2021-22 Celtics Playoffs Discussion

[Roy H.]

Is Jaylen's hamstring ok? I missed the tail end of the game but it was right after Scal momentarily talked about Jaylen grabbing his hamstring.

I haven't seen an update, but after the game Jaylen said it hurt but that he thinks he'll be fine.  Ime said in his press conference he hadn't heard that JB had tweaked it.

[Vermont Green]

I know it is not official yet but I have moved on and am thinking about the Bucks.

In the last game, their starting line up was:

Holiday
Matthews
Portis
Giannis
Lopez

That is a C, a C/PF, a PF, and 2 guards.  That is a huge line up.  That line up was -1 overall in their game 4 that they won by 24 points.    MIL played 21 different line ups in that game.  I guess having a lead allowed them to experiment.  Grayson Allen was 10-12, 6-7 from 3.  I didn't see the game but I am guessing CHI was doubling the bigs and leaving people open.  Last 2 games, MIL is 43% from 3 overall.

In the last two games, Holiday is averaging 17.5 shots, more than Giannis (17.0).  Allen is averaging 12 shot but getting 24.5 points over the last two games.  Holiday is 46% from 3 (last 2 games), Allen is 79%.  My conclusion is that we have to concede that Giannis is going to get 25+ points.  We can live with that but we can't let Holiday and Allen go for 20+ each also as they have done the last two games against CHI.  I am not sure what CHI is doing (or not doing) but Holiday and Allen are not that good.  They must be getting really clean looks at 3s.

We can do this.  MIL is tough, big, but we should be able to defend them and not let Holiday and Allen decide the series.

[Celtics2021]

Is Jaylen's hamstring ok? I missed the tail end of the game but it was right after Scal momentarily talked about Jaylen grabbing his hamstring.

I haven't seen an update, but after the game Jaylen said it hurt but that he thinks he'll be fine.  Ime said in his press conference he hadn't heard that JB had tweaked it.

Supposedly it was sore the entire second half, so unless he tweaked it significantly at the end, I wouldn’t be too concerned that it’s anything more than 4-5 days of rest can’t heal.

[tonydelk]

I know it is not official yet but I have moved on and am thinking about the Bucks.

In the last game, their starting line up was:

Holiday
Matthews
Portis
Giannis
Lopez

That is a C, a C/PF, a PF, and 2 guards.  That is a huge line up.  That line up was -1 overall in their game 4 that they won by 24 points.    MIL played 21 different line ups in that game.  I guess having a lead allowed them to experiment.  Grayson Allen was 10-12, 6-7 from 3.  I didn't see the game but I am guessing CHI was doubling the bigs and leaving people open.  Last 2 games, MIL is 43% from 3 overall.

In the last two games, Holiday is averaging 17.5 shots, more than Giannis (17.0).  Allen is averaging 12 shot but getting 24.5 points over the last two games.  Holiday is 46% from 3 (last 2 games), Allen is 79%.  My conclusion is that we have to concede that Giannis is going to get 25+ points.  We can live with that but we can't let Holiday and Allen go for 20+ each also as they have done the last two games against CHI.  I am not sure what CHI is doing (or not doing) but Holiday and Allen are not that good.  They must be getting really clean looks at 3s.

We can do this.  MIL is tough, big, but we should be able to defend them and not let Holiday and Allen decide the series.

I agree and think the gameplan is going to be a lot different.  I don't think the C's try to do to Giannis that they did to KD.  Giannis is way to strong to be bullied. I think they give Giannas every jump shot he wants.  They guard the 3pt line and allow rob and horford to guard the paint.  Giannis will get his but will have to work for it.  They can't let Milwaukee shoot 40+% from 3's.

[Moranis]

I know it is not official yet but I have moved on and am thinking about the Bucks.

In the last game, their starting line up was:

Holiday
Matthews
Portis
Giannis
Lopez

That is a C, a C/PF, a PF, and 2 guards.  That is a huge line up.  That line up was -1 overall in their game 4 that they won by 24 points.    MIL played 21 different line ups in that game.  I guess having a lead allowed them to experiment.  Grayson Allen was 10-12, 6-7 from 3.  I didn't see the game but I am guessing CHI was doubling the bigs and leaving people open.  Last 2 games, MIL is 43% from 3 overall.

In the last two games, Holiday is averaging 17.5 shots, more than Giannis (17.0).  Allen is averaging 12 shot but getting 24.5 points over the last two games.  Holiday is 46% from 3 (last 2 games), Allen is 79%.  My conclusion is that we have to concede that Giannis is going to get 25+ points.  We can live with that but we can't let Holiday and Allen go for 20+ each also as they have done the last two games against CHI.  I am not sure what CHI is doing (or not doing) but Holiday and Allen are not that good.  They must be getting really clean looks at 3s.

We can do this.  MIL is tough, big, but we should be able to defend them and not let Holiday and Allen decide the series.

You are underselling Holiday quite a bit.  He has averaged over 21 ppg in a season before.  He certainly can up his shots when a top scorer is out and has done so his whole time in Milwaukee. 

