Is Grant a goner? (Yes: Traded to DAL for second rounders)

[wiley]

Why are we discounting Pritchard and Hauser?

Both have proven to be NBA caliber players and should receive playing time.

Why did *Joe* discount Pritchard and Hauser (and Grant, as well).

Yeah but thats a coaching problem. if thats the case whomever brad brings in wont play either so it doesnt matter if we sign NBA quality vets.

Both SHOULD see playing time next year. they have proven they are NBA quality reserves.

Well this is some revisionist history. Hauser played 16mpg last year under Joe. The year before with Ime, he averaged 6mpg.

He got 6.9 minutes in the playoffs, and didn't get off the bench in five games.

Pritchard averaged 5.7 minutes in the playoffs, and didn't get off the bench in 10 games.

Grant sat out five games, and averaged 17.7 minutes in the others.

Right, the rotation gets shortened in the playoffs. Those guys will see less minutes. That is normal.

Right:  Joe didn't think Hauser and Pritchard (and Grant) were reliable options in high-leverage situations last year.

Until proven otherwise, it's fair to assume that he's going to have some question marks about playing Hauser and Pritchard in high-leverage minutes, either.

And since those are currently our eighth and ninth men, that's a potential problem.  Either Joe needs to change, or the roster does.

It’s not at all uncommon for younger players to get DNPs in the playoffs one year having been in the rotation for the regular season, and then move into the rotation the next playoffs.  Heck, Jaylen Brown got DNPs and garbage time minutes several games in his first postseason and started on opening night the following October.  You’re making more out of this than is there.

It's also not uncommon for younger players to get DNPs in the playoffs and then remain DNPs in the playoffs the following year.  And, in the case of Joe, he took two guys who played in every game of the playoffs in 2022 and sat them out each at least 5 games.

I agree with the critique of the C's not playing their young guys enough.  And this leads into the problem of the Celtics being too predictable in the playoffs.  The C's seem to have turned off the psychological intuitive flow aspect of the game as regardis the nature of competition itself. They've gone all in on stats, forgetting that there is another team out there that actually hast to respond every time the C's show a different look.  If Hauser misses a shot, or two in a row, the brass/coach yanks him.  The player develops no confidence in this atmosphere.  The Celtics may or may not need better bench players this upcoming season, but they absolutely need more confident bench players.

This doesn't touch on the importance of having more rested starters. 
I wish I had added young player development in the concerns-about-Joe coaching thread.  Miami does it well. The C's remain a very predictable playoff entity. 

The C's have organizationally not prioritized the power of team play.  They praise it when they see it, but don't seem to push it on the players.  They are letting the J's slowly inch themselves in the right direction through the maturing process, but with no substantive push behind it, such that they turn into an iso team under any kind of real stress.  Shooting threes is certainly a stress free way to play and to coach, but it looks so lazy when there is no real backup plan, or backup style.  Same for iso ball.

This is why I advocate getting another distributor onto the team, even via trading Jaylen, even if it's a guy who will take a year or two to become great (thinking of Scoot).  Unfortunately, unless the chemistry is amazing between the J's and Porzingis, I see another issue coming next post-season, which is how to finish quarters and how to finish games.  I see more turnovers on the horizon,. and more one dimensional play that the other team can stop.

I hope that the Smart trade allows Pritchard to start playing significant minutes.  And that the C's live with his weaknesses the way Miami lives with the weaknesses of its more confident bench guys.  And I hope Walsh very quickly gets minutes as a specialist defender (if on offense he can just move the ball/pass effectively, cut, etc.)  Maybe Walsh is not ready, no idea..hope so.

[Moranis]

The C's young guys aren't good enough to play. It is simple as that.

[wiley]

The C's young guys aren't good enough to play. It is simple as that.

I think you're saying not good enough to play in the playoffs, as Hauser did play during the season.  I disagree that you have to shut him down for the playoffs. 

I think the reason you feel that way is partly related to the C's fear of allowing a strength due to a weakness.

If Brogdon hadn't been out I'd say ok, no time for Pritchard or Hauser...but Brogdon was out. 

[Goldstar88]

Grant claims the difference in deals, and why he chose Dallas, was due to Massachusetts tax implications.

Rarely do players ever admit this, and I hate how teams have a competitive advantage over us simply because of our state tax structure. It is completely unfair. All sports teams should be taxed the same, i'd say the tax imposed should be based on the HQ of the league and not where the team resides.. and if a team has a higher tax penalty because of their state they should have a higher allowance to go over their respective league cap to neutralize it. There has to be some sort of way to even the playing field with this.

