The Case for Trading Gordon Hayward (Hear Me Out)

[NKY fan]

2 trades that works in trade machine with OKC
1- Adams and Roberson for Hayward
2- Gallinari, Noel & Roberson for Hayward

What are we supposed to do with three players and the roster?

I assume waive Roberson/Poirier?

Roberson is done as a NBA player I fear, and if you're trading for Noel its to replace a C. I wouldn't do that deal myself, I don't think Gallinari is even an upgrade over Hayward similar value players. Gallo provides more FTAs and 3s and Hayward more passing.

How about we send Romeo plus Poirier for Roberson plus one of the unprotected picks they have in 202X from Houston or Clips?
this achieves 2 things for each team:
- We clear cap space (Poirier guaranteed $2.7M next year) and we clear roster spots for occupied by inexperienced players next year
-We get another potentially good asset to trade for a star
-OKC  goes under the luxury
-OKC speed up their rebuild and they need help on the wings badly


-Langford will have the chance to show what he can do and not be behind 3 great wings on the pecking order
-Last we can trade Roberson for someone making $16M at the deadline (i might be wrong on that)

[Fafnir]

Why would we take on money and send out a low lottery pick for a likely future non-lottery pick?

Additionally I don't like moving Romeo at all until we know if Hayward walks. We will need cheap wings for depth if he's not on the roster next year.

An aside:

We could trade Roberson again before the deadline but we could not aggregate his salary with other players.

[NKY fan]

Why would we take on money and send out a low lottery pick for a likely future non-lottery pick?

Additionally I don't like moving Romeo at all until we know if Hayward walks. We will need cheap wings for depth if he's not on the roster next year.

An aside:

We could trade Roberson again before the deadline but we could not aggregate his salary with other players.

Because I think we will waste his talents (given he is talented) here. I also worry that agents will start steering future draftees away from Boston... see the post about 11 players on rookie contracts

[ozgod]

Gordon's certainly improved his value over the past few games. No knock on JT at all but it obviously helps the others (Gordon, Jaylen) when one ball dominant player is out. But Jay King from the Athletic points out why Gordon's value to the team isn't necessarily in points scored (since we have at least 4 players who could score 20+ if they had to and took enough shots). But not everyone else can do the other stuff that Gordon does, the stuff that people who moan about his stat line or only check the box score without watching the game don't notice. There's not many players who willingly take a back seat to younger, lower paid players for the good of the team, knowing he will get criticized because "he should be delivering 25+ points as a max player". And I'm sure he will take a back seat when we're fully healthy and I'm sure he won't have a problem with it.

11. Over Tatum’s three-game absence, Hayward has averaged 24.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists on 56.3-percent shooting, including 42.9 percent from behind the arc. He might currently be in his best stretch of the season – and the best stretch of his Celtics tenure.

12. Hayward has a long list of reasons to appreciate what he has in Boston. The Celtics are one of the Eastern Conference’s best teams. Tatum and Brown have played at a high enough level to earn All-Star consideration. Walker has been an essential addition both on and off the court. Stevens, Hayward’s college coach, does an impressive job on the sidelines. After a weird season last year, the Celtics enjoy each other again.

But Hayward was coming off an All-Star season when he signed with the Celtics in 2017. He went through a gruesome injury and eventually regained most, if not all, of his athleticism. He has bounced back to score as efficiently as ever this season, with career highs in both field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage. And yet, at least based on usage rate, he has been Boston’s fourth option.

13. At least publicly, Hayward has never complained. He knows he doesn’t always need to post huge stat lines to impact a game. He loves the little things, including cutting and extra passing. He makes the right play a whole lot. The three guys in front of him in the pecking order – Walker, Tatum and Brown – have all been great. Hayward has fought through a couple of injuries this season. Even when healthy, he might deserve to be the fourth option on this roster.

14. Even if he does, Hayward is a heck of a fourth option. Hayward picked apart Orlando’s defense during Boston’s comeback at the start of this road trip. To close out Miami, he scored twice in a row by hunting out the Heat’s Duncan Robinson in switches.

15. Other Celtics players want Hayward to be as aggressive as possible. Smart appreciates that Hayward always wants to play team ball.

“Just his leadership, his professionalism,” Smart said. “He’s an All-Star type of caliber guy, but yet he’s sitting back and he’s accepting his role when it isn’t his time. And when it’s time for him to step up, he’s stepping up when he needs to. So it just shows the professionalism that he has, man.”

https://theathletic.com/1568939/2020/01/29/boston-celtics-miami-heat-important-road-win/

BUT...if Danny decided to move on from him and get the All-World Big that many have been advocating for, I think he didn't do his cause or his value any harm over the past few games. Gordon would slot well into most teams because of how unselfish he is. I'd imagine most players would love to play with a guy like him.

[JSD]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

[saltlover]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

There might be, but if there is, we’ve had all our wings healthy for so few games this season that such a stat could easily be explained by a combination of small sample size and lack of rhythm with each other.

[Androslav]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

There might be, but if there is, we’ve had all our wings healthy for so few games this season that such a stat could easily be explained by a combination of small sample size and lack of rhythm with each other.

I like them all ready and able.
It seems to me that when they are all healthy we have at least one severe missmatch working for us on the floor.
Missmatches usually win playoff series.

[SHAQATTACK]

i hear ya unc

But i don't hear a Rudy Ray Moore thang you say

[Rosco917]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

You're not nuts.

There is such a thing as too many of the SAME TYPE players on the floor at the same time. Too many players that are reluctant to pass the ball because they personally can't get on a roll without the ball in their hands, is begging for inconsistent basketball results.

The teams that win most in the NBA...the elite teams, know who their main scorers are and these same players efficiently prove it most nights. When a team has too many self-indulgent "cooks" in the kitchen there are always problems.

