Patriots 2022 Season

[Neurotic Guy]

Pats' with 5 wins and I can see wins over the Jets at home(a team they already beat on the road), Arizona, Las Vegas and warm weather team Miami in January(something that happens quite often historically...good to elite warm weather teams losing in the cold).

To get to my prediction of 10-7, the Pats' would then need to upset either Buffalo or Minnesota on the road or Cincinnati or Buffalo at home. My guess would be one of the home games, maybe even Buffalo because of the intense division rivalry and Belichick's familiarity with the Bills.

Nick what would the path to topping out at 6 wins be?

The entire defense testing positive for Covid for the next 10 weeks straight.

The Pats bus breaking down before every single game leading to forfeitures 

As much as it seems unlikely that the Pats will go no better than 1-7 over their last 8, I'm not exactly over the moon when it comes to this team.  Shutting down Zack Wilson and Sam Ehrlinger isn't saying all that much.  The Pats will face much better QBs over the last 8 games and the offense will need to score points (get in the endzone) if they want to stay in the WC race.  Mac needs to be able to not feel that he's under pressure if his first read is covered or if a play takes a couple beats to develop.  You can see him almost immediately looking for an escape route if he doesn't get the ball out quickly.  That won't get the job done if you need the offense to produce 28 points to win a game.

Zach wilson just beat the bills. We also play him again. Do the way Derek carr or kylar murray scare you? They are a combined 5-12.

I didn’t say ‘scare’ just said they will face some better QBs than Wilson and Ehrlinger.  Yes…Murray and Carr might both be better.  But, definitely Allen, Cousins, Burrow, Tua (more so their offense than Tua).  That’s at least 5 games they better be able to score points on offense.   

[gouki88]

Pats' with 5 wins and I can see wins over the Jets at home(a team they already beat on the road), Arizona, Las Vegas and warm weather team Miami in January(something that happens quite often historically...good to elite warm weather teams losing in the cold).

To get to my prediction of 10-7, the Pats' would then need to upset either Buffalo or Minnesota on the road or Cincinnati or Buffalo at home. My guess would be one of the home games, maybe even Buffalo because of the intense division rivalry and Belichick's familiarity with the Bills.

Nick what would the path to topping out at 6 wins be?

The entire defense testing positive for Covid for the next 10 weeks straight.

The Pats bus breaking down before every single game leading to forfeitures 

As much as it seems unlikely that the Pats will go no better than 1-7 over their last 8, I'm not exactly over the moon when it comes to this team.  Shutting down Zack Wilson and Sam Ehrlinger isn't saying all that much.  The Pats will face much better QBs over the last 8 games and the offense will need to score points (get in the endzone) if they want to stay in the WC race.  Mac needs to be able to not feel that he's under pressure if his first read is covered or if a play takes a couple beats to develop.  You can see him almost immediately looking for an escape route if he doesn't get the ball out quickly.  That won't get the job done if you need the offense to produce 28 points to win a game.

Zach wilson just beat the bills. We also play him again. Do the way Derek carr or kylar murray scare you? They are a combined 5-12.

Kyler Murray actually does only because mobile QBs always seem to kill us even during the Brady dynasty years. Fields, Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, etc. over the years and even a few weeks ago obviously against the Bears

Yup, the Pats almost always get burned by mobile QBs. Not sure if that's more of a personnel issue or a coaching issue, but it's frustrating for Pats fan to see them constantly burned by QBs who can run.

Some of the blame definitely lies at having LB’s who are as slow as molasses, like Bentley

[Vermont Green]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

[Goldstar88]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

Pats have 9 passing TD’s and 9 Rushing TD’s through 9 games. You don’t think it’s a problem that they are averaging 1 of each per game? Also, most of the teams in the NFL have only played 8 games, NE has one more week worth of points included in their total.

[nickagneta]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

Pats have 9 passing TD’s and 9 Rushing TD’s through 9 games. You don’t think it’s a problem that they are averaging 1 of each per game? Also, most of the teams in the NFL have only played 8 games, NE has one more week worth of points included in their total.

Shaking my head on this statement.

The number is an average per game. Whether a team has played 1 or 3 or 7 or 9 makes no difference, it's an average. Depending on the next game, any team's average can go up or down.

The Bills have played 8 games at a league leading 27.5 PPG but if they get shut out in their next game they could see their average dip to 24.4. but if they put up a 50 spot, their average climbs to 30 PPG. So clearly having an extra game does not help or hurt your average, only the performance in that game does.

[Vermont Green]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

Pats have 9 passing TD’s and 9 Rushing TD’s through 9 games. You don’t think it’s a problem that they are averaging 1 of each per game? Also, most of the teams in the NFL have only played 8 games, NE has one more week worth of points included in their total.

22.6 points per game means the total points scored divided by the number of games.  The Patriots total is divided by 9.  Those with 8 games, the total is divided by 8.  That is why it is "per game".  I am not saying the Pats' offense is lighting the league on fire.  I was just trying to put it in context of what these other teams are doing.  And in most cases it was about  the same or not much better.  We just continue to find ways to kill drives.  Dumb penalties, drops, missed blocking assignments, bad throws.