**I do realize the second scenario i proposed is impossible to manage, but still there should be a way to police this somehow.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/grant-williams-reacts-trade-explains-124956302.html

Taxachusetts.

Well in perspective - Mass income tax rate is 5%. With deductions (who knows in Grant’s case) probably talking about $500,000 a year.  Idk - doesn’t seem like that’s enough to sway unless everything else is equal. In the long run, he makes 52M instead of 54M.   Easy for me to say, but that 2M probably not going to make or break him.  And who knows ultimately if playing for the Cs ends up paying off better in endorsements….

Take that number… and double it!



In November of 2022, the voters of Massachusetts approved a new 4% tax on state residents with annual income over $1 million. Combined with the state's existing tax rate, it raises the top tax rate to 9% and applies to both ordinary income and capital gains.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

The C's young guys aren't good enough to play. It is simple as that.

You could argue the same thing about Vincent, Robinson, and Struss in Miami at the end of the regular season. You could even argue that about Love and Zeller too.

It's amazing how players can develop and change the perception of their abilities with a simple 20 game stretch.

[Celtics4ever]

Why are we discounting Pritchard and Hauser?

Both have proven to be NBA caliber players and should receive playing time.

Why did *Joe* discount Pritchard and Hauser (and Grant, as well).

Yeah but thats a coaching problem. if thats the case whomever brad brings in wont play either so it doesnt matter if we sign NBA quality vets.

Both SHOULD see playing time next year. they have proven they are NBA quality reserves.

Well this is some revisionist history. Hauser played 16mpg last year under Joe. The year before with Ime, he averaged 6mpg.

He got 6.9 minutes in the playoffs, and didn't get off the bench in five games.

Pritchard averaged 5.7 minutes in the playoffs, and didn't get off the bench in 10 games.

Grant sat out five games, and averaged 17.7 minutes in the others.

Right, the rotation gets shortened in the playoffs. Those guys will see less minutes. That is normal.

Right:  Joe didn't think Hauser and Pritchard (and Grant) were reliable options in high-leverage situations last year.

Until proven otherwise, it's fair to assume that he's going to have some question marks about playing Hauser and Pritchard in high-leverage minutes, either.

And since those are currently our eighth and ninth men, that's a potential problem.  Either Joe needs to change, or the roster does.

It’s not at all uncommon for younger players to get DNPs in the playoffs one year having been in the rotation for the regular season, and then move into the rotation the next playoffs.  Heck, Jaylen Brown got DNPs and garbage time minutes several games in his first postseason and started on opening night the following October.  You’re making more out of this than is there.

It's also not uncommon for younger players to get DNPs in the playoffs and then remain DNPs in the playoffs the following year.  And, in the case of Joe, he took two guys who played in every game of the playoffs in 2022 and sat them out each at least 5 games.

I agree with the critique of the C's not playing their young guys enough.  And this leads into the problem of the Celtics being too predictable in the playoffs.  The C's seem to have turned off the psychological intuitive flow aspect of the game as regardis the nature of competition itself. They've gone all in on stats, forgetting that there is another team out there that actually hast to respond every time the C's show a different look.  If Hauser misses a shot, or two in a row, the brass/coach yanks him.  The player develops no confidence in this atmosphere.  The Celtics may or may not need better bench players this upcoming season, but they absolutely need more confident bench players.

This doesn't touch on the importance of having more rested starters. 
I wish I had added young player development in the concerns-about-Joe coaching thread.  Miami does it well. The C's remain a very predictable playoff entity. 

The C's have organizationally not prioritized the power of team play.  They praise it when they see it, but don't seem to push it on the players.  They are letting the J's slowly inch themselves in the right direction through the maturing process, but with no substantive push behind it, such that they turn into an iso team under any kind of real stress.  Shooting threes is certainly a stress free way to play and to coach, but it looks so lazy when there is no real backup plan, or backup style.  Same for iso ball.

This is why I advocate getting another distributor onto the team, even via trading Jaylen, even if it's a guy who will take a year or two to become great (thinking of Scoot).  Unfortunately, unless the chemistry is amazing between the J's and Porzingis, I see another issue coming next post-season, which is how to finish quarters and how to finish games.  I see more turnovers on the horizon,. and more one dimensional play that the other team can stop.

