Author Topic: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox  (Read 12852 times)

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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #45 on: December 07, 2021, 10:32:23 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

It really is perplexing. On the surface, a two-way All-Star level wing who doesn't need to control the ball all of the time should be a perfect fit on any team, but history has shown that his presence isn't always necessary for this team to succeed. I don't know what better 'fit' there is out there - I do think our team excels with an All-Star level PG, but perhaps keeping Jaylen and trying to obtain a player like Fox would really unlock this team.

I don't want to just trade Jaylen - it would definitely have to be for another All-Star or somebody who is definitely going to be an All-Star - but it is a little frustrating (while at the same time, promising) watching our team perform just fine without him.

Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #46 on: December 07, 2021, 10:50:41 AM »

Offline Rosco917

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.



I like Jaylen as one on one scorer and as a solid defender. But the fact is, he's one of the worst passers in the NBA. Not only is he an unwilling and below average passer, but he doesn't even address the problem. Brown is a ball stopper, a one on one specialist. Yes, he does have a place on ANY team in the NBA, but put him next to Tatum and it's easy to see why this team struggles.

At least Tatum is trying to diversify his game, unlike Brown. Jaylen is willing to take a back seat to Tatum in team pecking order, but he'll be [dang]ed if he'll take a back seat to anyone else. Hence the my turn, your turn offense the C's sometimes has to deal with.

When Brown is on the bench, ball movement improves. The remaining players get more involved without having to deal with another player that needs to be fed the ball. 

Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2021, 11:09:25 AM »

Offline lbgreen33

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I would actually make the trade for De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III.  Bagley has actually played well when given a chance.  I Love Jaylen Brown! I am actually nervous about his future and potential for injuries. He just doesn't seem to move fluid to me. I don't know what it is, but he seems to shuffle around. Jaylen is an amazing person and player, but I would do that trade.

Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #48 on: December 07, 2021, 11:10:22 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

It really is perplexing. On the surface, a two-way All-Star level wing who doesn't need to control the ball all of the time should be a perfect fit on any team, but history has shown that his presence isn't always necessary for this team to succeed. I don't know what better 'fit' there is out there - I do think our team excels with an All-Star level PG, but perhaps keeping Jaylen and trying to obtain a player like Fox would really unlock this team.

I don't want to just trade Jaylen - it would definitely have to be for another All-Star or somebody who is definitely going to be an All-Star - but it is a little frustrating (while at the same time, promising) watching our team perform just fine without him.
As I said, I probably wouldn't do something like Brown/Hernangomez for Fox/Bagley, but I would consider it as Fox's talent is at least close to Brown (Fox has basically outperformed Brown every year of their careers when comparing the same experience i.e. rookie to rookie, 2nd to 2nd, etc.).  They do different things, but I do think Fox's significantly better passing would help open up the offense.  When Schroder is the best passer (and it may actually be Horford) the team has had since Rondo left in 2015, it is a problem because it isn't like Schroder is a great passer.  I do think someone like Fox could take the team to new heights despite his terrible defense.  Again, I'm not sure I would do it, but I wouldn't just foreclose it without giving it some real thought. 

I keep hoping Towns is going to ask out in Minnesota as that is the guy I'd most want to trade Brown for.  I think he'd be awesome as Tatum's #2 man, but that doesn't look like it will happen this year. 
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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #49 on: December 07, 2021, 11:27:10 AM »

Offline todd_days_41

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I think Haliburton is the better long term player, not to mention a better fit for the Cs.

Fox is score first with iffy shooting, and big committed money. Haliburton is dish first with better shooting, whose RFA time  still has yet to come.

If anything, we should be aspiring to a deal built around TH, not Fox.


Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #50 on: December 07, 2021, 03:39:50 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Celtics would be giving up the best player in that trade, which I don't like. I also don't see how it moves the needle on improving the C's.

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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #51 on: December 07, 2021, 04:23:11 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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I think Haliburton is the better long term player, not to mention a better fit for the Cs.

Fox is score first with iffy shooting, and big committed money. Haliburton is dish first with better shooting, whose RFA time  still has yet to come.

If anything, we should be aspiring to a deal built around TH, not Fox.



 I suggested trading all 3 firsts that year to snag Haliburton.

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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #52 on: December 07, 2021, 04:48:18 PM »

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?

Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #53 on: December 08, 2021, 11:35:54 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics entering this year has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2021, 12:17:09 PM by Moranis »
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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #54 on: December 08, 2021, 12:25:36 PM »

Offline td450

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?


Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #55 on: December 08, 2021, 02:21:08 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?
Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown. 
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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #56 on: December 09, 2021, 10:34:45 AM »

Offline td450

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?
Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown.

The question you refuse to address is why? Tatum is the guy who has the primary ball-handling role. Brown doesn't clog the lane. He doesn't stop the ball. Brown is the most consistent 3 point shooter Tatum plays with, and is willing to play the role of stand in the corner guy. Brown doesn't fight his secondary role. Whose fault is this? Its Tatum and the coaching staff, not Brown.

I agree the team would be better if we had a great passer on the roster, but Tatum is the needy one here and Brown is the one who figures out his role regardless of what the team asks of him. He's the one who is hurt, but still find a way to out battle Joel Embiid on the block at the end of his last game, while Tatum dominates the ball.

Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #57 on: December 09, 2021, 10:56:48 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?
Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown.

The question you refuse to address is why? Tatum is the guy who has the primary ball-handling role. Brown doesn't clog the lane. He doesn't stop the ball. Brown is the most consistent 3 point shooter Tatum plays with, and is willing to play the role of stand in the corner guy. Brown doesn't fight his secondary role. Whose fault is this? Its Tatum and the coaching staff, not Brown.

I agree the team would be better if we had a great passer on the roster, but Tatum is the needy one here and Brown is the one who figures out his role regardless of what the team asks of him. He's the one who is hurt, but still find a way to out battle Joel Embiid on the block at the end of his last game, while Tatum dominates the ball.
The answer is easy, because Brown needs the ball, and Brown is such a poor passer that he doesn't set up Tatum well.  Brown has been most often replaced in the starting lineup by Schroder.  Schroder is a much better passer and gets the ball to Tatum in much better positions and times.  Tatum shoots better without Brown, because Schroder sets Tatum up better.  It isn't rocket science, it is quite simply Brown isn't the right type of player to put next to Tatum.
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Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #58 on: December 09, 2021, 11:49:37 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?
Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown.

I'm gonna look at efficiency, since I think its fairly obvious each guys will score a little less together than apart. Last year, both guys are all-stars:

Tatum On / Brown off - Tatum 57.0% TS
Tatum On /Brown On - Tatum 58.3% TS

Brown on /Tatum Off - Brown 57.7% TS
Brown on / Tatum On - Brown 59.2% TS

So in both guys best year, both guys were more efficient with the other on the floor than off.

The year before that was to your point somewhat different, Brown was still more efficient with Tatum on court, but Tatum was more efficient with Brown off court in 19-20. But I think you can argue also argue both guys took the kind of moderate but important playmaking leap last year that likely makes 20-21 more representative of the rest of their careers than 19-20.

I care about 0% what the numbers say so far this year. Brown has played only 13 games and five of those since he's been back has been less than 70%. Tatum started out ice cold this year, which he often does and has nothing to do with brown. Brown was just "unlucky" that his healthy games happened to be when Tatum was ice cold which is what is driving these numbers. Then Tatum ate in that 8 game stretch Brown was out against some pretty awful competition. The samples are nowhere near representative enough to draw the conclusions you are trying to draw.

In any event the case clearly isn't as open and shut as you portrayed, given that last year both guys were clearly more efficient with each other on the floor than off on a much larger sample size.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 11:55:28 AM by keevsnick »

Re: Idea: Jaylen for Hield and Fox
« Reply #59 on: December 09, 2021, 12:08:04 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Brown's numbers are also down across the board this year, so it isn't just a Fox thing.  I don't really like Hield at all.  I'd much rather have Barnes or Bagley.  I probably wouldn't do it, but I'd at least consider Fox and Bagley for Brown and Hernangomez.  Schroder has shown what a real PG can do for the C's, but Tatum in particular, I just don't think he is here long term, and the team could do a lot worse than a guy like Fox going forward.  I'd certainly be worried about his numbers this year, but as I mentioned, it isn't like Brown is tearing it up either.  I've always liked Bagley.  He hasn't been able to stay healthy and Luke Walton was so bad as a coach that those things set him back some, but Bagley has immense talent.  If he could somehow be unlocked, it would be a huge get for the C's.

Brown's numbers down partly due to injury m8. Pre injury he scored about 15pts/game more than post.

