Grading Danny's deadline-day moves

[liam]

Don't understand all the bumming out about Theis.  By next year Wagner will make you forget about him; he will be better value to us than Theis. 

He is still very young (23) and will continue to improve. He plays very hard.  He projects to be a stretch 5 even though he has low 3 point percentage; is an 80% free throw shooter. I'm quite high on him, and expect the Celtics have belief in his future with the team.

Mo Wagner has some skill but he is one of the most unathletic big men in the league and that kills him on defense.

The main reason Washington have sucked so badly this season and last year has been their decision to play all-offense no-defense lineups that Wagner has been a huge part of. And that is why they are losing so many games.

He is a one-way player.

I don't think you can blame all of the Wizards woes on a backup center playing 15 minutes a game. I like Mo but he's going to be a third string center here.

Especially considering the all-offense, no defense Wizards allow 3 points fewer per 100 with Wagner on the court than off (and score 6 points more per 100).  In fact, the Wizards allow fewer points per 100 with Wagner than the Celtics do on average.

He was also leading the league in charges taken one year. He can play.

[Csfan1984]

Gave it a D+. If Fournier resigns or helps team get to ECF then it's a B+. Hated moving Theis and Green. We should have moved TT and had two Germans FTW. The price for Fournier was great but it killed the TPE. If the longer term plan is Beal than the move is fine as the team will need to be under the tax and free of contracts that year and wouldn't be able to use TPE unless it was for another expiring player. In essence we can be moving things up a year to help a struggling team and the franchise maintain face. So we may not be able to fully judge this deadline till two years. Still if they moved TT and kept Theis the team lineup would have more spacing and chemistry this year. The 9 man rotation would have been

Walker, JB, Fournier, JT, Theis
PP, Smart, TL, Wag

I'd love that.

[IDreamCeltics]

I'm not willing to grade these moves yet.  I actually like Fournier and think he'll give Brad the flexibility around Jaylen and Tatum that's been lacking all year with another legitimate scorer at the wing. 

Theis leaving is weird, but he's never been more than a solid role player forced into an inappropriately large roll for his skill level.  I think forcing TT and Timelord to get more minutes is whatever... neither guy is a starting level center/forward at this point in their careers. 

I would have loved to see Danny roll the dice to see if Vucevic, Oladipo, or Aaron Gordon could have been that piece that pushed the team back into conference finals contention, but based on his moves I'd say he's given up on the season (which is totally reasonable given the Nets, Milwaukee, and Miami are all so far beyond where Boston is right now).

[Bobshot]

Vucevic is the guy they should have got. He's having a great year.

They got rid of Theis--surprise. So maybe now Ainge gets his way playing Rob W and yes, Tacko Fall.

Another 3P shooter? Ho hum. But at least Fournier can shoot the 3, which is not necessarily a requirement on a team where everybody shoots the 3.

I think the braintrust has lost its way. Time for some changes. I wonder if Ainge and Stevens are on the same page.

[tstorey_97]

If you watch Fournier, you can see his potential impact on a game offensively...I know nothing of his defense.

Opposing teams key on Fournier on the offensive end and you see why. If the defense leaves him alone he will hit the shot. My point is that he draws the defense and this will help the J's...a lot.

I think Mo looks ok and will be a decent backup center and fan favorite.

[greenhead85]

Voted B+.

Fournier somehow addresses the "misses" of Smart. Better shooter, taller and finishes/drives stronger to the hoop. Runs plays too. A tall combo guard.

Wagner and Kornet are really tall (6'11" and 7'2", respectively) who, unlike Theis, are ready to regularly bang bodies in the middle. Both have good mobility for their size and can shoot the 3-ball.

[Moranis]

BTW, I wasn't kidding when I said I thought Fournier is basically in the same category as Alec Burks.

Here are their per-36 numbers for their career

Burks
17 p, 5.3 r, 3.1 a, 1.1 s, 0.3 b, 2.0 t, 2.9 f - 44.3 2PT, 36.8 3PT, 79.5 FT - 53.3 TS%, .077 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.0 VORP

Fournier
18.2 p, 3.5 r, 3.3 a, 1.2 s, 0/4 b, 2.1 t, 2.5 f - 50.4 2PT, 37.6 3PT, 80.6 FT - 56.6 TS5, .080 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.8 VORP

In other words nearly identical players throughout their careers, except you can sign Burks for like 6 million like the Knicks did or sign Fournier for like 55 million over 3 years.   Fournier is a bit better, but not enough to make the contract difference worthwhile nor to use the the TPE on.  That is why I didn't like the Fournier trade let alone at the downgrade in the middle that was required to get below the luxury tax line.  That is why I gave the moves an F.  It just doesn't strike me like good roster management or utilization of assets when shooters like Burks are available all of the time.  And that is basically their role on this team.  Even if Kemba gets moved, they are 3rd option shooter type players.  It just wasn't a meaningful move this year or for the future and there were actually moves out there that could have helped either of those paths or not required using the majority of the TPE.