I hope that the Smart trade allows Pritchard to start playing significant minutes.  And that the C's live with his weaknesses the way Miami lives with the weaknesses of its more confident bench guys.  And I hope Walsh very quickly gets minutes as a specialist defender (if on offense he can just move the ball/pass effectively, cut, etc.)  Maybe Walsh is not ready, no idea..hope so.

All the playing time in the world isn't going to make Pritchard taller, Hauser more athletic and Kornett develop fortitude.    There are reasons these guys do not play big minutes.

When you're playing a higher level of basketball, it is your job to be ready when your number is called.   You get some time to practice and get up shots.  Yes, it can help to play, but skill is developed in practice and confidence from performing against competition.    It can be your team mates folks, it does not have to be versus the opposition. 

[gouki88]

I wonder if the William's uncertainty may also have hurt the Celtics ability to sign a vet min player who may have been worried that the possible minutes would have been sucked up if Grant stayed.


Now, there seems to be clear PF minutes available off the bench.

Let's hope it works out that way and we sign somebody competent.

Spotrac has the following PFs available:

JaMychael Green (#11 free agent PF)
Dario Saric (#12)
Derrick Jones (#14)
Wenyan Gabriel (#15)
Justice Winslow (#16)
Darius Bazely (#19)
Trendon Watford (not ranked)
Bol Bol (not ranked)

P.J. Washington is ranked 3rd; he's not an option.

I would happily take Green, Jones, Bazley or Watford. I view Saric as more of a 5 these days, similar to other skilled bigs like Kaminsky. I would still take Saric too though, as he could play with our other bigs.

[Neurotic Guy]

I wonder if the William's uncertainty may also have hurt the Celtics ability to sign a vet min player who may have been worried that the possible minutes would have been sucked up if Grant stayed.


Now, there seems to be clear PF minutes available off the bench.

Let's hope it works out that way and we sign somebody competent.

Spotrac has the following PFs available:

JaMychael Green (#11 free agent PF)
Dario Saric (#12)
Derrick Jones (#14)
Wenyan Gabriel (#15)
Justice Winslow (#16)
Darius Bazely (#19)
Trendon Watford (not ranked)
Bol Bol (not ranked)

P.J. Washington is ranked 3rd; he's not an option.

I would happily take Green, Jones, Bazley or Watford. I view Saric as more of a 5 these days, similar to other skilled bigs like Kaminsky. I would still take Saric too though, as he could play with our other bigs.

Saric looked like a valuable rotation big (floor) early in his career and has gotten progressively worse since - or at least hasn’t progressed. The ACL a couple years ago obviously is a factor but even prior to that he seemed to have hit his ceiling.  Statistically he wasn’t much better than Luke Kornet last year.  Maybe that’s the post-ACL year and he’ll be better moving forward?   To those who’ve watched him play - what do you expect from him - slightly more productive than Luke, or a consistently contributing bench big?

[gouki88]

I wonder if the William's uncertainty may also have hurt the Celtics ability to sign a vet min player who may have been worried that the possible minutes would have been sucked up if Grant stayed.


Now, there seems to be clear PF minutes available off the bench.

Let's hope it works out that way and we sign somebody competent.

Spotrac has the following PFs available:

JaMychael Green (#11 free agent PF)
Dario Saric (#12)
Derrick Jones (#14)
Wenyan Gabriel (#15)
Justice Winslow (#16)
Darius Bazely (#19)
Trendon Watford (not ranked)
Bol Bol (not ranked)

P.J. Washington is ranked 3rd; he's not an option.

I would happily take Green, Jones, Bazley or Watford. I view Saric as more of a 5 these days, similar to other skilled bigs like Kaminsky. I would still take Saric too though, as he could play with our other bigs.

Saric looked like a valuable rotation big (floor) early in his career and has gotten progressively worse since - or at least hasn’t progressed. The ACL a couple years ago obviously is a factor but even prior to that he seemed to have hit his ceiling.  Statistically he wasn’t much better than Luke Kornet last year.  Maybe that’s the post-ACL year and he’ll be better moving forward?   To those who’ve watched him play - what do you expect from him - slightly more productive than Luke, or a consistently contributing bench big?

He’s a good passer and shooter, but he can’t protect the rim like Kornet. I think he’d be more valuable simply through versatility - his skill set on offence could fit alongside all our other bigs, unlike Kornet who is quite limited in who he can play next to

[ozgod]

arent alot of the same people who complained that Grant isn't worth it to keep now complaining that we didn't match him? 