Allen isn't going to shoot 61% from 3 against Boston, but he is basically a 40% shooter on 5 attempts throughout his career.  In other words, you can't leave him open.

Boston has much better defenders top to bottom than Chicago does (especially without Lonzo).  I'm not particularly worried about Allen getting wide open looks like he has been getting against Chicago.  The concern with Milwaukee is always Giannis.  You have to keep him in the low 30's at best and preferably in the 20's.  If Giannis starts dropping 40+ a night every game, Boston will lose, even without Middleton playing.

[nickagneta]

Does anyone have any info on the Horford hug of Jaylen Brown after Horford's daggar offensive rebound put back all but ended the game?

JB got the rebound and had the great outlet pass to Smart that triggered the fast break and when running back up court after scoring Horford hugged, in what looked like a consoling manner a Jaylen Brown that looked on the verge of crying.

What was up with that? Did Brown reinjure or tweak his hammy on the play and get super sad at what that could mean for him and the team? The whole thing seemed weird to me.

[nebist]

Because of Milwaukee's team size and a high-level front-line of Giannis/Brook/Portis that all have some level of inside-outside skill, Rob Williams is going to be so important in that Bucks series. He was clearly still getting his rhythm and conditioning back against the Nets, but we're going to need regular season Rob to get by the Bucks.

While I'm sure Jayson, Jaylen, and Smart will get switched onto Giannis at times, I don't think we can rely on the Jays to be primary defenders on Giannis the way they were on Durant because Giannis draws so many fouls with his physicality. That means Horford, Grant, and Rob are going to need to be the primary defenders of Giannis, and they're going to need all of their fouls and energy to make life hard on him.

It will be interesting to see who Giannis guards. From past precedent, it seems like Milwaukee likes to keep him in more of help role and away from the other team's star. If they do that, I would assume Giannis guards Horford, Jrue take Tatum, and Brown should have awesome matchups to attack (much like in the Brooklyn series). However, if Giannis can guard Tatum credibly (as Tatum just did to Durant), that would allow Jrue to check Jaylen and leave us with less favorable matchups to attack. I will be very interested to see how Milwaukee matches up to us defensively.

[Big333223]

Is Jaylen's hamstring ok? I missed the tail end of the game but it was right after Scal momentarily talked about Jaylen grabbing his hamstring.

I haven't seen an update, but after the game Jaylen said it hurt but that he thinks he'll be fine.  Ime said in his press conference he hadn't heard that JB had tweaked it.

Supposedly it was sore the entire second half, so unless he tweaked it significantly at the end, I wouldn’t be too concerned that it’s anything more than 4-5 days of rest can’t heal.

Obviously a sweep is always great but giving everyone a couple extra days to heal up is big for this team. Jaylen, Al, and Rob will particularly benefit from it.

[Roy H.]

Does anyone have any info on the Horford hug of Jaylen Brown after Horford's daggar offensive rebound put back all but ended the game?

JB got the rebound and had the great outlet pass to Smart that triggered the fast break and when running back up court after scoring Horford hugged, in what looked like a consoling manner a Jaylen Brown that looked on the verge of crying.

What was up with that? Did Brown reinjure or tweak his hammy on the play and get super sad at what that could mean for him and the team? The whole thing seemed weird to me.

I think it was Horford celebrating, while JB was just looking stoic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaIY1NqRkgQ

You can see it here.  13.7 seconds left in the game.

[Neurotic Guy]

Does anyone have any info on the Horford hug of Jaylen Brown after Horford's daggar offensive rebound put back all but ended the game?

JB got the rebound and had the great outlet pass to Smart that triggered the fast break and when running back up court after scoring Horford hugged, in what looked like a consoling manner a Jaylen Brown that looked on the verge of crying.

What was up with that? Did Brown reinjure or tweak his hammy on the play and get super sad at what that could mean for him and the team? The whole thing seemed weird to me.

I think it was Horford celebrating, while JB was just looking stoic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaIY1NqRkgQ

You can see it here.  13.7 seconds left in the game.

I have a thought that JB has a unique sense of humor.  Recall the look on his face when he looked at Smart's left hand?  He does this stoic deadpan thing and I think it's a reflection of his humor/irony...  It looked a little awkward with Horford but I don't think it's meaningful in a bad way -- I think it's just personality...in a good way.

[nickagneta]

Does anyone have any info on the Horford hug of Jaylen Brown after Horford's daggar offensive rebound put back all but ended the game?

JB got the rebound and had the great outlet pass to Smart that triggered the fast break and when running back up court after scoring Horford hugged, in what looked like a consoling manner a Jaylen Brown that looked on the verge of crying.

What was up with that? Did Brown reinjure or tweak his hammy on the play and get super sad at what that could mean for him and the team? The whole thing seemed weird to me.

I think it was Horford celebrating, while JB was just looking stoic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaIY1NqRkgQ

You can see it here.  13.7 seconds left in the game.

I have a thought that JB has a unique sense of humor.  Recall the look on his face when he looked at Smart's left hand?  He does this stoic deadpan thing and I think it's a reflection of his humor/irony...  It looked a little awkward with Horford but I don't think it's meaningful in a bad way -- I think it's just personality...in a good way.

