Poll

Would you make this trade

Yes
19 (20%)
No
67 (70.5%)
Yes without pick, or lesser pick
9 (9.5%)

Total Members Voted: 95

Author Topic: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose  (Read 27106 times)

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Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #135 on: January 23, 2020, 01:58:02 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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If the Celts are so effective in their small ball lineup then why are the Celts just the 4th best team in the east right now?

Just because you don't like what I'm saying it doesn't mean I'm spamming!
They have the third best point differential in the league and have the third most wins below what you'd expect given their point differential and schedule.

So I'd say they're fourth in the east because they've lost a bunch of games of all-star caliber players to injury and also a couple teams hit 70% of their shots against us over a couple of halves. Their underlying performance is indicative of a very good team.

Is Miami clearly superior to the Cs because they've gone 8-0 in OT games? (one possession games are coin flips even for the best of teams and Miami has forced some insane OTs via crazy endings)

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #136 on: January 23, 2020, 01:58:08 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Because they don't need him to play more than 20 min/game when they also have Theis or the ability to throw an effective small ball lineup out there.
Yup. And Kanter isn't some sort of clear great player whom you give 30 MPG. He's a good role player who has a specific weakness and strength that you try and put in good positions.

The thing is, I don't think Drummond is a clear great player you want on the court 30+ MPG either.

That's what you think.

We'll never know for sure.

Take the case of Ainge trading for IT at the trade deadline in 2015.

Celts were lottery bound before the IT trade.
Then IT suddenly turned things around for the Celts.
Celts ended up making the playoffs and IT, not only became a starter, he was a top 5 MVP candidate in 2017.

Right now if what some Celtic fans here are saying is true, that the Celts are not real contenders, we'll just end up seeing the Celts exit in the 2nd round of the playoffs this season.

But if the Celts get Drummond, we won't know for sure what will happen.

That's why it's a gamble.

I'd rather gamble than standing pat and just accepting the Celts will not be playing in June.
What did Ainge give up for IT? Is that comparable to Hayward? Also does Drummond look like the player who could pop if given a different role? Those are the questions you should ask yourself, I'm skeptical he'd suddenly become a high level player in a lesser role on the C's

As for the, "you think stuff" yes that's what I think? The future is indeed unknowable, but I don't think that means you should through caution to the wind and shake the snow globe up just to see what happens.

Last season Toronto gave up assets, including their best player, DeRozan, for a rental of Kawhi.

It resulted in a championship.

Toronto gave up a lot even if they knew there was a big chance Kawhi would leave after one season.

Losing Hayward is not that a big of a deal because the Celts already have Tatum and Brown and Hayward is damaged goods.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #137 on: January 23, 2020, 01:59:12 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Man its a bad time to be a height fetishist as a NBA fan. League isn't going your way.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #138 on: January 23, 2020, 01:59:57 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Wait wait wait, you think DeMar freaking benched in the playoffs DeRozen was better than Kyle Lowry? Okay I'm done here.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #139 on: January 23, 2020, 02:00:56 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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If the Celts are so effective in their small ball lineup then why are the Celts just the 4th best team in the east right now?

Just because you don't like what I'm saying it doesn't mean I'm spamming!
They have the third best point differential in the league and have the third most wins below what you'd expect given their point differential and schedule.

So I'd say they're fourth in the east because they've lost a bunch of games of all-star caliber players to injury and also a couple teams hit 70% of their shots against us over a couple of halves. Their underlying performance is indicative of a very good team.

Is Miami clearly superior to the Cs because they've gone 8-0 in OT games? (one possession games are coin flips even for the best of teams and Miami has forced some insane OTs via crazy endings)

Here's the question, does questioning the effectivity of the Celts' small ball lineup equate to spamming?

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #140 on: January 23, 2020, 02:02:27 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I have no doubt that Drummond would eat up a ton of boards for this team. He would be like a super charged Kanter who can pass and is more mobile defensively. On top of that he has a bit of vertical gravity that Kanter does not. Unfortunately I agree with many of the posters before me that I'm not sure he's worth 28 million. Also an issue is that he can opt out at the end of the year to explore the market and possibly get more (not sure he will.)

