(Update) Celtics NOT favorites to land Aaron Gordon

[Vermont Green]

If we can land Fournier and Gordon for just Marcus Smart and picks ?

That’s one heckuva deal for the Celtics. Big time steal IMO

That deal is literally impossible because of the hard cap, so I’m pretty confident it is not the deal being discussed.

Yes, that is what is getting lost at times.  Gordon and Fournier is a ton of salary.  We need to send out more than just Smart just to avoid the hard cap much less avoid tax and repeater status.  It is not just about the Hayward TPE.  Smart can work for Collins and Bogdanovic as Collins has a very low salary for now.  The better deal for Orlando is to send out Kemba.  In that case we are fine against the hard cap and tax and don't need to use any of the Hayward TPE.

The other debate seems to be why do a trade if it does not make you a title contender.  I feel incremental trades are fine, necessary actually, but there is an opportunity cost with any trade.  If you use the TPE for this, you can't use it for that.  Same with finite cap space or picks.  In this case, there are ways to trade for Gordon and get incrementally better, without locking us out of other moves that we would need to do.

I feel we need a good big to go to the next level in any scenario.  This is the right piece to be targeting.  We can't use all our bullets on that deal though, and I don't think we will need to.

[Goldstar88]

So if the C’s do trade for Gordon for say, Nesmith or Romeo and a 1st round pick, how much is Gordon likely to command when he becomes and Unrestricted free agent after next season? If it’s $20M+ year, is that going to prevent the C’s from bringing in a 3rd all star player? Does that also mean that Boston will only be able to retain either Gordon or Smart as their contracts are up at the same time?

I mean, why do we need to worry about this at the moment

He is still under teams control for next season.   

Obtaining Gordon and getting back into proper playoff contention needs to be the focus

Proper playoff contention as in being the 4th seed and getting eliminated second round? This trade does not make the C’s better than the Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee this year or next. Hopefully there’s another move coming in the off-season to add an actual All-Star that can move the needle.

How do you know that? 

Last year Philly was struggling to stay within the top 4, this year they added Dwight Howard and Danny Green and they are looking like the best team in the East.   Are Danny Green and Dwight Howard more impactful then Gordon and Fornier in your opinion?  I certainly don't think so. 

Likewise after the 18-19 season Boston lost Al Horford and "downgraded" Kyrie for Kemba.  People almost universally said that the team would get far worse, yet their win record improved from 49-33 (0.600) to 48-24 (0.666).

If Philly can add those two guys and become an instant top tier contender, and Boston could cop two "downgrades" and somehow improve...then I don't see why it would be so unfathomable that Boston could make the a major jump by adding Gordon and Fournier.  As i said in my previous post, modest roster changes can have major impacts IF they are the right changes. 

Granted, Philly's improvement has probably been more a result of coaching changes then player changes...but some might argue the same is true for Boston.

The Sixers are playing much better this year because Embiid is playing at an MVP level and they have a new coach that came in and changed the culture. Danny Green and Dwight are solid bench players, but let’s not pretend that they are the reason for this new look Sixers team.

[Sophomore]

Just listened to a podcast with an Orlando podcaster. He said Smart plus two picks is a *much* better offer than Orlando was seeing from other teams. The leading piece in other deals might be Gary Harris (injured, again) or Robert Covington. The Magic have always liked Smart and really want a highly competitive player, which they currently don’t have, to reset their culture. They’re also looking to play a lot of young guys next year and want someone who can help organize the other players. Net, he as much as said Smart plus two picks is a bottom line overpay. Gordon isn’t valued by the league nearly as high as he is by some on this site.

The speculation was that Thompson plus two protected picks would get Gordon, that you might be able to get him and Fournier for Nesmith and a couple of picks.

[Wretch]

The Sixers are playing much better this year because Embiid is playing at an MVP level and they have a new coach that came in and changed the culture. Danny Green and Dwight are solid bench players, but let’s not pretend that they are the reason for this new look Sixers team.

You think that maybe the key to Embiid playing at that level might be tied to better roster construction?  They brought in "lesser" players. like Seth Curry, than they ones they traded away, Richardson, that were better shooters to open up the paint for Embiid and let him play with more space.  Talent matters, roster construction matters too.

