Danny Ainge excuses and lack of trades(merged threads)

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Tell me what bigs that Brad has ever underplayed that deserved minute. Just a couple. This whole "Brad doesn't play big" narrative is stupid. He can't play what he doesn't have on the roster.

Greg Monroe perhaps?

Brad has the opposite problem, he plays under size line-ups too much giving away mismatches he and loves doing this in the late third quarter.

Monroe was out of the league the next season. Don't think he was deserving.

And aren't we dominating 3rd quarters this year? I don't know where to look up those stats, but I remember hearing in a game that the Cs outscore opponents by a ton in the 3rd.

[ETNCeltics]

What is it that Ainge needs an excuse for? That our big men are some of the most effective in the league, apart from the Embiid/Jokich/Freak level players? Some of you are dying to fix a problem that doesn't exist.

Most of the time when we come up short, it's not because our team is too short. It's because we've played shoddy unenergetic defense, and/or 2 or more of our 4 stars have had a terrible night shooting. Or in a few cases, we've lost because too many of our best players are hurt.

[OldSchoolDude]

Here's a more objective approach: rank each player by win shares in their draft class. It's not perfect but it's better than opinions, which is all we've gotten so far.


I'll throw out top 10 picks to be consistent with the post above. You'll see the player's name, their draft position, and their WS rank in the class, followed by "OVER" or "UNDER" perform. I'll call it "EVEN if the rank is +/- 1 slot.

Also looking at 10 years of history.

2017: Rob Williams, 27 (21), OVER
2017: Semi Ojeleye, 37 (25), OVER
2017: Kadeem Allen, 53 (36), OVER
2017: Jabari Bird, 56 (46), OVER
2016: Ante Zizic, 23 (24), EVEN
2016: Abdel Nader, 58 (30), OVER
2016: Guerschon Yabusele, 31 (16), UNDER
2016: Demetrius Jackson, 45 (38), OVER
2016: Ben Bentil, 51 (50), EVEN
2015: Terry Rozier, 16 (12), OVER
2015: Jordan Mickey, 33 (36), UNDER
2015: RJ Hunter, 28 (38), UNDER
2015: Marcus Thornton, EVEN (never played but drafted in a slot where never playing is the norm for that year)
2014: James Young, 17 (37), UNDER
2013: Kelly Olynyk, 13 (8 ), OVER
2012: Jared Sullinger 21 (19), OVER
2012: Fab Melo, 22 (48), UNDER
2012: Kris Joseph, 50 (51), EVEN
2011: ETwuan Moore, 55 (22), OVER
2011: JaJuan Johnson, 27 (45), UNDER
2010: Avery Bradley 19 (15), OVER
2010: Luke Harangody, 52 (31), OVER
2009: Lester Hudson 58 (45), OVER
2008: Semih Erden 60 (37), OVER
2008: JR Giddens, 30 (45), UNDER

So what does this leave us with?

UNDER: 7
OVER: 14
EVEN: 4

These are great numbers: Ainge drafts guys that outperform their draft slot twice as often as he drafts guys that underperforms.

You could do these using different metrics, but I doubt you'll see too much difference in the overall conclusion. The claim that Ainge is a terrible drafter is just 100% wrong. Because this is a zero-sum method, for every pick he makes that outperforms, there must be a GM out there who's underperforming.

For what it's worth I had done another one of these several years back, going all the way back to Ainge's beginning with the organization, and you see the same thing. There are just a handful of guys who are arguably better than him. (Rondo is the best #21 pick EVER, unless you want to put Michael Finley above him, and Al Jefferson is one of the 5 best picks at his slot as well.)

I can't see into other people's heads, but I suspect that a lot of the knee-jerk thinking about this comes from one thing: not understanding exactly how few players at any draft slot end up being legit NBA players, much less stars. That's probably a salience effect: we remember Giannis as a 15 pick, but forget that the typical player in that range is someone like Adriean Payne, or Kelly Oubre, or Royce White, or Lucas Noguiera, or Shabazz Mohammad...

I think the only way to really get a sense for that is by spending time looking at the drafts, going back years.

