Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox

[keevsnick]

Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.

except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?

Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?

Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown.

I'm gonna look at efficiency, since I think its fairly obvious each guys will score a little less together than apart. Last year, both guys are all-stars:

Tatum On / Brown off - Tatum 57.0% TS
Tatum On /Brown On - Tatum 58.3% TS

Brown on /Tatum Off - Brown 57.7% TS
Brown on / Tatum On - Brown 59.2% TS

So in both guys best year, both guys were more efficient with the other on the floor than off.

The year before that was to your point somewhat different, Brown was still more efficient with Tatum on court, but Tatum was more efficient with Brown off court in 19-20. But I think you can argue also argue both guys took the kind of moderate but important playmaking leap last year that likely makes 20-21 more representative of the rest of their careers than 19-20.

I care about 0% what the numbers say so far this year. Brown has played only 13 games and five of those since he's been back has been less than 70%. Tatum started out ice cold this year, which he often does and has nothing to do with brown. Brown was just "unlucky" that his healthy games happened to be when Tatum was ice cold which is what is driving these numbers. Then Tatum ate in that 8 game stretch Brown was out against some pretty awful competition. The samples are nowhere near representative enough to draw the conclusions you are trying to draw.

In any event the case clearly isn't as open and shut as you portrayed, given that last year both guys were clearly more efficient with each other on the floor than off on a much larger sample size.

Let me add to this.

If we are to look at the record of the team when Tatum plays but Brown doesn't, let's look at those records when it's most important...the playoffs.

2018:  The team was 10-8 when both played. 1-0 when Tatum played w/o Brown. Team lost in ECF 4-3

2019: The team was 5-4 when both played. Team lost in ECS 1-4

2020: The team was 10-7 when both played. Team lost in ECF 2-4

2021: The team was 1-4 when Tatum played w/o Brown. Team lost in first round 1-4

One more point about the stats this year.

Tatum with Brown: 76.2% from the line
Tatum without Brown: 85.1% from the line

Somebody is gonna have to explain to me how Browns lack of passing skill somehow makes Tatum shoot worse at the line. The answer: It obviously doesn't. What that number tells you is Tatum's inconsistent shooting has nothing to do with Brown, he just happened to be shooting worse everywhere in the games Brown was playing, including at the line where Brown being on the court isn't effecting the shots Tatum is taking. He snapped out of the slump since Brown has been out, but not because Brown was out.

[Surferdad]

Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.

except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?

Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?

Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown.

The question you refuse to address is why? Tatum is the guy who has the primary ball-handling role. Brown doesn't clog the lane. He doesn't stop the ball. Brown is the most consistent 3 point shooter Tatum plays with, and is willing to play the role of stand in the corner guy. Brown doesn't fight his secondary role. Whose fault is this? Its Tatum and the coaching staff, not Brown.

I agree the team would be better if we had a great passer on the roster, but Tatum is the needy one here and Brown is the one who figures out his role regardless of what the team asks of him. He's the one who is hurt, but still find a way to out battle Joel Embiid on the block at the end of his last game, while Tatum dominates the ball.

The answer is easy, because Brown needs the ball, and Brown is such a poor passer that he doesn't set up Tatum well.  Brown has been most often replaced in the starting lineup by Schroder.  Schroder is a much better passer and gets the ball to Tatum in much better positions and times.  Tatum shoots better without Brown, because Schroder sets Tatum up better.  It isn't rocket science, it is quite simply Brown isn't the right type of player to put next to Tatum.

I've been scanning all the threads to find some ideas about what is wrong with this team and what to do about it.  A trade is the most common remedy proposed and for good reasons.  BUT, you will always have to give something up in a trade, and I actually like our roster, the depth and the young players coming along.

So, if Jaylen's passing ability and willingness to pass is the problem, then it seems to me that he has to improve and the coaching staff has to instill that in him.  Every other facet of his game is above average and he has been an All-Star.  Why give up all that talent because he's not a willing or able passer?  Isn't this is something that can be improved with coaching and reps?

[Who]

Not convinced Jaylen is a bad fit with Tatum

Furthermore, I am not convinced anyone else is a particularly good fit with Tatum either. Tatum plays better without Jaylen because Tatum gets more of the offense run through him -- accepted.

