21-22 College Football Thread

[Moranis]

Congrats Bearcats! CFP finally putting them as the #4 seed in the playoffs.

That Michigan-Ohio State game this weekend will be INSANE. I kind of hope Michigan gets the upset and adds to the chaos (but also I feel at some point Michigan has to do something in this rivalry... right?)

It won't really be chaos though.  The winner will play for the Big Ten title and if they win that will be in the playoff.  The loser will not.  Chaos is Alabama losing to Auburn and then beating Georgia.  That will cause all sorts of potential problems.

Right that's a good point I completely forgot about that.

I think right now, Georgia feels like the only "guarantee" for the playoffs. Because even if they lose to Alabama I think they'll stay a 3 or 4 seed.

Now if Georgia loses to GTech this weekend then oh boy lol...

A Cincinnati loss at any time also throws the final 4 into chaos. Suddenly you have a lot of teams looking at their spot.

If OK State or Oklahoma win out to become a 1-loss B12 champ, there's a good chance they jump an undefeated Cincy for the 4th spot.

Yeah, it’s set up for OK State to have a chance to jump, ranked 7 with either a back-to-back against OU, or OU and Baylor.

Given that OU is 10, behind 2-loss Baylor, I don’t think they could get the momentum to jump Cincy.  The committee is not impressed enough with them.  But 12-1 OK St would make things very tough for the committee.

It would but losing to Iowa St. is just bad.  That is a bad loss that I have a hard time giving them a pass for.  If they had lost to Baylor in a close game and then beaten Baylor in the conference championship, I think that would be easier for them to have Okie St. jump Cincinnati, but losing to Iowa St. is basically an indefensible loss for a playoff contender when there are other viable options (like if UC loses and ND loses, then sure put the other OSU in).

And I still have no idea how good Baylor actually is.  I mean they lost to TCU.  The same TCU that lost to SMU and Texas and barely beat Cal and Kansas.  TCU is a horrid loss and if Baylor can lose to them, I'm not sure how good they actually are when Baylor's non-conference games are Texas St., Texas Southern, and BYU.  BYU is an ok team, but they haven't exactly played a difficult schedule and lost to a 4 loss Boise team. 

The Big 12 is just bad this year.  When Houston, Boise St., BYU, and Nebraska are the best non-conference wins, it is really hard to get a read on the conference, especially when they've struggled in many of those non-conference games and the better teams have struggled within the conference.

Iowa St. isn’t a bad team.  They’re not great, but the computers have them at #31 on average.  OK St. lost on the road by a field goal.  That’s not a disqualifying loss if they get two big wins the next two weeks.  The Committee had Oregon ahead of Cinci despite a loss to a much worse Stanford team, and I think they’d likely bump OK St. if they win out.  Certainly Cinci would need to win convincingly.  Style points matter.

+1 for the bolded.  I don't think that is a bad loss.  It is hard to win on the road in the big12.  The top 4 teams in the Big 12 were closer than the standings might indicate.  Iowa State was ranked for part of the year.  Had some good wins, and is 7-5 not 6-5.  They have one of the top, if not top running back in the country.  Maybe Moranis doesn't follow big12 football enough, but ISU is a pretty talented team that didn't completely live up to expectations.  Baylor only beat Iowa State by 2 points in a really close game at Baylor (ISU outgained Baylor 479-282, Baylor was lucky to win the game)

They lost 4 big 12 games by a combined 19 points.  Those were really close games with Baylor, Oklahoma, WV and TT, where Iowa State was the road team for all of those games.  A couple plays shift and they could have easily won 2 of those games and then they are 9-3 and 7-2 with a chance to be in the big 12 championship game.  Sometimes the context matters.

they were 6-5 when I posted it. And it is a bad loss for a contender.  You can't lose to a team with 5 losses, especially one that only beat 1 other FBS team with a winning record.  A team that beat a mediocre FCS team by 6 points. Iowa State is mediocre which makes it a bad loss.

bolded isn't true.  At least look up the actual information.  ISU beat Okie State and Kansas State.  Kansas State is 7-5 and going to a bowl as well.  Iowa State underperformed, but even with that they are bowl bound at 7-5.  4th in the Big12, ranked for a large part of the year.  The Okie State loss to Iowa State isn't a disqualifying loss for them.  It isn't like the Baylor's loss to TCU.  TCU isn't even bowl eligible and ISU routed TCU 48-14.

1 other

[Phantom255x]

Still a long ways to go but potential upset alert in Auburn.

Alabama down 7-0 and they honestly haven’t looked that great so far

[Roy H.]

Dang.  Who had Alabama getting held to 3 points?

[Celtics2021]

Dang.  Who had Alabama getting held to 3 points?

They’re marching down the field now — did you speak to soon?

[Celtics2021]

Dang.  Who had Alabama getting held to 3 points?

