The ff is speculation but I think are also highly plausible scenarios that could help explain why some events happened, without going off the rails:
PRIOR TO OPT OUT
- Hayward and his agent probably knew there were offers early on (Knicks, Charlotte, Indy, C’s, Hawks, etc.) but likely nothing that blew him away. $34/1yr is still a lot to leave on the table, especially if there are only offers like 15-18M waiting for you.
- Hayward likely tho wanted to go to Indy and could have likely been nego-ing thru his agent. The few extra days the C’s agreed to extend the deadline was probably a courtesy to him. I think DA knew early on too that GH was already exploring
POST-OPT OUT
- on the 19th, Indy and Hayward wrapped up nego’s and settled on 100/4yr. It was now a matter of how to get Hayward there. Pretty much all the leaks come out (contract, etc) shortly too.
- other teams were likely informed too beforehand. When did the Hawks start signing people? And when did the Knicks admit they were likely out of the running? Was it just before all the serious Hayward-Indy news broke?
- C’s and Pacers start nego-ing. I think DA was fairly comfy negotiating this deal, especially post-opt out. In hindsight, he probably didn’t want to take back Turner and he didn’t mind if GH returned at 100/4. What would change his mind is getting something he actually wanted in return (Dipo/Warren). So, win-win for him
TALKS STALLED
- the talks stalled likely because the Pacers were unwilling to budge either
- I’m sure it was also laid out to GH that his best financial option might end up being back in Boston for 100/4 if the Pacers deal didn’t happen
- Hayward probably expressed frustration thru his agent (or his agent let other teams know that talks had stalled). Point is, it leaked that talks weren’t moving
- I think at this point, Charlotte made their move. I don’t know if GH’s agent triggered Charlotte or if someone in the Charlotte FO triggered a “plan B” type scenario but whatever it was, I think it was only after the talks stalled when all this happened
- I have to believe that Charlotte’s offer was always on the table but that it also likely wasn’t 120M.
- I think Charlotte had this scenario prepared and had the number they figured would push the C’s into luxury tax, betting that the C’s wouldn’t venture into that territory, especially with Tatum’s impending max
- Charlotte vs Boston at the same price, GH might’ve been indecisive. But Charlotte at a significant salary increase was likely a no-brainer for him