Tatum is still a very individualistic player similar to someone like Carmelo Anthony. Tatum doesn't create great chemistry with others. He doesn't get much offense from playing off of others. He is the creator. He is the scorer. And he is much more of a scorer than a passer.

I believe Tatum will have problems creating 1-2 punch with high usage PGs (like D'Aaron Fox), ball-handling wings (your turn, my turn), post orientated big men (say Embiid).

Tatum just ... does not naturally create connections with other players on the court. He is a fantastic individual player & creator. He is not a fantastic team player.

Swapping Jaylen for another star is not going to change that.

[Irish Stew]

All I want to see is a multi-month period of a healthy Brown, Williams, and Tatum. If that doesn't result in extensive improvement, I think that you may have to consider a major trade in the offseason.

Regardless of what happens with Brown's health, I would at least consider a trade involving Smart and Hield when that becomes legal. A team that is built around 3 point shooting has to have shooters.

Losing to that version of the Clippers was very depressing.

[Vermont Green]

I am also skeptical of this theory that Brown and Tatum are incompatible or that Tatum is better without Tatum.  I looked at the 5 man line ups for when Tatum plays with Brown (+32 in 304 minutes) and without Brown (+40 in 641 minutes).  This is an indication of how well the team plays vs. how well Tatum plays.  You can interpret this a few different ways but I think +32 in 304 minutes (+3.8 per36) is better than +40 in 641 minutes (+2.2 per36).  Not a huge difference but definitely not better without Brown.

[SHAQATTACK]

I am also skeptical of this theory that Brown and Tatum are incompatible or that Tatum is better without Tatum.  I looked at the 5 man line ups for when Tatum plays with Brown (+32 in 304 minutes) and without Brown (+40 in 641 minutes).  This is an indication of how well the team plays vs. how well Tatum plays.  You can interpret this a few different ways but I think +32 in 304 minutes (+3.8 per36) is better than +40 in 641 minutes (+2.2 per36).  Not a huge difference but definitely not better without Brown.

I tend to agree.   What they both need is health , for the whole team to be healthy for more than one or two games at a time .   

[Moranis]

Not convinced Jaylen is a bad fit with Tatum

Furthermore, I am not convinced anyone else is a particularly good fit with Tatum either. Tatum plays better without Jaylen because Tatum gets more of the offense run through him -- accepted.

Tatum is still a very individualistic player similar to someone like Carmelo Anthony. Tatum doesn't create great chemistry with others. He doesn't get much offense from playing off of others. He is the creator. He is the scorer. And he is much more of a scorer than a passer.

I believe Tatum will have problems creating 1-2 punch with high usage PGs (like D'Aaron Fox), ball-handling wings (your turn, my turn), post orientated big men (say Embiid).

Tatum just ... does not naturally create connections with other players on the court. He is a fantastic individual player & creator. He is not a fantastic team player.

Swapping Jaylen for another star is not going to change that.

The thing is though the team is better than the other team with Tatum in the game and significantly worse when he isn't on the floor.  Every single season of his career.  Per 100 possessions, the Celtics are +6.4 with Tatum on the floor and his on/off differential per 100 possessions is +7.4.  Those are both borderline elite numbers.  Tatum quite simply, plays winning basketball even if it isn't the prettiest basketball in the world.

[todd_days_41]

All I want to see is a multi-month period of a healthy Brown, Williams, and Tatum. If that doesn't result in extensive improvement, I think that you may have to consider a major trade in the offseason.

Regardless of what happens with Brown's health, I would at least consider a trade involving Smart and Hield when that becomes legal. A team that is built around 3 point shooting has to have shooters.

Losing to that version of the Clippers was very depressing.

All I want is peace on earth. Should I hold our hope for it?

[pokeKingCurtis]

All I want to see is a multi-month period of a healthy Brown, Williams, and Tatum. If that doesn't result in extensive improvement, I think that you may have to consider a major trade in the offseason.

Regardless of what happens with Brown's health, I would at least consider a trade involving Smart and Hield when that becomes legal. A team that is built around 3 point shooting has to have shooters.

Losing to that version of the Clippers was very depressing.

Hopefully towards the end of the year we get some consistency and, as you mention, end up being generally healthy. Trending up, but very slowly...!

[pokeKingCurtis]

Not convinced Jaylen is a bad fit with Tatum

Furthermore, I am not convinced anyone else is a particularly good fit with Tatum either. Tatum plays better without Jaylen because Tatum gets more of the offense run through him -- accepted.