This why we saying; give him some time.
except he is always hurt and Boston is AGAIN better in the games he hasn't played as Boston is just 6-7 with Brown, but is 7-4 without him.  This continues the trend for the team that has existed since Tatum entered the league.  Boston wins at the same or a better pace when Brown isn't on the floor because imo Brown is just not a good fit with Tatum and when he isn't in the game, Tatum and everyone else just play better.

Last year we went 7/13 without Brown.

Not sure how you're calculating this. Do you use the moon's orbit?
Since Tatum entered the league the Celtics and entering this year Boston has been better without Brown twice, the exact same once, and slightly worse once.  Thus far this year, they are better without Brown.  Since that has happened twice before, using the word again is accurate.

Statistics works better as sample sizes increase. Brown has been the second best player on the team for 2+ years. He doesn't steer the team by himself. You are looking at a very small sample size, with lots of statistical noise.

Look at this year's scenario. The team started the year with Tatum and Smart, among others playing horribly bad, and Brown playing very efficiently. I guess you could claim that Brown caused the other players to play badly, but that's a tough argument to swallow, especially given that Tatum and Smart have roles that don't depend on Brown much at all. The argument would be strictly one where Brown takes up touches and shots and ruins their chi. Really? Cause those guys still get their shots and touches anyway.

So Brown gets hurt, and Tatum and Smart start to play better. Was that because Brown went away, or was it mostly due to regression to the mean? Given who controls the ball the most, who is more responsible for making the team dynamic work, anyway?

You can see causation in this or you can see the correlation. Which makes more sense?
Tatum absolutely plays better without Brown on the floor.  He always has, which is why the team performs at a similar level without Brown.  Take the 8 games that Brown missed consecutively.  Tatum averaged 28.6 p, 9.1 r, 3.6 a shooting 41.6% from 3.  In the 5 games after that when Brown was back, Tatum averaged 20.6 p, 9.8 r, 4.0 a shooting 21.1% from 3.  And the 6 games before the 8 game stretch, 22.5 p, 7.8 r, 3.5 a on 27.5% from 3.  The last 3 games without Brown, Tatum back up to 34.0 p, 8.0 r, 4.0 a on 45.8% from 3. 

You can do this every single season and find similar results.  Yes it is a smaller sample size, but it holds true pretty consistently that Tatum plays significantly better when he doesn't share the court with Brown.  So contrary to your assertion, Brown does hamper Tatum.  They do not fit well together.  Tatum is just better without Brown, and Tatum is quite simply a better and more impactful player than Brown.

I'm gonna look at efficiency, since I think its fairly obvious each guys will score a little less together than apart. Last year, both guys are all-stars:

Tatum On / Brown off - Tatum 57.0% TS
Tatum On /Brown On - Tatum 58.3% TS

Brown on /Tatum Off - Brown 57.7% TS
Brown on / Tatum On - Brown 59.2% TS

So in both guys best year, both guys were more efficient with the other on the floor than off.

The year before that was to your point somewhat different, Brown was still more efficient with Tatum on court, but Tatum was more efficient with Brown off court in 19-20. But I think you can argue also argue both guys took the kind of moderate but important playmaking leap last year that likely makes 20-21 more representative of the rest of their careers than 19-20.

I care about 0% what the numbers say so far this year. Brown has played only 13 games and five of those since he's been back has been less than 70%. Tatum started out ice cold this year, which he often does and has nothing to do with brown. Brown was just "unlucky" that his healthy games happened to be when Tatum was ice cold which is what is driving these numbers. Then Tatum ate in that 8 game stretch Brown was out against some pretty awful competition. The samples are nowhere near representative enough to draw the conclusions you are trying to draw.

In any event the case clearly isn't as open and shut as you portrayed, given that last year both guys were clearly more efficient with each other on the floor than off on a much larger sample size.
Let me add to this.

If we are to look at the record of the team when Tatum plays but Brown doesn't, let's look at those records when it's most important...the playoffs.

2018:  The team was 10-8 when both played. 1-0 when Tatum played w/o Brown. Team lost in ECF 4-3

2019: The team was 5-4 when both played. Team lost in ECS 1-4

2020: The team was 10-7 when both played. Team lost in ECF 2-4

2021: The team was 1-4 when Tatum played w/o Brown. Team lost in first round 1-4

So in the most important games both players played in they were 25-19 and went into the ECS once and the ECF twice. But in games Tatum played but Brown didn't the team was 2-4 and the team didn't get past the first round
« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 12:38:39 PM by nickagneta »