Grading Danny's deadline-day moves

[Muzzy66]

A big fat F, with F standing for FIRE instead of FAIL.

Fournier is the ultimate regular season fraud. I've went into his qualitative shortcomings against strong playoff defences even as a 3rd or 4th option in the Fournier thread, so here is some quantitative analysis of his play against playoff defences:

Per game averages in his last two playoff series (10 games)
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 34.9/29.0/72.0 shooting, 46.0% TS.

The sample size isn't perfect, but I've watched most games in both series and Fournier doesn't look any different physically - the low hanging fruit that he grabs in the regular season simply got taken away by elite defences in the playoffs with just increased intensity from his man. And it wasn't like the Bucks or Raptors keyed in on him with their best defenders - Fournier was relegated to being the 3rd or 4th option in those two playoff series, so the Raptors rotated whichever of Green/Kawhi/Lowry/Siakam who was free on him while the Bucks used defensive legend Wesley Matthews to shut him down.

In fairness, Fournier has been a natural #3/#4 banana who has been acting as #2 scorer out of necessity on a pretty poor Orlando squad.  Teams could throw the majority of their defensive attention at Vucevic and Fournier because lets be honest - nobody else on that team is really much of a threat. 

I think he's be far more effective in Boston, where he should see a ton of open looks with all the attention that Tatum, Brown and Kemba draw.  I expect his scoring to naturally go down, but I also expect his percentages to go up because he should be seeing far more good looks.

Given that Smart (of all people) has averaged 12 PPG the past two seasons, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Fournier could put up somewhere around 15 PPG on around 48% / 40% / 80% shooting.  If he can put up numbers in that ballpark, then I think he will have a pretty major impact on the win column. 

Think about this. When teams try double Tatum, Brown or Kemba the guy they'll be leaving will now be Fournier, not Smart.  Likewise at the end of close games when Boston has the ball, teams are going to need to cover four potential scoring threats instead of three.  This will be similar to what we had last year with Kemba/Hayward/Brown/Tatum except that Tatum and Brown are both drawing FAR more defensive attentin now then they were a year ago.   I think it's going to make the team much more difficult to guard.

And on top of that, it also allows us to move Smart to the 6th man role, which helps depth a low (and I think is the best fit for him).  Assuming TT starts, then having Pritchard, Smart, Ojeleye, R-Will, Wagner in positions 6-10 is actually...kind of respectable.

Another factor some people may not consider is that this provides nice insurance for Kemba's knee.  When he sits out Smart can fill in as starting PG, and the team should see minimal drop-off for it.  This should help to make the team a lot more consistent.

[Somebody]

A big fat F, with F standing for FIRE instead of FAIL.

Fournier is the ultimate regular season fraud. I've went into his qualitative shortcomings against strong playoff defences even as a 3rd or 4th option in the Fournier thread, so here is some quantitative analysis of his play against playoff defences:

Per game averages in his last two playoff series (10 games)
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 34.9/29.0/72.0 shooting, 46.0% TS.

The sample size isn't perfect, but I've watched most games in both series and Fournier doesn't look any different physically - the low hanging fruit that he grabs in the regular season simply got taken away by elite defences in the playoffs with just increased intensity from his man. And it wasn't like the Bucks or Raptors keyed in on him with their best defenders - Fournier was relegated to being the 3rd or 4th option in those two playoff series, so the Raptors rotated whichever of Green/Kawhi/Lowry/Siakam who was free on him while the Bucks used defensive legend Wesley Matthews to shut him down.

In fairness, Fournier has been a natural #3/#4 banana who has been acting as #2 scorer out of necessity on a pretty poor Orlando squad.  Teams could throw the majority of their defensive attention at Vucevic and Fournier because lets be honest - nobody else on that team is really much of a threat. 

I think he's be far more effective in Boston, where he should see a ton of open looks with all the attention that Tatum, Brown and Kemba draw.  I expect his scoring to naturally go down, but I also expect his percentages to go up because he should be seeing far more good looks.

