(Update) Celtics NOT favorites to land Aaron Gordon

[liam]

Danny should give the Magic a deadline and walk away

Magic is overplaying their hands if they think they can get more than 2 1sts for Gordon

Sometimes its not a bad idea to take the early deal. Before the offer disappears

They call it pulling an Indiana....

[Celtics2021]

If you haven't seen B Robb's breakdown I recommend it. He sketches three possible trades (assuming the Cs can't get third teams involved), and I agree with his read that the best possible deal we're likely to see looks something like this:

Celtics offer a first round pick, second round pick and a young wing (Aaron Nesmith/Romeo Langford) for Gordon


https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/03/what-would-aaron-gordon-trade-to-celtics-look-like-evaluating-three-potential-deal-scenarios.html

That's close to the two firsts Orlando is asking for, and we really don't want to be adding Smart and another first to get a Fournier rental.

I would rather trade another first than Nesmith or Langford.

I’d definitely trade Nesmith before trading a 1st.  I get frustrated at trade proposals that treat the two as interchangeable.

They are not interchangeable because the chances of the Celtics having the 14th pick again are pretty slim. I’d rather trade a probable mid late pick.

Posting fail.  I meant I dislike proposals that treat Nesmith and Langford as interchangeable.

I frankly think the most recent draft was terribly weak, and in a normal year Nesmith would be a pick in the 20s.  I’d rather have a pick this year in the 15-20 range than Nesmith, no question.

[Tr1boy]

If you haven't seen B Robb's breakdown I recommend it. He sketches three possible trades (assuming the Cs can't get third teams involved), and I agree with his read that the best possible deal we're likely to see looks something like this:

Celtics offer a first round pick, second round pick and a young wing (Aaron Nesmith/Romeo Langford) for Gordon


https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/03/what-would-aaron-gordon-trade-to-celtics-look-like-evaluating-three-potential-deal-scenarios.html

That's close to the two firsts Orlando is asking for, and we really don't want to be adding Smart and another first to get a Fournier rental.

I would rather trade another first than Nesmith or Langford.

I’d definitely trade Nesmith before trading a 1st.  I get frustrated at trade proposals that treat the two as interchangeable.

They are not interchangeable because the chances of the Celtics having the 14th pick again are pretty slim. I’d rather trade a probable mid late pick.

Posting fail.  I meant I dislike proposals that treat Nesmith and Langford as interchangeable.

I frankly think the most recent draft was terribly weak, and in a normal year Nesmith would be a pick in the 20s.  I’d rather have a pick this year in the 15-20 range than Nesmith, no question.

I think its still too early to close the door on Nesmith

It is Brad, Jays and Walker fault for not taking advantage of his shooting

Brad should be designing run around screens - at least 5 times a game for Nesmith.   

Another design could be, someone driving to the basket. Stopping. Passing to the top of the 3 pt line.  Driving again and swinging to an open Nesmith

Celts play such a lazy/stand around type basketball

[Goldstar88]

So if the C’s do trade for Gordon for say, Nesmith or Romeo and a 1st round pick, how much is Gordon likely to command when he becomes and Unrestricted free agent after next season? If it’s $20M+ year, is that going to prevent the C’s from bringing in a 3rd all star player? Does that also mean that Boston will only be able to retain either Gordon or Smart as their contracts are up at the same time?

I mean, why do we need to worry about this at the moment

He is still under teams control for next season.   

Obtaining Gordon and getting back into proper playoff contention needs to be the focus

Proper playoff contention as in being the 4th seed and getting eliminated second round? This trade does not make the C’s better than the Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee this year or next. Hopefully there’s another move coming in the off-season to add an actual All-Star that can move the needle.

[Celtics2021]

If you haven't seen B Robb's breakdown I recommend it. He sketches three possible trades (assuming the Cs can't get third teams involved), and I agree with his read that the best possible deal we're likely to see looks something like this:

Celtics offer a first round pick, second round pick and a young wing (Aaron Nesmith/Romeo Langford) for Gordon


https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2021/03/what-would-aaron-gordon-trade-to-celtics-look-like-evaluating-three-potential-deal-scenarios.html

That's close to the two firsts Orlando is asking for, and we really don't want to be adding Smart and another first to get a Fournier rental.

I would rather trade another first than Nesmith or Langford.