Brown trying to be humorous seems more right than not. Horford's hug and patting of the head definitely didn't give off a celebratory vibe but who knows how those to interact in practice and the locker room. Maybe they do this as a semi mocking celebration there and it carried over.

[Who]

Because of Milwaukee's team size and a high-level front-line of Giannis/Brook/Portis that all have some level of inside-outside skill, Rob Williams is going to be so important in that Bucks series. He was clearly still getting his rhythm and conditioning back against the Nets, but we're going to need regular season Rob to get by the Bucks.

I am surprised the Bucks frontline hasn't hindered them more. That big frontline makes their offense quite static. It leaves Portis and B.Lopez as spot up shooters with limited mobility on the perimeter. Both lack the handles to attack close-outs.

That makes them easier to defend because of the lack of movement and because of the lack of driving threat from the perimeter after Giannis kicks it out on the double team inside. That leaves Jrue as their only reliable dribble drive threat. Grayson Allen is more of a spot-up guy with a limited driving game. So Jrue is the only legit threat. And Jrue is more of an all-rounder offensively than a highly efficient highly effective threat. You can probably live with Jrue having high scoring nights if you can shut the other three guys down.

It's that lack of driving threat and lack of off ball movement that makes them easy to defend in that big alignment.

They have played well against Chicago but Chicago is an average to slightly above average team without Lonzo & a below average defensive team. I wonder if I am giving MIL too much credit for how well they have played without Middleton against CHI and if I am understating the offensive difficulties they will face against a top defensive team like BOS.

Is this more of a 4 or 5 game series than a 5 or 6 game series?

I certainly do not see it as a long hard fought 6 or 7 game series without Middleton.

This could be a short series.

[Ed Monix]

Final stats for Jayson Tatum as primary defender on Kevin Durant, per NBA tracking:

30:23 matchup time
139 possessions
12 PTS
3-18 FG
16.7 FG%
0-5  3PT
12 TO
2 BLK
2 shooting fouls

—————————

Source: Chris Forsberg

[nebist]

Because of Milwaukee's team size and a high-level front-line of Giannis/Brook/Portis that all have some level of inside-outside skill, Rob Williams is going to be so important in that Bucks series. He was clearly still getting his rhythm and conditioning back against the Nets, but we're going to need regular season Rob to get by the Bucks.

I am surprised the Bucks frontline hasn't hindered them more. That big frontline makes their offense quite static. It leaves Portis and B.Lopez as spot up shooters with limited mobility on the perimeter. Both lack the handles to attack close-outs.

That makes them easier to defend because of the lack of movement and because of the lack of driving threat from the perimeter after Giannis kicks it out on the double team inside. That leaves Jrue as their only reliable dribble drive threat. Grayson Allen is more of a spot-up guy with a limited driving game. So Jrue is the only legit threat. And Jrue is more of an all-rounder offensively than a highly efficient highly effective threat. You can probably live with Jrue having high scoring nights if you can shut the other three guys down.

It's that lack of driving threat and lack of off ball movement that makes them easy to defend in that big alignment.

They have played well against Chicago but Chicago is an average to slightly above average team without Lonzo & a below average defensive team. I wonder if I am giving MIL too much credit for how well they have played without Middleton against CHI and if I am understating the offensive difficulties they will face against a top defensive team like BOS.

Is this more of a 4 or 5 game series than a 5 or 6 game series?

I certainly do not see it as a long hard fought 6 or 7 game series without Middleton.

This could be a short series.

To be clear, I don't anticipate Milwaukee playing all 3 of those guys together much. But they can put 2 of them on the court at pretty much all times. At the end of the day, I think our team size overwhelmed Brooklyn. Every time they made a run, we could find a size mismatch or get an O board to stem the tide. The team size equation should be far more even against Milwaukee.

[Big333223]

Does anyone have any info on the Horford hug of Jaylen Brown after Horford's daggar offensive rebound put back all but ended the game?

JB got the rebound and had the great outlet pass to Smart that triggered the fast break and when running back up court after scoring Horford hugged, in what looked like a consoling manner a Jaylen Brown that looked on the verge of crying.

What was up with that? Did Brown reinjure or tweak his hammy on the play and get super sad at what that could mean for him and the team? The whole thing seemed weird to me.

I think it was Horford celebrating, while JB was just looking stoic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaIY1NqRkgQ

You can see it here.  13.7 seconds left in the game.

I have a thought that JB has a unique sense of humor.  Recall the look on his face when he looked at Smart's left hand?  He does this stoic deadpan thing and I think it's a reflection of his humor/irony...  It looked a little awkward with Horford but I don't think it's meaningful in a bad way -- I think it's just personality...in a good way.

Brown trying to be humorous seems more right than not. Horford's hug and patting of the head definitely didn't give off a celebratory vibe but who knows how those to interact in practice and the locker room. Maybe they do this as a semi mocking celebration there and it carried over.

Yeah, I read that as a combination of Jaylen playing a little but also acknowledging how tired he actually was in that moment.