Given that Smart (of all people) has averaged 12 PPG the past two seasons, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Fournier could put up somewhere around 15 PPG on around 48% / 40% / 80% shooting.  If he can put up numbers in that ballpark, then I think he will have a pretty major impact on the win column. 

Think about this. When teams try double Tatum, Brown or Kemba the guy they'll be leaving will now be Fournier, not Smart.  Likewise at the end of close games when Boston has the ball, teams are going to need to cover four potential scoring threats instead of three.  This will be similar to what we had last year with Kemba/Hayward/Brown/Tatum except that Tatum and Brown are both drawing FAR more defensive attentin now then they were a year ago.   I think it's going to make the team much more difficult to guard.

And on top of that, it also allows us to move Smart to the 6th man role, which helps depth a low (and I think is the best fit for him).  Assuming TT starts, then having Pritchard, Smart, Ojeleye, R-Will, Wagner in positions 6-10 is actually...kind of respectable.

Another factor some people may not consider is that this provides nice insurance for Kemba's knee.  When he sits out Smart can fill in as starting PG, and the team should see minimal drop-off for it.  This should help to make the team a lot more consistent.

But my post explicitly stated that Fournier wasn't the second option for Orlando in the playoffs? Orlando played him like a 3rd and 4th option and while Ross/Gordon/Augustin don't have the gravity that two of Brown/Tatum/Kemba do, Fournier still sucked and was the most effective as a spot up shooter who can make the extra pass and do something if defenders try to run him off the three point line on closeouts. This is a far cry from what you lot are thinking that he can be - he's going to be a really nice catch and shoot guy with some skills that make him a bit dynamic off the catch, but a lot of his on-ball skills are going to be stifled in the playoffs.

I'd say the numbers you projected for him are perfectly achievable in the regular season, but I'm expecting something more like 13/4/2 in the playoffs on roughly 45%/38%/78% shooting - which is still a massive upgrade over our bench wings but he'll be more of a good role player than a guy who gives us that extra bite in the playoffs that people on this forum like to believe. Adding a guy like Otto Porter Jr via the buyout market would change the equation entirely though (synergistic effect of having multiple shooters who can make the extra pass and attack aggressive closeouts), and atm we have a pretty good squad.

[NKY fan]

Things change constantly in the nba but one thing is always constant. You can’t convince a Danny Ainge to trade away a first round pick for a player .. it’s amazing how more and more teams that are not contenders trade their 1rd picks for good players but Danny wouldn’t

[GreenEnvy]

Meh to it all.

I like Fournier, but was hoping for something better with the TPE.

Trading away Theis for basically nothing was disappointing too.

I just don’t see a path anymore to make this team significantly better in the next few seasons.

[Celtics2021]

A big fat F, with F standing for FIRE instead of FAIL.

Fournier is the ultimate regular season fraud. I've went into his qualitative shortcomings against strong playoff defences even as a 3rd or 4th option in the Fournier thread, so here is some quantitative analysis of his play against playoff defences:

Per game averages in his last two playoff series (10 games)
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 34.9/29.0/72.0 shooting, 46.0% TS.

The sample size isn't perfect, but I've watched most games in both series and Fournier doesn't look any different physically - the low hanging fruit that he grabs in the regular season simply got taken away by elite defences in the playoffs with just increased intensity from his man. And it wasn't like the Bucks or Raptors keyed in on him with their best defenders - Fournier was relegated to being the 3rd or 4th option in those two playoff series, so the Raptors rotated whichever of Green/Kawhi/Lowry/Siakam who was free on him while the Bucks used defensive legend Wesley Matthews to shut him down.

In fairness, Fournier has been a natural #3/#4 banana who has been acting as #2 scorer out of necessity on a pretty poor Orlando squad.  Teams could throw the majority of their defensive attention at Vucevic and Fournier because lets be honest - nobody else on that team is really much of a threat. 