This is very flawed methodology. I have gone in more depth of what Danny has done in the middle of the draft and came away with him being behind all his peers like morey and Buford .
I am not sure why the over of his picks in the 40-60 should count as anything as those guys didn’t really do much and their WS have more to do with them getting spot minutes on a good team.
You also fail to recognize how bad the unders are. The 7 under that you identified are historically bad in their draft range by almost all metrics.

You haven't presented a single hard fact to back up your statements. You don't like my method? Fine, you pick one. Gather some data, justify the method and show us the results. Otherwise you'll continue to come off as someone spouting unfounded nonsense.

And by the way my analysis above is hardly a "very flawed methodology." It's a logically founded, simple method. You can do it other ways, sure. There are drawbacks to any one method, sure. But until you present an alternative, you've brought nothing of value to the discussion.

PS There are plenty of other analyses out there too, using different methods and covering different periods, and nearly all of them rate Danny as above average. You can find them on your own if you want to.

I sent you a PM. Well here is the problem with your methodology:
Marcus Thornton selected at 46 or whatever is even... I understand that ranking on WS but:
You included a few players selected after 46 ... they are basically guaranteed to be over and I agree ( Nader and etawn Moore have been good value for their draft slot)... all those late picks guaranteed to be over is because there are plenty of horrible picks in the middle of the draft and unfortunately Danny accounts for quite a few of those.

Can you present a better methodology?

Also lol at the emboldened. How?

Everyone at the bottom is either bad or outperforming their draft slot (since there's a floor on how badly you can do). So if you discount all picks who play poorly as just living up to their draft spot, and players that outperform the same as other players that outperform, you'll introduce bias.

I don't think it's more bias than basing you methodology on 1. starting the year after Ainge's best pick (Rondo), 2. only counting picks better than Ainge's best in that period (Avery Bradley) as good picks (actually "borderline all stars"), and 3. removing the sections of the draft (lottery and 2nd round) where Ainge did best, but it's bias nonetheless.

I will make the methodology more intuitive and presentable. I do believe Danny’s analytics team is missing something in their drafting predictive models. Obviously I can’t tell what the issue is but something is partly to blame for the bad picks since 2007 or since big tech like apple Facebook and google changed the way we live.
Other teams started drafting better while Celtics regressed.

What other teams?? Name more than 3

Rockets , spurs , nuggets with and without Ujiri, I would add Miami  and maybe thunder and blazers

So four and two maybes out of 29 other clubs and somehow Danny is bad compared to his peers?
 
You can see how this is not adding up right?

His peers are GMs that have the same longevity as him in the field not the suns or knicks GMs etc. I know what I’m talking about and I am almost always right 

If you select only the GMs who've been running teams for 10+ years, you are comparing him to the most successful ones in the league. It's selection bias. Even if he's average in that group he's way above average in the league.

And even there, ok, you mention the Nuggets, who've made one great 2nd round pick in Jokic. Since then they have drafted these guys in the 2nd round:

Thomas Welsh
Vlatko Cancar
Monte Morris
Petr Cornelie
Nikola Radicevic

Lot of home runs there...if you want to contend in the Greek B league.

And on their 1st rounders, they have one recent solid hit (Murray). They have one huge bust (Mudiay). McDermott for Harris was a good trade.

But they also have made two of the worst draft day trades in recent NBA history: trading away Donovan Mitchell for Trey Lyles and a pick in 2017, and also trading away Rudy Gobert in 2013 for a 2nd rounder.

Seriously now...you rank that as great? Trading away draft rights to a DPOY and a perennial 25/4/4 guy for basically nothing?

TP from me. A huge element of ranking a GM's drafting is definitely their draft-day trading, and Denver is one of the worst for that, whereas Danny is one of the best. The Rondo & Tatum trades are examples of this.

I would say more draft day trading means that GMs are very confident in their rankings and think they know which are the targets of of other  GMs picking around where they pick.
I was going to comment on his draft day trading :
Can’t remember if rondo was draft day or not but that’s a good one.
JaJuan plus etawn for brooks - good because somehow he got the best player out of it.. he could have bought the 55 pick for $200K... also he let Moore go for some reason
16 pick plus a second rounder to draft KO??? I know giannis was unknown but he scouted him and he has drafted for upside so many times... why didn’t he do it this one time is beyond me ..
It is probably the reason we are not top 3 contenders.
He made the draft day trade with philly in 2019 and so far it seems like he lost that trade. I can’t comment on the suns trade and what the motivations were... did he know he needed cap space ??
Overall his draft day trading has been mixed bag..it just tells me he’s over confident in his drafting strategies.