Tatum is still a very individualistic player similar to someone like Carmelo Anthony. Tatum doesn't create great chemistry with others. He doesn't get much offense from playing off of others. He is the creator. He is the scorer. And he is much more of a scorer than a passer.

I believe Tatum will have problems creating 1-2 punch with high usage PGs (like D'Aaron Fox), ball-handling wings (your turn, my turn), post orientated big men (say Embiid).

Tatum just ... does not naturally create connections with other players on the court. He is a fantastic individual player & creator. He is not a fantastic team player.

Swapping Jaylen for another star is not going to change that.

That's interesting. Do you think Tatum is improving there? Certainly feels like he's trying.

Same thing for Jaylen, I mean he dances on offense and is incredible, and plays fantastic one on one D, but doesn't seem to lift the team.

Feels to me they're both trying to play more teamball. Reboudning...passing...picking their spots.

[Who]

Not convinced Jaylen is a bad fit with Tatum

Furthermore, I am not convinced anyone else is a particularly good fit with Tatum either. Tatum plays better without Jaylen because Tatum gets more of the offense run through him -- accepted.

Tatum is still a very individualistic player similar to someone like Carmelo Anthony. Tatum doesn't create great chemistry with others. He doesn't get much offense from playing off of others. He is the creator. He is the scorer. And he is much more of a scorer than a passer.

I believe Tatum will have problems creating 1-2 punch with high usage PGs (like D'Aaron Fox), ball-handling wings (your turn, my turn), post orientated big men (say Embiid).

Tatum just ... does not naturally create connections with other players on the court. He is a fantastic individual player & creator. He is not a fantastic team player.

Swapping Jaylen for another star is not going to change that.

That's interesting. Do you think Tatum is improving there? Certainly feels like he's trying.

Same thing for Jaylen, I mean he dances on offense and is incredible, and plays fantastic one on one D, but doesn't seem to lift the team.

Feels to me they're both trying to play more teamball. Reboudning...passing...picking their spots.

Yes, definitely.

It is more that I do not see this as a Jaylen-only problem. More of a problem that both share and one that would be repeated by Tatum with his new co-star if Jaylen were to be traded.

It does not strike me as a good reason to move Jaylen if the same issue is likely to occur with the next co-star. Better to be patient and let them both keep growing.

[Big333223]

Brown returns, Celtics win, Tatum goes for 42 on 25 shots.

Why anyone is trying to break these kids up is beyond me.

[todd_days_41]

Brown returns, Celtics win, Tatum goes for 42 on 25 shots.

Why anyone is trying to break these kids up is beyond me.

Because the Celtics are .500 over their last 100 games, they play the same position, and Brown is hurt a lot? Let's see the Cs play at a .625 clip over 15-20 games with the team intact, and the talk will die down.

[wdleehi]

Brown returns, Celtics win, Tatum goes for 42 on 25 shots.

Why anyone is trying to break these kids up is beyond me.

Because the Celtics are .500 over their last 100 games, they play the same position, and Brown is hurt a lot? Let's see the Cs play at a .625 clip over 15-20 games with the team intact, and the talk will die down.

I had no idea all these players and coaches had been together for 100 straight games.   


And as far as I can see, Tatum was a SF and Brown was a SG.   Still have to fill both those positions with swing men.


I want to see improved play around them.   Let us see some better outside shooting from other players to open up the floor.   

[todd_days_41]

Brown returns, Celtics win, Tatum goes for 42 on 25 shots.

Why anyone is trying to break these kids up is beyond me.

Because the Celtics are .500 over their last 100 games, they play the same position, and Brown is hurt a lot? Let's see the Cs play at a .625 clip over 15-20 games with the team intact, and the talk will die down.

I had no idea all these players and coaches had been together for 100 straight games.   


And as far as I can see, Tatum was a SF and Brown was a SG.   Still have to fill both those positions with swing men.


I want to see improved play around them.   Let us see some better outside shooting from other players to open up the floor.

Brown's a "SG" because Tatum is a SF.

And I agree! Don't we all. I'm all for the Cs trading literally everyone other than Brown, Tatum and the Williams Bros if it means better roster construction and shooting. Just have a lot of doubt about the value of anyone on the Cs outside those 4.