They’re marching down the field now — did you speak to soon?

97 yards in just over a minute.  Wow!

[Birdman]

Goodbye Ohio State!!!! Let’s go Auburn (they are my team)

[Roy H.]

Dang.  Who had Alabama getting held to 3 points?

They’re marching down the field now — did you speak to soon?

97 yards in just over a minute.  Wow!

Yeah, they’re getting pressured every play, but they came up big.  And as the announcers said, Auburn made a huge bonehead move getting tackled in bounds.

[Roy H.]

Rivalry weekend is such a treat.

[Celtics2021]

Dang.  Who had Alabama getting held to 3 points?

They’re marching down the field now — did you speak to soon?

97 yards in just over a minute.  Wow!

Yeah, they’re getting pressured every play, but they came up big.  And as the announcers said, Auburn made a huge bonehead move getting tackled in bounds.

Yep.  If Auburn scores they need to go for 2.  No way they’re outlasting Bama

[Roy H.]

Bama is still alive.  Georgia looks unbeatable though.

[Phantom255x]

Very ugly win for Alabama but still a big one. I mean, unless if Georgia blows out Alabama by like 25+ I don't see Alabama being left out of the playoffs. Same with Georgia if they lose, they'd just slip to the 3 or 4 seed.

Basically, it seems Georgia AND Alabama are in the playoffs.

Michigan and Cincinnati pretty much control their own destinies but of course with any more upsets things can get very interesting. Notre Dame and Ohio State will still very much be in the mix, and so will Oklahoma State if they win tonight.

I do feel a bit for Cincy. If they stay undefeated they should get in for sure, but you never know with this Committee. I fear they could make some BS case to try and sneak in another team over Cincy if it comes to it even if Cincy wins out.

[Phantom255x]

New Rankings Out:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati
5. Oklahoma State
6. Notre Dame

I actually think they got it right.

The one thing that'd be interesting to see though, lets say Alabama loses to Georgia and Michigan, Cincy and Oklahoma State all win. Then does Alabama still get in as a 3-4 seed or are they left out. Because honestly it'd be a bit absurd to me if they just keep Cincinnati or Oklahoma State out for a 2-loss Alabama team (even with the opponent being #1 Georgia) in that instance, especially considering Oklahoma State and Cincy would have had some big wins over recent weeks in this scenario.

[Moranis]

As a Cincinnati (and Ohio State) fan, I'm rooting for total chaos.

So my ideal weekend.

Cincinnati beats Houston easily (duh)
Georgia destroys Alabama
Baylor beats Oklahoma State closely
Iowa beats Michigan
Utah beats Oregon

Final Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Cincinnati
3. Notre Dame
4. Iowa or Baylor

Now that would be a crazy playoff especially if Fickell leaves for Notre Dame.  You'd have the first 2 loss team (Iowa or Baylor).  You'd have the first non-power 5 team (Cincinnati) whose coach may leave for Notre Dame and then would be coaching a team for the first time ever against the team he coached all season and who beat his current team during the season.  And then of course Georgia who would seemingly steamroll its way to its first national title in decades.

[tazzmaniac]

New Rankings Out:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Cincinnati
5. Oklahoma State
6. Notre Dame

I actually think they got it right.

The one thing that'd be interesting to see though, lets say Alabama loses to Georgia and Michigan, Cincy and Oklahoma State all win. Then does Alabama still get in as a 3-4 seed or are they left out. Because honestly it'd be a bit absurd to me if they just keep Cincinnati or Oklahoma State out for a 2-loss Alabama team (even with the opponent being #1 Georgia) in that instance, especially considering Oklahoma State and Cincy would have had some big wins over recent weeks in this scenario.

I'm a Bama fan and I don't think a 2-loss Bama gets in unless there is chaos.  The committee was not generous at all with the 2-loss 2019 Bama team that had really close losses to #1 team LSU and a pretty good 3-loss Auburn team.

[tazzmaniac]

As a Cincinnati (and Ohio State) fan, I'm rooting for total chaos.

So my ideal weekend.

Cincinnati beats Houston easily (duh)
Georgia destroys Alabama
Baylor beats Oklahoma State closely
Iowa beats Michigan
Utah beats Oregon

Final Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Cincinnati
3. Notre Dame
4. Iowa or Baylor

Now that would be a crazy playoff especially if Fickell leaves for Notre Dame.  You'd have the first 2 loss team (Iowa or Baylor).  You'd have the first non-power 5 team (Cincinnati) whose coach may leave for Notre Dame and then would be coaching a team for the first time ever against the team he coached all season and who beat his current team during the season.  And then of course Georgia who would seemingly steamroll its way to its first national title in decades.

That's not total chaos.  Cincy would have to lose for total chaos.  Also, Oregon beating Utah would be better for chaos.  No way does Utah have a chance at the playoffs but a 2-loss Oregon would have an argument.