Grading Danny's deadline-day moves

[Celtics2021]

I voted C+.  Fournier is a fine move, but we had to use part of the TPE (Traded Player Exception) and then drop Theis (who is better than TT).  I would have preferred sending TT (and others) to Orlando for Fournier (gotta think they would have said yes since they need someone in addition to Mo Bamba) and save Their and the TPE.

We just seem to make a series of never-ending, lateral moves.  I have been Ainge's biggest backer, but my patience has run out. 

Now that I say this, watch him pull out a surprise in the buyout market.

Trading basically nothing for Fournier is not a lateral move.

It could end up being a lateral move despite the upgrade of Fournier given with the downgrade of Theis to Wagner.

I am not sure it is a lateral move but I am wondering about it. Or a minor improvement - most likely. Or a bigger improvement? Least likely for me right now but possible.

Real Plus Minus has Theis at 0.26 and Wagner at 0.10.
RAPTOR has Theis at 1.6 and Wagner at 3.7.
Win Shares/48 has Theis at .130 and Wagner at .120
PER Theis is 15.3 and Wagner 15.5.

There is a very real possibility that there is little to no downgrade from Theis to Wagner.

The greatest chance of a downgrade will come if Stevens doesn’t play Wagner and instead plays Thompson.

[gouki88]

So did Timelord get promoted to the starting team or does Thompson become the starter?

I would hope the Celtics care enough about winning to not play Thompson at all.

I would be alright with a rotation of Williams (28) / Wagner (20) at the 5

[mqtcelticsfan]

Interesting that so many graded Danny on what he did, instead of what he didn't do.

My pet peeve is the 4 spot. We've seen the Tatum/Brown future for a while now. We've had big money covering the other 3 starting spots, AND a boatload of draft assets, and it feels like all that has melted away.

A diminished Kemba is still here, and we have Rob Williams and a decent vet in TT at center, but power forward is being manned by a couple of end of roster guys. Nothing close to a starting quality player. We've had opportunities, but we just won't pay the price get a starting caliber guy to play there, or even get someone with some potential.

Now, we are out of bullets, and unless a young player becomes a quality asset or we hit a home run with a later pick, it ain't happening any time soon.

Would Orlando have taken Theis, Thompson, Nesmith, Edwards and a 2020 #1?  If so, I would have done that deal.

Obviously we’ll never know, but I feel like Gary Harris is pretty clearly better than any of those players (particularly past this year) before even getting into the lottery ticket status of RJ Hampton.

[Roy H.]

Interesting that so many graded Danny on what he did, instead of what he didn't do.

My pet peeve is the 4 spot. We've seen the Tatum/Brown future for a while now. We've had big money covering the other 3 starting spots, AND a boatload of draft assets, and it feels like all that has melted away.

A diminished Kemba is still here, and we have Rob Williams and a decent vet in TT at center, but power forward is being manned by a couple of end of roster guys. Nothing close to a starting quality player. We've had opportunities, but we just won't pay the price get a starting caliber guy to play there, or even get someone with some potential.

Now, we are out of bullets, and unless a young player becomes a quality asset or we hit a home run with a later pick, it ain't happening any time soon.

Would Orlando have taken Theis, Thompson, Nesmith, Edwards and a 2020 #1?  If so, I would have done that deal.

Obviously we’ll never know, but I feel like Gary Harris is pretty clearly better than any of those players (particularly past this year) before even getting into the lottery ticket status of RJ Hampton.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, obviously.  I think Harris has been bordering on garbage recently, especially in light of his $20 million contract.  Nesmith and Hampton are both playing below their potential.

I think being willing to deal a 2025 pick probably created some separation.  I can't imagine that Danny wanted to give up a pick four years down the line.

[Roy H.]

I voted C+.  Fournier is a fine move, but we had to use part of the TPE (Traded Player Exception) and then drop Theis (who is better than TT).  I would have preferred sending TT (and others) to Orlando for Fournier (gotta think they would have said yes since they need someone in addition to Mo Bamba) and save Their and the TPE.

We just seem to make a series of never-ending, lateral moves.  I have been Ainge's biggest backer, but my patience has run out. 

Now that I say this, watch him pull out a surprise in the buyout market.

Trading basically nothing for Fournier is not a lateral move.

It could end up being a lateral move despite the upgrade of Fournier given with the downgrade of Theis to Wagner.

I am not sure it is a lateral move but I am wondering about it. Or a minor improvement - most likely. Or a bigger improvement? Least likely for me right now but possible.

Real Plus Minus has Theis at 0.26 and Wagner at 0.10.
RAPTOR has Theis at 1.6 and Wagner at 3.7.
Win Shares/48 has Theis at .130 and Wagner at .120
PER Theis is 15.3 and Wagner 15.5.

There is a very real possibility that there is little to no downgrade from Theis to Wagner.

The greatest chance of a downgrade will come if Stevens doesn’t play Wagner and instead plays Thompson.

I don't think that made up formulas like these tell us much about the two players, at all.

[footey]

Don't understand all the bumming out about Theis.  By next year Wagner will make you forget about him; he will be better value to us than Theis. 