Let's assume that his cap hit is the same going forward, he would have to be one of our 3 most productive players on both sides of the ball for us to have a shot. The game is continuously trending towards players who are able to dynamically impact the game, and that isn't Drummond.

The argument is that we are in the same situation with Hayward, and while that's fair, would trading Hayward be worth the optics? We have just gotten over the league wide perception that free agents don't want to come here (regardless of the validity of that perception.) We also are giving up a swing of the bat in the back end of the lottery in a weak draft (that doesn't bother me as much.)

Long story short, I'm not sure Drummond is the dominant big man we want to hitch our horse to going forward.

Here's the thing, Hayward is damaged goods and he will most likely opt in next season at 34m.
That means the Celts' total salary will be closer to 140m.

If the Celts remove Hayward's contract, the Celts' total salary next season will be around 100m.

This is where swapping Hayward's contract for Drummond's contract helps the Celts.
Not only will it give us a chance to see how Drummond fits in with the Celts, it will also only cost the Celts around 29m next season if Drummond doesn't opt out.

Worst case scenario is Drummond doesn't fit in and he opts out.
That will put the Celts under the salary cap, which means the Celts will be able sign someone from the free-agent market.


I think gambling on Drummond for half a season and the playoffs is worth the risk.

Celts will never be able to sign Drummond as a free-agent if the Celts don't get him now.

The Celts will be able to address the need for a big man, in the summer of 2020, if the Celts have flexibility.

Celts will not have the cap flexibility if Hayward is still with the Celts next season.

The result will be having the same team this year for next year, plus the 2020 draft picks.

Not a good idea to wait until Hayward's contract is off the books, in 2021, to start building a championship team.

Are we really going to be under the cap? I assume with Tatum needing to be signed to a bigger contract, you lose all the “cap space”. But I’m no cap expert. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
Yes, and not really.

In a one on one trade of Hayward and Drummond, if Drummond decides to move on, and Kanter moves on and the Celtics don't bring back Theis and Semi and Green and they trade away all their draft picks for future picks that would give the team about $21.8 million with only

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Smart
RWilliams
GWilliams
Edwards
Langford
Poirier

and the room exception of $4.9 million and vet min contracts to fill out the team.

Now if they keep the 3 picks reduce cap space by $5-7 million depending on where the Memphis, Milwaukee and Boston picks land but add in $2.7 million to the cap space because you are getting rid of the empty roster slot holds. (So total cut from above cap number is $2.3-4.3 million.

If they keep Theis, because, you need at the very least one guy that can slot in as a back up or starting big, reduce that cap space another $5 million.

If Tremont Waters is going to be signed then reduce the cap another $900000

What you end up with is a number not all that much higher than the non-tax payer MLE which you can have plus the bi annual exception and Hayward and Semi and Green, if you just don't make the trade.

You said the Celts are not contenders right now.
That's why you think Ainge will stand pat because it's after the season that Ainge should make trades.

But if Hayward remains then the Celts will basically have the same team from this season to next season.

As long as the core 5 remains intact, Ainge will not be able to do anything significant.

So we'll just waste another year and see the Celts exit in the playoffs again?

Trading Hayward now will open up more opportunities for the Celts.
Not sure what this response is to since I was discussing with Lilrip that the Celtics won't really have any more cap space flexibility whether Hayward is on the roster or not. He asked a question because he thought you were misleading him. I just gave him some facts is all.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #141 on: January 23, 2020, 02:04:09 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Wait wait wait, you think DeMar freaking benched in the playoffs DeRozen was better than Kyle Lowry? Okay I'm done here.

Benched in the playoffs?

DeRozan averaged 36.2 minutes per game in the 1st round of the 2018 playoffs.

In the 2nd round against the Cavs, where the Raptors got swept, DeRozan averaged 34 minutes per game.

DeRozan averaged 35.4 minutes per game in the playoffs that year.
35 minutes a game is being benched?