Honestly, Losing Grant isn't bad in a bubble. the return is disappointing. Its the lack of other moves for the bench that make it more glaring.

We're not the only team that is losing players for inadequate returns. The new CBA is making it a lot harder for front offices to maintain deep benches, especially when you have like $100m tied up in three players and then $25m on the fourth (even before the extensions and supermaxes coming down the pike). Apparently we're $7m below the second apron as it is, even before Jaylen's supermax and KP's extension next season, so if we use the MLE it would hardcap us at the second apron for the season. The penalties are a lot more debilitating than just having to pay tax. They obviously don't start till next season but that's probably where the reluctance to carry long term salary - like if we had asked for incoming salary to match GWill's new contract - is coming from. So we can't even blame Wyc for being a cheapskate like we have been for the last few years 

• Teams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
• Teams cannot include cash in a trade
• Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
• First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)
• A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons

Brad probably doesn't want to get hardcapped for the sake of filling out his deep bench. Sucks for us as fans, because the team will always have a weakness in the roster, but I think that's by design with the new CBA - no more Warriors superteams that linger because of an owner that is willing to pay $170m in tax a year.

But maybe Brad's not finished. He does have that MLE if he wants to get hardcapped, and the TPE if he doesn't. But I suspect neither will be used until midway through the season, when the needs are more obvious, if they get used at all. I know - BORING 

It's the bolded part that makes it disappointing.

We keep hearing that cheap contracts are going to be more and more important, which is great.  You get those cheap contracts through draft picks and minimum contracts.

To date, Brad hasn't used a first rounder, and hasn't "hit" on a second rounder.  So, it's hard to have a lot of faith there.  And, in free agency, he's been lousy at finding competent players at the minimum to date.  He's very good at trading, but as you note, trading is going to harder going forward; there are some restrictions on trades -- such as having to be within 110% of contract value -- for teams even over the first apron.

If the Celtics had signed Richardson and Craig, I don't think you'd hear many complaints about moving on from Grant.  But, the worry is that we've essentially lost four rotation / quasi-rotation pieces, and have replaced them with KP.

Very understandable, it feels like we got screwed, giving away a popular contributing rotation player who happened to be one of our best perimeter shooters for a bag of peanuts. It's probably the same way that Atlanta felt when they traded John Collins for Rudy Gay. Even worse because we're supposed to be contending, and KP has an injury history.

If you assume that Joe plans to stick to a 10 man rotation in the regular season (which I doubt, he might just stick to an 8 or 9 man rotation like he always does), based on the minutes that they played in the regular season last season:

Code: [Select]

Tatum 35
Brown 35
White 30
Al 30
KP 25
Brogdon 25
Timelord 25
Pritchard 15
Hauser 15
Kornet 5

TOTAL = 240

Brissett, Banton, Walsh, Davison, Champagnie = bits and pieces minutes here and there

In this scenario, GWill's minutes are largely taken up by KP, while White, Brogdon and PP take up Smartacus's minutes. The issue is injury...either to one of the ball handers or one of the bigs. Which is why I think Brad will hang on to that TPE, and the MLE, so he can better target someone in the event of an injury. Because right now I see him as having a couple of needs, both in ball handling and in the frontcourt. He can't really fill both right now. No doubt our bench is weaker as a result, unless we count Timelord or Al as now being a bench player...the CBA really is making it hard to have a deep bench with a lot of quality "just in case" players that are good enough to just step in in case of emergencies or injuries but ride the pine otherwise, especially with so much money committed to the stars. You've got to get lucky in finding some gems that outperform their contracts and Brad hasn't found any second rounders to do that yet.

[cman88]

On paper, our rotation compares vs. last year if everyone is healthy:

White/Brown/Tatum/KP/Rob williams   vs. Smart/brown/tatum/horford/williams.

KP should be better than Horford. and its debatable whether going from Smart to white is an equal, upgrade or downgrade. Personally I think he can handle it and might play his "role" better than Smart did.

on the bench you have Brogdon/PP/Hauser/Horford/Kornet  vs. Brogdon/White/hauser/grant/Kornet

so horford > grant. while PP<white. everything else pretty much the same. SO on paper you can see why paying your 4th Big $13.5 million and going into the 2nd apron doesnt make sense.

the only issue is that Horford is old and Rob/KP/Brogdon all have injury histories. So chances are those 3 guys are ALL going to miss time. and who spells them?