He is still very young (23) and will continue to improve. He plays very hard.  He projects to be a stretch 5 even though he has low 3 point percentage; is an 80% free throw shooter. I'm quite high on him, and expect the Celtics have belief in his future with the team.

[mqtcelticsfan]

Interesting that so many graded Danny on what he did, instead of what he didn't do.

My pet peeve is the 4 spot. We've seen the Tatum/Brown future for a while now. We've had big money covering the other 3 starting spots, AND a boatload of draft assets, and it feels like all that has melted away.

A diminished Kemba is still here, and we have Rob Williams and a decent vet in TT at center, but power forward is being manned by a couple of end of roster guys. Nothing close to a starting quality player. We've had opportunities, but we just won't pay the price get a starting caliber guy to play there, or even get someone with some potential.

Now, we are out of bullets, and unless a young player becomes a quality asset or we hit a home run with a later pick, it ain't happening any time soon.

Would Orlando have taken Theis, Thompson, Nesmith, Edwards and a 2020 #1?  If so, I would have done that deal.

Obviously we’ll never know, but I feel like Gary Harris is pretty clearly better than any of those players (particularly past this year) before even getting into the lottery ticket status of RJ Hampton.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, obviously.  I think Harris has been bordering on garbage recently, especially in light of his $20 million contract.  Nesmith and Hampton are both playing below their potential.

I think being willing to deal a 2025 pick probably created some separation.  I can't imagine that Danny wanted to give up a pick four years down the line.

For a team that clearly won’t be competing next year, I’d think Harris’ contract is a non-issue with it expiring next year, and that if he is more of a focal point in the offense this year he could be moved again for something next season. None of the non-Nesmith players Boston would offer there would have the potential, in my opinion.

[hwangjini_1]

I voted C+.  Fournier is a fine move, but we had to use part of the TPE (Traded Player Exception) and then drop Theis (who is better than TT).  I would have preferred sending TT (and others) to Orlando for Fournier (gotta think they would have said yes since they need someone in addition to Mo Bamba) and save Their and the TPE.

We just seem to make a series of never-ending, lateral moves.  I have been Ainge's biggest backer, but my patience has run out. 

Now that I say this, watch him pull out a surprise in the buyout market.

Trading basically nothing for Fournier is not a lateral move.

It could end up being a lateral move despite the upgrade of Fournier given with the downgrade of Theis to Wagner.

I am not sure it is a lateral move but I am wondering about it. Or a minor improvement - most likely. Or a bigger improvement? Least likely for me right now but possible.

Real Plus Minus has Theis at 0.26 and Wagner at 0.10.
RAPTOR has Theis at 1.6 and Wagner at 3.7.
Win Shares/48 has Theis at .130 and Wagner at .120
PER Theis is 15.3 and Wagner 15.5.

There is a very real possibility that there is little to no downgrade from Theis to Wagner.

The greatest chance of a downgrade will come if Stevens doesn’t play Wagner and instead plays Thompson.

here are a few other numbers to consider.


"Fouling is a BIG issue with Wagner. He committed 8.5 fouls per 100 team possessions — 2nd most in the league among players with at least 500 minutes."

"Turnovers are also a problem. He was at 3.7 per 100 team possessions, 8th highest in the league among players with at least 500 minutes."

oh, and Wagner is considered to be a poor defender as well.

[Moranis]

Boston is not any closer to a title this year and didn't get any players that could reasonably contribute in 2-3 years when Tatum and Brown are truly ready.

We're "closer", but we're certainly not a top-tier team.

But, what makes you think that Fournier can't contribute in 2-3 years?

He is a role player.  Boston can easily find a player of his caliber. So yeah he will still be able to play a role but it is a role that can easily be found.  It isn't a move that does anything to change the long term prospects which is what I was trying to say but probably didn't say very well

Easily?  I think he's 49th in scoring right now, and 23rd in 3PTM per game.  For a league with 150 starters and 450+ players, I think that that makes him more than an easily replaceable role player.

EDIT:  Only nine players in the NBA score at least 19.5 points, make 2.75 3PTs, and shoot 38.5% 3PT%.  Eight other than Fournier.

if he comes anywhere near averaging that here then my grade will change because it means he is clearly better than I think he is, but I suspect he is no where near that type of player here given what his role is going to be

Well, he's going from a second option to a 3B option, so the stats themselves will no doubt change.  Similar to how Gordon Hayward went from a 21 point score to a 17.5 point scorer his last year here.  But, the skill set to put up those numbers -- and very efficiently -- is there.

But that is my point.  Getting a good shooter that can hit open shots and doesn't do much else isn't that hard.  The Alec Burks of the world aren't hard to find and that is what I see Fournier as.  He isn't a core piece and it just seems like a waste of the TPE especially as it cost us Theis.

[Celtics2021]

I voted C+.  Fournier is a fine move, but we had to use part of the TPE (Traded Player Exception) and then drop Theis (who is better than TT).  I would have preferred sending TT (and others) to Orlando for Fournier (gotta think they would have said yes since they need someone in addition to Mo Bamba) and save Their and the TPE.