[colincb]

A-

Picked up a player who will push the non-productive players we still have further down the bench
Depending on who's hot, we can field a better team at the end of games
Used the TPE
Split the TPE so we can end up with two good mid-level players, which is better for roster construction
Created a TPE for Theis
Got center rid of a duplicative value at center that we couldn't use effectively
Picked up a 3rd string center
Stayed out of the tax until next season
Set team up for a suitable buy-out candidate if one appears

I would have rather retained Theis over TT, but that would have been tougher to do given their salaries. The only real negative is the need to re-sign Fournier or flip him, but we'd face that with Gordon too eventually. I liked Vuc, but he didn't make much sense given his age, and Collins and Barnes were never really available.

In summary, created minutes for TL and PP through our subtractions and took away minutes from the end-of-bench players through the Fournier acquisition, improved our roster construction, and retained financial flexibility.

Most of all, Fournier's a big upgrade to our crunch-time line-up and certainly bigger in that regard than Gordon.

[slamtheking]

figured overall the moves were a C.

Positives:
Fournier brings another much needed scorer to the team. 
Team apparently cleared 2 players that weren't helping much in Teague and Green for players that can be released if someone good is bought out. 
Timelord will undoubtedly get more minutes now.

Negatives:
Lost Theis as a solid rotation big for 2 guys that likely are off the roster before the end of the season.
Lost a big chunk of the TPE for someone who's not really worth their salary so there's no chance to land a big fish in the offseason without moving Kemba or a Smart/TT combination.
Have to resign Fournier to make any of this worthwhile and he's likely not terribly agreeable to a major pay cut

[Rhyso]

I'm not willing to grade these moves yet.  I actually like Fournier and think he'll give Brad the flexibility around Jaylen and Tatum that's been lacking all year with another legitimate scorer at the wing. 

Theis leaving is weird, but he's never been more than a solid role player forced into an inappropriately large roll for his skill level.  I think forcing TT and Timelord to get more minutes is whatever... neither guy is a starting level center/forward at this point in their careers. 

I would have loved to see Danny roll the dice to see if Vucevic, Oladipo, or Aaron Gordon could have been that piece that pushed the team back into conference finals contention, but based on his moves I'd say he's given up on the season (which is totally reasonable given the Nets, Milwaukee, and Miami are all so far beyond where Boston is right now).

I think this is it, can't grade it until we see the fit, and if Fournier re-signs or walks.
Also as solid as Theis has been, I've always felt he's been playing a larger role than he should be for a team with Championship aspirations and would be a great backup center. Thompson and Timelord is a solid rotation for us IMO, Thompson will come good by the playoffs.

[Muzzy66]

BTW, I wasn't kidding when I said I thought Fournier is basically in the same category as Alec Burks.

Here are their per-36 numbers for their career

Burks
17 p, 5.3 r, 3.1 a, 1.1 s, 0.3 b, 2.0 t, 2.9 f - 44.3 2PT, 36.8 3PT, 79.5 FT - 53.3 TS%, .077 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.0 VORP

Fournier
18.2 p, 3.5 r, 3.3 a, 1.2 s, 0/4 b, 2.1 t, 2.5 f - 50.4 2PT, 37.6 3PT, 80.6 FT - 56.6 TS5, .080 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.8 VORP

In other words nearly identical players throughout their careers, except you can sign Burks for like 6 million like the Knicks did or sign Fournier for like 55 million over 3 years.

You're posting career averages, but that may not tell the full story given that Fournier has trended up this past two years.

This season their Per-36 numbers are actually....

Fournier: 23.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.4 blk, 46% FG, 39% 3PT, 80% FT
Burke: 17.6 pts, 6.1 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.3 blk, 42% FG, 40% 3PT, 86% FT

Those PP36 and FG% differences are NOT small...and there is also no guarantee that Burks would have any interest in signing with the Celtics.  It's very easy to say "you could have signed player XYZ as a free agent" but the key word here is free agent.  A free agent gets to choose which one of the 30 NBA teams he will sign with - if you're banking on any free agent signing the odds aren't in your favour.

Also while their on paper stats look similar, it doesn't seem like NBA coaches believe they are comparable level players...because Fournier has averaged >30 MPG as a starter for the past 6 consecutive seasons, while Burks hasn't averaged >30 MPG in a season since the 14/15.

Anyway it's ultimately a moot point I think.  Important thing is that Fournier came at a low cost (Teague and a pair of 2nd rounders) and fulfils three of the Celtics' most crucial needs - he adds a consistent scoring threat to help take pressure off our 'big 3', and adds much needed shooting to help stretch the floor, and he adds depth to our roster because now we can have either Fournier or Smart leading the second unit.

