Shouldn't we give Marcus Smart the chance to emerge as another Jrue Holiday?

[Celtics2021]

Jrue Holiday, who was an All-Star at 22 and averaged 18/7/4 with All-Defensive level defence during his New Orleans stint? Smart has no chance of being that kind of player.

Holiday's lowest FG% for a season was 43% early in his career, which is higher than Smart's highest FG%. The disparity in scoring talent is huge

Surprised you’re going for FG% as your stat of choice.  TS% showed Holiday with a .513 through his first 7 seasons compared to Smart’s .506.  Smart’s .539 mark this season (which was not a career best), is greater than Holiday’s .534 career average, and higher than anything Jrue put up in his first 8 years.  And I’m really confused about the All-Defense touting, because it’s not as if Marcus hasn’t earned that honor twice himself.

I’m not saying Smart has been as good as Jrue — he hasn’t.  But it’s also the case that Holiday has taken a significant step forward in the last 4 seasons, beginning at age 27, to create greater separation between the two, especially as an efficient scorer.

[KG Living Legend]

 Holiday is just so much more athletic and quicker than Smart. I'd love to see the jump from Marcus, just wouldn't bet on it.

[Roy H.]

Jrue Holiday, who was an All-Star at 22 and averaged 18/7/4 with All-Defensive level defence during his New Orleans stint? Smart has no chance of being that kind of player.

Holiday's lowest FG% for a season was 43% early in his career, which is higher than Smart's highest FG%. The disparity in scoring talent is huge

Surprised you’re going for FG% as your stat of choice.  TS% showed Holiday with a .513 through his first 7 seasons compared to Smart’s .506.  Smart’s .539 mark this season (which was not a career best), is greater than Holiday’s .534 career average, and higher than anything Jrue put up in his first 8 years.  And I’m really confused about the All-Defense touting, because it’s not as if Marcus hasn’t earned that honor twice himself.

I’m not saying Smart has been as good as Jrue — he hasn’t.  But it’s also the case that Holiday has taken a significant step forward in the last 4 seasons, beginning at age 27, to create greater separation between the two, especially as an efficient scorer.

At the same time, we also have to account for the fact that most of Smart's shots come as a 4th or 5th option, whereas Jrue has traditionally been a 2nd option.  Smart has gotten way more open looks over the years, I would assume.

[SHAQATTACK]

Marcus should not be used in a lineup where he must shoot ,   I like him as a point and never a shooting guard ,  shooting causes him to forget his defense and passing . 

He should be inserted in spurts to disrupt the flow of the other team .  I kind of special role player .  , without a green light to shoot the long shot

[Moranis]

Jrue Holiday, who was an All-Star at 22 and averaged 18/7/4 with All-Defensive level defence during his New Orleans stint? Smart has no chance of being that kind of player.

Holiday's lowest FG% for a season was 43% early in his career, which is higher than Smart's highest FG%. The disparity in scoring talent is huge

Surprised you’re going for FG% as your stat of choice.  TS% showed Holiday with a .513 through his first 7 seasons compared to Smart’s .506.  Smart’s .539 mark this season (which was not a career best), is greater than Holiday’s .534 career average, and higher than anything Jrue put up in his first 8 years.  And I’m really confused about the All-Defense touting, because it’s not as if Marcus hasn’t earned that honor twice himself.

I’m not saying Smart has been as good as Jrue — he hasn’t.  But it’s also the case that Holiday has taken a significant step forward in the last 4 seasons, beginning at age 27, to create greater separation between the two, especially as an efficient scorer.

A lot of that closeness is because of the shear volume of 2 point attempts Holiday took.  Their eFG% through 7 years are 48.1 for Holiday and 46.0 for Smart.  Smart has taken more 3's than 2's in his career 4.7 to 4.3, where as Holiday is about 3 to 10, so more than 3 times as many 2's.  Frankly, that is the real big difference between them.  Holiday, despite being a better shooter, has the basic understanding that there are better shooters than him and that those guys should be taking those shots.  Smart has never grasped that concept.  Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot.

[Roy H.]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

There's a new sheriff in town. Ime will be able to convey messages much clearer than dorky Brad.

i'm definitely biased, but I haven't minded Smart's proclivity to shoot overall. I do care that he misses awkwardly timed 3's at the end of a game. I also love when he hits them.

Marcus isn't a great shooter, but he has improved in his NBA career. It's important for him to be able to shoot to be on the floor, so his experience has served him well. Going forward, I'd like to see better decision-making, and I think Ime will demand that respect (esp. if Tatum and Brown are on board with our new coach).

I'm psyched about Smart's prospects going forward. I do think he took a step back defensively last year, and this should be corrected. I'd let him serve as our point guard at the beginning of the year, and have a plan B in case he turns the ball over 10 time a game.

Also, can we hire Allen Iverson or some other bada$$ as a consultant to teach my guy Smart how to dribble? Smart's presence at the end of a game is worthy of any outside of the box ideas.

[BruceBanner18]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

Disclaimer: I'm no analytics genius so maybe I'm simplifying but Smart shot 43.6% on shots taken within a foot of the 3 pt line. When he was outside 25 ft he shot 28.8%. And he took 72% of his 3s from over 25 ft

Maybe he's more wide open when he's able to step to the line?

Either way, hopefully he's coached to take less deep 3s

[gouki88]

Jrue Holiday, who was an All-Star at 22 and averaged 18/7/4 with All-Defensive level defence during his New Orleans stint? Smart has no chance of being that kind of player.