[Goldstar88]

The Sixers are playing much better this year because Embiid is playing at an MVP level and they have a new coach that came in and changed the culture. Danny Green and Dwight are solid bench players, but let’s not pretend that they are the reason for this new look Sixers team.

You think that maybe the key to Embiid playing at that level might be tied to better roster construction?  They brought in "lesser" players. like Seth Curry, than they ones they traded away, Richardson, that were better shooters to open up the paint for Embiid and let him play with more space.  Talent matters, roster construction matters too.

No, I don’t think Embiid is playing at an MVP level because they brought in a Seth Curry and Dwight Howard. Think it has more to do with him being more assertive and the team having a much better coach. Not saying that roster construction doesn’t matter, but I don’t think it’s a primary reason for Embiid’s improved play.

[wdleehi]

Do you think the Celtics current roster, plus Aaron Gordon makes Boston better than Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee?

It’s not about being better than any other Team, it’s about improving the Team you have

If Such player or players makes this current team better you make the move

Problem with Ainge is simple, he has been reluctant to build a Team which is why your in this predicament in the first place

[/b]

No, you don’t just make any move in order to make the team marginally better. Especially if said move uses assets that could be used in the off-season to acquire a legitimate All-Star.

It depends whether or not the assets you get back are better for the next trade.   I would say if the Celtics get Gordon without giving up Smart, they will be in better position to add another star level player next year then having an expiring TE and draft picks.

[Moranis]

The Sixers are playing much better this year because Embiid is playing at an MVP level and they have a new coach that came in and changed the culture. Danny Green and Dwight are solid bench players, but let’s not pretend that they are the reason for this new look Sixers team.

You think that maybe the key to Embiid playing at that level might be tied to better roster construction?  They brought in "lesser" players. like Seth Curry, than they ones they traded away, Richardson, that were better shooters to open up the paint for Embiid and let him play with more space.  Talent matters, roster construction matters too.

No, I don’t think Embiid is playing at an MVP level because they brought in a Seth Curry and Dwight Howard. Think it has more to do with him being more assertive and the team having a much better coach. Not saying that roster construction doesn’t matter, but I don’t think it’s a primary reason for Embiid’s improved play.

Howard has next to nothing to do with Embiid playing better since Howard and Embiid are basically never on the floor together at the same time, but Curry and Green in the starting lineup has helped Embiid a lot.  They needed that shooting around Embiid and Simmons.  It has helped a ton as it has opened up the paint a lot more and Embiid's increase in production is due to a large part because he is getting to the line more and staying in the paint more (lowest 3PA per minute this year).  Some of that is coaching of course.  Some of that is Embiid just growing as a player.
 I mean we tend to forget that Embiid has only played 240 regular season games and has only played in games in 5 season (his first 2 seasons were 0 games).  As a point of comparison Tatum has played 262, so Embiid is still able to make decent strides which should be atypical for someone in year 7. 

[Phantom255x]

My gut feeling still says nothing will happen at the deadline. Though maybe Ainge surprises and actually makes a cheap trade/signing for some bench help. But in terms of a real player and/or using the TPE, that likely will happen in the offseason.

I think the ideal situation is to trade for John Collins + someone else on the Hawks, because Collins salary is only like 4M this season and through trade we'd have his Bird Rights, so extending him is possible. And I don't think it'd affect our luxury tax hard cap much because of that. This scenario also allows us to keep the TPE to use on another player in the offseason.

But the Hawks are the 4 seed and balling as of late so idk if they even want to be sellers. Also I'm not as convinced Ainge really wants to trade Smart still, though he's probably more open to that idea than  years past.

[Vermont Green]

But the Hawks are the 4 seed and balling as of late so idk if they even want to be sellers. Also I'm not as convinced Ainge really wants to trade Smart still, though he's probably more open to that idea than  years past.

It is interesting that in the East, the top 4 teams (PHI, BKN, MIL, ATL) are all either 9-1 or 8-2 in the last 10 games.  MIA, NYK, CHA, and BOS are all either 5-5 or 6-4.  Pretty clear divide.