I think he's be far more effective in Boston, where he should see a ton of open looks with all the attention that Tatum, Brown and Kemba draw.  I expect his scoring to naturally go down, but I also expect his percentages to go up because he should be seeing far more good looks.

Given that Smart (of all people) has averaged 12 PPG the past two seasons, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Fournier could put up somewhere around 15 PPG on around 48% / 40% / 80% shooting.  If he can put up numbers in that ballpark, then I think he will have a pretty major impact on the win column. 

Think about this. When teams try double Tatum, Brown or Kemba the guy they'll be leaving will now be Fournier, not Smart.  Likewise at the end of close games when Boston has the ball, teams are going to need to cover four potential scoring threats instead of three.  This will be similar to what we had last year with Kemba/Hayward/Brown/Tatum except that Tatum and Brown are both drawing FAR more defensive attentin now then they were a year ago.   I think it's going to make the team much more difficult to guard.

And on top of that, it also allows us to move Smart to the 6th man role, which helps depth a low (and I think is the best fit for him).  Assuming TT starts, then having Pritchard, Smart, Ojeleye, R-Will, Wagner in positions 6-10 is actually...kind of respectable.

Another factor some people may not consider is that this provides nice insurance for Kemba's knee.  When he sits out Smart can fill in as starting PG, and the team should see minimal drop-off for it.  This should help to make the team a lot more consistent.

But my post explicitly stated that Fournier wasn't the second option for Orlando in the playoffs? Orlando played him like a 3rd and 4th option and while Ross/Gordon/Augustin don't have the gravity that two of Brown/Tatum/Kemba do, Fournier still sucked and was the most effective as a spot up shooter who can make the extra pass and do something if defenders try to run him off the three point line on closeouts. This is a far cry from what you lot are thinking that he can be - he's going to be a really nice catch and shoot guy with some skills that make him a bit dynamic off the catch, but a lot of his on-ball skills are going to be stifled in the playoffs.

I'd say the numbers you projected for him are perfectly achievable in the regular season, but I'm expecting something more like 13/4/2 in the playoffs on roughly 45%/38%/78% shooting - which is still a massive upgrade over our bench wings but he'll be more of a good role player than a guy who gives us that extra bite in the playoffs that people on this forum like to believe. Adding a guy like Otto Porter Jr via the buyout market would change the equation entirely though (synergistic effect of having multiple shooters who can make the extra pass and attack aggressive closeouts), and atm we have a pretty good squad.

I get your criticism, but part of it seems to be that Wes Matthews was a bad defender last playoffs, or something like that, and Fournier failed against him?  And it’s true, Fournier did fail against Matthews, scoring 21 points in 123 possessions over 32 minutes in which his primary defender was Matthews (by far the person who was on him the most), while the Magic scored 164 points. But in the next series, Matthews was Jimmy Butler’s primary defender, for 125 possessions over 36 minutes, and Butler scored 25 points while the Heat scored 169.  A few more assists and slightly more efficient shooting, but nothing great.

In other words, vs. Miami the Bucks put Wes Matthews against Miami’s best player, and he was shut down almost as much.  This implies that the Bucks treated Matthews as their best wing defender.

The year before, his primary defender was Kyle Lowry, who’s defensive reputation I hope you won’t argue against.

In other words, opposing defenses treated him like a #1/#2 option in the playoffs based on their matchups.  He’s not going to draw a team’s best, or even second-best, or probably even third-best, wing defender on the Celtics.  If he starts, he’s going to be treated like a #4 option for real, and not just look like a #4 option because an opponent focused on him sufficiently enough to neutralize him.  And if he doesn’t start, he’s probably going to see some very favorable matchups against bench players.

Fournier was the guy the Bucks and the Raptors both circled and said “Don’t let him beat us”, which was a compliment to his abilities.  The ding against Fournier is that he didn’t rise above the challenge. On the Celtics, he’s not going to be the guy they circle, and he’ll hopefully have a challenge that he is more able to overcome.