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #142 on: January 23, 2020, 02:06:44 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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I have no doubt that Drummond would eat up a ton of boards for this team. He would be like a super charged Kanter who can pass and is more mobile defensively. On top of that he has a bit of vertical gravity that Kanter does not. Unfortunately I agree with many of the posters before me that I'm not sure he's worth 28 million. Also an issue is that he can opt out at the end of the year to explore the market and possibly get more (not sure he will.)

Let's assume that his cap hit is the same going forward, he would have to be one of our 3 most productive players on both sides of the ball for us to have a shot. The game is continuously trending towards players who are able to dynamically impact the game, and that isn't Drummond.

The argument is that we are in the same situation with Hayward, and while that's fair, would trading Hayward be worth the optics? We have just gotten over the league wide perception that free agents don't want to come here (regardless of the validity of that perception.) We also are giving up a swing of the bat in the back end of the lottery in a weak draft (that doesn't bother me as much.)

Long story short, I'm not sure Drummond is the dominant big man we want to hitch our horse to going forward.

Here's the thing, Hayward is damaged goods and he will most likely opt in next season at 34m.
That means the Celts' total salary will be closer to 140m.

If the Celts remove Hayward's contract, the Celts' total salary next season will be around 100m.

This is where swapping Hayward's contract for Drummond's contract helps the Celts.
Not only will it give us a chance to see how Drummond fits in with the Celts, it will also only cost the Celts around 29m next season if Drummond doesn't opt out.

Worst case scenario is Drummond doesn't fit in and he opts out.
That will put the Celts under the salary cap, which means the Celts will be able sign someone from the free-agent market.


I think gambling on Drummond for half a season and the playoffs is worth the risk.

Celts will never be able to sign Drummond as a free-agent if the Celts don't get him now.

The Celts will be able to address the need for a big man, in the summer of 2020, if the Celts have flexibility.

Celts will not have the cap flexibility if Hayward is still with the Celts next season.

The result will be having the same team this year for next year, plus the 2020 draft picks.

Not a good idea to wait until Hayward's contract is off the books, in 2021, to start building a championship team.

Are we really going to be under the cap? I assume with Tatum needing to be signed to a bigger contract, you lose all the “cap space”. But I’m no cap expert. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
Yes, and not really.

In a one on one trade of Hayward and Drummond, if Drummond decides to move on, and Kanter moves on and the Celtics don't bring back Theis and Semi and Green and they trade away all their draft picks for future picks that would give the team about $21.8 million with only

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Smart
RWilliams
GWilliams
Edwards
Langford
Poirier

and the room exception of $4.9 million and vet min contracts to fill out the team.

Now if they keep the 3 picks reduce cap space by $5-7 million depending on where the Memphis, Milwaukee and Boston picks land but add in $2.7 million to the cap space because you are getting rid of the empty roster slot holds. (So total cut from above cap number is $2.3-4.3 million.

If they keep Theis, because, you need at the very least one guy that can slot in as a back up or starting big, reduce that cap space another $5 million.

If Tremont Waters is going to be signed then reduce the cap another $900000

What you end up with is a number not all that much higher than the non-tax payer MLE which you can have plus the bi annual exception and Hayward and Semi and Green, if you just don't make the trade.

You said the Celts are not contenders right now.
That's why you think Ainge will stand pat because it's after the season that Ainge should make trades.

But if Hayward remains then the Celts will basically have the same team from this season to next season.

As long as the core 5 remains intact, Ainge will not be able to do anything significant.

So we'll just waste another year and see the Celts exit in the playoffs again?

Trading Hayward now will open up more opportunities for the Celts.
Not sure what this response is to since I was discussing with Lilrip that the Celtics won't really have any more cap space flexibility whether Hayward is on the roster or not. He asked a question because he thought you were misleading him. I just gave him some facts is all.

What I'm saying is if the Celts don't move Hayward and stand pat, the Celts will be getting the same team for next season.

