FGAs per game Who should get what

[KG Living Legend]

 Okay some interesting stuff here when digging up some facts.

 Celtics avg 90 shots per game last year. Kemba Avg 20.5 shots per game last year which in my opinion needs to go down.

 The success of the Celtics is going to be in large part up to Kemba Walker and how he adapts to playing with much better teammates.

 He averaged 25.6 points per game last year on .434  percent from the field. Career .418% shooter. Not good, in his defense he's been playing on a very poor team with poor players.

 Kemba average 6 assist per game I'm expecting that to go up to at least eight  per game with better teammates, and I'd like to see his points per game down to about 20. I'd like to see kemba's shots attempt at about 17 per game.

 In his best year with you Todd, that was supposed to be Utah, Gordon Hayward average 22 points a game on only 15.8 shots a per game to show you how efficient of a player he was Gordon only took 8.8 shots per game last year that has to change he needs to get that back up to 15.

 We are already at 32 shots per game. Only 58 left.
 
 Tatum. 10.4 attempts his rookie season and 13.1 his sophomore let's give him another two attempts a game up to 15 and he's averaging about 18 points and seven rebounds a game.

 Jaylen Brown's career-high and shots per game was the second year at 11.5 I'm going to pencil him in right at that Mark. Let's call it 11 for number sake. 58 shots per game for the big four.

 Kanter and Smart combined will be about 16 shots per game bringing the number to 74. That leaves about 16 shots per game for the rest of the bench mob.

 Time Lord, Romeo Langford, carsen Edwards, Grant Williams, Semi, Theis, we'll have to just play the hot hand with those guys.

 I'd just love to see one guy in the starting lineup that is just a garbage man that gets almost everything off of putbacks in offensive rebounds really hoping timelord can step into that role.

Williams
Tatum
Hayward
Brown
Kemba

With Kanter, Smart, and Hopefully Romeo or Carsen Edwards can fill it up in a bench role.
 



 

 


 

[Celtics4ever]

I think we will need Kemba to take those 20 shots.  I think Tatum and Hayward should get a bunch of shots.   But the NBA is a star league and he is our sole star in reality.

But I am in favor of getting the ball to who is hot that night.   That does not happen that much with Stevens because he often rests guys who are starting to heat up in hopes of preserving them when all it does is break their rhythm.    I also think we should target mismatches which CBS does do that decent.   So shots night in and night out could vary by match up.

In the real world, guys trying to get paid take a lot of shots, so my guess is Brown takes a ton of shots next year for better or worse.  Does anyone really say you get X amount of shots tonight to players.  No coach I had ever did that and no plan survives contact with the enemy.

[Somebody]

As long as no player gets more shots than their abilities warrant because they're a golden boy I'm fine with anything. Just distribute the shots based on merit.

[Hoopvortex]

KG Living Legend -

This is yet another of your provocative threads. Kudos and yet another TP to you.

 Celtics avg 90 shots per game last year. Kemba Avg 20.5 shots per game last year which in my opinion needs to go down.

I agree. And I predict that he won’t, because Kemba will not be so ball-dominant as he’s been in Charlotte.

I would suggest that the number of FG attempts is not the best measure, however. In particular, Walker gets to the line substantially more than Kyrie and takes better care of the ball. Kemba’s usage last year was 31.5%, which will almost certainly come down. I hope so.

One of the things that the team has touted about him is his ability to play off the ball, which should diversify the offense and take some of the load off of him.

If you look at shooting numbers alone, Kyrie is clearly the better player. But Kemba is at the line more than 40% more than Kyrie, and is a AA free-throw shooter. Apart from the highly efficient scoring at the line that he does, all those trips also make it more likely for his teammates to get to the line (like Hayward, who’s also a frequent-flyer free-throw shooter).

He averaged 25.6 points per game last year on .434  percent from the field. Career .418% shooter. Not good…

We really need to get away from quoting FG%. Really.

Kemba Walker shot 8.9 threes per game last season. He shot .356 on those, which is pretty good shooting. He shot .494 on twos, which is also good shooting. It’s only when you combine those numbers that he deceptively appears to be a poor shooter. He’s not.