I’d definitely trade Nesmith before trading a 1st.  I get frustrated at trade proposals that treat the two as interchangeable.

They are not interchangeable because the chances of the Celtics having the 14th pick again are pretty slim. I’d rather trade a probable mid late pick.

Posting fail.  I meant I dislike proposals that treat Nesmith and Langford as interchangeable.

I frankly think the most recent draft was terribly weak, and in a normal year Nesmith would be a pick in the 20s.  I’d rather have a pick this year in the 15-20 range than Nesmith, no question.

I think its still too early to close the door on Nesmith

It is Brad, Jays and Walker fault for not taking advantage of his shooting

Brad should be designing run around screens - at least 5 times a game for Nesmith.   

Another design could be, someone driving to the basket. Stopping. Passing to the top of the 3 pt line.  Driving again and swinging to an open Nesmith

Celts play such a lazy/stand around type basketball

I'm not closing the door on Nesmith.  I just think he has late 1st round talent and was selected early because he had the potential to fill a specific role this year, which might have increased his value.  He hasn't filled that role, and accordingly I continue to value him as late 1st round talent.  If it's Nesmith or our 1st this year that looks to be in the 15-20 range, I'll take the pick.  If the pick is protected enough so that it becomes two seconds, I'd taken Nesmith.  And I'd take Langford above both of them, because I think he has an All-Star ceiling, even if it is becoming increasingly unlikely that he reaches that ceiling.  His driving ability is elite, he's shown himself to be a better defender than Nesmith, he's a better passer, and his spot up shooting should be able to become at least average, based on his free throw shooting.

[tstorey_97]

Just a thought...

"Two Celtics first round picks" isn't much for Aaron Gordon is it?

What are they going to be? 23rd or 24th? My point is that they have little value. I understand Gordon wants out and blah blah, but they have to get something for him.

I think it might be Smart, but, this stuff has crashed before.

[jambr380]

Just a thought...

"Two Celtics first round picks" isn't much for Aaron Gordon is it?

What are they going to be? 23rd or 24th? My point is that they have little value. I understand Gordon wants out and blah blah, but they have to get something for him.

I think it might be Smart, but, this stuff has crashed before.

It's not that he isn't worth two late 1sts; it's that we would then be unable to trade 1sts in a future package for a different player because of the Stepien Rule. If we could recoup one of those picks by dealing, say, Theis to a contender, then we don't empty the cupboard too badly.

[Tr1boy]

So if the C’s do trade for Gordon for say, Nesmith or Romeo and a 1st round pick, how much is Gordon likely to command when he becomes and Unrestricted free agent after next season? If it’s $20M+ year, is that going to prevent the C’s from bringing in a 3rd all star player? Does that also mean that Boston will only be able to retain either Gordon or Smart as their contracts are up at the same time?

I mean, why do we need to worry about this at the moment

He is still under teams control for next season.   

Obtaining Gordon and getting back into proper playoff contention needs to be the focus

Proper playoff contention as in being the 4th seed and getting eliminated second round? This trade does not make the C’s better than the Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee this year or next. Hopefully there’s another move coming in the off-season to add an actual All-Star that can move the needle.

you are making assumptions that can't be validated

With Gordon....  You have Tatum, Brown, Walker.... any four of these guys are capable to go "off"

Right now the Celtics are relying on 2 and half players (due to Kemba inability to play B2B) to provide consistent offense

Add Gordon consistent offensive output (minimum 15 points a night)...and how many more wins would the Celtics have this season as a result??

If another team wants to plan their defense around Tatum and Brown or Tatum and Walker.  This would mean Brown and Gordon for example are free to operate/easier time on the offensive end.

In some ways Gordon would provide better balance than Gordon Hayward, due to Aaron Gordon ability and willingness to finish near the basket

[Goldstar88]

So if the C’s do trade for Gordon for say, Nesmith or Romeo and a 1st round pick, how much is Gordon likely to command when he becomes and Unrestricted free agent after next season? If it’s $20M+ year, is that going to prevent the C’s from bringing in a 3rd all star player? Does that also mean that Boston will only be able to retain either Gordon or Smart as their contracts are up at the same time?

I mean, why do we need to worry about this at the moment

He is still under teams control for next season.   

