Do you have faith?

[PhoSita]

You HAVE to fire Brad. He is not the answer to this team. This team needs a new direction and a new system. He needs to understand that these guys are not Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green of the Warriors. The offensive system has got to change.

So you want the team to get rid of the coach and change the entire offensive system in the middle of the season?

[Moranis]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

A better question may be how many games we would have won if Smart was healthy and Walker was not?

A couple of examples:

LA Lakers (1 point loss), Walker: 1-12
Phoenix (9 point loss), Walker: 4-20
New Orleans (5 point loss), Walker: 5-21

that's a bit of a false premise - you're making the assumption that Smart doesn't have a game where he shoots that badly but we've all seen him have plenty of those games.   I do think though that with Smart in the game instead of Kemba, the defense would have been much better and theoretically reducing the score of the other team in that manner thereby enabling the C's to win

Smart is the glue. We don't lose yesterday with him on our team. If we add Harrison Barnes or a player that can score of the bench. I think we can make the ECF again. Kemba I believe will keep getting on track. Time will Tell. Embrid always seems to get hurt. If Drummond maks it to the Nets. They have the East. It won't matter. I only hope Time Lord keeps getting better but his only 6-8.

Walker was +4 yesterday, meaning Boston was actually better with him on the floor then when he was on the bench.  And Smart played in the Laker game you referenced.  He was 2 of 7 and -5 in that game.  Boston is 9-8 with Smart on the year.  The Celtics are actually 1-5 with both Smart and Walker.  So 5-4 with just Walker and 8-3 with just Smart. 

[PhoSita]

always.  come on now. 

tell me the last season you thought the celts were as talented or more talented than the other teams in the league with a similar W/L.


or is Brad Stevens just so awesome that the Celts are always winning more games than they should, but in a way that doesn't mean they're actually that good?

[tonydelk]

I am definitely frustrated by this team.  More so because the pieces on this team do not fit.  I also think, and sorry Smart haters, not having Smart is killing this team.  this is not a fun team to watch when it's Tatum, Brown and kemba Iso, dribble, dribble, dribble, shot or pass.  When they move the ball and drive to the hoop off a pass versus trying to break down their defender more opportunities open up.  Its like our big three just want to get theirs versus getting theirs in the flow of the offense.  It's why Gordon is such a good player.  Unselfish and he gets his shot in the flow of the offense or when he's on his spot.  The Cs lost yesterday due to not being able to hit the broad side of a barn because they didn't move the ball.  It's ugly basketball when they are not passing.  It also hurts there D because the opponent is getting the rebound and running in transition not letting the C's D get set.  I don't blame this on the coaching staff.  I blame this on the team.  The C's need shooters.  I like Semi and he's come a long way but he's not instilling fear in the defense.  The C's need a few more pieces.  Thompson just doesn't fit.  the C's need bench upgrades.  I'm frustrated because you see quarters where they just look like a dominant team that can beat anyone (1st half yesterday)  Then they look so bad they look like a lottery team (2nd half) 

[LilRip]

The key to beating the Celtics down the stretch is doubling Tatum and staying home at Brown. Kemba miiiiiight beat you (albeit it’s doubtful given his recent health) but the 2 other guys will likely be pretty much non-factors.

This is where the C’s lack of shooting hurts them. Theis and Timelord make quite a pairing but down the stretch, when things get tight, they really ruin the spacing. It makes it too easy to double Tatum. Having Smart and either of Theis or Timelord would make a huge difference.

[GreenWarrior]

You HAVE to fire Brad. He is not the answer to this team. This team needs a new direction and a new system. He needs to understand that these guys are not Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green of the Warriors. The offensive system has got to change.

So you want the team to get rid of the coach and change the entire offensive system in the middle of the season?

Not sure if you noticed but our offensive philosophy is about as simple as you can get - 1st chance you get shoot a jump shot.

Adding a wrinkle like just drive to the basket isn't that difficult to implement.

I gave you a valid reason previously in this thread why stevens should have been let go at least after last season but definitely this season and asap.

If you don't agree with what I stated I don't know what more proof you need - we play a losing brand of basketball, it literally is the exact opposite of how you're supposed to win games in basketball.

[GreenWarrior]

The key to beating the Celtics down the stretch is doubling Tatum and staying home at Brown. Kemba miiiiiight beat you (albeit it’s doubtful given his recent health) but the 2 other guys will likely be pretty much non-factors.

This is where the C’s lack of shooting hurts them. Theis and Timelord make quite a pairing but down the stretch, when things get tight, they really ruin the spacing. It makes it too easy to double Tatum. Having Smart and either of Theis or Timelord would make a huge difference.

We're easy to defend. We make bad defensive teams look good.

This is one these things I was told during the AB yrs. that when we get better players this would change.

I'd say it's worse because we do have some better players but Brad's offensive philosophy has relegated them to jump shooters.