As long as majority of fans are happy with 4 rookies every year and with picks like JJJ and James young he will not try to get better or improve his models and strategies.

Giannis Antetokounmpo looked like a big risk big reward type of pick.  He was much smaller then he is now and he didn't play against top level talent.  Really he played in one of the worst leagues in Europe and he wasn't even on the top level of that league.   look at this scouting video.  he is playing scrubs.  yes he shows talent but there have been many a NBA bust who showed out against DI talent in college and couldn't make it.  I believe he has grown 2 inches and gained 50+ lbs since being drafted.  Danny didn't pass on the Giannis Antetokounmpo you see today he passed on the scrawny kid playing great against a bunch of no talent nobodies.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Giannis Adetokunbo) 2013 NBA Draft Scouting Report Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oaw0_zw9LGs&feature=emb_err_watch_on_yt

We were legit title contenders the season before but we blew it up with the Brooklyn trade.  We lost KG and had absolutely nothing at center.  We need a big man wors than we do now, we were seriously despert for a center and after Adams was taken Danny treded up to get the nexxt best prospect on the board in Olynyk.   We ended up adding Joel Anthony and Vítor Faverani to man the 5 but more of those minutes went to anther FA Kris Humphries who was superposed to play the 4.  Kelly Olynyk looked like a legit star in college, and in summer league for that matter.  We came out of summer league talking about the Olynyk Clinic because he was taking everyone to school.  Celtics fans were doing flips over the greatness of the pick and the trade, but then the real games came he for some reason the Olynyk couldn't preform at the same level.  He is still a legit rotation player and a quality pick for the slot at # 13. 

Seriously compair draft prospect Kelly Olynyk vs draft prospect Giannis Antetokounmpo and tell me honestly that you would pick Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Giannis Antetokounmpo 6'9 196 lbs
Kelly Olynyk 7'0 234 lbs

Kelly Olynyk 2013 NBA Draft Scouting Report Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4&feature=emb_err_watch_on_yt

[NKY fan]

Here's a more objective approach: rank each player by win shares in their draft class. It's not perfect but it's better than opinions, which is all we've gotten so far.


I'll throw out top 10 picks to be consistent with the post above. You'll see the player's name, their draft position, and their WS rank in the class, followed by "OVER" or "UNDER" perform. I'll call it "EVEN if the rank is +/- 1 slot.

Also looking at 10 years of history.

2017: Rob Williams, 27 (21), OVER
2017: Semi Ojeleye, 37 (25), OVER
2017: Kadeem Allen, 53 (36), OVER
2017: Jabari Bird, 56 (46), OVER
2016: Ante Zizic, 23 (24), EVEN
2016: Abdel Nader, 58 (30), OVER
2016: Guerschon Yabusele, 31 (16), UNDER
2016: Demetrius Jackson, 45 (38), OVER
2016: Ben Bentil, 51 (50), EVEN
2015: Terry Rozier, 16 (12), OVER
2015: Jordan Mickey, 33 (36), UNDER
2015: RJ Hunter, 28 (38), UNDER
2015: Marcus Thornton, EVEN (never played but drafted in a slot where never playing is the norm for that year)
2014: James Young, 17 (37), UNDER
2013: Kelly Olynyk, 13 (8 ), OVER
2012: Jared Sullinger 21 (19), OVER
2012: Fab Melo, 22 (48), UNDER
2012: Kris Joseph, 50 (51), EVEN
2011: ETwuan Moore, 55 (22), OVER
2011: JaJuan Johnson, 27 (45), UNDER
2010: Avery Bradley 19 (15), OVER
2010: Luke Harangody, 52 (31), OVER
2009: Lester Hudson 58 (45), OVER
2008: Semih Erden 60 (37), OVER
2008: JR Giddens, 30 (45), UNDER

So what does this leave us with?