[CelticsWhat35]

Delete - saw my question in another thread

[PAOBoston]

This may have been mentioned somewhere already, but how much room do they have now for buyout candidates and still avoid the repeater tax?

Assuming they waive Kornet, I believe they can offer a minimum deal and barely stay under.

[celts55]

I gave it a c, like let’s see what happens.

I like they got a scorer off the bench finally. If they can resign him, goes up to B.

I like they freed up playing time for the young guys.

I don’t like they didn’t get Gordon. Think he would be perfect fit.

I didn’t like that they didn’t trade Smart. I think he needs to move on. I’m tired of his awful shot selection, and watching him yelling at his teammates. In my opinion, he’s an over rated on ball defender. When is the last time he shut anyone down. He makes some great plays, off the ball, but cost them more games than wins.

Might take until next season, so I’ll wait and see.

[Moranis]

A big fat F, with F standing for FIRE instead of FAIL.

Fournier is the ultimate regular season fraud. I've went into his qualitative shortcomings against strong playoff defences even as a 3rd or 4th option in the Fournier thread, so here is some quantitative analysis of his play against playoff defences:

Per game averages in his last two playoff series (10 games)
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 34.9/29.0/72.0 shooting, 46.0% TS.

The sample size isn't perfect, but I've watched most games in both series and Fournier doesn't look any different physically - the low hanging fruit that he grabs in the regular season simply got taken away by elite defences in the playoffs with just increased intensity from his man. And it wasn't like the Bucks or Raptors keyed in on him with their best defenders - Fournier was relegated to being the 3rd or 4th option in those two playoff series, so the Raptors rotated whichever of Green/Kawhi/Lowry/Siakam who was free on him while the Bucks used defensive legend Wesley Matthews to shut him down.

In fairness, Fournier has been a natural #3/#4 banana who has been acting as #2 scorer out of necessity on a pretty poor Orlando squad.  Teams could throw the majority of their defensive attention at Vucevic and Fournier because lets be honest - nobody else on that team is really much of a threat. 

I think he's be far more effective in Boston, where he should see a ton of open looks with all the attention that Tatum, Brown and Kemba draw.  I expect his scoring to naturally go down, but I also expect his percentages to go up because he should be seeing far more good looks.

Given that Smart (of all people) has averaged 12 PPG the past two seasons, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Fournier could put up somewhere around 15 PPG on around 48% / 40% / 80% shooting.  If he can put up numbers in that ballpark, then I think he will have a pretty major impact on the win column. 

Think about this. When teams try double Tatum, Brown or Kemba the guy they'll be leaving will now be Fournier, not Smart.  Likewise at the end of close games when Boston has the ball, teams are going to need to cover four potential scoring threats instead of three.  This will be similar to what we had last year with Kemba/Hayward/Brown/Tatum except that Tatum and Brown are both drawing FAR more defensive attentin now then they were a year ago.   I think it's going to make the team much more difficult to guard.

And on top of that, it also allows us to move Smart to the 6th man role, which helps depth a low (and I think is the best fit for him).  Assuming TT starts, then having Pritchard, Smart, Ojeleye, R-Will, Wagner in positions 6-10 is actually...kind of respectable.

Another factor some people may not consider is that this provides nice insurance for Kemba's knee.  When he sits out Smart can fill in as starting PG, and the team should see minimal drop-off for it.  This should help to make the team a lot more consistent.

But my post explicitly stated that Fournier wasn't the second option for Orlando in the playoffs? Orlando played him like a 3rd and 4th option and while Ross/Gordon/Augustin don't have the gravity that two of Brown/Tatum/Kemba do, Fournier still sucked and was the most effective as a spot up shooter who can make the extra pass and do something if defenders try to run him off the three point line on closeouts. This is a far cry from what you lot are thinking that he can be - he's going to be a really nice catch and shoot guy with some skills that make him a bit dynamic off the catch, but a lot of his on-ball skills are going to be stifled in the playoffs.

