I think the longevity of Horford needs to be factored in. Perhaps we only have a two-year window, regardless of what happens with Durant / JB.
I don't think one can ignore Horford's age, but at the same time he's our 4th-best player when healthy? 5th? Maybe 6th depending on what a healthier Brogdon looks like (if we get one)? He's good, but I don't think he's window-defining. Tatum and Brown are the primary structures of that window. Smart is to a lesser degree, as is Rob, with Rob having a chance to overtake Smart with a season that shows last year was no fluke and he has fully recovered. Horford is a 4th or 5th starter, and while I love him, championship teams usually rotate through players those without their window closing.
The window closes if JB walks, so if the Celtics think he's walking in two years, trading for Durant could make sense, because Durant opens the window wider over those same two years. But Horford really shouldn't factor into the window discussion. He's not foundational at this point in his career.
I think you’re underrating hoe difficult it will be to maintain our defensive identity and size advantage without Horford. We just don’t have a viable replacement for him.
I mentioned this a week or so ago. Horford is old, Smart is a smaller guard who is always hurt and is now entering year 9, Rob is always hurt, Brogdon and Gallo are on the wrong side of 30. The team might really only have a 2 to 3 year window anyway even though Tatum and Brown are younger, it will be hard to build around them when they are 70% of the cap.
All the more reason to really go all in and acquire Durant.
Actually Brogdon is 29...turns 30 in December.
Yeah, I typed quickly on my phone and didn't double check if he was 30 or would turn 30 and got my memory wrong when I looked it up last week. The point remains he is an injury prone player who will turn 30 this year. How much longer is reasonably going to be able to perform at this level, how many games is he going to miss, and is he even going to be healthy for the playoffs? Those are certainly fair questions for Smart who has missed 11, 24, and 12 games the last 3 seasons and who has played above his size a lot in his career and is entering year 9. We all know Rob is fragile, Al is old (and missing time), and Gallo turned 34 today (happy birthday).
So you have Tatum and Brown along with White and then role players like Grant and PP that I think you could reasonably rely on for the next 5 years. Rob and Smart if they can stay healthy will still be alright but that is obviously a big if on the health department (and Smart is getting older and will be 29 this season).
I just think those projecting 5 years of contention are kidding themselves, both in how good Boston actually is and also how long the window actually is. Boston doesn't have very many starter level younger players and one of the ones they do have is always hurt (i.e. Rob).