UNDER: 7
OVER: 14
EVEN: 4

These are great numbers: Ainge drafts guys that outperform their draft slot twice as often as he drafts guys that underperforms.

You could do these using different metrics, but I doubt you'll see too much difference in the overall conclusion. The claim that Ainge is a terrible drafter is just 100% wrong. Because this is a zero-sum method, for every pick he makes that outperforms, there must be a GM out there who's underperforming.

For what it's worth I had done another one of these several years back, going all the way back to Ainge's beginning with the organization, and you see the same thing. There are just a handful of guys who are arguably better than him. (Rondo is the best #21 pick EVER, unless you want to put Michael Finley above him, and Al Jefferson is one of the 5 best picks at his slot as well.)

I can't see into other people's heads, but I suspect that a lot of the knee-jerk thinking about this comes from one thing: not understanding exactly how few players at any draft slot end up being legit NBA players, much less stars. That's probably a salience effect: we remember Giannis as a 15 pick, but forget that the typical player in that range is someone like Adriean Payne, or Kelly Oubre, or Royce White, or Lucas Noguiera, or Shabazz Mohammad...

I think the only way to really get a sense for that is by spending time looking at the drafts, going back years.

This is very flawed methodology. I have gone in more depth of what Danny has done in the middle of the draft and came away with him being behind all his peers like morey and Buford .
I am not sure why the over of his picks in the 40-60 should count as anything as those guys didn’t really do much and their WS have more to do with them getting spot minutes on a good team.
You also fail to recognize how bad the unders are. The 7 under that you identified are historically bad in their draft range by almost all metrics.

You haven't presented a single hard fact to back up your statements. You don't like my method? Fine, you pick one. Gather some data, justify the method and show us the results. Otherwise you'll continue to come off as someone spouting unfounded nonsense.

And by the way my analysis above is hardly a "very flawed methodology." It's a logically founded, simple method. You can do it other ways, sure. There are drawbacks to any one method, sure. But until you present an alternative, you've brought nothing of value to the discussion.

PS There are plenty of other analyses out there too, using different methods and covering different periods, and nearly all of them rate Danny as above average. You can find them on your own if you want to.

I sent you a PM. Well here is the problem with your methodology:
Marcus Thornton selected at 46 or whatever is even... I understand that ranking on WS but:
You included a few players selected after 46 ... they are basically guaranteed to be over and I agree ( Nader and etawn Moore have been good value for their draft slot)... all those late picks guaranteed to be over is because there are plenty of horrible picks in the middle of the draft and unfortunately Danny accounts for quite a few of those.

Can you present a better methodology?

Also lol at the emboldened. How?

Everyone at the bottom is either bad or outperforming their draft slot (since there's a floor on how badly you can do). So if you discount all picks who play poorly as just living up to their draft spot, and players that outperform the same as other players that outperform, you'll introduce bias.

I don't think it's more bias than basing you methodology on 1. starting the year after Ainge's best pick (Rondo), 2. only counting picks better than Ainge's best in that period (Avery Bradley) as good picks (actually "borderline all stars"), and 3. removing the sections of the draft (lottery and 2nd round) where Ainge did best, but it's bias nonetheless.

I will make the methodology more intuitive and presentable. I do believe Danny’s analytics team is missing something in their drafting predictive models. Obviously I can’t tell what the issue is but something is partly to blame for the bad picks since 2007 or since big tech like apple Facebook and google changed the way we live.
Other teams started drafting better while Celtics regressed.

What other teams?? Name more than 3

Rockets , spurs , nuggets with and without Ujiri, I would add Miami  and maybe thunder and blazers

So four and two maybes out of 29 other clubs and somehow Danny is bad compared to his peers?
 
You can see how this is not adding up right?

His peers are GMs that have the same longevity as him in the field not the suns or knicks GMs etc. I know what I’m talking about and I am almost always right 

If you select only the GMs who've been running teams for 10+ years, you are comparing him to the most successful ones in the league. It's selection bias. Even if he's average in that group he's way above average in the league.