Moving Hayward now opens up more opportunities for the Celts in the summer, even if it's possible that the Celts might not get that big cap space because the Celts might still end up keeping Theis.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #143 on: January 23, 2020, 02:14:12 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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Man its a bad time to be a height fetishist as a NBA fan. League isn't going your way.

#1 team in the east C - Brook Lopez and PF Giannis.
Backup Center Robin Lopez.

#1 team in the west C - McGee and PF Anthony Davis.
Backup Center Dwight Howard.

Is it just by accident that those teams ended up with tall players?

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #144 on: January 23, 2020, 02:14:29 PM »

Online Who

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What I'm saying is if the Celts don't move Hayward and stand pat, the Celts will be getting the same team for next season.
Not necessarily. We got a lot of young guys who are still improving so internal development is a big factor that could change this team's outlook despite the roster not changing much.

Star youth - Tatum and Jaylen
Role player youth - Rob Williams, Carsen Edwards, Romeo Langford, Grant Williams

Rob Williams could become a Capela like figure for the team in another year's time (assuming he stay healthy). Edwards can be the new Eddie House and shore up the backup guard minutes alongside Smart. Grant Williams' role will depend on how good his outside shooting can get in order to play more PF minutes. Romeo Langford can give Boston a legit wing so they can keep those 3 wing lineups on the floor for more minutes while one of Hayward, Jaylen or Tatum rest on the bench.

Maybe 1-2 of those role player youths work out. Maybe none of them. But there is a good chance for improvement out of those guys and still lots of room for improvement with Tatum and Jaylen Brown. And with that - a chance for the team's prospects to improve.

Also a chance Boston could make a smaller free agency move and net a player like Willy Cauley Stein like Golden State did last summer on a budget move. Reinforce the center position that way. Not star talent but someone solid that has legit size. Or a smaller trade involving picks / young role player talent to net a solid center in a trade while keeping the 5 core members in tact (which I am by no means tied to ...)

I am just saying there is a lot of room for development & improvement next season without changing the core of the team.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #145 on: January 23, 2020, 02:16:39 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I have no doubt that Drummond would eat up a ton of boards for this team. He would be like a super charged Kanter who can pass and is more mobile defensively. On top of that he has a bit of vertical gravity that Kanter does not. Unfortunately I agree with many of the posters before me that I'm not sure he's worth 28 million. Also an issue is that he can opt out at the end of the year to explore the market and possibly get more (not sure he will.)

Let's assume that his cap hit is the same going forward, he would have to be one of our 3 most productive players on both sides of the ball for us to have a shot. The game is continuously trending towards players who are able to dynamically impact the game, and that isn't Drummond.

The argument is that we are in the same situation with Hayward, and while that's fair, would trading Hayward be worth the optics? We have just gotten over the league wide perception that free agents don't want to come here (regardless of the validity of that perception.) We also are giving up a swing of the bat in the back end of the lottery in a weak draft (that doesn't bother me as much.)

Long story short, I'm not sure Drummond is the dominant big man we want to hitch our horse to going forward.

Here's the thing, Hayward is damaged goods and he will most likely opt in next season at 34m.
That means the Celts' total salary will be closer to 140m.

If the Celts remove Hayward's contract, the Celts' total salary next season will be around 100m.

This is where swapping Hayward's contract for Drummond's contract helps the Celts.
Not only will it give us a chance to see how Drummond fits in with the Celts, it will also only cost the Celts around 29m next season if Drummond doesn't opt out.

Worst case scenario is Drummond doesn't fit in and he opts out.
That will put the Celts under the salary cap, which means the Celts will be able sign someone from the free-agent market.


I think gambling on Drummond for half a season and the playoffs is worth the risk.

Celts will never be able to sign Drummond as a free-agent if the Celts don't get him now.

The Celts will be able to address the need for a big man, in the summer of 2020, if the Celts have flexibility.

Celts will not have the cap flexibility if Hayward is still with the Celts next season.

The result will be having the same team this year for next year, plus the 2020 draft picks.