 

Kemba average 6 assist per game I'm expecting that to go up to at least eight  per game with better teammates, and I'd like to see his points per game down to about 20. I'd like to see kemba's shots attempt at about 17 per game.

I’m basically with you on this - take some of the responsibility for getting shots off of Kemba! But that doesn’t necessarily translate into more assists; if he’s off the ball more it might be someone else getting the assist… like Gordon…

In his best year with you Todd, that was supposed to be Utah,

How did you know my name is Todd? But he wasn’t with me, I swear it!

Now I know that he looked like a different player this past season, but you know what - he really WAS in Utah back then. That really WAS the same player!!!

Gordon Hayward average 22 points a game on only 15.8 shots a per game to show you how efficient of a player he was Gordon only took 8.8 shots per game last year that has to change he needs to get that back up to 15.

In all seriousness, Hayward is going to have a good year, a return to form. All signs point that way.

Time Lord, Romeo Langford, carsen Edwards, Grant Williams, Semi, Theis, we'll have to just play the hot hand with those guys.

I’ve done it to death, I guess, but Romeo is not going to get many chances to get a hot hand going. Maybe he’ll have a bonfire game like RJ Hunter did late in the season last year, but he just has too many guys in front of him to get a lot of meaningful minutes, and breaking into the rotation is very unlikely if they’re healthy.

I'd just love to see one guy in the starting lineup that is just a garbage man that gets almost everything off of putbacks in offensive rebounds really hoping timelord can step into that role.

Looks to me like he’s also got the potential to score off of rolls and early offense as well. The days of specialist garbagemen getting rotation minutes are probably over.

[MichiganAdam]

I think Kanter and his rebounding and tatum more minutes at the 4 over MM with improved rebounding will mean more second chance shots and more running, meaning more shots overall.  I'm saying they average 95/game.

[mmmmm]

 Okay some interesting stuff here when digging up some facts.

 Celtics avg 90 shots per game last year. Kemba Avg 20.5 shots per game last year which in my opinion needs to go down.

 The success of the Celtics is going to be in large part up to Kemba Walker and how he adapts to playing with much better teammates.

 He averaged 25.6 points per game last year on .434  percent from the field. Career .418% shooter. Not good, in his defense he's been playing on a very poor team with poor players.

Using FG% isn't really the right tool for looking at this.   A player shooting 39% but who took nothing but threes would be a very efficient scorer but a player hitting 46% while taking nothing but 2PT jumpers (and never getting to the FT line) would be an inefficient scorer.  And a third guy, hitting 46% on nothing but 2PT shots but who also got to the FT line on a third of his scoring attempts would be a very efficient scorer.

What you want to look at is scoring efficiency -- how efficiently a player converts scoring attempts into points.

And remember, FGA does not include all scoring attempts.  If a player drives to the hoop and gets fouled, missing the layup but getting two free throws, no FGA is counted.  But that IS a 'scoring attempt'.

The Celtics averaged 99.08 'true scoring attempts' per game last year.  That resulted in 90.5 FGA and 19.5 FTA per game.  But that was with some high-usage scorers who seem unable to draw fouls and get to the FT line.   Kyrie, Al, Tatum, Morris, Smart -- these guys took a ton of our shots but were terrible at getting to the FT line -- none had an FTA/FGA ratio above 22.8%.  Kyrie and Al were both _below_ 20%!

This year's scoring should involve a lot more usage by scorers such as Kemba, Gordon, Jaylen and Kanter -- all guys who have much higher FTA/FGA ratios.  In fact all of those 4 guys have posted FTA/FGA ratios well over 25% every year and most have typically been close to 30%.   Add in the possibility of rookies Romeo, Grant and Vincent (who all have histories of getting to the FT line) getting any sort of usage and overall our FT attempts should be significantly higher this year than last year.

Based on his getting to the FT line 5.5 times per game, Kemba averaged about 23 true scoring attempts per game.   And he converted those into points at a very nice 55.8% TS% (true scoring efficiency).   He has posted TS% rates between 55.4% and 57.2% consistency over the last 4 seasons.  So he is a well above average efficiency scorer.