In my mind, the OL has improved some, that is a good sign.  It has to start there.  Mac Jones in general has not been sharp.  There are other factors, but I think he can and needs to be better.  At times, he zips the ball with all the confidence in the world.  Other times he looks a little rattled.  The run game has been pretty solid.  Stevenson is catching the ball out of the back field.  TEs are starting to make some plays.  I see some positives.  But I think it is Mac that is going to have to take the lead on getting the offense to the next level.

[Celtics2021]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

Pats have 9 passing TD’s and 9 Rushing TD’s through 9 games. You don’t think it’s a problem that they are averaging 1 of each per game? Also, most of the teams in the NFL have only played 8 games, NE has one more week worth of points included in their total.

I’m not sure how having an extra game is relevant to a points per game stat — the whole point is that takes into account a differing number of games.

I’m not a Pats fan, but I think people are a little too worried here. The offense isn’t great, but it’s been good enough to keep them in most games.  Football is a sport that is often decided by a few high leverage, almost fluke plays.  The Pats are rarely blowing teams away, but they’re also generally close to their opponent if not leading, which will serve them well down the stretch of the season.  I’d bet they wind up at 9-8 or 10-7.  Not spectacular, but as a non-Pats fan, your griping about that is why no one in the NFL likes you.

[nickagneta]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

Pats have 9 passing TD’s and 9 Rushing TD’s through 9 games. You don’t think it’s a problem that they are averaging 1 of each per game? Also, most of the teams in the NFL have only played 8 games, NE has one more week worth of points included in their total.

I’m not sure how having an extra game is relevant to a points per game stat — the whole point is that takes into account a differing number of games.

I’m not a Pats fan, but I think people are a little too worried here. The offense isn’t great, but it’s been good enough to keep them in most games.  Football is a sport that is often decided by a few high leverage, almost fluke plays.  The Pats are rarely blowing teams away, but they’re also generally close to their opponent if not leading, which will serve them well down the stretch of the season.  I’d bet they wind up at 9-8 or 10-7.  Not spectacular, but as a non-Pats fan, your griping about that is why no one in the NFL likes you.

Now, now. Don't be salty.

😁

[celticsclay]

The people extremely negative about the patriots have been extremely quiet after yesterday. The same were very vocal after the bad loss to Chicago. This forum is a better place when people own what they write and keep discussions going rather than just running with tail between legs for another hot take. Props to those that have adjusted their expectations or acknowledged improvement.

[Phantom255x]

I posted this on the NFL season thread, but Josh Allen could miss some time with an elbow injury which is still being evaluated.

Now I hate to be that guy, I do hope he recovers fast and it's nothing serious. But in football sense, IF Allen ends up missing 3+ weeks as a result, then the Pats may have an advantage when they play BUF in early December if Allen's out for that game.

[nickagneta]

I posted this on the NFL season thread, but Josh Allen could miss some time with an elbow injury which is still being evaluated.

Now I hate to be that guy, I do hope he recovers fast and it's nothing serious. But in football sense, IF Allen ends up missing 3+ weeks as a result, then the Pats may have an advantage when they play BUF in early December if Allen's out for that game.

And if he needs surgery, then both games versus the Bills are in play for the Pats' to win.

Which is why having severe hot takes regarding the outcome of a season based solely on schedule is bad. Stuff happens. Super high wind games happen. Bad rain storm games happen. Snow games happen. Severe cold weather and severe hot weather games happen. And yes, injuries to massively important players happen.

[Goldstar88]

The people extremely negative about the patriots have been extremely quiet after yesterday. The same were very vocal after the bad loss to Chicago. This forum is a better place when people own what they write and keep discussions going rather than just running with tail between legs for another hot take. Props to those that have adjusted their expectations or acknowledged improvement.

I predicted 9-8 going into the season. Also thought the Chicago game was a trap due to the QB controversy. Was just hoping for progress from last year, but so far they have taken a step back. Will say that not knowing what to expect week to week has kept things interesting, at least. Judon, Stevenson, and Myers have been fun to watch as well.

[kraidstar]

On the season, the Pats average 22.6 ppg, pretty much the same as the Raiders and the Cardinals.  The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Bengals, all better but really only by a few points.  The Bills are the best at 27.5 ppg.  I don't disagree that the offense has struggled.  The OL is still kind of mediocre.  We can still win these games though if we just clean up a few things.

Pats have 9 passing TD’s and 9 Rushing TD’s through 9 games. You don’t think it’s a problem that they are averaging 1 of each per game? Also, most of the teams in the NFL have only played 8 games, NE has one more week worth of points included in their total.

This.

Also, how many of those TDs were set up by our offense and special teams? Last Sunday our defense and special teams effectively outscored our offense 14-12.

The D has been giving our offense good field position most of the season and our scoring numbers are still pathetic.

Don't get me wrong, I love seeing one unit pick up another. But this is not a sustainable method to score points,  especially against teams that make fewer mistakes.

[Phantom255x]

Really hope the Pats are still in the thick of the playoff race by Christmas, because my family and I bought tickets to the game December 24 against Cincinnati! 

Also hope Joe Burrow doesn't decide to go nuclear against us lol, but I'm excited. The NFL games that week are also mostly on Saturday with just a few games Sunday (Christmas Day)

[Phantom255x]

Why is it that almost all these teams draft WRs that are great and in some cases elite talents, and then there's us with the likes of Thompkins, Boyce, Dobson, N'Keal Harry, etc. etc. over the years

Look at most of the star players today. Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Christian Watson, Waddle, St. Brown, etc. etc.