I'd say the numbers you projected for him are perfectly achievable in the regular season, but I'm expecting something more like 13/4/2 in the playoffs on roughly 45%/38%/78% shooting - which is still a massive upgrade over our bench wings but he'll be more of a good role player than a guy who gives us that extra bite in the playoffs that people on this forum like to believe. Adding a guy like Otto Porter Jr via the buyout market would change the equation entirely though (synergistic effect of having multiple shooters who can make the extra pass and attack aggressive closeouts), and atm we have a pretty good squad.

This is the point I've been trying to make and when you and I agree on something, it must be true. Ha.

Fournier is not elite at anything and in fact is below average at best at basically everything except shooting.  You don't pay 17 million, give up the TPE, and be forced to dump Theis to acquire someone like him.  Fournier just isn't good enough.  It was a bad trade. 

And to your point, the one time the Magic have been a .500 team with Fournier, he was the 3rd/4th option and he wasn't efficient at all.  He almost needs the touches to be effective, but if he gets the touches your team isn't very good.

[Vermont Green]

Two independent trades were done but they were very related.  Theis was not traded to get Wagner, he was traded to get Fournier.  But due to the rules around the TPE, the hard cap/tax, and the fact that I don't think Orlando wanted Theis, the deal got convoluted.  I see the overall trades this way:

(1)  Fournier for Theis and a Second

(2)  Wagner and Luke Kornet for Teague and a Second

(3) TPE Use vs. Opportunity Cost

(1) is the part of the trade that has the direct impact on the current core rotation.  I feel that Fournier will be an upgrade over Theis.  Thies is a good player and losing him makes our weak bigs even weaker but Fournier is that vet wing off the bench who can score that we also desperately need.  This is the important trade of course.  I give it a B/B-, it is a win, a net gain, but only to a point.

Then you look at trading Teague for two young bigs.  I didn't expect Teague to impact the core rotation much at this point and I don't expect either of these two young bigs to impact things much either, at least not for the rest of this season.  But I would rather have two young bigs over an aging PG so I like this trade.  I give this A-/B+.  That is pretty good return for Teague, especially in the context of having to give up Theis to get Fournier.

The last part is TBD.  We gave up a significant part of the TPE for what is for now a half season rental.  If we don't extend or resign Fournier, and this ends up being only a half season rental, this to me will be a poor use of the TPE.  If we retain Fournier, then I feel it is a decent use of the TPE. (D if half season rental, B- if extended/resigned)

I am going to assume we do extend/resign Fournier and based on that give this overall deal a B.

[jambr380]

I went with B. Really hoping the plan is to re-sign Fournier or this grade could drop quite a bit. I said it before, but I actually think Fournier is a better player than Gordon. We now have 4 very capable scorers instead of 3. With injuries/substitutions, it helps our offensive line-up immensely.

I hated giving up Theis, but with no picks coming back, it seems Danny had real actual interest in Wagner as a low-cost future replacement. We as fans think this sounds crazy, but Danny has been good at finding low cost impactful players in his tenure. To make this worth it at all, we need to already have a buy-out player in mind to replace Kornet or this move made absolutely no sense.

We still have ~$11M in TPE left to use, which could be useful in the offseason - maybe not as useful as the $28.5M, but for a team looking to dump some salary, we might be able to pick up a pick or a decent player for free.

[Somebody]

A big fat F, with F standing for FIRE instead of FAIL.

Fournier is the ultimate regular season fraud. I've went into his qualitative shortcomings against strong playoff defences even as a 3rd or 4th option in the Fournier thread, so here is some quantitative analysis of his play against playoff defences:

Per game averages in his last two playoff series (10 games)
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 34.9/29.0/72.0 shooting, 46.0% TS.