We just seem to make a series of never-ending, lateral moves.  I have been Ainge's biggest backer, but my patience has run out. 

Now that I say this, watch him pull out a surprise in the buyout market.

Trading basically nothing for Fournier is not a lateral move.

It could end up being a lateral move despite the upgrade of Fournier given with the downgrade of Theis to Wagner.

I am not sure it is a lateral move but I am wondering about it. Or a minor improvement - most likely. Or a bigger improvement? Least likely for me right now but possible.

Real Plus Minus has Theis at 0.26 and Wagner at 0.10.
RAPTOR has Theis at 1.6 and Wagner at 3.7.
Win Shares/48 has Theis at .130 and Wagner at .120
PER Theis is 15.3 and Wagner 15.5.

There is a very real possibility that there is little to no downgrade from Theis to Wagner.

The greatest chance of a downgrade will come if Stevens doesn’t play Wagner and instead plays Thompson.

here are a few other numbers to consider.


"Fouling is a BIG issue with Wagner. He committed 8.5 fouls per 100 team possessions — 2nd most in the league among players with at least 500 minutes."

"Turnovers are also a problem. He was at 3.7 per 100 team possessions, 8th highest in the league among players with at least 500 minutes."

oh, and Wagner is considered to be a poor defender as well.

He’s a third year player, and those stats are from last year, so you really shouldn’t be surprised if he’s improved.  His fouls have dropped by 10% (6.0 fouls per 36, down from 6.6 last year, so fouling out isn’t likely to happen all that much if he plays 20-25 minutes a game).  Turnovers are down nearly 50% (3.7 to 2.6) per 100.  Defensive numbers have improved too — Defensive BPM went from -0.3 to 0.9, Defensive RPM from -1.05 to -0.12.  He could be a sneaky good pickup.

[Who]

I would've liked to have seen the TPE used on someone with more upside. Someone with room for growth. That is what I liked about Aaron Gordon. Pretty good player as he is but good room for improvement beyond that and if he can fulfill some of that potential then he is a really valuable player.

I do not see that with Fournier. He is what he is - a stat padder on bad teams, a middling but useful player on good teams.

Gordon has been in the league for 7 years. What exactly do you see him growing into? I’d rather have a guy who can shoot in Fournier, who didn’t cost a starter, young prospect and a first round pick.

Mostly defense. Committing more on D and improving from a slightly above average defender into a high level defender. Some possible improvement on offense in terms of shot selection when playing a smaller role than asked to fill in Orlando. Hopefully turning himself into a top 10 PF.

[Who]

Don't understand all the bumming out about Theis.  By next year Wagner will make you forget about him; he will be better value to us than Theis. 

He is still very young (23) and will continue to improve. He plays very hard.  He projects to be a stretch 5 even though he has low 3 point percentage; is an 80% free throw shooter. I'm quite high on him, and expect the Celtics have belief in his future with the team.

Mo Wagner has some skill but he is one of the most unathletic big men in the league and that kills him on defense.

The main reason Washington have sucked so badly this season and last year has been their decision to play all-offense no-defense lineups that Wagner has been a huge part of. And that is why they are losing so many games.

He is a one-way player.

[Celtics Mike]

My overall rating is B
Fournier is a welcome addition but Theis will be a big loss especially as he was an important part of Brad's system. Will be important to resign Fournier

[liam]

Don't understand all the bumming out about Theis.  By next year Wagner will make you forget about him; he will be better value to us than Theis. 

He is still very young (23) and will continue to improve. He plays very hard.  He projects to be a stretch 5 even though he has low 3 point percentage; is an 80% free throw shooter. I'm quite high on him, and expect the Celtics have belief in his future with the team.

Mo Wagner has some skill but he is one of the most unathletic big men in the league and that kills him on defense.

The main reason Washington have sucked so badly this season and last year has been their decision to play all-offense no-defense lineups that Wagner has been a huge part of. And that is why they are losing so many games.

He is a one-way player.

I don't think you can blame all of the Wizards woes on a backup center playing 15 minutes a game. I like Mo but he's going to be a third string center here. Oh, and he's a 23 year old big man.

[Celtics2021]

Don't understand all the bumming out about Theis.  By next year Wagner will make you forget about him; he will be better value to us than Theis. 

He is still very young (23) and will continue to improve. He plays very hard.  He projects to be a stretch 5 even though he has low 3 point percentage; is an 80% free throw shooter. I'm quite high on him, and expect the Celtics have belief in his future with the team.

Mo Wagner has some skill but he is one of the most unathletic big men in the league and that kills him on defense.

The main reason Washington have sucked so badly this season and last year has been their decision to play all-offense no-defense lineups that Wagner has been a huge part of. And that is why they are losing so many games.

He is a one-way player.

I don't think you can blame all of the Wizards woes on a backup center playing 15 minutes a game. I like Mo but he's going to be a third string center here.

Especially considering the all-offense, no defense Wizards allow 3 points fewer per 100 with Wagner on the court than off (and score 6 points more per 100).  In fact, the Wizards allow fewer points per 100 with Wagner than the Celtics do on average.