Not a good idea to wait until Hayward's contract is off the books, in 2021, to start building a championship team.

Are we really going to be under the cap? I assume with Tatum needing to be signed to a bigger contract, you lose all the “cap space”. But I’m no cap expert. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
Yes, and not really.

In a one on one trade of Hayward and Drummond, if Drummond decides to move on, and Kanter moves on and the Celtics don't bring back Theis and Semi and Green and they trade away all their draft picks for future picks that would give the team about $21.8 million with only

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Smart
RWilliams
GWilliams
Edwards
Langford
Poirier

and the room exception of $4.9 million and vet min contracts to fill out the team.

Now if they keep the 3 picks reduce cap space by $5-7 million depending on where the Memphis, Milwaukee and Boston picks land but add in $2.7 million to the cap space because you are getting rid of the empty roster slot holds. (So total cut from above cap number is $2.3-4.3 million.

If they keep Theis, because, you need at the very least one guy that can slot in as a back up or starting big, reduce that cap space another $5 million.

If Tremont Waters is going to be signed then reduce the cap another $900000

What you end up with is a number not all that much higher than the non-tax payer MLE which you can have plus the bi annual exception and Hayward and Semi and Green, if you just don't make the trade.

You said the Celts are not contenders right now.
That's why you think Ainge will stand pat because it's after the season that Ainge should make trades.

But if Hayward remains then the Celts will basically have the same team from this season to next season.

As long as the core 5 remains intact, Ainge will not be able to do anything significant.

So we'll just waste another year and see the Celts exit in the playoffs again?

Trading Hayward now will open up more opportunities for the Celts.
Not sure what this response is to since I was discussing with Lilrip that the Celtics won't really have any more cap space flexibility whether Hayward is on the roster or not. He asked a question because he thought you were misleading him. I just gave him some facts is all.

What I'm saying is if the Celts don't move Hayward and stand pat, the Celts will be getting the same team for next season.

Moving Hayward now opens up more opportunities for the Celts in the summer, even if it's possible that the Celts might not get that big cap space because the Celts might still end up keeping Theis.
You already admitted that Brown and Tatum would be better. By just that, they won't be the same team next year.

Langford and the Williams boys will probably be better, too. Waters will be here full time. There might be a late lottery pick on the team as well. That makes the team a different team right there.


Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #146 on: January 23, 2020, 02:18:51 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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What I'm saying is if the Celts don't move Hayward and stand pat, the Celts will be getting the same team for next season.
Not necessarily. We got a lot of young guys who are still improving so internal development is a big factor that could change this team's outlook despite the roster not changing much.

Star youth - Tatum and Jaylen
Role player youth - Rob Williams, Carsen Edwards, Romeo Langford, Grant Williams

Rob Williams could become a Capela like figure for the team in another year's time (assuming he stay healthy). Edwards can be the new Eddie House and shore up the backup guard minutes alongside Smart. Grant Williams' role will depend on how good his outside shooting can get in order to play more PF minutes. Romeo Langford can give Boston a legit wing so they can keep those 3 wing lineups on the floor for more minutes while one of Hayward, Jaylen or Tatum rest on the bench.

Maybe 1-2 of those role player youths work out. Maybe none of them. But there is a good chance for improvement out of those guys and still lots of room for improvement with Tatum and Jaylen Brown. And with that - a chance for the team's prospects to improve.

Also a chance Boston could make a smaller free agency move and net a player like Willy Cauley Stein like Golden State did last summer on a budget move. Reinforce the center position that way. Not star talent but someone solid that has legit size. Or a smaller trade involving picks / young role player talent to net a solid center in a trade while keeping the 5 core members in tact (which I am by no means tied to ...)

I am just saying there is a lot of room for development & improvement next season without changing the core of the team.

I agree if the Celts didn't sign Kemba.

Hard to believe Ainge used words like development and improvement to lure Kemba to come to Boston.

I truly believe the Celts are in a win now situation.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #147 on: January 23, 2020, 02:21:07 PM »

Offline Hoopvortex

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Stats don't tell the whole story.