Obtaining Gordon and getting back into proper playoff contention needs to be the focus

Proper playoff contention as in being the 4th seed and getting eliminated second round? This trade does not make the C’s better than the Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee this year or next. Hopefully there’s another move coming in the off-season to add an actual All-Star that can move the needle.

you are making assumptions that can't be validated

With Gordon....  You have Tatum, Brown, Walker.... any four of these guys are capable to go "off"

Right now the Celtics are relying on 2 and half players (due to Kemba inability to play B2B) to provide consistent offense

Add Gordon consistent offensive output (minimum 15 points a night)...and how many more wins would the Celtics have this season as a result??

If another team wants to plan their defense around Tatum and Brown or Tatum and Walker.  This would mean Brown and Gordon for example are free to operate/easier time on the offensive end.

In some ways Gordon would provide better balance than Gordon Hayward, due to Aaron Gordon ability and willingness to finish near the basket

Do you think the Celtics current roster, plus Aaron Gordon makes Boston better than Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee?

[colincb]

The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2469290/2021/03/23/nba-trade-deadline-week-2021-live-blog-updates-news-and-observations-from-the-athletics-insiders/?source=twitterhq

As for his suitors, a source with knowledge of Boston’s thinking said the Celtics’ concerns about how much Collins will cost in (restricted) free agency this offseason have compelled them to cool on this front.

and

How Aaron Gordon to Boston could work

So … Sam Amick put out the bat signal for some cap analysis Monday night on this possible Orlando-Boston trade (scroll below), and I am here to oblige.

A deal that sends Marcus Smart to Orlando for Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon is, indeed, possible cap-wise because Smart’s salary is enough to offset Gordon’s, and Fournier fits into Boston’s massive $28 million trade exception from the Gordon Hayward trade. In fact, the Celtics would still have $11 million left over on their exception after taking in Fournier.

However, a better way for Boston to execute this deal would be include the minimum salaries of Javonte Green and Carsen Edwards along with Smart. Including Green would send out a $1.5 million salary the Celtics would otherwise end up having to waive, while having no impact on the $18.1 million trade exception that the Magic would generate for Gordon. And in the absence of any other moves, including Edwards’s $1.5 million becomes necessary to keep Boston below the hard cap.

One other piece I expect to come up, if it hasn’t been already, is a Khem Birch-Tristan Thompson swap as part of any Gordon trade with Boston. Birch has an expiring deal worth $3 million, while Thompson makes $9.7 million next season. Birch and Fournier for Smart and Thompson is clean cap-wise and actually generates an additional $6.7 million trade exception on Boston’s side.

The biggest issue with the Celtics trading for Gordon and Fournier is that Boston is likely to be about $25 million over the luxury tax line if they add Gordon and re-sign free-agent-to-be Fournier and would go further over if they re-sign Daniel Theis. Including Thompson in the trade would cut the number nearly in half and make this whole thing far more palatable from Boston’s end.

Alas, Orlando probably isn’t jonesing to pay Thompson $9.7 million next year either. Such a move would leave the Magic themselves just $10 million from next year’s tax line, and their first-round pick would soak up much of that room. Basically, it would make the Gordon traded player exception irrelevant because they wouldn’t be able to use it, and likely rob the Magic of using their full midlevel exception too. The Magic would need that money to sign a 3-and-D wing after losing Gordon and Fournier. Additionally, Thompson would be another potential roadblock to playing time for 2018 lottery pick Mo Bamba.

All told, I’d bet against Birch and Thompson being in this deal, but I’d be shocked if Boston didn’t broach it.

Finally, one more Orlando-Boston wrinkle: The Celtics should look really hard at setting up this deal as an extend-and-trade with Fournier. Locking in Fournier at something around his current number of $17.1 million would reduce a lot of the risk in this deal for Boston and have no impact on the Magic. — John Hollinger

[Moranis]

The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2469290/2021/03/23/nba-trade-deadline-week-2021-live-blog-updates-news-and-observations-from-the-athletics-insiders/?source=twitterhq

As for his suitors, a source with knowledge of Boston’s thinking said the Celtics’ concerns about how much Collins will cost in (restricted) free agency this offseason have compelled them to cool on this front.

and

How Aaron Gordon to Boston could work

So … Sam Amick put out the bat signal for some cap analysis Monday night on this possible Orlando-Boston trade (scroll below), and I am here to oblige.

