Celtics win total set at 49.5 by Vegas

[fairweatherfan]

This is an extremely reasonable over/under haha. 2 wins higher or lower and my choice would be pretty easy. I'll go over anyway though.

[Moranis]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

3-4 seasons doesn't really matter to this discussion.  Only next year does and in that Kanter is a big downgrade on Horford.  It isn't just defensively either, he is offensively a downgrade as he is no where near the passer or floor spacer that Horford is.  Kanter is better scoring inside and because he is inside more is a more prolific rebounder, but you start putting Kanter out at the perimeter more often and he even loses that.

Kanter is not and never is going to be Al Horford.  And he doesn't need to be.  It's a wrong way to think about this.

We ran the offense through Al Horford because he had those point-forward skills.  We aren't going to run the same offense through a different big who has different skills.   More likely we will lean on a (I expect to be fully healthy) Gordon Hayward who has similar point-forward skills.   And we should structure the offense to take advantage of the skills that our big men have.  Not expect them to be other than what they are.   Kanter is really, really good at skills that can be leveraged by any good coach.

Similarly, you can't think as if we are going to run the defense the same way, trying to just drop-in a replacement for Horford, who is able to play outside the paint and switch on everything.   More likely, I expect we will switch less (especially with Kanter and Kemba) and probably use a lot of 1-4 zone.

There is a coaching challenge here, obviously.  Brad has a different-looking arsenal than he's had the last 3 years.  And it has to be used differently.  But it is still a very talented arsenal and if he's as good of a coach as he's supposed to be this team should be pretty good.

Kanter is different and does do things better than Horford, but he is less talented and not as good as Horford.  There really is no way around the big talent downgrade Boston suffered, especially down low. 

[mmmmm]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

3-4 seasons doesn't really matter to this discussion.  Only next year does and in that Kanter is a big downgrade on Horford.  It isn't just defensively either, he is offensively a downgrade as he is no where near the passer or floor spacer that Horford is.  Kanter is better scoring inside and because he is inside more is a more prolific rebounder, but you start putting Kanter out at the perimeter more often and he even loses that.

Kanter is not and never is going to be Al Horford.  And he doesn't need to be.  It's a wrong way to think about this.

We ran the offense through Al Horford because he had those point-forward skills.  We aren't going to run the same offense through a different big who has different skills.   More likely we will lean on a (I expect to be fully healthy) Gordon Hayward who has similar point-forward skills.   And we should structure the offense to take advantage of the skills that our big men have.  Not expect them to be other than what they are.   Kanter is really, really good at skills that can be leveraged by any good coach.

Similarly, you can't think as if we are going to run the defense the same way, trying to just drop-in a replacement for Horford, who is able to play outside the paint and switch on everything.   More likely, I expect we will switch less (especially with Kanter and Kemba) and probably use a lot of 1-4 zone.

There is a coaching challenge here, obviously.  Brad has a different-looking arsenal than he's had the last 3 years.  And it has to be used differently.  But it is still a very talented arsenal and if he's as good of a coach as he's supposed to be this team should be pretty good.

Kanter is different and does do things better than Horford, but he is less talented and not as good as Horford.  There really is no way around the big talent downgrade Boston suffered, especially down low.

No one is disputing that the talent at the 5 is less.  But that is only one position that has to be played.   The talent at 3 of the other 4 positions will likely be much better -- unless you believe that the loss of Marcus Morris cancels the almost certain improvements in Hayward, Brown & Tatum.   

[nickagneta]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

3-4 seasons doesn't really matter to this discussion.  Only next year does and in that Kanter is a big downgrade on Horford.  It isn't just defensively either, he is offensively a downgrade as he is no where near the passer or floor spacer that Horford is.  Kanter is better scoring inside and because he is inside more is a more prolific rebounder, but you start putting Kanter out at the perimeter more often and he even loses that.

Kanter is not and never is going to be Al Horford.  And he doesn't need to be.  It's a wrong way to think about this.

We ran the offense through Al Horford because he had those point-forward skills.  We aren't going to run the same offense through a different big who has different skills.   More likely we will lean on a (I expect to be fully healthy) Gordon Hayward who has similar point-forward skills.   And we should structure the offense to take advantage of the skills that our big men have.  Not expect them to be other than what they are.   Kanter is really, really good at skills that can be leveraged by any good coach.

Similarly, you can't think as if we are going to run the defense the same way, trying to just drop-in a replacement for Horford, who is able to play outside the paint and switch on everything.   More likely, I expect we will switch less (especially with Kanter and Kemba) and probably use a lot of 1-4 zone.

There is a coaching challenge here, obviously.  Brad has a different-looking arsenal than he's had the last 3 years.  And it has to be used differently.  But it is still a very talented arsenal and if he's as good of a coach as he's supposed to be this team should be pretty good.

Kanter is different and does do things better than Horford, but he is less talented and not as good as Horford.  There really is no way around the big talent downgrade Boston suffered, especially down low.

No one is disputing that the talent at the 5 is less.  But that is only one position that has to be played.   The talent at 3 of the other 4 positions will likely be much better -- unless you believe that the loss of Marcus Morris cancels the almost certain improvements in Hayward, Brown & Tatum.

There is no such thing as almost certain improvements. Brown and Tatum could easily stagnate...again(because their "almost certain improvements" didn't happen last year) and Hayward at the end of 2018-19 could be the guy that is here in 2019-20.