The sample size isn't perfect, but I've watched most games in both series and Fournier doesn't look any different physically - the low hanging fruit that he grabs in the regular season simply got taken away by elite defences in the playoffs with just increased intensity from his man. And it wasn't like the Bucks or Raptors keyed in on him with their best defenders - Fournier was relegated to being the 3rd or 4th option in those two playoff series, so the Raptors rotated whichever of Green/Kawhi/Lowry/Siakam who was free on him while the Bucks used defensive legend Wesley Matthews to shut him down.

In fairness, Fournier has been a natural #3/#4 banana who has been acting as #2 scorer out of necessity on a pretty poor Orlando squad.  Teams could throw the majority of their defensive attention at Vucevic and Fournier because lets be honest - nobody else on that team is really much of a threat. 

I think he's be far more effective in Boston, where he should see a ton of open looks with all the attention that Tatum, Brown and Kemba draw.  I expect his scoring to naturally go down, but I also expect his percentages to go up because he should be seeing far more good looks.

Given that Smart (of all people) has averaged 12 PPG the past two seasons, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Fournier could put up somewhere around 15 PPG on around 48% / 40% / 80% shooting.  If he can put up numbers in that ballpark, then I think he will have a pretty major impact on the win column. 

Think about this. When teams try double Tatum, Brown or Kemba the guy they'll be leaving will now be Fournier, not Smart.  Likewise at the end of close games when Boston has the ball, teams are going to need to cover four potential scoring threats instead of three.  This will be similar to what we had last year with Kemba/Hayward/Brown/Tatum except that Tatum and Brown are both drawing FAR more defensive attentin now then they were a year ago.   I think it's going to make the team much more difficult to guard.

And on top of that, it also allows us to move Smart to the 6th man role, which helps depth a low (and I think is the best fit for him).  Assuming TT starts, then having Pritchard, Smart, Ojeleye, R-Will, Wagner in positions 6-10 is actually...kind of respectable.

Another factor some people may not consider is that this provides nice insurance for Kemba's knee.  When he sits out Smart can fill in as starting PG, and the team should see minimal drop-off for it.  This should help to make the team a lot more consistent.

But my post explicitly stated that Fournier wasn't the second option for Orlando in the playoffs? Orlando played him like a 3rd and 4th option and while Ross/Gordon/Augustin don't have the gravity that two of Brown/Tatum/Kemba do, Fournier still sucked and was the most effective as a spot up shooter who can make the extra pass and do something if defenders try to run him off the three point line on closeouts. This is a far cry from what you lot are thinking that he can be - he's going to be a really nice catch and shoot guy with some skills that make him a bit dynamic off the catch, but a lot of his on-ball skills are going to be stifled in the playoffs.

I'd say the numbers you projected for him are perfectly achievable in the regular season, but I'm expecting something more like 13/4/2 in the playoffs on roughly 45%/38%/78% shooting - which is still a massive upgrade over our bench wings but he'll be more of a good role player than a guy who gives us that extra bite in the playoffs that people on this forum like to believe. Adding a guy like Otto Porter Jr via the buyout market would change the equation entirely though (synergistic effect of having multiple shooters who can make the extra pass and attack aggressive closeouts), and atm we have a pretty good squad.

This is the point I've been trying to make and when you and I agree on something, it must be true. Ha.

Fournier is not elite at anything and in fact is below average at best at basically everything except shooting.  You don't pay 17 million, give up the TPE, and be forced to dump Theis to acquire someone like him.  Fournier just isn't good enough.  It was a bad trade. 

And to your point, the one time the Magic have been a .500 team with Fournier, he was the 3rd/4th option and he wasn't efficient at all. He almost needs the touches to be effective, but if he gets the touches your team isn't very good.

Lol the stars have aligned!

[Somebody]

A big fat F, with F standing for FIRE instead of FAIL.

Fournier is the ultimate regular season fraud. I've went into his qualitative shortcomings against strong playoff defences even as a 3rd or 4th option in the Fournier thread, so here is some quantitative analysis of his play against playoff defences:

Per game averages in his last two playoff series (10 games)
12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists on 34.9/29.0/72.0 shooting, 46.0% TS.