It should be noted that both Isaiah and Kyrie similarly averaged TS% numbers in that range in the seasons before they came to Boston --- and then both posted even higher efficiencies in Brad's pick & roll heavy system.   So there is reason to expect that Kemba might be even more efficient in Brad's system as well.

Because he gets to the line at a decent rate (his FTA/FGA ratio has been right around 29% for most of his career) that results in pretty consistent scoring efficiency (as opposed to guys who rely solely on shot efficiency).   So I'm personally totally fine with Kemba continuing to take 20+ true scoring attempts per game.   That should form the main engine for the offense.

I would also like to see Gordon Hayward take close to that.  He is also, historically and pretty much again from January onward, an extremely efficient scorer who can score from all levels, including by getting to the line a lot.

I'd like to see Jaylen and Jayson each at somewhere around 17 scoring attempts per game.

I expect Kanter, assuming he plays around 25 mpg, to get his typical ~12-13 scoring attempts per game with around a 3rd of those coming off offensive rebounds -- I.E., not necessarily from running plays.  Cleaning up the scoring attempts by others.

Assuming health and nothing weird happening, I fully expect those 5 players to be our most efficient scorers under the heaviest usage.    All five of those guys should be north of 55% TS% and so I want the vast bulk of our shots to be taken by them.  We'll probably get high efficiency on selective shooting out of a few other players, but I don't expect any other players to get the same heavy usage that those guys should get.

Smart may or may not be able to reproduce the efficiency he shot at last year.  It was a big leap upward from prior season.  But I personally attest a lot of that to a real mechanical fix he made to his shooting form in the summer of 2017 finally paying off.   So he should at least be decent even with some regression.  I expect him to be on the floor at least 25 minutes so he's still likely to end up with around 8-ish scoring attempts per game.

Outside of those 6 guys,  the rest of the roster should be guys getting less than 8 scoring attempts per game.   I can see Carson getting a lot for a rookie, given his expected role as a gunner.   Once Romeo is ready, he might get a lot of usage off the bench as well, though I expect him to at least start the year in Maine just to get minutes and rebuild his game after all that rehab.

So, to summarize, I'd like to see (per game, with a little over 105 TSA/game):

Kemba & Gordon:  around 20 TSA each
Jaylen & Jayson:  around 17 TSA each
Kanter:  around 12-13 TSA
Smart:  around 8 TSA
Everyone else:   under 8 TSA each

Keep in mind that not everyone will play every game, especially bench players.

If we get that kind of shot distribution, and guys are able to deliver their expected scoring efficiencies, then our offense should be pretty potent.

[PhoSita]

I don't know about prescribing a certain amount of shots or a portion of the offense for any specific players.  I'd prefer things to work out a bit more naturally.


With that said, I think every team needs a clear cut offensive hierarchy.  A good team know where its points are likely to come from and which guys can be relied upon to create shots.


For this team it makes sense to me that Kemba should be the primary shot taker and initiator, with Tatum as the other scoring option who should have plenty of touches and plays run for him.

Hayward is the obvious choice for the second best playmaker / creator on the team, which should result in a good number of plays and touches.  However, I dont' think he will be or should be one of the top two guys in terms of scoring attempts, since he's naturally more of a facilitator.


Brown and Kanter should get their offense within the flow of whatever is called for the other guys.  I don't see it as ideal for either to have their number called specifically unless they're in a bench lineup or there are specific matchups that the team wants to exploit.

[Hoopvortex]

Brown and Kanter should get their offense within the flow of whatever is called for the other guys.  I don't see it as ideal for either to have their number called specifically unless they're in a bench lineup or there are specific matchups that the team wants to exploit.

You're not going to get your wish on this, in particular when it comes to Brown. That ship has sailed.

[Wretch]

I think Kanter and his rebounding and tatum more minutes at the 4 over MM with improved rebounding will mean more second chance shots and more running, meaning more shots overall.  I'm saying they average 95/game.

I would add that I expect the Cs to play at a higher pace than last year. Kyrie was great a getting his shot off in a half court offense and Horford was great passing out of the high post. With both those players gone it will be harder to score in half court sets. I expect the Cs to try to run more than last year out of necessity.

