Smart Foul with 12 seconds left/5 seconds on shot clock

[JohnBoy65]

Mental mistakes happen all the time. Obviously the most famous is Chris Webber's infamous timeout (Probably the worst of all).

I think the way our season started, the emotion that we all have for the team, and the frustration on the first 9 games are clouding our judgement.

This team played short handed against a very good team in the west. They answered all the questions we have about them. The fought, they were resilient, they played great defense when they needed to, and they played great offense when they needed too. Furthermore, everyone played their role exactly the way they needed to. We've wanted answers to the above questions all season, and the celtics responded.

Sure, the foul shouldn't have happened, but whatever. We lost to one of the best teams in the west on a prayer. I am ok with it.

[The Oracle]

According to the win probability calculator I just used the C's prospects of winning after the Doncic rebound with 30 seconds left was 39.1%.  After the Smart foul with 11 seconds left the C's win probability was 38.1%.  Smart's mistake was a net loss of 1% in win%.

Tatum's failure to box out Porzingis (-19.4%) and Shroder's late turnover (-16.6%) were far more costly.

[Vermont Green]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

[Neurotic Guy]

According to the win probability calculator I just used the C's prospects of winning after the Doncic rebound with 30 seconds left was 39.1%.  After the Smart foul with 11 seconds left the C's win probability was 38.1%.  Smart's mistake was a net loss of 1% in win%.

Tatum's failure to box out Porzingis (-19.4%) and Shroder's late turnover (-16.6%) were far more costly.

Seems weird for the C's to have a 38% win probability when they would have very little chance of getting possession of the ball.   I'm guessing the calculation involves a high likelihood that the game goes to OT and then the C's win in OT.    C's winning that game in regulation would have to be extremely low after Smart's foul.

[Vermont Green]

According to the win probability calculator I just used the C's prospects of winning after the Doncic rebound with 30 seconds left was 39.1%.  After the Smart foul with 11 seconds left the C's win probability was 38.1%.  Smart's mistake was a net loss of 1% in win%.

Tatum's failure to box out Porzingis (-19.4%) and Shroder's late turnover (-16.6%) were far more costly.

Seems weird for the C's to have a 38% win probability when they would have very little chance of getting possession of the ball.   I'm guessing the calculation involves a high likelihood that the game goes to OT and then the C's win in OT.    C's winning that game in regulation would have to be extremely low after Smart's foul.

I don't know all the percentages but with 11 seconds left, the most likely outcome was still OT.  Once you get into OT, maybe it is 50% likely the Celtics win.  So this would work out as 24% Chance Dallas in Regulation, 38% Chance Dallas in OT, and 38% Chance Boston in OT, if the OT is exactly 50/50 and Boston in regulation is 0%.  The 24% Dallas in Regulation does seem low.  There was probably still some small but not zero chance the Celtics win in regulation.

[droopdog7]

According to the win probability calculator I just used the C's prospects of winning after the Doncic rebound with 30 seconds left was 39.1%.  After the Smart foul with 11 seconds left the C's win probability was 38.1%.  Smart's mistake was a net loss of 1% in win%.

Tatum's failure to box out Porzingis (-19.4%) and Shroder's late turnover (-16.6%) were far more costly.

Surprisingly small difference BUT, I draw a big distinction between physical mistakes (which are less controllable) and just doing something stupid.

[Roy H.]

According to the win probability calculator I just used the C's prospects of winning after the Doncic rebound with 30 seconds left was 39.1%.  After the Smart foul with 11 seconds left the C's win probability was 38.1%.  Smart's mistake was a net loss of 1% in win%.

Tatum's failure to box out Porzingis (-19.4%) and Shroder's late turnover (-16.6%) were far more costly.

Win probability is useless, though.  It’s meaningless.

[LilRip]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

That’s… a really weird take. Do you really have to tell a guy to not foul intentionally? I assume that’s the default. Seems like everyone knew not to foul too.

Also, it’s not like Smart was going aggressively for the steal (the way TL did when he sent it out of bounds). He literally just gave up the foul. Luka had already caught the ball.

[nickagneta]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

I think you are making some bad assumptions here that aren't in line with what Udoka said in his post game presser.

I thought I read Udoka said the plan was not to foul and said as much. Udoka said he has to communicate better but communication is a  two way street. Smart could have misunderstood or didn't hear or decided to ignore Udoka. All those possibilities are Smart's issue in the communication.

Once the coach says something in the huddle, it should be followed. The coach is the authority figure and the players should be listening and then following his instructions. The coach shouldn't have to grab each guy and make sure they listened to him and understood his directions. It's the player's job to be listening and following the coach. If they don't it's all on them, or in this case, all on Smart.

[liam]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

I think you are making some bad assumptions here that aren't in line with what Udoka said in his post game presser.

I thought I read Udoka said the plan was not to foul and said as much. Udoka said he has to communicate better but communication is a  two way street. Smart could have misunderstood or didn't hear or decided to ignore Udoka. All those possibilities are Smart's issue in the communication.

Once the coach says something in the huddle, it should be followed. The coach is the authority figure and the players should be listening and then following his instructions. The coach shouldn't have to grab each guy and make sure they listened to him and understood his directions. It's the player's job to be listening and following the coach. If they don't it's all on them, or in this case, all on Smart.

Smart should also now by now that it was a boneheaded foul.