This does put ATL in a tough situation.  They have Capela and Gallinari both healthy now so I think they could trade Collins for Smart and continue to contend while probably being better set for the future (if in their mind, Collins on a big contract is not part of that future).

[Vermont Green]

The speculation was that Thompson plus two protected picks would get Gordon,

Sign me up.

[Csfan1984]

I prefer Kemba, a first and GW for Fournier and Gordon. Feel keeping Smart's defense is more important. I'd consider starting Fournier at PG.
Starters
Fournier, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, RW
They would be very switch capable and have plenty of fire power.

Bench
PP, Smart, Theis, TT
These bench players would see 14 to 24 mins a night. with
First Guard=Smart
First Big= Theis
No bench Wing needed as Fournier, the Js and Gordon can stagger bench rest minutes.
Second Guard=PP
Second Big= TT

Think that team if it gels, runs and plays hard on defense beats the Nets. Their upside is on wearing the Nets down with constant pressure. Same for going against 76ers and Bucks. They could run teams out and use length at each position to smother teams.

Evan Fournier has never in his life been able to play PG. That starting lineup would get crushed by small quick guards on the perimeter.

Other than that, could be a solid team

I disagree on Fournier. And even with Kemba and Smart that is still happening with quick PGs (way too often). You want length and switchable guys to stop quick guards who iso or use pick and rolls for better rotations and coverage. So long as all the players move well and feature size or freak athleticism it will work.

[Csfan1984]

My gut feeling still says nothing will happen at the deadline. Though maybe Ainge surprises and actually makes a cheap trade/signing for some bench help. But in terms of a real player and/or using the TPE, that likely will happen in the offseason.

I think the ideal situation is to trade for John Collins + someone else on the Hawks, because Collins salary is only like 4M this season and through trade we'd have his Bird Rights, so extending him is possible. And I don't think it'd affect our luxury tax hard cap much because of that. This scenario also allows us to keep the TPE to use on another player in the offseason.

But the Hawks are the 4 seed and balling as of late so idk if they even want to be sellers. Also I'm not as convinced Ainge really wants to trade Smart still, though he's probably more open to that idea than  years past.

I'd settle for George Hill via Edwards and a protected first that is likely to be two 2nds.

[Celtics4ever]

That starting lineup would get crushed by small quick guards on the perimeter.

That never works for us in the playoffs.  Small guards can do well but they also can be bullied in the playoffs.   We've seen it with Kemba and IT at times.  Also, taller players if they can stay in front of their man can really effect small guy shooting,  It is good enough until they banged up then their not as quick and break down.  Small guards can be posted up as well and with more Rob = more rim protection vs. pesky quick guards.

[$Mike$]

 " I disagree on Fournier. And even with Kemba and Smart that is still happening with quick PGs (way too often). You want length and switchable guys to stop quick guards who iso or use pick and rolls for better rotations and coverage. So long as all the players move well and feature size or freak athleticism it will work."

I also agree and that is why I think Lonzo Ball would be a better fit. His current contract is less than Fourniers and his projected contract is around the ballpark Ball will be in for future the future contract $17-20 mil range. If acquired by trade, I believe bird rights would allow the Celtics to go over the salary cap to resign. Ball is a pass-first, long PG who and defend multiple positions, rebounds, who has approved his 3pt shooting 38.5% and does not need to be a high volume shooter-which is very important with Tatum and Brown on the team. Add him and Gordon and give our next two/three years of what should be late first round picks and anyone but Tatum, Brown, R. Williams to do it...I'd love to keep Smart too, but don't  think it is likely. With this roster, the Celtics would be young enough to lose out in 2-3 years of drafting in the first round.

[Who]

I am not 100% sure but I have a memory of Fournier being tried out as a PG earlier in his career and the results being bad.

That lineup with Fournier at PG makes me worried about the offense before the defense. Nobody to direct the play / organize the team. No creative playmaker to play through. Lack of hierarchy playmakers. Feels like it would devolve into a "his turn, my turn" one-on-one play from the perimeter that would be low efficiency basketball.

And that is before you get to the defensive issues of who guards the opposing PG -- Jaylen, I'd guess.

My feeling is that lineup would be better off with a genuine PG and Fournier as a 6th man.