[Moranis]

always.  come on now. 

tell me the last season you thought the celts were as talented or more talented than the other teams in the league with a similar W/L.


or is Brad Stevens just so awesome that the Celts are always winning more games than they should, but in a way that doesn't mean they're actually that good?

regular season and post-season are not the same thing.  They are just different animals.  I mean look at the Raptors all those years.  Great regular season team, but never going to beat Lebron, even if Lebron's team had a much worse record.  But to your point, I absolutely have picked the C's to win games against teams with similar or even better records.  The Raptors and Celtics (aside from Kawhi year) were very similar teams.  I think match-ups between them would have come down to home court.  I picked Boston to beat Toronto last year though because home court wasn't a factor.  I've picked Boston to beat Philadelphia the last few times they played in the playoffs despite Embiid being the best player in the series.  In 19, I picked Boston to beat Indiana who had 1 less win than Boston in the regular season.  I didn't think the series would be particularly close and it wasn't.  I also picked Milwaukee to beat Boston in 5 the next round, which you know happened to be the exact result.  And I did that because Giannis was BY FAR the best player in that series and posed a huge match-up nightmare for Boston.

I've been very consistent that winning in the regular season and winning in the playoffs are two very different things.  You need the true top end talent to consistently win in the playoffs and really be a true contender, but you can win a lot of regular season games by just having a lot of real nice players and depth (health helps also).  Boston just hasn't had that true top end player since KG got old.  That is quite simply what you need to win playoff series after playoff series.  Boston has had some great runs in the playoffs, but certainly hasn't beaten a team with a top 5 player (the 18 Bucks were the closest thing, but that was right when Giannis really started making his move and I don't think most people had him as a top 5 guy that year as he was on the 2nd team).  Boston came close in 18 pushing Lebron to 7 games, but that is the year the Cavs were a mess and they still couldn't pull it out despite probably having the 2nd - 4th best players in the series (Love was banged up and only played 160 minutes in the series). 

Unless you have a top 5 player, you historically aren't going to win a title or really even compete for them except for what are basically flukes.  That is just historical reality.  And Boston clearly does not have a top 5 player right now.  Boston doesn't even have a top 10 one either.  I absolutely believe Tatum can reach both of those levels, but he hasn't yet and until he does Boston has no shot a winning a championship.  That is reality.   

[PhoSita]

If you don't agree with what I stated I don't know what more proof you need - we play a losing brand of basketball, it literally is the exact opposite of how you're supposed to win games in basketball.

A losing brand of basketball that

*checks notes*

has won 7 playoff series in 6 playoff runs, including three trips to the Eastern Conference Finals.



The Celts have never run the prettiest offense, but last season they had the 5th most efficient offense in the league, all the same.  Under Stevens they've always struggled to get to the free throw line enough, and they often don't take the ball into the paint even when outside shots aren't falling.  Those recurrent themes frustrate me.  But the results are hard to argue against, this year notwithstanding.

Even in years when the offense wasn't the greatest, the Celts have been a very good defensive team.  That's been fairly consistent under Stevens.  This season's team is an outlier in that respect.  They've gone from 4th in defense last year and 6th in defense the year before to 15th in defense this season.

Are they running a different defensive system?  No.  Have they lost any key defensive personnel?  I don't think Hayward or Kanter were particularly crucial on that end.

Issue is that they've had a lot of injuries, they're relying more than ever on a young bench, and their starting point guard is struggling as he returns from a nagging knee injury.

[todd_days_41]

Danny Ainge said this roster isn't good. Who am I to disagree with him? Team is a little like the 2002 Celtics, but probably not as good.

I think things will start looking up if they can:

a) dump Kemba Walker. I believe this is critical to the next 2-3 years. His contract is dangerously close to becoming a flexibility albatross. And;
b) Robert Williams continues to blossom. He could be really special.

Until then, I'm not sure what we're supposed to have faith in. Not a contender.

[PhoSita]

Danny Ainge said this roster isn't good. Who am I to disagree with him? Team is a little like the 2002 Celtics, but probably not as good.

I think things will start looking up if they can:

a) dump Kemba Walker. I believe this is critical to the next 2-3 years. And;
b) Robert Williams continues to blossom. He could be really special.


Until then, I'm not sure what we're supposed to have faith in. Not a contender.

i think the thing to have faith in would be the core 5 group that won a lot of games last year and made a run to the ECF.

i think it's fair not to have faith if you think kemba is really never getting back to what he is (i'm not there yet).

i think if you're hoping they will dump kemba you're going to be disappointed.  danny ainge doesn't dump guys when they are at their lowest value.  they didn't dump hayward, either, even when he was hurting the team.  i can't think of a single time ainge has dumped a guy in similar circumstances.  if they can't get value for kemba they'll just keep him.

[NKY fan]

Danny Ainge said this roster isn't good. Who am I to disagree with him? Team is a little like the 2002 Celtics, but probably not as good.

I think things will start looking up if they can:

a) dump Kemba Walker. I believe this is critical to the next 2-3 years. And;
b) Robert Williams continues to blossom. He could be really special.