Considering the game is played with one ball, and each team has a limited amount of shots, shooting percentage plays an important roll in winning. When you have a team that has players with low shooting percentages, taking too many poor shots, you will not win consistently.

Yes, the question does need to be asked... Do the Celtics have redundant players on this team.

Hayward is a player that is very willing to take a back seat and be a facilitator when called for. When the ball is in HIS hand the opposing defenders don't know what to expect. That's his main value.

Sorry, but Hayward isn't the problem.

[mmmmm]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

There might be, but if there is, we’ve had all our wings healthy for so few games this season that such a stat could easily be explained by a combination of small sample size and lack of rhythm with each other.

I like them all ready and able.
It seems to me that when they are all healthy we have at least one severe missmatch working for us on the floor.
Missmatches usually win playoff series.

I've posted this elsewhere, but yeah, in the times when we _have_ had all three on the floor, they have all played extremely well together.   As you note, when we have all three on the floor, at least one of them is going to have a mismatch, being guarded by a small or a big.

Our starting 5 (Kemba+Jaylen+Gordon+Jayson+Daniel) has played 303 possessions together and has a NetRating of +16.0 points per 100!   We need more of that!

Individually, when together like that ALL 5 starters have fantastic numbers.  And even including last night's nice showing by Jaylen & Gordon, it's VERY clear that Jaylen, Jayson and Gordon as a 3-some benefit massively from playing WITH each other.  Look at these scoring efficiencies:

Code: [Select]

The starters (303 possessions):
Kemba   61.1% TS, 59.2% eFG, 24.6% USG
Jaylen  66.4% TS, 64.5% eFG, 24.2% USG
Gordon  72.1% TS, 71.4% eFG, 16.7% USG
Jayson  60.3% TS, 57.7% eFG, 20.2% USG
Daniel  61.0% TS, 60.0% eFG, 13.4% USG

The 3-wings overall together (649 possessions):
Jaylen  63.4% TS, 59.4% eFG, 24.0% USG
Gordon  66.4% TS, 63.2% eFG, 18.5% USG
Jayson  58.9% TS, 55.8% eFG, 21.5% USG

w/o Gordon (992 possessions):
Jaylen  60.2% TS, 57.2% eFG, 24.0% USG
Jayson  45.1% TS, 40.0% eFG, 26.1% USG

w/o Jaylen (555 possessions):
Gordon  54.3% TS, 51.8% eFG, 20.9% USG
Jayson  56.1% TS, 53.8% eFG, 27.5% USG

w/o Jayson (305 possessions):
Jaylen  52.1% TS, 50.8% eFG, 26.2% USG
Gordon  47.5% TS, 45.6% eFG, 18.7% USG


As you can see, when we play without one of the three wings, there is a serious drop-off in the performance of the other two.  Now, some of that has to do with the 'alternatives' problem.   The guy who most often replaces one of our 3 wings is Smart.  And occasionally it is Semi.    Both are good players, but both represent serious drop-offs for our offense.   Smart also takes a ton of touches away from Gordon as well as Kemba when he's on the floor.

In an ideal configuration, we would have the Romeo of 2 years from now to come off the bench and represent the 'bench wing' who helps us retain the obvious match up advantage we have when we put all three scoring wings on the floor.

[ozgod]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

I guess it depends on whether we're talking about a statistically good game or a game where they all made the right plays, executed each play that was available to them to the best of their ability, were efficient in what they did and contributed to winning, even if the box score doesn't show the quantities you want. E.g. we could have a game where Jayson scores 30, Jaylen scores 20 and Hayward scores 15 but has 8 rebounds and 7 assists and shot 7-10 from the floor. Or it could be the opposite. Though because Hayward has a more rounded skillset, he's more likely to have added value even if his scoring is lower (because more often than not his scoring is lower because he took less shots and passed the ball more. Jayson and Jaylen (in particular) have improved their passing and facilitation skills this year but they're not yet on a par with Hayward. Of the 3 Jayson is probably the purest scorer and the best at getting his own shot off, he's less likely to set other players up. He's most effective as a volume shooter since he's shooting 43%. I'm not surprised that he's taking the most FGA of the three of them. Jaylen (49% FG%) is in between the two of them in that he's getting better as a facilitator, he's learning how to drive and kick effectively but he's not quite got the court vision Hayward (52% FG%) has yet.

As someone said there's only one ball and a finite number of shots, passes, etc to go around for everyone. I think the challenge and opportunity for them all is recognizing who has the best play and collectively taking advantage of it, instead of "everyone trying to get his". As long as they do that they will all thrive. I've been very impressed in Kemba in that respect...when he knows he doesn't have it his focus shifts to trying to feed everyone else and create for them, even if he ends up with 8 - 10 points.

Everything that Hayward does though will be viewed through the lens of how much he's getting paid vs the other two. Bit like Horford during his first year when they were calling him Average Al because he was only averaging 14pts 8 rebs. That's just one of the burdens you carry as a max player.

[Sophomore]

Good post, mmmmm.

This struck me:

“Our starting 5 (Kemba+Jaylen+Gordon+Jayson+Daniel) has played 303 possessions together and has a NetRating of +16.0 points per 100!   We need more of that!”

We do. 303 possessions seems like very little, and it is. A little less than 3 games’ worth (Cs average 103 possessions/game) over our first 46; good for an average of about 3 mins/game (they’ve played 4738 mins, not counting overtime).  That’s really not a lot.

Obviously, injuries have a good deal to do with it.

[Celtics4ever]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

No , I think your on to something....

[ederson]

I’m not sure if there’s a stat to back this up, but it seems like the wings play better when one our wings are out? Am I nuts?

No , I think your on to something....

less mouths to feed ......

[Birdman]

Hayward is not going anywhere