmons, Bridges for Simons, Nurkic, and salary filler

I'm not sure either team would do that and I don't really know how either team would view Bridges and Simons in the trade, but I do think Bridges is better than Simons, so Portland would upgrade there, and while taking on Simmons money, get a look at him.  That would be an interesting trade.

[Who]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

[Kernewek]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

Possibly, but I think Simmons's physical gifts will keep him on more teams and in the league longer than Rondo, provided he still wants to play basketball.

[Vermont Green]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

The only trade that I can see for Simmons is where some really bad team is willing to take Simmons and a pick or some other prospect capital, in exchange for some moderately valued salary filler.  The Horford trade from Philly to OKC may be a model:

Philadelphia 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey announced today that the team has acquired Danny Green, Terrance Ferguson and Vincent Poirier from the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for Al Horford, a 2025 protected first-round pick and the draft rights to Théo Maledon (No. 34 selection in 2020 NBA Draft) and Vasilije Micić (No. 52 selection in 2014 NBA Draft). The 2025 first-round pick is protected for pick Nos. 1-6,

2 more seasons at nearly $40M per is way more than any actual competing team is going to take on.  In addition to likely mental health issues, there are physical health issues.  I don't think it even works if the "attached value" is an actual player.  Maybe a high ceiling young player on a good contract, could work.  But I don't know that this would be worth it for the Nets.  Do they really want to give up picks or a good young player just to dump Simmons?

[celticsclay]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

Possibly, but I think Simmons's physical gifts will keep him on more teams and in the league longer than Rondo, provided he still wants to play basketball.

Wow people still have crazy high hopes. Rondo was in league till he was 36. I would be probably the most shocked of anything I have seen in basketball my whole life if simmons was in the league longer than that. What exactly is he doing at 35 as a non shooter that has lost his athleticism? At least rondo improved his shot throughout his career significantly.

On top of that he already has a really bad back in his mid twenties. Those don’t magically heal. Just some really surprising reads on Simmons here.

I’m trying to remember did people think Greg Oden was going to magically turn it around when he was on the heat?

[Vermont Green]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

Possibly, but I think Simmons's physical gifts will keep him on more teams and in the league longer than Rondo, provided he still wants to play basketball.

Wow people still have crazy high hopes. Rondo was in league till he was 36. I would be probably the most shocked of anything I have seen in basketball my whole life if simmons was in the league longer than that. What exactly is he doing at 35 as a non shooter that has lost his athleticism? At least rondo improved his shot throughout his career significantly.

Yeah, there are similarities between Rondo and Simmons.  Freakish athleticism and court vision along with crippling lack of shooting touch.   But Rondo was Rondo, you knew he was durable and you knew he would compete.  You don't know with Simmons.  If you could get the Simmons from 2017-2020 who could score 15-17 pts along with 8ish boards and 8ish assists, you can live with that.  But if the current Simmons who basically gives you nothing and can hardly play due to injuries and other issues, is the Simmons for the rest of his career, that is a very different thing and not comparable to Rondo at all.

At this point, any team that would acquire Simmons with the belief that they can "fix" him, would be taking a huge risk.  Sure, the potential reward is a 3rd team all NBA level, all star player, but it has been two full seasons since you have seen anything close to that player.  Add in the financial cost to take him on and to me, this adds up to a risk that no team is going to take.  Maybe if you attach enough value to him, some team will take him and just write it off but even that is probably pretty unlikely at this point.

[Kernewek]

Feels like Simmons has moved into a similar territory as Rondo did after leaving the Celtics. Rondo was still a really good player but he was such an awkward fit with his lack of jump-shooting that he was too hard to fit in for most teams. So his contracts went way down, it felt like he was looking for a new team each year.

And Simmons is playing worse and MIA in more games than Rondo was back then.

I don't think Simmons is going to find a new home. I think he is going to become a journeyman player going from team to team that is willing to try a non-shooting forward before deciding they'd rather have someone that doesn't screw up their floor spacing. Just like what happened with Rondo at PG.

Possibly, but I think Simmons's physical gifts will keep him on more teams and in the league longer than Rondo, provided he still wants to play basketball.

Wow people still have crazy high hopes. Rondo was in league till he was 36. I would be probably the most shocked of anything I have seen in basketball my whole life if simmons was in the league longer than that. What exactly is he doing at 35 as a non shooter that has lost his athleticism? At least rondo improved his shot throughout his career significantly.

Well, for starters, Rondo was 35 at the end of his NBA career. Further, his age (like the age of most athletes) is largely incidental to do with his NBA career, for reasons that should be obvious - i.e. it lets us presume that the half-season he played at the end of his career is as important as the seasons he played as the starting PG for an NBA Finals calibre team.

Instead, it might make more sense to look at games played. Rondo notched 957, Simmons is just under a third of the way there so far with 312. Simmons has missed two seasons as a DNP, and is a third of the way to the GP mark at 4.5 seasons. He has two more years under his current contract - since he's averaging about 68 games per season when he decides to play, that would put him at about 130 more games at the end of his current deal, or 400-ish overall, since that 312 includes the 42 he's already played this year.

Again, assuming Ben Simmons cares about basketball, I think he can very easily hit 900ish games in the NBA, simply because he's just like Rondo but has the advantage of being taller, more athletic [ed: based on his return so far vs latter-day Rondo, I should specify], and the potential of being a better defender owing to those immutable attributes. I wouldn't say that's high hopes, I'd say that's a basic understanding of mathematics.

But, if you want to hang your hat on age, here is a question for you: if there was a place in the league for Rondo to limp along as a bench player for four seasons starting at the age of 32, how is it a massive leap to see Simmons do the same thing, save his apparent indifference for basketball?