If Celts are so good with Hayward then why is the Celtic record just 16-10 when Hayward is playing?

This may get mis-interpreted by some as blaming Smart, but ... well, unfortunately there have been several games where we played Smart and Hayward together a lot due to injuries to Jaylen and/or Kemba.  And unfortunately, the effect up above gets neutralized somewhat when Hayward plays with Smart because Smart handles the ball a lot.   In fact, with Smart on the floor with Hayward, the team plays somewhat worse on offense.

Kemba, Jaylen & Jayson all defer to Gordon a ton for playmaking.  But with Smart, Brad has him handle the ball because he is less effective as a 'space-maker' without the ball.  Teams like the Bucks notoriously sag way off of Marcus unless he has the ball.  So this forces Hayward into the corner as a spot-up shooter and negates much of his play-making.

Just watching this current game right now against MEM, with Jaylen out, and Smart moved up to the starting lineup, we see the same effect.  The starters struggled to generate offense out of the gate.  What little they did was off Hayward (4 assists already before the end of the 1st) but the ball spending too much time in other people's hands.

This team needs to be healthy and with everyone in their proper role.   

Important - please don't take this post as a knock against Smart.  I love Marcus and he's super valuable to this team.  But he and Gordon don't mix optimally on offense.  I like Smart best when he's the playmaker for the bench.

Interesting take, as always. And I do think that you’re seeing something real. But color me skeptical about your conclusion; and whatever it is that you’re looking at, the sample size isn’t big enough (that’s a caveat, not a refutation).

Consider:

1) Smart’s Usage is only 17.9%;

2) There are two distinct kinds of lineups when Smart and Hayward have appeared together: with Kemba and without, meaning when Marcus isn’t the primary ballhandler, and when he is.  The offensive performance of those two groups of lineups is very different.

a) The most often used lineup with those two together also has Kemba:  Walker-Smart-Tatum-Hayward-Theis. That one has played together 75.9 minutes, and has an offensive efficiency of 1.11 (defensive 1.01).

b) The second and third most often used lineups with those two together does not have Kemba:  i) Smart-Brown-Tatum-Hayward-Theis. That one has played together 43.4 minutes, and has an offensive efficiency of .99 (defensive 1.12); and ii) Smart-Brown-Tatum-Hayward-Kanter. That one has played together 19.1 minutes, and has an offensive efficiency of  0.95    (defensive 1.08).

c) The fourth most often used lineup with those two together also has Kemba:  Walker-Smart-Brown-Tatum-Hayward. That one has played together 12.4 minutes, and has a stellar offensive efficiency of 1.24 (defensive 1.00).

That last one has a minuscule sample size, but in fact none of these four represents a lot of possessions.

The point is clear enough. Smart/Hayward, apparently, is an excellent offensive pairing, as long as there is a point guard in the lineup along with them (or maybe only as long as Walker is with them, or...). I offer this to you with a grain of salt.
'I was proud of Marcus Smart. He did a great job of keeping us together. He might not get credit for this game, but the pace that he played at, and his playcalling, some of the plays that he called were great. We obviously have to rely on him, so I’m definitely looking forward to Marcus leading this team in that role.' - Jaylen Brown, January 2021

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #148 on: January 23, 2020, 02:22:25 PM »

Offline BackDoorCut

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Let's just take Vernon carey jr with the memphis pick. and keep gordon.

Re: Poll: Hayward Memphis pick for Drummond and Rose
« Reply #149 on: January 23, 2020, 02:22:33 PM »

Offline Fierce1

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I have no doubt that Drummond would eat up a ton of boards for this team. He would be like a super charged Kanter who can pass and is more mobile defensively. On top of that he has a bit of vertical gravity that Kanter does not. Unfortunately I agree with many of the posters before me that I'm not sure he's worth 28 million. Also an issue is that he can opt out at the end of the year to explore the market and possibly get more (not sure he will.)