[Vermont Green]

In this scenario, GWill's minutes are largely taken up by KP, while White, Brogdon and PP take up Smartacus's minutes. The issue is injury...either to one of the ball handers or one of the bigs. Which is why I think Brad will hang on to that TPE, and the MLE, so he can better target someone in the event of an injury. Because right now I see him as having a couple of needs, both in ball handling and in the frontcourt. He can't really fill both right now. No doubt our bench is weaker as a result, unless we count Timelord or Al as now being a bench player...the CBA really is making it hard to have a deep bench with a lot of quality "just in case" players that are good enough to just step in in case of emergencies or injuries but ride the pine otherwise, especially with so much money committed to the stars. You've got to get lucky in finding some gems that outperform their contracts and Brad hasn't found any second rounders to do that yet.

Why wouldn't you count one of them as a bench player?  That is one of the main positives of the Porzingis trade.  It adds depth for the PF/C rotation.  MIL always had a great 3 big rotation with Giannis, Lopez and Portis.  Do you not count Portis as part of the MIL bench?  Now we can match up to that pretty well with Porzingis, Horford, and RWill.  We clearly now have better depth in the PF/C rotation, even with losing Grant.  One of these main guys is going to come off the bench so our bench will be better.

I would prefer to start RWill and have Horford off the bench.  Horford is versatile enough to play both positions.  So now we have Horford as the first big off the bench instead of Grant.  Our bench is better in this regard.  That is plain and clear.  You can argue that Grant was more durable than Horford (didn't need back to backs off, which Horford may not either if he comes off the bench), but Horford as a bench player makes our bench better.  I don't understand any scenario where this wouldn't "count".

[Moranis]

The C's young guys aren't good enough to play. It is simple as that.

You could argue the same thing about Vincent, Robinson, and Struss in Miami at the end of the regular season. You could even argue that about Love and Zeller too.

It's amazing how players can develop and change the perception of their abilities with a simple 20 game stretch.

no you couldn't.  Vincent and Strus started 34 and 33 games this year. Strus started every playoff game the year prior for the Heat.  Vincent started 8 of 18 playoff games the prior year.  Love started 17 of the 21 regular season games he played and then 18 of the 20 playoff games.  Zeller played 8 mpg in the playoffs which is 6 less than he played in the regular season.  Robinson, who isn't young, obviously came in and out of the lineup, but that is how he has been used the last 2 years.  Matchups, injuries, and how well he plays have been dictating his playing time for the last couple of years.  Had Herro and Oladipo been healthy,  I suspect Vincent would have played less, but the Heat didn't really change what worked for them and has been working for them. 

Hauser is not good enough to play in the post season.  He isn't consistent enough as a shooter and does nothing else well.  I do think Grant could have played a bit more, but looking at the minutes in the Heat series, I'm not entirely sure where those minutes should come from.

[Celtics4ever]

Those guys both outperformed Grant in the regular season and playoffs.

[Silas]

The C's young guys aren't good enough to play. It is simple as that.

You could argue the same thing about Vincent, Robinson, and Struss in Miami at the end of the regular season. You could even argue that about Love and Zeller too.

It's amazing how players can develop and change the perception of their abilities with a simple 20 game stretch.

no you couldn't.  Vincent and Strus started 34 and 33 games this year. Strus started every playoff game the year prior for the Heat.  Vincent started 8 of 18 playoff games the prior year.  Love started 17 of the 21 regular season games he played and then 18 of the 20 playoff games.  Zeller played 8 mpg in the playoffs which is 6 less than he played in the regular season.  Robinson, who isn't young, obviously came in and out of the lineup, but that is how he has been used the last 2 years.  Matchups, injuries, and how well he plays have been dictating his playing time for the last couple of years.  Had Herro and Oladipo been healthy,  I suspect Vincent would have played less, but the Heat didn't really change what worked for them and has been working for them. 

Hauser is not good enough to play in the post season.  He isn't consistent enough as a shooter and does nothing else well.  I do think Grant could have played a bit more, but looking at the minutes in the Heat series, I'm not entirely sure where those minutes should come from.

Every season in college and 2 in the pros he has shot over 40% from 3.  Last season playing 16min/g he attempted 3s at 4.1/game shooting 41.8%.  He's not perfect but getting better on D.  I would not call him an inconsistent shooter from 3.