And even there, ok, you mention the Nuggets, who've made one great 2nd round pick in Jokic. Since then they have drafted these guys in the 2nd round:

Thomas Welsh
Vlatko Cancar
Monte Morris
Petr Cornelie
Nikola Radicevic

Lot of home runs there...if you want to contend in the Greek B league.

And on their 1st rounders, they have one recent solid hit (Murray). They have one huge bust (Mudiay). McDermott for Harris was a good trade.

But they also have made two of the worst draft day trades in recent NBA history: trading away Donovan Mitchell for Trey Lyles and a pick in 2017, and also trading away Rudy Gobert in 2013 for a 2nd rounder.

Seriously now...you rank that as great? Trading away draft rights to a DPOY and a perennial 25/4/4 guy for basically nothing?

TP from me. A huge element of ranking a GM's drafting is definitely their draft-day trading, and Denver is one of the worst for that, whereas Danny is one of the best. The Rondo & Tatum trades are examples of this.

I would say more draft day trading means that GMs are very confident in their rankings and think they know which are the targets of of other  GMs picking around where they pick.
I was going to comment on his draft day trading :
Can’t remember if rondo was draft day or not but that’s a good one.
JaJuan plus etawn for brooks - good because somehow he got the best player out of it.. he could have bought the 55 pick for $200K... also he let Moore go for some reason
16 pick plus a second rounder to draft KO??? I know giannis was unknown but he scouted him and he has drafted for upside so many times... why didn’t he do it this one time is beyond me ..
It is probably the reason we are not top 3 contenders.
He made the draft day trade with philly in 2019 and so far it seems like he lost that trade. I can’t comment on the suns trade and what the motivations were... did he know he needed cap space ??
Overall his draft day trading has been mixed bag..it just tells me he’s over confident in his drafting strategies.

As long as majority of fans are happy with 4 rookies every year and with picks like JJJ and James young he will not try to get better or improve his models and strategies.

Giannis Antetokounmpo looked like a big risk big reward type of pick.  He was much smaller then he is now and he didn't play against top level talent.  Really he played in one of the worst leagues in Europe and he wasn't even on the top level of that league.   look at this scouting video.  he is playing scrubs.  yes he shows talent but there have been many a NBA bust who showed out against DI talent in college and couldn't make it.  I believe he has grown 2 inches and gained 50+ lbs since being drafted.  Danny didn't pass on the Giannis Antetokounmpo you see today he passed on the scrawny kid playing great against a bunch of no talent nobodies.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Giannis Adetokunbo) 2013 NBA Draft Scouting Report Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oaw0_zw9LGs&feature=emb_err_watch_on_yt

We were legit title contenders the season before but we blew it up with the Brooklyn trade.  We lost KG and had absolutely nothing at center.  We need a big man wors than we do now, we were seriously despert for a center and after Adams was taken Danny treded up to get the nexxt best prospect on the board in Olynyk.   We ended up adding Joel Anthony and Vítor Faverani to man the 5 but more of those minutes went to anther FA Kris Humphries who was superposed to play the 4.  Kelly Olynyk looked like a legit star in college, and in summer league for that matter.  We came out of summer league talking about the Olynyk Clinic because he was taking everyone to school.  Celtics fans were doing flips over the greatness of the pick and the trade, but then the real games came he for some reason the Olynyk couldn't preform at the same level.  He is still a legit rotation player and a quality pick for the slot at # 13. 

Seriously compair draft prospect Kelly Olynyk vs draft prospect Giannis Antetokounmpo and tell me honestly that you would pick Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Giannis Antetokounmpo 6'9 196 lbs
Kelly Olynyk 7'0 234 lbs

Kelly Olynyk 2013 NBA Draft Scouting Report Video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4&feature=emb_err_watch_on_yt

Im not comparing them as prospects . I’m using Danny’s drafting tendencies to infer if he was keeping to his philosophy he should have taken Giannis or he doesn’t evaluate future potential correctly .. maybe his Greek translator was bad 🤷🏻‍♂️...
He drafted fab melo despite his coach telling Danny tha Fab (rip) is not a smart individual...
he drafted James young because he made 3 shots in college ... he saw something there because he was going for the home run ... why he didn’t go for the home run with Giannis ?
Is really a perceived safe 13 pick would save the season ? We were thanking anyway..
Anyway you can find logic in any decision

[Roy H.]