Let's assume that his cap hit is the same going forward, he would have to be one of our 3 most productive players on both sides of the ball for us to have a shot. The game is continuously trending towards players who are able to dynamically impact the game, and that isn't Drummond.

The argument is that we are in the same situation with Hayward, and while that's fair, would trading Hayward be worth the optics? We have just gotten over the league wide perception that free agents don't want to come here (regardless of the validity of that perception.) We also are giving up a swing of the bat in the back end of the lottery in a weak draft (that doesn't bother me as much.)

Long story short, I'm not sure Drummond is the dominant big man we want to hitch our horse to going forward.

Here's the thing, Hayward is damaged goods and he will most likely opt in next season at 34m.
That means the Celts' total salary will be closer to 140m.

If the Celts remove Hayward's contract, the Celts' total salary next season will be around 100m.

This is where swapping Hayward's contract for Drummond's contract helps the Celts.
Not only will it give us a chance to see how Drummond fits in with the Celts, it will also only cost the Celts around 29m next season if Drummond doesn't opt out.

Worst case scenario is Drummond doesn't fit in and he opts out.
That will put the Celts under the salary cap, which means the Celts will be able sign someone from the free-agent market.


I think gambling on Drummond for half a season and the playoffs is worth the risk.

Celts will never be able to sign Drummond as a free-agent if the Celts don't get him now.

The Celts will be able to address the need for a big man, in the summer of 2020, if the Celts have flexibility.

Celts will not have the cap flexibility if Hayward is still with the Celts next season.

The result will be having the same team this year for next year, plus the 2020 draft picks.

Not a good idea to wait until Hayward's contract is off the books, in 2021, to start building a championship team.

Are we really going to be under the cap? I assume with Tatum needing to be signed to a bigger contract, you lose all the “cap space”. But I’m no cap expert. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.
Yes, and not really.

In a one on one trade of Hayward and Drummond, if Drummond decides to move on, and Kanter moves on and the Celtics don't bring back Theis and Semi and Green and they trade away all their draft picks for future picks that would give the team about $21.8 million with only

Kemba
Brown
Tatum
Smart
RWilliams
GWilliams
Edwards
Langford
Poirier

and the room exception of $4.9 million and vet min contracts to fill out the team.

Now if they keep the 3 picks reduce cap space by $5-7 million depending on where the Memphis, Milwaukee and Boston picks land but add in $2.7 million to the cap space because you are getting rid of the empty roster slot holds. (So total cut from above cap number is $2.3-4.3 million.

If they keep Theis, because, you need at the very least one guy that can slot in as a back up or starting big, reduce that cap space another $5 million.

If Tremont Waters is going to be signed then reduce the cap another $900000

What you end up with is a number not all that much higher than the non-tax payer MLE which you can have plus the bi annual exception and Hayward and Semi and Green, if you just don't make the trade.

You said the Celts are not contenders right now.
That's why you think Ainge will stand pat because it's after the season that Ainge should make trades.

But if Hayward remains then the Celts will basically have the same team from this season to next season.

As long as the core 5 remains intact, Ainge will not be able to do anything significant.

So we'll just waste another year and see the Celts exit in the playoffs again?

Trading Hayward now will open up more opportunities for the Celts.
Not sure what this response is to since I was discussing with Lilrip that the Celtics won't really have any more cap space flexibility whether Hayward is on the roster or not. He asked a question because he thought you were misleading him. I just gave him some facts is all.

What I'm saying is if the Celts don't move Hayward and stand pat, the Celts will be getting the same team for next season.

Moving Hayward now opens up more opportunities for the Celts in the summer, even if it's possible that the Celts might not get that big cap space because the Celts might still end up keeping Theis.
You already admitted that Brown and Tatum would be better. By just that, they won't be the same team next year.

Langford and the Williams boys will probably be better, too. Waters will be here full time. There might be a late lottery pick on the team as well. That makes the team a different team right there.

What I mean by the same team is the Celts will still end up having Theis and Kanter at Center.

The problem will still remain, the Celts will still need a big man.

Right now Drummond and Steven Adams are available.

Next season there might be no big man available.