Add those uncertainties to the inarguable step back in talent and ability up front from Al, Baynes and Morris to Kanter, Poirier and an out of position Hayward or Tatum and that is where people are getting the idea things aren't as great as some may think this year

[Hoopvortex]

There is no such thing as almost certain improvements. Brown and Tatum could easily stagnate...again(because their "almost certain improvements" didn't happen last year) and Hayward at the end of 2018-19 could be the guy that is here in 2019-20.

A wise caution.

And yet, I believe in Brown and Tatum, don't think that it's probable that they won't progress, and am especially encouraged by what I've seen this summer.

About Hayward at the end of 18-19: I thought he finished the season well, the last three months especially.

Add those uncertainties to the inarguable step back in talent and ability up front from Al, Baynes and Morris to Kanter, Poirier and an out of position Hayward or Tatum and that is where people are getting the idea things aren't as great as some may think this year

Again, perfectly rational, more than a fair point, and even apart from whether or not Kemba is a downgrade from Kyrie (or Kyrie plus Rozier). As you say, this is inarguable.

The loss of Al Horford is hard to calculate, in particular: it's not obvious to the casual fan how important he was in leading and directing the team defense, for example (another good reason for Marcus Smart to be in the starting 5, btw - though it's true that bigs have a better view).

Baynes and Morris are lesser losses (though they point to the fact that Boston has lost size generally, or more exactly veteran size).

And yet...

Perhaps it's the August optimism that all teams and their fans always have, but despite your "inarguable" points (and I'm not arguing- you're right!), I see "a thousand flowers blooming" on Boston's roster, space (and shots) opening up for The Two Jays; Hayward returning from perpetual rehab wilderness, freeing him to do what he does; Hayward, Smart, and Kemba bringing leadership and teamwork; Kemba not having to carry the team, freeing him to do what HE does; rookies pushing, vets pulling; the emergence of RW3 into an impact player...

I'm predicting a big step forward for the young Celtics, and I'm taking the over.

51.

[Moranis]

Eh.   If we need to be a more offensive focused team instead of defensive, that doesn't really worry me that much.

All that matters ultimately is net rating.   Complain all you want about Kanter's supposed defensive failings, he's nevertheless a beast offensively and on the boards.   He may give up some, but he'll get his in return against pretty much most match ups.

interesting tidbit, though:  Portland was better defensively with Kanter on the floor (93.0) than not (108.9).   Funny that.  I guess the game is more more complex that simply saying, "Player X is a better defender than Player Y".   

Put me in saltlover's corner on this one.  I think the overall talent level is fine and good coaching will find a way to make it work.

I agree with this regarding Kanter.  Yeah, he is not exactly Horford but over the next 3-4 seasons, Kanter's production may be right there with him.  He will do different things but the rebounding boost will be nice to have.

3-4 seasons doesn't really matter to this discussion.  Only next year does and in that Kanter is a big downgrade on Horford.  It isn't just defensively either, he is offensively a downgrade as he is no where near the passer or floor spacer that Horford is.  Kanter is better scoring inside and because he is inside more is a more prolific rebounder, but you start putting Kanter out at the perimeter more often and he even loses that.

Kanter is not and never is going to be Al Horford.  And he doesn't need to be.  It's a wrong way to think about this.

We ran the offense through Al Horford because he had those point-forward skills.  We aren't going to run the same offense through a different big who has different skills.   More likely we will lean on a (I expect to be fully healthy) Gordon Hayward who has similar point-forward skills.   And we should structure the offense to take advantage of the skills that our big men have.  Not expect them to be other than what they are.   Kanter is really, really good at skills that can be leveraged by any good coach.

Similarly, you can't think as if we are going to run the defense the same way, trying to just drop-in a replacement for Horford, who is able to play outside the paint and switch on everything.   More likely, I expect we will switch less (especially with Kanter and Kemba) and probably use a lot of 1-4 zone.

There is a coaching challenge here, obviously.  Brad has a different-looking arsenal than he's had the last 3 years.  And it has to be used differently.  But it is still a very talented arsenal and if he's as good of a coach as he's supposed to be this team should be pretty good.

Kanter is different and does do things better than Horford, but he is less talented and not as good as Horford.  There really is no way around the big talent downgrade Boston suffered, especially down low.

No one is disputing that the talent at the 5 is less.  But that is only one position that has to be played.   The talent at 3 of the other 4 positions will likely be much better -- unless you believe that the loss of Marcus Morris cancels the almost certain improvements in Hayward, Brown & Tatum.

There is no such thing as almost certain improvements. Brown and Tatum could easily stagnate...again(because their "almost certain improvements" didn't happen last year) and Hayward at the end of 2018-19 could be the guy that is here in 2019-20.

Add those uncertainties to the inarguable step back in talent and ability up front from Al, Baynes and Morris to Kanter, Poirier and an out of position Hayward or Tatum and that is where people are getting the idea things aren't as great as some may think this year

I also worry a great deal about Tatum or Hayward playing almost full time at PF.  I just don't think that is a recipe for success long term.  Ideally one of them would start there, but there would be a credible back-up on the team such that they spend at least a fair amount of time at the more natural SF slot.  Plus, Wanamaker is now in the Rozier role and minutes and that seems like a problem.  I also don't like Brown at SG basically full time either.  He is much better suited at SF.  And that is the real problem with the team, 3 of the 4 best players are at their best playing SF.  The roster is quite simply still a trainwreck from a roster construction standpoint.