[BudweiserCeltic]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

I think you are making some bad assumptions here that aren't in line with what Udoka said in his post game presser.

I thought I read Udoka said the plan was not to foul and said as much. Udoka said he has to communicate better but communication is a  two way street. Smart could have misunderstood or didn't hear or decided to ignore Udoka. All those possibilities are Smart's issue in the communication.

Once the coach says something in the huddle, it should be followed. The coach is the authority figure and the players should be listening and then following his instructions. The coach shouldn't have to grab each guy and make sure they listened to him and understood his directions. It's the player's job to be listening and following the coach. If they don't it's all on them, or in this case, all on Smart.

What I gathered was that he didn't tell the players, but some individuals came up to him and ask and he answered them. So not necessarily in a huddle. I think that's why his quote seems a bit contradictory, like he told them but not all of them? Maybe he assumed the players he told would spread the word and they didn't? Or they did and Smart forgot or had a brain fart?

From a management standpoint, the small things need to be reminded at pivotal moments. Assuming that players will have a clear head to know they shouldn't foul is one mistake coaches make very often, and easy to fix if you just remind them. With few exception, all coaches do this mistake.

At these moments, I think it's pivotal for coaches to stress this and remind players. Some think it's common sense to not foul and shouldn't need to be said. But it only takes one mistake, easily fixed with a 1 second phrase.

Player and coach carry the burden in this one from what I've seen so far.

[showtime]

Smart fouled him as soon as he touched the ball! How is it possible he thought this could help us? It's 100% on Smart!!

[Ogaju]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

I think you are making some bad assumptions here that aren't in line with what Udoka said in his post game presser.

I thought I read Udoka said the plan was not to foul and said as much. Udoka said he has to communicate better but communication is a  two way street. Smart could have misunderstood or didn't hear or decided to ignore Udoka. All those possibilities are Smart's issue in the communication.

Once the coach says something in the huddle, it should be followed. The coach is the authority figure and the players should be listening and then following his instructions. The coach shouldn't have to grab each guy and make sure they listened to him and understood his directions. It's the player's job to be listening and following the coach. If they don't it's all on them, or in this case, all on Smart.

What I gathered was that he didn't tell the players, but some individuals came up to him and ask and he answered them. So not necessarily in a huddle. I think that's why his quote seems a bit contradictory, like he told them but not all of them? Maybe he assumed the players he told would spread the word and they didn't? Or they did and Smart forgot or had a brain fart?

From a management standpoint, the small things need to be reminded at pivotal moments. Assuming that players will have a clear head to know they shouldn't foul is one mistake coaches make very often, and easy to fix if you just remind them. With few exception, all coaches do this mistake.

At these moments, I think it's pivotal for coaches to stress this and remind players. Some think it's common sense to not foul and shouldn't need to be said. But it only takes one mistake, easily fixed with a 1 second phrase.

Player and coach carry the burden in this one from what I've seen so far.

TP. Probably the best take on the subject. It is the coaches job to let the players know. The players are in the heat of the game. The coaches should have more sense of the rules, the foul count, and most important of all what they want from the team.

[Vermont Green]

None of us know what was said on not said by the coach in the huddle.  The coach should have made this very clear.  No foul and here's what we do on a miss, here is what we do on a make (probably time out in both cases).  If they get an offensive board, then foul.  If Udoka did this and Smart still made the foul, it is on Smart.  Who knows how it would have turned out.

My guess is that Udoka just assumed everyone knew not to foul and maybe did not emphasize that.  Smart should have known not to foul and if he thought that was what the coach wanted, should have asked to make sure.  I guess I come down more on Smart on this unless the coach said, foul (which is probably not he case).  I bet in the future, Udoka will grab Smart and say "you know not to foul, right?".

I think you are making some bad assumptions here that aren't in line with what Udoka said in his post game presser.

I thought I read Udoka said the plan was not to foul and said as much. Udoka said he has to communicate better but communication is a  two way street. Smart could have misunderstood or didn't hear or decided to ignore Udoka. All those possibilities are Smart's issue in the communication.

Once the coach says something in the huddle, it should be followed. The coach is the authority figure and the players should be listening and then following his instructions. The coach shouldn't have to grab each guy and make sure they listened to him and understood his directions. It's the player's job to be listening and following the coach. If they don't it's all on them, or in this case, all on Smart.

Smart should also now by now that it was a boneheaded foul.

That is pretty much exactly what I said.  Smart should have known not to foul.  That is on him.  I am guessing that Udoka assumed everyone knew that and didn't stress in the huddle.  Someone said that some players asked him after the huddle if they should intentionally foul or not (apparently not Smart though).  If this is true, it supports my assumption that Udoka didn't address it specifically in the huddle.

If I was the coach, I would have said it loud and clear, no fouls, tough D but no fouls.  That is the most important thing.  It needed to be said out loud, even if every player should have known it.  Then you have to set a strategy for how to double.  Then whether or not to call time out after you get the ball.  What else was there to talk about other than that? 

[nickagneta]

Udoka's words were: "when coming out of the huddle I let the guys know, no fouls". That's after saying there was no strategy to foul and there wasn't supposed to be a foul.

That's not, some guys came up to me after the huddle was over and I let them know not to foul

That's not I let some guys know and others not after the huddle was over

That's when coming out of the huddle, like just before they were breaking up, that he let the guys know, all the guys.

He then went on to take blame and take the heat off Smart for not doing what he told the guys.