Until then, I'm not sure what we're supposed to have faith in. Not a contender.

i think the thing to have faith in would be the core 5 group that won a lot of games last year and made a run to the ECF.

i think it's fair not to have faith if you think kemba is really never getting back to what he is (i'm not there yet).

i think if you're hoping they will dump kemba you're going to be disappointed.  danny ainge doesn't dump guys when they are at their lowest value.  they didn't dump hayward, either, even when he was hurting the team.  i can't think of a single time ainge has dumped a guy in similar circumstances.  if they can't get value for kemba they'll just keep him.

I know that Danny doesn't do salary dumps unless they are small - Jabari Bird / Kanter / Poirier / Baynes. Still hard to explain why he salary dumped Baynes and Kanter but whatever. The question to me becomes - is keeping kemba and feeding him shots and minutes negatively impact the engagement of the Js? I haven't listened to all their interviews but have they defended Kemba publicly and had his back?

[PhoSita]

The question to me becomes - is keeping kemba and feeding him shots and minutes negatively impact the engagement of the Js? I haven't listened to all their interviews but have they defended Kemba publicly and had his back?

I don't know about recently, but the piece from a couple months ago about players in the playoff bubble last summer documented that Kemba was pretty tight with Tatum.

I think from what I've read Kemba is seen as a really positive and well respected presence in the locker room.

So what are they supposed to do?  Use picks to dump him?  Or should they just bench him and totally kill any hope of being able to trade him for assets in the summer?


It sucks but they're kind of stuck having to play Kemba and hope he improves, similar to the situation with Hayward.  Either he improves enough that you want to keep him, or he improves enough that they can trade him for a neutral or positive return in the offseason.

[todd_days_41]

Danny Ainge said this roster isn't good. Who am I to disagree with him? Team is a little like the 2002 Celtics, but probably not as good.

I think things will start looking up if they can:

a) dump Kemba Walker. I believe this is critical to the next 2-3 years. And;
b) Robert Williams continues to blossom. He could be really special.


Until then, I'm not sure what we're supposed to have faith in. Not a contender.

i think the thing to have faith in would be the core 5 group that won a lot of games last year and made a run to the ECF.

i think it's fair not to have faith if you think kemba is really never getting back to what he is (i'm not there yet).

i think if you're hoping they will dump kemba you're going to be disappointed.  danny ainge doesn't dump guys when they are at their lowest value.  they didn't dump hayward, either, even when he was hurting the team.  i can't think of a single time ainge has dumped a guy in similar circumstances.  if they can't get value for kemba they'll just keep him.

I'm fully aware of the risk of trading a player who signed here as a max FA only 1.5 years ago. And I know how unlikely that is for Ainge. He knows what's good and bad for Free Agent business. I agree with you -- I'm likely to disappointed.

But I think the Kemba situation is unique to Danny's tenure, despite it being a long one. I actually think the Hayward situation was truly different.

It's my belief Kemba was a risky signing that's not a good fit, even when healthy. I still believe that. And now -- because of his health, I don't think his value is at its lowest yet. I worry he'll be the worst contract in the NBA by summer.

If the Cs are stuck with the shell of Kemba Walker, what will they do? The issues of getting FAs to Boston will not be assisted by Walker riding the bench. Cs will have to play him, get him his shots, etc. The domino effect on the offense will continue to be ugly, IMO.

If the Cs could get an expiring for Kemba right now -- I'd take it. And I'd be shocked if they ever do much better than that (until he's an expiring at the 2023 deadline), not to mention delaying the inevitable. Live to fight another day via the Charlotte TPE this summer. And yet, they could do much worse if they don't act now.

I think it's virtually impossible the Cs would MISS Walker. Really like the guy, love the heart and the hustle, the charges, etc. But his game is really the last thing the Cs need at this point.

[PhoSita]

Without Kemba, who is the third best scorer on this team?

Daniel Theis?  Payton Pritchard? 

Do you want to watch Marcus Smart as the third scoring option?

I don't want to watch this team minus a point guard who's a threat to score.  The offense as is pains me enough already.


Kemba has played 15 games this season.

In 9 of those games he's had a game score of 10 or better.  A Game Score of 10 is considered an "average" performance.

(https://www.nba.com/resources/static/team/v2/thunder/statlab-gamescore-191201.pdf)


In 7 of his 15 games, Kemba has shot under 40% from the field.  In 8 of the 15 games, he's shot below 36% from three.


Overall, it's a super small sample size.  It's also been fairly ugly a lot of the time.  But it's not like he's been a useless player.  Actually he's been fairly up and down. 

On the other hand, he's only had 3 really good games out of those 15.  That's a very bad ratio for a guy making max money who you rely upon to be one of your top scorers.  So it's easy to understand why it feels like he's been a total dumpster fire.


Before this season we have 5 straight seasons of evidence of Kemba averaging 20+ points per game at around 50% EFG. 

The knee issue is very concerning given Kemba's age, but I don't think it makes sense to assume that he's simply fallen off a cliff all at once.