Holiday's lowest FG% for a season was 43% early in his career, which is higher than Smart's highest FG%. The disparity in scoring talent is huge

Surprised you’re going for FG% as your stat of choice.  TS% showed Holiday with a .513 through his first 7 seasons compared to Smart’s .506.  Smart’s .539 mark this season (which was not a career best), is greater than Holiday’s .534 career average, and higher than anything Jrue put up in his first 8 years.  And I’m really confused about the All-Defense touting, because it’s not as if Marcus hasn’t earned that honor twice himself.

I’m not saying Smart has been as good as Jrue — he hasn’t.  But it’s also the case that Holiday has taken a significant step forward in the last 4 seasons, beginning at age 27, to create greater separation between the two, especially as an efficient scorer.

It was more to highlight the difference in their ability to score within the arc at the same age. I prefer EFG% to true shooting for discussions like these because I don't think either of them generate enough free throws for it to be worth calculating.

Holiday's EFG% up to age 25 was 2.5% higher than Smart's career average to date. Holiday has since jumped to an EFG of 53.6% over the last four years, peaking this year at 57%. He has made leaps, but I never thought Holiday's low shooting percentages were due to brain failure like it is with Smart.

[Celtics4ever]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203935/shots-dash/

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/marcus-smart-shot-chart-this-season-by-zone

[Moranis]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

Who says Tatum or Brown will actually take that shot though.  Excluding the 2 non-shooting centers (TT, RW), Smart was by far the worst 3 point shooter of the rotation.  Injury riddled Walker was closest to him and he was 3% better.  I don't care if Smart is on fire, he still shouldn't be shooting.  Except in very rare circumstances, any 3 point shot Smart takes is quite simply a bad shot.

[pearljammer10]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

It's actually funny. Smart's shooting percentages from the field get worse the more open he is:

Smart shot 46% with a defender "very tight"/0-2 feet distance.

Shot 44% with 2-4 feet distance.

Shot 36% when "open" at 4-6 feet.

And Shot 38.9% when "wide open" with 6+ feet of distance.

Tatum shot 51% when guarded "very tight"/0-2 feet and 62% when wide open.

While Brown 52% when guard 2-4 feet and 48% when wide open.


Morale of the story, if Smart is our PG hopefully the shots he takes (which I consider 95% of them bad) go to Brown and Tatum among others and he sticks to facilitating and finishing in the paint.

[gouki88]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

It's actually funny. Smart's shooting percentages from the field get worse the more open he is:

Smart shot 46% with a defender "very tight"/0-2 feet distance.

Shot 44% with 2-4 feet distance.

Shot 36% when "open" at 4-6 feet.

And Shot 38.9% when "wide open" with 6+ feet of distance.

Tatum shot 51% when guarded "very tight"/0-2 feet and 62% when wide open.

While Brown 52% when guard 2-4 feet and 48% when wide open.


Morale of the story, if Smart is our PG hopefully the shots he takes (which I consider 95% of them bad) go to Brown and Tatum among others and he sticks to facilitating and finishing in the paint.

He's a 37.4% three point shooter when wide open. This drops by 7% when he is merely 'open'. Very very strange player

[Celtics2021]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203935/shots-dash/

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/marcus-smart-shot-chart-this-season-by-zone

Marcus is a fine shooter from 3 if the shots come within the flow of the halfcourt offense.  He’s roughly a 38% shooter when shots occur with between 4 and 15 seconds left on the shot clock.  When he jacks them up early, he’s under 30%, and when they’re desperation shots at the end he’s at 16%.  I’m not going to fault him for the desperation shots, but I will for the early jacks.  He only takes 1.6 of those a game (compared with 4.2 of the ones that come later) so it isn’t a huge amount, but it’s enough to pull down his numbers significantly.

Of course, there’s some noise in these numbers, as once you break them down into smaller sample sizes the variance grows.  In prior years, Smart was about as good during “early” shot clock situations (15-18 seconds left) as he was the 4-15 second range.  But he’s always been awful at the very early shots (more than 18 seconds left), so perhaps our new coach can get him out of the habit of taking those momentum killers.  I don’t believe that every Smart 3 is a bad one, but I do believe that every quick Smart 3 is a bad one, because there’s always another option that’s better.

[gouki88]

Basically, any 3 that Marcus Smart takes is a bad shot

This is something I’d love to see analytics on.  For instance, is Marcus a better option to shoot when wide open (nobody within 6 feet) than Tatum / Brown with a defender within two feet?

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203935/shots-dash/

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/marcus-smart-shot-chart-this-season-by-zone

Marcus is a fine shooter from 3 if the shots come within the flow of the halfcourt offense.  He’s roughly a 38% shooter when shots occur with between 4 and 15 seconds left on the shot clock.  When he jacks them up early, he’s under 30%, and when they’re desperation shots at the end he’s at 16%.  I’m not going to fault him for the desperation shots, but I will for the early jacks.  He only takes 1.6 of those a game (compared with 4.2 of the ones that come later) so it isn’t a huge amount, but it’s enough to pull down his numbers significantly.

Of course, there’s some noise in these numbers, as once you break them down into smaller sample sizes the variance grows.  In prior years, Smart was about as good during “early” shot clock situations (15-18 seconds left) as he was the 4-15 second range.  But he’s always been awful at the very early shots (more than 18 seconds left), so perhaps our new coach can get him out of the habit of taking those momentum killers.  I don’t believe that every Smart 3 is a bad one, but I do believe that every quick Smart 3 is a bad one, because there’s always another option that’s better.

Yeah, those 15% of his threes that he takes in the first 9 seconds are the ones that really get the hair-pulling going.