[Hoopvortex]

mmmmm -
Great work, great detail and ambitious post.

I would also like to see Gordon Hayward take close to that.  He is also, historically and pretty much again from January onward, an extremely efficient scorer who can score from all levels, including by getting to the line a lot.

Excellent point. I've been advocating that he become 6th man, as much as any reason so that he can get more touches.

--- and then both posted even higher efficiencies in Brad's pick & roll heavy system.   So there is reason to expect that Kemba might be even more efficient in Brad's system as well.

Part of the drama and uncertainty of Kemba coming to Boston is that HE has been a heavy p&r player, where Stevens has been below average for the amount of p&r (iirc, Boston was 20th  in % last season).

I believe that Kemba's ticket to higher efficiency is for him to play off the ball more often.
Apart from getting great mismatches, that would take some of the workload off him (perhaps so that he could have more energy to work on defense, just saying...).

[Mike Pemulis]

Tatum - 18, Walker - 15, Hayward - 13, Brown - 11, Kanter - 9, Smart - 8, Theis - 7, Semi - 3, Bob - 5, other guys.

[KG Living Legend]

KG Living Legend -

This is yet another of your provocative threads. Kudos and yet another TP to you.

 Celtics avg 90 shots per game last year. Kemba Avg 20.5 shots per game last year which in my opinion needs to go down.

I agree. And I predict that he won’t, because Kemba will not be so ball-dominant as he’s been in Charlotte.

I would suggest that the number of FG attempts is not the best measure, however. In particular, Walker gets to the line substantially more than Kyrie and takes better care of the ball. Kemba’s usage last year was 31.5%, which will almost certainly come down. I hope so.

One of the things that the team has touted about him is his ability to play off the ball, which should diversify the offense and take some of the load off of him.

If you look at shooting numbers alone, Kyrie is clearly the better player. But Kemba is at the line more than 40% more than Kyrie, and is a AA free-throw shooter. Apart from the highly efficient scoring at the line that he does, all those trips also make it more likely for his teammates to get to the line (like Hayward, who’s also a frequent-flyer free-throw shooter).

He averaged 25.6 points per game last year on .434  percent from the field. Career .418% shooter. Not good…

We really need to get away from quoting FG%. Really.

Kemba Walker shot 8.9 threes per game last season. He shot .356 on those, which is pretty good shooting. He shot .494 on twos, which is also good shooting. It’s only when you combine those numbers that he deceptively appears to be a poor shooter. He’s not.

 

Kemba average 6 assist per game I'm expecting that to go up to at least eight  per game with better teammates, and I'd like to see his points per game down to about 20. I'd like to see kemba's shots attempt at about 17 per game.

I’m basically with you on this - take some of the responsibility for getting shots off of Kemba! But that doesn’t necessarily translate into more assists; if he’s off the ball more it might be someone else getting the assist… like Gordon…

In his best year with you Todd, that was supposed to be Utah,

How did you know my name is Todd? But he wasn’t with me, I swear it!

Now I know that he looked like a different player this past season, but you know what - he really WAS in Utah back then. That really WAS the same player!!!

Gordon Hayward average 22 points a game on only 15.8 shots a per game to show you how efficient of a player he was Gordon only took 8.8 shots per game last year that has to change he needs to get that back up to 15.

In all seriousness, Hayward is going to have a good year, a return to form. All signs point that way.

Time Lord, Romeo Langford, carsen Edwards, Grant Williams, Semi, Theis, we'll have to just play the hot hand with those guys.

I’ve done it to death, I guess, but Romeo is not going to get many chances to get a hot hand going. Maybe he’ll have a bonfire game like RJ Hunter did late in the season last year, but he just has too many guys in front of him to get a lot of meaningful minutes, and breaking into the rotation is very unlikely if they’re healthy.

I'd just love to see one guy in the starting lineup that is just a garbage man that gets almost everything off of putbacks in offensive rebounds really hoping timelord can step into that role.

Looks to me like he’s also got the potential to score off of rolls and early offense as well. The days of specialist garbagemen getting rotation minutes are probably over.