I think the “excuse” is that Horford, Kyrie and Morris all left in free agency?

Danny recovered from that without missing a beat. What’s the problem?

[Phantom255x]

I think the “excuse” is that Horford, Kyrie and Morris all left in free agency?

Danny recovered from that without missing a beat. What’s the problem?

Exactly!

Lets be real. If Danny listened to this blog, we're a lottery team right now. Danny still kept us contenders despite all that happened last summer and there are still folks acting like he's the problem. Ainge isn't perfect, but he's still one of the better GMs out there.

[mmmmm]

I think the “excuse” is that Horford, Kyrie and Morris all left in free agency?

Danny recovered from that without missing a beat. What’s the problem?

Perfect summary.

[Rosco917]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

[kraidstar]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

TP

We don't have a top-10 player on the roster but we have a great record and are clearly on the upswing.

It took the Warriors several years to find themselves, and we're trending in the right direction for sure. It's a great time to be a C's fan.

[NKY fan]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

Ok then . Danny should try not to waste draft capital and young assets then. Trade the Memphis and our picks for future unprotected picks to some team. Trade maybe Romeo for a future pick as he will probably waste his talents and value on the bench and in Maine... why keep bringing 4 -5 rookies every year?

[Moranis]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

Ok then . Danny should try not to waste draft capital and young assets then. Trade the Memphis and our picks for future unprotected picks to some team. Trade maybe Romeo for a future pick as he will probably waste his talents and value on the bench and in Maine... why keep bringing 4 -5 rookies every year?

Your have it wrong.  If the plan is to wait for Tatum and Brown then he should trade veterans for additional draft or young player assets, use the picks to try to find complimentary players, etc. 

That is actually the problem I've had with Ainge's moves or lack thereof for the last several seasons.  He hasn't picked a direction.  He either needs to go all in or do whatever he can to put Tatum and Brown in the best position to win a title starting a couple of seasons down the line.  He has been trying to have his cake and eat it too for the last few seasons and is harming either path.  That is what was so bad about making the Irving trade in isolation.  He just didn't follow it up and if he wasn't going to follow it up, he never should have made it to begin with.

[mmmmm]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

Ok then . Danny should try not to waste draft capital and young assets then. Trade the Memphis and our picks for future unprotected picks to some team. Trade maybe Romeo for a future pick as he will probably waste his talents and value on the bench and in Maine... why keep bringing 4 -5 rookies every year?

Your have it wrong.  If the plan is to wait for Tatum and Brown then he should trade veterans for additional draft or young player assets, use the picks to try to find complimentary players, etc. 

That is actually the problem I've had with Ainge's moves or lack thereof for the last several seasons.  He hasn't picked a direction.  He either needs to go all in or do whatever he can to put Tatum and Brown in the best position to win a title starting a couple of seasons down the line.  He has been trying to have his cake and eat it too for the last few seasons and is harming either path.  That is what was so bad about making the Irving trade in isolation.  He just didn't follow it up and if he wasn't going to follow it up, he never should have made it to begin with.

The Irving trade can't be looked at in isolation.  It was a trade of opportunity, but was made within the context of a larger plan.

His "plan" 6 months before that was to add a top FA to form a trio with Horford and Thomas.  He got the top FA on the market in Gordon.  But Isaiah's hip cut the legs out from under what would have been a fantastic veteran trio.   He was given the opportunity to salvage that plan with the Irving trade.  On paper, a core trio of Horford, Hayward and Irving, with the veteran role players like Baynes, Morris & Smart and the young stud talent of Jaylen & Jayson able to grow within that without pressure to be stars right away should have been a fantastic team able to compete then and in the future.   No one was complaining about Danny's "plan" going into that season.

But first Hayward got injured and then Irving showed out to maybe not really be a replacement for the pre-injury Thomas.  Those things, like Thomas' injury, aren't things Danny could control.

As Roy put it, the end result of the Irving trade was that at the end of last year Irving, Horford and Morris walked.  And Danny seems to have managed to bounce the roster right back up without missing a beat.