The sample size isn't perfect, but I've watched most games in both series and Fournier doesn't look any different physically - the low hanging fruit that he grabs in the regular season simply got taken away by elite defences in the playoffs with just increased intensity from his man. And it wasn't like the Bucks or Raptors keyed in on him with their best defenders - Fournier was relegated to being the 3rd or 4th option in those two playoff series, so the Raptors rotated whichever of Green/Kawhi/Lowry/Siakam who was free on him while the Bucks used defensive legend Wesley Matthews to shut him down.

In fairness, Fournier has been a natural #3/#4 banana who has been acting as #2 scorer out of necessity on a pretty poor Orlando squad.  Teams could throw the majority of their defensive attention at Vucevic and Fournier because lets be honest - nobody else on that team is really much of a threat. 

I think he's be far more effective in Boston, where he should see a ton of open looks with all the attention that Tatum, Brown and Kemba draw.  I expect his scoring to naturally go down, but I also expect his percentages to go up because he should be seeing far more good looks.

Given that Smart (of all people) has averaged 12 PPG the past two seasons, I don't think it's unreasonable to think Fournier could put up somewhere around 15 PPG on around 48% / 40% / 80% shooting.  If he can put up numbers in that ballpark, then I think he will have a pretty major impact on the win column. 

Think about this. When teams try double Tatum, Brown or Kemba the guy they'll be leaving will now be Fournier, not Smart.  Likewise at the end of close games when Boston has the ball, teams are going to need to cover four potential scoring threats instead of three.  This will be similar to what we had last year with Kemba/Hayward/Brown/Tatum except that Tatum and Brown are both drawing FAR more defensive attentin now then they were a year ago.   I think it's going to make the team much more difficult to guard.

And on top of that, it also allows us to move Smart to the 6th man role, which helps depth a low (and I think is the best fit for him).  Assuming TT starts, then having Pritchard, Smart, Ojeleye, R-Will, Wagner in positions 6-10 is actually...kind of respectable.

Another factor some people may not consider is that this provides nice insurance for Kemba's knee.  When he sits out Smart can fill in as starting PG, and the team should see minimal drop-off for it.  This should help to make the team a lot more consistent.

But my post explicitly stated that Fournier wasn't the second option for Orlando in the playoffs? Orlando played him like a 3rd and 4th option and while Ross/Gordon/Augustin don't have the gravity that two of Brown/Tatum/Kemba do, Fournier still sucked and was the most effective as a spot up shooter who can make the extra pass and do something if defenders try to run him off the three point line on closeouts. This is a far cry from what you lot are thinking that he can be - he's going to be a really nice catch and shoot guy with some skills that make him a bit dynamic off the catch, but a lot of his on-ball skills are going to be stifled in the playoffs.

I'd say the numbers you projected for him are perfectly achievable in the regular season, but I'm expecting something more like 13/4/2 in the playoffs on roughly 45%/38%/78% shooting - which is still a massive upgrade over our bench wings but he'll be more of a good role player than a guy who gives us that extra bite in the playoffs that people on this forum like to believe. Adding a guy like Otto Porter Jr via the buyout market would change the equation entirely though (synergistic effect of having multiple shooters who can make the extra pass and attack aggressive closeouts), and atm we have a pretty good squad.

I get your criticism, but part of it seems to be that Wes Matthews was a bad defender last playoffs, or something like that, and Fournier failed against him?  And it’s true, Fournier did fail against Matthews, scoring 21 points in 123 possessions over 32 minutes in which his primary defender was Matthews (by far the person who was on him the most), while the Magic scored 164 points. But in the next series, Matthews was Jimmy Butler’s primary defender, for 125 possessions over 36 minutes, and Butler scored 25 points while the Heat scored 169.  A few more assists and slightly more efficient shooting, but nothing great.

