I don't think Dinwiddie is a great fit for the Cs, but I do think he gets a good offer from the Knicks.
The team I'm monitoring is the Jazz. They are already up against the tax without signing Conley. I don't see a really clear path for us to get Conley without a sign-and-trade that involved a third team, which seems pretty unlikely. But the other possibility is that the Jazz look to trade Ingles, O'neal, and/or Niang in order to be able to resign Conley. I think all three could be really good options for the Cs.
I think we could, for instance, trade Thompson to a third team with cap space and/or a trade exception, and then get back Ingles and take O'neal into a trade exception.
That would free up enough space for the Jazz to resign Conley for up to something like 18m without going into the luxury tax (Dragic seems like an apt comparison for his play and projected value). It would also get the Jazz the trade exception for O'neal. They'd have Conley-Mitchell-Bogdonavic-Gobert as their core. Maybe they'd want Langford or Rob Williams instead, but then I think we are talking about a different structure.
I'm a little unclear on if a player taken into a trade exception counts toward your luxury tax. A deal like this mostly makes sense if Fournier decides to sign elsewhere. If we resign him, then we would be deep into the luxury tax even if we unloaded Grant Williams and/or Carson Edwards and filled the roster with a few second round picks. But the starters would be something like Smart-Brown-Tatum-Ingles-Horford with Fournier-Williams-O'neal-Pritchard-Williams-Parker off the bench. That's really good depth with some high level shooters/passers around Tatum/Brown.
Another option I'm monitoring with this team is them trading Gobert. The Cs could put together an offer include Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Tristan Thompson and/or a young guy like Langford. The Jazz may not have as much regular season success, but I think they'd be built better for the playoffs with Williams (if healthy), Smart, and Langford. Problem is that Horford doesn't fit next to Gobert very well -- we saw how that played out with Horford and Embiid.
Anyway, those are my initial half-baked ideas. The Jazz clearly have some big decisions to make this off-season and I like a lot of their players as fits around the Js. I'd love to get Ingles or O'neal. Obviously I'm interested in Gobert as well, but I'm a bit concerned about his play in the playoffs when teams go small.