What If Danny Really Was the Best GM in the World?

[gouki88]

No player Ainge has drafted in the teens has ever made an All-Star team. None.

Al Jefferson is the closest thing to a “star” Ainge ever selected in the teens. He was drafted in 2004.... 17 years ago.

Yep, Big Al made All-NBA.  He was a great pick.

I think you’re being too hard on the “teens” picks.  Danny has been hit or miss, which is what I expect in that range.

Hits:  Big Al, Rozier, Bradley, Olynyk

Misses: Yabu, Young, Gerald, Banks

Undecided: Langford, Nesmith

Did I forget any teens picks?  That’s four hits, four misses, and two incompletes.

Every one of those "hits" are questionable imo. What are or were those players?

Ultimately those players amounted to nothing, sure al landed us KG but the players themselves we're essentially nothing

Those hits are not at all questionable.

In 2004, the people drafted in the teens were Telfair, Kris Humphries, Kirk Snyder, Josh Smith, JR Smith and Dorrell Wright. Josh Smith is the only one of those guys who had a peak as good as Big Al.

In Rozier's draft the other teens picks were Booker, Payne, Oubre, Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker and Jerian Grant. Only Booker is better than Rozier of the teen picks.

In AB's draft the others were Ed Davis, Patrick Patterson, Larry Sanders, Luke Babbitt, Kevin Seraphin and Eric Bledsoe. Only Bledsoe is better than AB.

And finally, in KO's draft, the other teen picks were Shabazz, Giannis, Noguiera, Larkin, Schroder and Sergey Karasev. Only Giannis & Schroder are better than KO from those picks.

Draft evaluation has to take into account similar results from picks in the same period. Those guys weren't world-beaters as players, but as far as picks in the teens go they're darn good. They're just not Giannis or Kawhi good

[todd_days_41]

Draft evaluation has to take into account similar results from picks in the same period.

This “has to” statement is misguided. I think what you mean is you want it to be how he’s judged to fit your argument.

It doesn’t make it any better when an NBA GM misses on a guy by 20 picks than when he misses on such a player by less picks. The evaluation should be: did the team take the best player available with their pick? And Ainge’s % of success in this area should be higher considering how good he is at everything else.

Of course Ainge wasn’t going to nail the top player available on every pick in the teens. But Ainge has missed good available players pretty regularly, and it’s gotten worse over the course of his tenure, with Langford and Nesmith starting to show some shaky ground as well.

Here’s the last thing I’ll say about my initial statement here, then I’m gonna move on: based on his track record, if you could pick one micro-job for Ainge you needed him to nail by comparison to / in place of the average NBA GM, what would be lowest in the list?

Drafting in the Top 10? Nope — he’s done well there. Drafting at the end of the first round? Some good some bad — pretty average but fine (trading for Rondo was inspired). Drafting in the 2nd round? Nope — he’s done well there. In draft trades? Nope — he’s done quite well there, especially the exceptional Tatum deal. FA signings? Pretty impressive when you consider his predecessors rough track record here. And trades? He’s one of the best in history.

So I really don’t think it’s controversial to state that drafting in the middle of the 1st round has been area of relative weakness.

At least he’s nowhere near as bad at drafting players as Belichek, who as we all know could throw darts at a board and achieve better results.

[Moranis]

No player Ainge has drafted in the teens has ever made an All-Star team. None.

Al Jefferson is the closest thing to a “star” Ainge ever selected in the teens. He was drafted in 2004.... 17 years ago.

Yep, Big Al made All-NBA.  He was a great pick.

I think you’re being too hard on the “teens” picks.  Danny has been hit or miss, which is what I expect in that range.

Hits:  Big Al, Rozier, Bradley, Olynyk

Misses: Yabu, Young, Gerald, Banks

Undecided: Langford, Nesmith

Did I forget any teens picks?  That’s four hits, four misses, and two incompletes.

I don't now that I would call KO a hit.  He wasn't a miss, but in a redraft he probably goes a bit later than 13th.   

[Moranis]

Ainge is a very good GM, but he has struggled to pick a path since he made the KG/PP trade with the Nets.  He hasn't quite figured out what he wants to do.  Does he want to go all in on a youth movement, or does he want to try to win now.  He has tried to do both and that has really hampered both paths.  The Irving trade is a perfect example of this.  Trading for Irving wasn't the problem, it was trading for Irving and then not following up to add to Irving.  Like not taking the chance on Leonard is a perfect example of this.  Once he traded for Irving, he needed to follow it up and make the championship winning move.  I liken this to the Ray Allen trade.  Acquiring Irving was like acquiring Ray Allen.  That trade was a fine trade, but had he not then pulled the trigger on Garnett, Boston never would have won the title and would have essentially wasted a high draft pick to get the team somewhat close, but not close enough.  That is what he did when he acquired Irving and that is what has led to this being a nice fun team, but not one that is going to win the title as currently constructed.  I absolutely believe Boston would have at least made the Finals if not won the title had he acquired Leonard for essentially Brown.  Conversely, I absolutely believe Boston would be more likely to win a title right now had he not made the Irving trade at all because it would have had that additional top 10 pick and frankly may still have other valuable players on the team.  This indecision to fully commit has been the biggest issue I've had with Ainge the last 7 or 8 years.

I’m not sure this is fair.  Danny had a plan:  have a core of Kyrie / Hayward / Horford, and then use our young players and draft picks to add the final piece. 

Wasn’t Danny’s plan pretty clear?  He wanted Anthony Davis.  The Hayward injury and Kyrie flaking out ruined that, but it was pretty reasonable to expect a team of:

Horford
Davis
Hayward
Brown
Kyrie

That was the direction he picked.  It just didn’t work out.

Except when Kawhi was available, no one knew if Davis was even going to hit free agency.  The plan should have been add top 5ish talent.  When a top 5 talent became available, Ainge passed.  His indecision or waiting for something better, failed the team.  I firmly believe that.  If a plan is so focused on 1 player and only works with 1 player, that isn't a plan.

Kawhi was a one year rental.  If he had left after one year, and we lost Jaylin in the process, would you have been cool with that?

Maybe Kawhi is a one year rental.  Maybe he isn't.  I remember everyone saying that George was going to be a rental and re-signed in Oklahoma City to play with Russell Westbrook.  Think about that for a second.  This notion that players leaving are foregone conclusions just isn't borne in reality.  He certainly could have left after one year, but had Boston won the title, it would have been worth it.  And perhaps just the move of acquiring Leonard, makes Irving or even Davis think about the C's differently. 

I stand by my statement, that Ainge never should have acquired Irving if he wasn't willing to pull the trigger on the follow-up trade to pair Irving with a top 5 guy.  It absolutely would have been the same thing as acquiring Ray Allen, but refusing to part with Jefferson and never acquiring Garnett.