In other words, vs. Miami the Bucks put Wes Matthews against Miami’s best player, and he was shut down almost as much.  This implies that the Bucks treated Matthews as their best wing defender.

The year before, his primary defender was Kyle Lowry, who’s defensive reputation I hope you won’t argue against.

In other words, opposing defenses treated him like a #1/#2 option in the playoffs based on their matchups.  He’s not going to draw a team’s best, or even second-best, or probably even third-best, wing defender on the Celtics.  If he starts, he’s going to be treated like a #4 option for real, and not just look like a #4 option because an opponent focused on him sufficiently enough to neutralize him.  And if he doesn’t start, he’s probably going to see some very favorable matchups against bench players.

Fournier was the guy the Bucks and the Raptors both circled and said “Don’t let him beat us”, which was a compliment to his abilities.  The ding against Fournier is that he didn’t rise above the challenge. On the Celtics, he’s not going to be the guy they circle, and he’ll hopefully have a challenge that he is more able to overcome.

No it wasn't. Wesley Matthews is a very good wing defender, but he isn't a special defender because elite teams often have multiple defenders like him (eg. the Bucks had Middleton, Giannis and Bledsoe who can chase wings around really well). My point is that those teams put one of those defenders on him and he completely collapsed even after his team made adjustments to protect him in response to teams focusing on him.

Take the Bucks series for example. Fournier was demoted to being the third or even fourth option at times on those Magic offences behind Vucevic and DJ Augustin. Augustin had a way better series - he averaged 13.2/6/2 on 58.8% TS, but he was also facing strong defenders with a lot of defensive attention on him as the team relied on him as Vucevic's partner (he was mainly guarded by George Hill and Eric Bledsoe). The Raptors series was more of the same thing - his offensive load declined to being the third or fourth option (guys like Gordon, Ross and Augustin shouldered more offensive responsibility with Augustin and Gordon also drawing elite defenders in Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard respectively) and he was clearly the worst player out of the Magics' top 4.

The Bucks and Raptors might have circled Fournier as a guy to be wary of before their respective matchups against the Magic began, but he ended up being the ultimate paper tiger as he still performed poorly even after his teammates stepped up and relegated him as a third or fourth option.

[PaxtonDarcy]

*meant to post this here - sorry for the double

Im actually pretty high on our moves. Its pretty obvious what danny saw here.

Without giving up much, we replace Haywards production (dont crush me here) Fournier is really a hayward-lite type player. A bit better of a shooter, not quite as smart or as quality overall, but that was kind of the issue with Hayward, right? He knew he deserved a bigger role. Fournier seems like the right choice to replace him without the need for more responsibility. Whats more, he will probably cost us per year what we wanted to pay Hayward. I think this is best case scenario, within what was a actual possibility.

Second, losing theis sucks. But, its easy to see why danny likes Mo. Dude competes, plays super hard, and has had some observable success playing at a high level of basketball. Kind of seems like a Brad Stevens guy, I could see this move being one that maximizes the potential value here - not saying Mo has a high ceiling, but I think he could fill a similar role to Theis. He seems like a similar guy, a bit different profile in terms of defense. But, IMO its easy to see why and how Danny rationalized this one.

Overall, I think we just got better in a few areas. Its not like we were this horrible team before the trade, we were having some struggles and needed a change, for sure. I really feel like what Danny pulled off here is as good as it could be. We still get to see what Romeo and Neismith are made of, we didnt lose Smart - which again is a win - the dude is a confidence and loyalty guy. It wouldn't surprise that Danny knows this, floating his name out then having the ability to come out and say "no way, i'm not trading smart for anything other than an all star" probably means a lot to Smart. If this is calculated, it was ....smart.

Im in on these moves, I think they protect the long term plan Danny has put in place, makes us better in the now, expresses belief and loyalty in the core group, while also giving us flexibility in the future.

[mobilija]

Any "insiders" wanna share what the ESPN gurus were passing out as grades, winners/loosers, etc?