[gouki88]

BTW, I wasn't kidding when I said I thought Fournier is basically in the same category as Alec Burks.

Here are their per-36 numbers for their career

Burks
17 p, 5.3 r, 3.1 a, 1.1 s, 0.3 b, 2.0 t, 2.9 f - 44.3 2PT, 36.8 3PT, 79.5 FT - 53.3 TS%, .077 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.0 VORP

Fournier
18.2 p, 3.5 r, 3.3 a, 1.2 s, 0/4 b, 2.1 t, 2.5 f - 50.4 2PT, 37.6 3PT, 80.6 FT - 56.6 TS5, .080 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.8 VORP

In other words nearly identical players throughout their careers, except you can sign Burks for like 6 million like the Knicks did or sign Fournier for like 55 million over 3 years.   Fournier is a bit better, but not enough to make the contract difference worthwhile nor to use the the TPE on.  That is why I didn't like the Fournier trade let alone at the downgrade in the middle that was required to get below the luxury tax line.  That is why I gave the moves an F.  It just doesn't strike me like good roster management or utilization of assets when shooters like Burks are available all of the time.  And that is basically their role on this team.  Even if Kemba gets moved, they are 3rd option shooter type players.  It just wasn't a meaningful move this year or for the future and there were actually moves out there that could have helped either of those paths or not required using the majority of the TPE.

This is a pretty lazy statistical analysis. Using career numbers is pretty irrelevant given they're not resemblant of how they play now at all. Over the last 4 years Fournier has been a significantly more efficient scorer, as well as being a better passer and a better shooter (same %, more attempts). They're both mediocre defenders, I guess Burks rebounds better? 

You're also doing the incredibly dishonest thing of comparing a guy who plays a touch over 22MPG with a guy who nearly averages 32MPG and presenting it as if they're facing the same level of defence or playing the same role offensively.

[Moranis]

BTW, I wasn't kidding when I said I thought Fournier is basically in the same category as Alec Burks.

Here are their per-36 numbers for their career

Burks
17 p, 5.3 r, 3.1 a, 1.1 s, 0.3 b, 2.0 t, 2.9 f - 44.3 2PT, 36.8 3PT, 79.5 FT - 53.3 TS%, .077 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.0 VORP

Fournier
18.2 p, 3.5 r, 3.3 a, 1.2 s, 0/4 b, 2.1 t, 2.5 f - 50.4 2PT, 37.6 3PT, 80.6 FT - 56.6 TS5, .080 WS/48, -1.0 BPM, 3.8 VORP

In other words nearly identical players throughout their careers, except you can sign Burks for like 6 million like the Knicks did or sign Fournier for like 55 million over 3 years.   Fournier is a bit better, but not enough to make the contract difference worthwhile nor to use the the TPE on.  That is why I didn't like the Fournier trade let alone at the downgrade in the middle that was required to get below the luxury tax line.  That is why I gave the moves an F.  It just doesn't strike me like good roster management or utilization of assets when shooters like Burks are available all of the time.  And that is basically their role on this team.  Even if Kemba gets moved, they are 3rd option shooter type players.  It just wasn't a meaningful move this year or for the future and there were actually moves out there that could have helped either of those paths or not required using the majority of the TPE.

This is a pretty lazy statistical analysis. Using career numbers is pretty irrelevant given they're not resemblant of how they play now at all. Over the last 4 years Fournier has been a significantly more efficient scorer, as well as being a better passer and a better shooter (same %, more attempts). They're both mediocre defenders, I guess Burks rebounds better? 

You're also doing the incredibly dishonest thing of comparing a guy who plays a touch over 22MPG with a guy who nearly averages 32MPG and presenting it as if they're facing the same level of defence or playing the same role offensively.

when they have played similar roles, they have had similar numbers though.  last year in GS Burks played 29 mpg and scored 16.1 ppg on 12.5 shots with 4.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, which isn't a whole lot different than Fournier right now.  Fournier is better, but not 3 times the salary better.  Not using the vast majority of the TPE better.  Not salary dumping Theis to avoid the luxury tax better.  That is the point I'm making.  Fournier is a role player.  He is a good, but not elite shooter.  He doesn't rebound well at all.  He doesn't pass very well.  He doesn't defend well.  He will make Boston a bit better, but no where near better to make it worth acquiring Fournier at the lost opportunity cost on the TPE and dumping Theis. 

[trickybilly]

At least Danny is making guys accountable. You miss an open buzzer beater? You get traded two days later.

[trickybilly]

At least Danny is making guys accountable. You miss an open buzzer-beater game winner? You get traded two days later.