A deal that sends Marcus Smart to Orlando for Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon is, indeed, possible cap-wise because Smart’s salary is enough to offset Gordon’s, and Fournier fits into Boston’s massive $28 million trade exception from the Gordon Hayward trade. In fact, the Celtics would still have $11 million left over on their exception after taking in Fournier.

However, a better way for Boston to execute this deal would be include the minimum salaries of Javonte Green and Carsen Edwards along with Smart. Including Green would send out a $1.5 million salary the Celtics would otherwise end up having to waive, while having no impact on the $18.1 million trade exception that the Magic would generate for Gordon. And in the absence of any other moves, including Edwards’s $1.5 million becomes necessary to keep Boston below the hard cap.

One other piece I expect to come up, if it hasn’t been already, is a Khem Birch-Tristan Thompson swap as part of any Gordon trade with Boston. Birch has an expiring deal worth $3 million, while Thompson makes $9.7 million next season. Birch and Fournier for Smart and Thompson is clean cap-wise and actually generates an additional $6.7 million trade exception on Boston’s side.

The biggest issue with the Celtics trading for Gordon and Fournier is that Boston is likely to be about $25 million over the luxury tax line if they add Gordon and re-sign free-agent-to-be Fournier and would go further over if they re-sign Daniel Theis. Including Thompson in the trade would cut the number nearly in half and make this whole thing far more palatable from Boston’s end.

Alas, Orlando probably isn’t jonesing to pay Thompson $9.7 million next year either. Such a move would leave the Magic themselves just $10 million from next year’s tax line, and their first-round pick would soak up much of that room. Basically, it would make the Gordon traded player exception irrelevant because they wouldn’t be able to use it, and likely rob the Magic of using their full midlevel exception too. The Magic would need that money to sign a 3-and-D wing after losing Gordon and Fournier. Additionally, Thompson would be another potential roadblock to playing time for 2018 lottery pick Mo Bamba.

All told, I’d bet against Birch and Thompson being in this deal, but I’d be shocked if Boston didn’t broach it.

Finally, one more Orlando-Boston wrinkle: The Celtics should look really hard at setting up this deal as an extend-and-trade with Fournier. Locking in Fournier at something around his current number of $17.1 million would reduce a lot of the risk in this deal for Boston and have no impact on the Magic. — John Hollinger

Still don't like it, but Birch for Thompson at least makes it more palatable as does dumping Edwards.

At the end of the day I just don't think a team of Walker, Fournier, Brown, Tatum, Gordon, Theis, Birch, Nesmith, Langford, Teague, Pritchard is anywhere near good enough in either the short term or the long term so I don't see the point in doing that massive trade.

If it is just Gordon for some 1st's or some package where you trade for Gordon with guys like Thompson (even at the expense of Langford), I think I'd be ok with that, because then you still have Smart and Gordon to trade this summer as pieces in a trade to get that legit 3rd star to pair with Tatum and Brown.

[Moranis]

I also think a 3-team trade could work

So you do 2 trades -

Trade 1
BOS - Gordon
ORL - TPE, 21 1st, 23 1st (lotto)

Trade 2

LAC - Thompson, J. Green
ORL - L. Williams, Patterson, Langford, Edwards
BOS - Fournier


Something like that framework makes way more sense to me.  I believe that works though does make Boston a tax team. 

[flybono]

Do you think the Celtics current roster, plus Aaron Gordon makes Boston better than Brooklyn, Philly, or Milwaukee?
[/quote]

It’s not about being better than any other Team, it’s about improving the Team you have

If Such player or players makes this current team better you make the move

Problem with Ainge is simple, he has been reluctant to build a Team which is why your in this predicament in the first place

[Jiri Welsch]

The whole "Gordon won't put us over the top" thinking is true, but then I consider teams like Miami who are never afraid to improve the team (even if slightly). It turns out your rebuild can go just as quickly if you are willing to make the team better incrementally. Who'd have thunk it?

[arctic 3.0]

The whole "Gordon won't put us over the top" thinking is true, but then I consider teams like Miami who are never afraid to improve the team (even if slightly). It turns out your rebuild can go just as quickly if you are willing to make the team better incrementally. Who'd have thunk it?

This