 TP back To You Todd LoL. Thanks brother.

[footey]

I'm glad this thread was started.

We as fans can speculate what the right mix of shot taking should be.  It is our nature. We are not part of the team, just observers. We look at the stats and draw conclusions as to who is the best candidate to take the most shots.

But I would seriously hope that the players do not try to keep track of shots.  Shots should develop organically.  Ball and player movement offense is a starting point, to help break down the defense, in order to create better shots.  That should be the team's focus.  If the players, or even the coaches, start to worry about shot distribution, we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes of last year.  Shot distribution is an outcome of playing ball the right way.

Of course, if things break down at the end of the shot clock, you want the ball in the hands of the guys who can create their own shot, or the two guys who are best adept at pick and role. Maybe this is where the shot volume of Kemba will distinguish itself from the other players.

I also agree with Celtics4ever that we should take better advantage of feeding the hot shooter.  Some analytics suggest this concept is a myth, but all of us as former players, at any level, and as fans, beg to differ. 

[mmmmm]

Hayward is the obvious choice for the second best playmaker / creator on the team, which should result in a good number of plays and touches.  However, I dont' think he will be or should be one of the top two guys in terms of scoring attempts, since he's naturally more of a facilitator.

Well, except that Hayward has, historically been a much more efficient, volume scorer than anyone else on this team.  Even including his poor start to last year, he posted a 57.5% TS% -- higher than any of Kemba, Jaylen or Jayson.  And it was higher and higher as the season progressed as he got healthier and his USG creeped up.   By the end of last season almost all of his effectiveness numbers were at or above what they were in his last season at Utah.  What was still trailing (slightly) were his aggressiveness stats:  shots per touch.   Even that was trending up, though and not far off from where he was in Utah.

I love Tatum's potential, but he's not (yet) anywhere near the versatile and efficient scorer that Hayward is.   Tatum, at this point, is a shot maker and creates a little for himself off the dribble.  But Hayward is a point creator who can score efficiently from all levels in multiple ways, from shot making, dribble/drive and of course, getting to the FT line.

Assuming Hayward is pretty much fully recovered -- and while that's a question, there is a lot of reason to believe the answer is closer to 'yes' than 'no' -- he could very easily be the best player on this team.

[mmmmm]

mmmmm -
Great work, great detail and ambitious post.

I would also like to see Gordon Hayward take close to that.  He is also, historically and pretty much again from January onward, an extremely efficient scorer who can score from all levels, including by getting to the line a lot.

Excellent point. I've been advocating that he become 6th man, as much as any reason so that he can get more touches.

--- and then both posted even higher efficiencies in Brad's pick & roll heavy system.   So there is reason to expect that Kemba might be even more efficient in Brad's system as well.

Part of the drama and uncertainty of Kemba coming to Boston is that HE has been a heavy p&r player, where Stevens has been below average for the amount of p&r (iirc, Boston was 20th  in % last season).

I believe that Kemba's ticket to higher efficiency is for him to play off the ball more often.
Apart from getting great mismatches, that would take some of the workload off him (perhaps so that he could have more energy to work on defense, just saying...).

Yeah, I mentally tend to lump DHO in the basket with P&R since it is conceptually such a similar play.   Now, you would still come back with the fact that last year we were sort of in the middle with DHO plays, but that's largely because Kyrie doesn't like to play them.   But Kemba actually does like playing them and if we look back to when Isaiah was running the offense, Boston was #1 in percentage of DHO plays.    DHO has been a Brad Stevens staple since he came here ... up until Kyrie got here.

While all three players are slightly different from each other, I see Kemba as stylistically more like Isaiah (with a tendency to drive off the pick) than Kyrie (far more often pulling up into an ISO).

In fact, this last couple of Kyrie years we seemed to turn a lot of pick plays into ISOs as we were 7th and 8th in ISO percentage (compared to being 28th back with Isaiah).

Charlotte has been ranked low in ISO plays in all recent years, indicative that Kemba profiles more like Isaiah in this respect.

Short version:  I think we agree because DHO starts with Kemba off the ball.