This roster is interesting because on one hand, it is one of the youngest rosters in the league.  On the other hand, it actually has a lot of players with a lot of playoff experience.  I think that the this roster has enough talent as is to at least be within striking distance of competing for a title now if they are completely healthy and they get a few breaks.   But beyond that, I think they are well setup to compete for a title over the next 2-4 seasons outright.

[ChillyWilly]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

Ok then . Danny should try not to waste draft capital and young assets then. Trade the Memphis and our picks for future unprotected picks to some team. Trade maybe Romeo for a future pick as he will probably waste his talents and value on the bench and in Maine... why keep bringing 4 -5 rookies every year?

Your have it wrong.  If the plan is to wait for Tatum and Brown then he should trade veterans for additional draft or young player assets, use the picks to try to find complimentary players, etc. 

That is actually the problem I've had with Ainge's moves or lack thereof for the last several seasons.  He hasn't picked a direction.  He either needs to go all in or do whatever he can to put Tatum and Brown in the best position to win a title starting a couple of seasons down the line.  He has been trying to have his cake and eat it too for the last few seasons and is harming either path.  That is what was so bad about making the Irving trade in isolation.  He just didn't follow it up and if he wasn't going to follow it up, he never should have made it to begin with.

The Irving trade can't be looked at in isolation.  It was a trade of opportunity, but was made within the context of a larger plan.

His "plan" 6 months before that was to add a top FA to form a trio with Horford and Thomas.  He got the top FA on the market in Gordon.  But Isaiah's hip cut the legs out from under what would have been a fantastic veteran trio.   He was given the opportunity to salvage that plan with the Irving trade.  On paper, a core trio of Horford, Hayward and Irving, with the veteran role players like Baynes, Morris & Smart and the young stud talent of Jaylen & Jayson able to grow within that without pressure to be stars right away should have been a fantastic team able to compete then and in the future.   No one was complaining about Danny's "plan" going into that season.

But first Hayward got injured and then Irving showed out to maybe not really be a replacement for the pre-injury Thomas.  Those things, like Thomas' injury, aren't things Danny could control.

As Roy put it, the end result of the Irving trade was that at the end of last year Irving, Horford and Morris walked.  And Danny seems to have managed to bounce the roster right back up without missing a beat.

This roster is interesting because on one hand, it is one of the youngest rosters in the league.  On the other hand, it actually has a lot of players with a lot of playoff experience.  I think that the this roster has enough talent as is to at least be within striking distance of competing for a title now if they are completely healthy and they get a few breaks.   But beyond that, I think they are well setup to compete for a title over the next 2-4 seasons outright.

TP

[wiley]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

Ok then . Danny should try not to waste draft capital and young assets then. Trade the Memphis and our picks for future unprotected picks to some team. Trade maybe Romeo for a future pick as he will probably waste his talents and value on the bench and in Maine... why keep bringing 4 -5 rookies every year?

Your have it wrong.  If the plan is to wait for Tatum and Brown then he should trade veterans for additional draft or young player assets, use the picks to try to find complimentary players, etc. 

That is actually the problem I've had with Ainge's moves or lack thereof for the last several seasons.  He hasn't picked a direction.  He either needs to go all in or do whatever he can to put Tatum and Brown in the best position to win a title starting a couple of seasons down the line.  He has been trying to have his cake and eat it too for the last few seasons and is harming either path.  That is what was so bad about making the Irving trade in isolation.  He just didn't follow it up and if he wasn't going to follow it up, he never should have made it to begin with.

The Irving trade can't be looked at in isolation.  It was a trade of opportunity, but was made within the context of a larger plan.

His "plan" 6 months before that was to add a top FA to form a trio with Horford and Thomas.  He got the top FA on the market in Gordon.  But Isaiah's hip cut the legs out from under what would have been a fantastic veteran trio.   He was given the opportunity to salvage that plan with the Irving trade.  On paper, a core trio of Horford, Hayward and Irving, with the veteran role players like Baynes, Morris & Smart and the young stud talent of Jaylen & Jayson able to grow within that without pressure to be stars right away should have been a fantastic team able to compete then and in the future.   No one was complaining about Danny's "plan" going into that season.

