So trade Kemba and roll with Tremont, have I got that right?
Dude is seriously good.
Trade for a big man!
There's no doubt Ainge will still make a trade to complete the roster for a playoff run.
If Jaylen and the Celts don't agree to a contract extension by the 21st, it will be very clear that Jaylen will be getting a max offer in the summer of 2020.
Celts will have 2 choices, give Brown the max of 30m per year or trade him on or before the trade deadline.
Celtics can still match no?
I think you let go of Hayward before Brown (or Tatum)
Hayward most likely opts out
Celts still have time
Depends on how much Brad Stevens is attached to Hayward personally. There is some rhetoric out there that suggests Brad allowed his relationship with Hayward to affect his judgement and coaching decisions last season.
Given their relationship I feel Danny would also be far less likely to trade Hayward, and if he did he would probably try hard to avoid trading him to a situation he doesn't want to go to - which in turn limits options and reduces the chance of getting an optimal return.
I also seriously doubt Hayward opts out, unless he has a SERIOUSLY good year this year. Hayward scored a $30M/year max deal thanks to a combination of great timing (coming off his best season of his career) and a strong relationship with coach Stevens.
After his lack of production his past two seasons combined with injury risk, I think it's highly unlikely that any team would offer Hayward a max contract at this point. I can't imagine he would turn down $30M just like that then there's a chance he may never get a single season pay day like that again for the rest of his career.
I mean, I know that the past 2 seasons are not Hayward's fault, but the NBA is hardly big on sentimentality. If you're a guy like Hayward I think you look at what has happened to a guy like Demarcus Cousins, and you take every cent you can get while you can still get it.
Hayward doesn't need a "seriously" good season. At 80 percent, he is still a very good player. And will get paid 25 million per season by a handful of teams
Look, I get that he and Brad have a special relationship. But at the expense on giving up on Brown, could be a costly mistake down the line
Right now, Danny doesn't have to think about this difficult choice. I also don't see him trading either one during the season.
$25M per year for a 30 year old coming off a major injury and the worst 3 year stretch of his career? I seriously doubt it.
Don't get me wrong teams will want for him, no doubt about it. He's a wing with good size who can do a little bit of everything (shoot, slash, pass, dribble, rebound, defend) and who has a reputation for being a good locker room guy. He has the potential to be a nice glue guy for a contending team that needs that extra piece.
Problem is that even if he does come back to 80% of is prime self (which he's yet to prove he has), he's still unlikely to be any more then a #3 option on this team behind Kemba and Tatum. If Brown takes some real strides, Hayward may even be pushed by to a 4th scoring option on this team. His touches are going to be among the lowest of his career, as will his field goal attempts and (as a result) his scoring average. The lack of bench depth means he will probably still play 28-30 MPG, and yet in that he's probably going to be lucky to average any more then about 13 - 14 PPG thanks to the sheer number of wing scorers on this roster.
Lets say he looks really good, and puts up some really nice efficient shooting numbers - say 47% / 38% / 84%.
I look at a scenario where you have a 30 year old guy coming off a 3 year contract in which he had one DNP season, one season in which his production was not even starter worthy, and then a third year where he averaging 14 PPG on 47% / 37% / 83% shooting for what most considered to be a 2nd - 3rd tier team.
Putting myself in the position of other teams out there, I don't see how I can justify committing to $25M a year for the next 3-4 years for that guy.
One situation that i would see as somewhat comparable would be the Kevin Love scenario. When he was in Minnesota he was putting up superstar numbers - well beyond what Hayward was putting up in even his best NBA season. When he relocated to Cleveland he suddenly became the #3 option on that team, and as a result his individual stats took a pretty big hit - to the point where he was now putting up about 17/9 or so. Still very nice numbers, just simply no longer superstar numbers. Throw a couple of injuries in to the mix, and somehow Kevin Love's market value seemingly dropped like a brick despite the fact that he was still in his 20s and was a proven double-double guy.
Problem is that by this time Love is now being looked at as somebody who is approaching his 30s, is an injury risk, doesn't have any real proven leadership ability, and is at best a #3 option on a championship contender. He's still a very nice player who could make a huge impact for many contending teams out there, but only "at the right price". Cleveland seemingly tried to move him for years in the hope that some team would gamble on the believe of getting a hint of old superstar Kevin Love, but every team kinda knew he was no longer that guy and nobody was really willing to offer much more than what he was - a good NBA starter.
i feel Hayward is, unfortunately, in this same general situation. He earned a rep putting up all-star numbers as the #1 option on a not overly deep team. Then he relocated to a much deeper team. Then he suffered a major injury. Then he came back and struggled in a huge way his first season back. Then he likely goes on to put up numbers far below those that earned him his All-Star rep. Teams are more then likely going to be weary - sure his numbers could just be down because hes on a stacked team, but how do we know part of it isn't due to him just not being the same player? Is the fact that he's even dropped to a #3 option (behind a 21 year old like Tatum) already proof enough that he's not the same player he once was?
More importantly, if you do look at him as (at best) a 30 year old guy who is a #3 option on a contender - how many teams out there are willing to commit $75M-$100M over the next 3-4 years for that type of player?
I don't know, man. I appreciate your perspective, but I think I don't think Hayward will getting $25M+ per year offers after this season unless he managed to average at least around 16, 5 and 3 on 46% / 36% / 80% shooting per 30 minutes of playing time. And if he is a #3 - #4 option on this Celtics team (which I believe he will be) then I think it's going to be hard for him to put up that type of raw production. I see him getting offers in the $18M - $22M per year range once this contract is over, and if that's the case then it's hard to see him throwing away a guaranteed $30M in his final year.
I think it's far more likely that Ainge either trades Jaylen Brown, or alternatively trades Hayward out to a team on his "preferred" list of suitors where he can then sign an updated contract for the next 3-4 seasons.
Thing is, if Tatum does show clear ability as a #2 option, the trading Brown may well look like the more appealing option. Hayward is a low ego, team first guy who (at age 30) will most likely be focused entirely on winning. Combine that with his versatile "swiss army knife" play style and ability to play multiple positions, and he makes for a pretty ideal #3 guy on a team with championship aspirations. It's unlikely he'd take any issue with being behind Kemba/Tatum in the pecking order.
Comparatively speaking Brown will still be young, and will likely still be eager to prove himself and show what he is capable of individually. He might desire the chance to showcase his ability under the spotlight on another team (e.g. Rozier) rather than sacrificing his personal milestones for team wins. For that reason Ainge may just decide that valuable as Brown is, Hayward is simply the better "team fit" moving forward.
Of course this is all speculation and nobody really has a clue how anything will go down. So many things could happen that could change everything beyond anybody's imagination - a key injury (knock on wood), a big trade, who knows.
Topic: Celtics (3-0) at Cavaliers (1-2) Preseason Game #4 10/15/19 (Read 37213 times)