21-22 College Football Thread

[Roy H.]

Oklahoma State is down 21-3.

Assuming Bama loses and Michigan and Cincy win, does that put ND in the playoff?  Or does a two loss Bama or OSU make it?

[Celtics2021]

Oklahoma State is down 21-3.

Assuming Bama loses and Michigan and Cincy win, does that put ND in the playoff?  Or does a two loss Bama or OSU make it?

With a big enough blowout, does Baylor edge their way in?

[Roy H.]

Oklahoma State is down 21-3.

Assuming Bama loses and Michigan and Cincy win, does that put ND in the playoff?  Or does a two loss Bama or OSU make it?

With a big enough blowout, does Baylor edge their way in?

Watching this game, I’m asking myself how Baylor lost two games.  But, weirdly, they played a lot of close games against bad teams, and lost to TCU and OK State.

[Celtics2021]

Oklahoma State is down 21-3.

Assuming Bama loses and Michigan and Cincy win, does that put ND in the playoff?  Or does a two loss Bama or OSU make it?

With a big enough blowout, does Baylor edge their way in?

Watching this game, I’m asking myself how Baylor lost two games.

Losing to OK State on the road isn’t crazy.  Play enough games against good opponents and that will happen sometimes.  The TCU loss tho is rougher — I think they got unlucky in that the TCU coach had just retired that week and they got a very emotional opponent playing their best game of the year.

To be clear, I don’t think Baylor has enough to jump all the way to #4 over Bama, ND, and OSU, but it’ll be a tough call for the committee.  The loss to TCU is bad, but they also have a non-conference win over #12 BYU, on top of wins against OK St and Oklahoma.  That’d be a 3-1 record against top-15 teams, which is more than ND, OSU, or Bama could say.  (In fact, Baylor would have more top-15 wins than those three combined).

I will say I think a Baylor win is good for Michigan.  It’s not impossible they could get in as the #4 team with a close loss if OK St drops from #5.

[tazzmaniac]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.   

[celticsclay]

Baylor coach making some really awful decisions this quarter. Some of the worst I have ever seen.

[celticsclay]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.

Agree 100% especially given OK State had not been able to move the ball all game. Even if you don't believe in momentum there is just some basic math involved there.

[Celtics2021]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.

Agree 100% especially given OK State had not been able to move the ball all game. Even if you don't believe in momentum there is just some basic math involved there.

Yeah, OK State is in the title game because of its defense, not offense.  Looks like Baylor will probably hold them off, but that had the potential to be the turning point.

[celticsclay]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.

Agree 100% especially given OK State had not been able to move the ball all game. Even if you don't believe in momentum there is just some basic math involved there.

Yeah, OK State is in the title game because of its defense, not offense.  Looks like Baylor will probably hold them off, but that had the potential to be the turning point.

Whoa feels like you are calling this early. Definitely still an underdog but this game is not decided.

[Celtics2021]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.

Agree 100% especially given OK State had not been able to move the ball all game. Even if you don't believe in momentum there is just some basic math involved there.

Yeah, OK State is in the title game because of its defense, not offense.  Looks like Baylor will probably hold them off, but that had the potential to be the turning point.

Whoa feels like you are calling this early. Definitely still an underdog but this game is not decided.

I'm pretty comfortable with that call.  Once OK State felt compelled to kick the field goal from the 3, it was over.

[Celtics2021]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.

Agree 100% especially given OK State had not been able to move the ball all game. Even if you don't believe in momentum there is just some basic math involved there.

Yeah, OK State is in the title game because of its defense, not offense.  Looks like Baylor will probably hold them off, but that had the potential to be the turning point.

Whoa feels like you are calling this early. Definitely still an underdog but this game is not decided.

I'm pretty comfortable with that call.  Once OK State felt compelled to kick the field goal from the 3, it was over.

Okay, that was admittedly closer than I thought, but OK State had seven plays from inside the 5 in the 4th quarter and couldn't get into the end zone.

Also, I don't think Baylor showed that they are deserving of jumping all the way to #4, no matter the rest of the results today.

[celticsclay]

Well that was a really stupid decision by Aranda to go for it on 4th down on their own 36.  Don't care what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 1.  There was very little reward for going for it and a huge risk.

Agree 100% especially given OK State had not been able to move the ball all game. Even if you don't believe in momentum there is just some basic math involved there.

Yeah, OK State is in the title game because of its defense, not offense.  Looks like Baylor will probably hold them off, but that had the potential to be the turning point.

Whoa feels like you are calling this early. Definitely still an underdog but this game is not decided.

I'm pretty comfortable with that call.  Once OK State felt compelled to kick the field goal from the 3, it was over.

Okay, that was admittedly closer than I thought, but OK State had seven plays from inside the 5 in the 4th quarter and couldn't get into the end zone.

Also, I don't think Baylor showed that they are deserving of jumping all the way to #4, no matter the rest of the results today.

Haha. I was hoping you were going to say "never in doubt." TP

[tazzmaniac]

Cincy should be in if they win now.   If they lose, it is going to get interesting. 

[Celtics2021]

I expect Michigan to win today, but I think if they lose by 1 score they'll still be the #4 at worst, even if Bama and Cinci both win.  Baylor isn't going to jump them from #9 after that second half.  The committee isn't going to drop them below Ohio State after last week's win against the Buckeyes.  So then it's between Michigan and Notre Dame for #4.  Do you reward Notre Dame for refusing to be in a conference and thus not losing a game they don't play, especially given Notre Dame has played only 1 game against a team currently ranked in the CFP Top 25, which they lost?  I don't think you do.

A 2-score loss I think ND jumps in this scenario, but if Michigan loses a game that could have gone either way, I think they're in.

[tazzmaniac]

I expect Michigan to win today, but I think if they lose by 1 score they'll still be the #4 at worst, even if Bama and Cinci both win.  Baylor isn't going to jump them from #9 after that second half.  The committee isn't going to drop them below Ohio State after last week's win against the Buckeyes.  So then it's between Michigan and Notre Dame for #4.  Do you reward Notre Dame for refusing to be in a conference and thus not losing a game they don't play, especially given Notre Dame has played only 1 game against a team currently ranked in the CFP Top 25, which they lost?  I don't think you do.

A 2-score loss I think ND jumps in this scenario, but if Michigan loses a game that could have gone either way, I think they're in.

The problem is Iowa is not that good.  If Michigan loses to them, it is going to be an ugly game where Michigan has several turnovers.