But first Hayward got injured and then Irving showed out to maybe not really be a replacement for the pre-injury Thomas.  Those things, like Thomas' injury, aren't things Danny could control.

As Roy put it, the end result of the Irving trade was that at the end of last year Irving, Horford and Morris walked.  And Danny seems to have managed to bounce the roster right back up without missing a beat.

This roster is interesting because on one hand, it is one of the youngest rosters in the league.  On the other hand, it actually has a lot of players with a lot of playoff experience.  I think that the this roster has enough talent as is to at least be within striking distance of competing for a title now if they are completely healthy and they get a few breaks.   But beyond that, I think they are well setup to compete for a title over the next 2-4 seasons outright.

TP

Let's not forget the other part of the plan was to combine Iriving with AD, along with Horford, Hayward, and whatever was left from the trade...that whole thing didn't work out.  Thankfully it wasn't meant to be.  I like the team now....and as much as it'd be nice to have SGA (if that were the pick) in green, maybe we wouldn't have Kemba in that case...well, a lot of things would be very different without the Irving trade...

[NKY fan]

There are no problems or excuses. Danny is waiting patiently for Tatum and Brown to fully mature to make the moves necessary to get the Celtic over the hump, and provide their best opportunity to win a ring. This isn't a video game.

Hopefully Smart, Walker and even Hayward will be involved in some way. Until then watch and enjoy the ride.

Ok then . Danny should try not to waste draft capital and young assets then. Trade the Memphis and our picks for future unprotected picks to some team. Trade maybe Romeo for a future pick as he will probably waste his talents and value on the bench and in Maine... why keep bringing 4 -5 rookies every year?

Your have it wrong.  If the plan is to wait for Tatum and Brown then he should trade veterans for additional draft or young player assets, use the picks to try to find complimentary players, etc. 

That is actually the problem I've had with Ainge's moves or lack thereof for the last several seasons.  He hasn't picked a direction.  He either needs to go all in or do whatever he can to put Tatum and Brown in the best position to win a title starting a couple of seasons down the line.  He has been trying to have his cake and eat it too for the last few seasons and is harming either path.  That is what was so bad about making the Irving trade in isolation.  He just didn't follow it up and if he wasn't going to follow it up, he never should have made it to begin with.

The Irving trade can't be looked at in isolation.  It was a trade of opportunity, but was made within the context of a larger plan.

His "plan" 6 months before that was to add a top FA to form a trio with Horford and Thomas.  He got the top FA on the market in Gordon.  But Isaiah's hip cut the legs out from under what would have been a fantastic veteran trio.   He was given the opportunity to salvage that plan with the Irving trade.  On paper, a core trio of Horford, Hayward and Irving, with the veteran role players like Baynes, Morris & Smart and the young stud talent of Jaylen & Jayson able to grow within that without pressure to be stars right away should have been a fantastic team able to compete then and in the future.   No one was complaining about Danny's "plan" going into that season.

But first Hayward got injured and then Irving showed out to maybe not really be a replacement for the pre-injury Thomas.  Those things, like Thomas' injury, aren't things Danny could control.

As Roy put it, the end result of the Irving trade was that at the end of last year Irving, Horford and Morris walked.  And Danny seems to have managed to bounce the roster right back up without missing a beat.

This roster is interesting because on one hand, it is one of the youngest rosters in the league.  On the other hand, it actually has a lot of players with a lot of playoff experience.  I think that the this roster has enough talent as is to at least be within striking distance of competing for a title now if they are completely healthy and they get a few breaks.   But beyond that, I think they are well setup to compete for a title over the next 2-4 seasons outright.

While I agree about the part on competing this season if some things bounce our way.... I don’t agree we will be contending the following 2-4 years because we will need more breaks our way than we need now:
-Starting next year warriors , Brooklyn and maybe one of mavs and philly will be real contenders as they will possibly get much stronger.
- then a year after the lakers may become much stronger if they add a third star in free agency
-next year an unknown team will make the leap too - maybe one of pelicans, Atlanta or wizards.

The most likely scenario - we will be a second tier contender for the next 4 years.