Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?

[celticsclay]

Are we really going to talk about how awesome Horford after every good game he has. We all knew he would likely earn his contract this year - it was the future years that were a concern. Also, he is still his inconsistent self as he recently put up a 5 point game.

I loved what Horford brought to the Cs and would have been happy to have him back at a reasonable price, but that wasn't happening. We have already seen us use those dollars for the future with Brown. Who knows if we would have been able to pay him if Horford were signed on for 4 more years. I also don't think we have had the proper chance to see what Kanter will bring to this club - for like 20% of the price of Horford.

On a related note (in several posts above), I maintain that Butler is a player more teams would rather pay big money to over Horford. I am not sure why this is even a debate. He is a two-way star wing in his prime. We literally just gave Jaylen similar money to Al in hopes that he one day turns into a player like Butler.

Thank you. I agree with this one hundred percent. It is extremely lame to bump this thread when he has a good game especially when everyone has agreed he would be good the first year. I didn’t think about bumping it when he had his 5 point game. I also thought repeatedly bumping an old thread to try and say I told you so was against the forum rules but it is a mod doing it, so not sure what it up with that.

Last night was further proof of why Horford was brought in by the Sixers.  They almost assuredly do not win that game without his presence.  I'll admit, the playoffs will be the real litmus test of whether or not Horford was worth it, but every win they get they otherwise wouldn't have helps the Sixers in their quest towards greater playoff success.  The Sixers look like the early favorite to be the top seed in the East.  Part of that is because they will be able to sustain the inevitable games missed by Embiid.

Maybe don't start a thread if you're not prepared to deal with others demonstrating to you why the premise in the OP might be wrong.

You keep insisting this year doesn't matter, but some of us are telling you the later years of this contract might very well be inconsequential.  Ultimately we won't know for a while where on that spectrum the truth lies.  I suppose we could all just stop talking about it altogether since nothing is going to be settled any time soon.....

Ouch!! That earned a TP from me.  14 pages of mostly sour grapes.

To update this thread al is absolutely cratering this month and there is substantial chatter he may need to come off the bench. Despite playing a few more minutes a game than last year al is now averaging a career worst in points, rebounds and shooting percentage and his defense has fallen off a cliff. He somehow is even down to 69% from the foul line. Is al injured or just rapidly washed up. I’ll admit I was wrong on how good I thought he could be this year. He has really imploded.ouch

[celticsclay]

Edit double post

[SparzWizard]

Maybe just a bad system he's in. I think just average Al here with the Celtics would help tremendously, even lifting them to the NBA Finals.

But IDK if Al's presence here would impact the signing of Kemba Walker. Losing Baynes would've fine if it meant acquiring Enes Kanter and maintaining Theis.

[Fierce1]

Maybe just a bad system he's in. I think just average Al here with the Celtics would help tremendously, even lifting them to the NBA Finals.

But IDK if Al's presence here would impact the signing of Kemba Walker. Losing Baynes would've fine if it meant acquiring Enes Kanter and maintaining Theis.

Celts used a sign and trade to acquire Kemba, so Celts would still have Enes and Theis.

[SHAQATTACK]

he seems to lost as to where he fits in.   kinda plays like our guys did around Kyrie.  Embiid the dominate player , Al has moved t the back of the bus .

[Fafnir]

Maybe just a bad system he's in. I think just average Al here with the Celtics would help tremendously, even lifting them to the NBA Finals.

But IDK if Al's presence here would impact the signing of Kemba Walker. Losing Baynes would've fine if it meant acquiring Enes Kanter and maintaining Theis.

Celts used a sign and trade to acquire Kemba, so Celts would still have Enes and Theis.

The Celtics sign and trade only happened weeks after the C's had the cap space to sign him outright. The C's had no way to know that Charlotte would want to pay Terry Rozier that contract. The C's aren't in a position to pursue Kemba at all without clearing the room in the first place. To get Al and Kemba would require the triple sign and trade which when all the tampering was happening we had no way of knowing would be possible. Terry was initially headed to Phoenix supposedly before they got in on Rubio. (additionally supposedly BKN was demanding the Memphis pick and more pieces to say yes to the Kyrie triple sign and trade)

Additionally Theis was signed with bird rights and Enes agreed to sign the room exception. He ended up taking the same contract under the MLE which was the actual exception the C's had once they pivoted to the Kemba/Terry sign and trade.

[Birdman]

Love Al but money was more important to him..plus he’s a 76er now so hope he fail big time

[celticsclay]

Love Al but money was more important to him..plus he’s a 76er now so hope he fail big time

I honestly think there is a reasonable chance they are going to trade him before the deadline. They also are having major chemistry issues and now their franchise player is frustrated. This team reminds me of a lot of the Dwayne Wade, IT, Lebron season from a few years ago.

[KGs Knee]

It's a long season, wake me up when the playoffs get here.

[Moranis]

So here are Horford's numbers in the games that Embiid has missed that Horford has played.

10/26 - 23 p, 9 r, 5 a 50%
11/02 - 25 p, 5 r, 7 a 50%
11/04 - 32 p, 5 r, 4 a 65%
11/13 - 14 p, 8 r, 2 a 27.8%
12/07 - 8 p, 5 r, 3 a 75%
12/15 - 10 p, 9 r, 5 a 33.3%
12/31 - 5 p, 3 r, 2 a 16.7%
01/09 - 17 p, 8 r, 6 a 63.6%

The Sixers are 4-4 in those games, which is better then they fared last year without Embiid in the game.  The next couple of weeks is where Horford gets a chance to prove his contract's value with Embiid going to be out.  If he can keep playing like he has without Embiid (which is on the whole better than when they play together), then you see why the Sixers acquired him.  They needed a guy to play when Embiid invariably missed games that could at least keep them floating.  If Horford falters and can't do it and the Sixers go into the tank, then the Sixers chose the wrong free agent.  Now is the time for Horford to step up and earn his keep. 

[celticsclay]

So here are Horford's numbers in the games that Embiid has missed that Horford has played.

10/26 - 23 p, 9 r, 5 a 50%
11/02 - 25 p, 5 r, 7 a 50%
11/04 - 32 p, 5 r, 4 a 65%
11/13 - 14 p, 8 r, 2 a 27.8%
12/07 - 8 p, 5 r, 3 a 75%
12/15 - 10 p, 9 r, 5 a 33.3%
12/31 - 5 p, 3 r, 2 a 16.7%
01/09 - 17 p, 8 r, 6 a 63.6%

The Sixers are 4-4 in those games, which is better then they fared last year without Embiid in the game.  The next couple of weeks is where Horford gets a chance to prove his contract's value with Embiid going to be out.  If he can keep playing like he has without Embiid (which is on the whole better than when they play together), then you see why the Sixers acquired him.  They needed a guy to play when Embiid invariably missed games that could at least keep them floating.  If Horford falters and can't do it and the Sixers go into the tank, then the Sixers chose the wrong free agent.  Now is the time for Horford to step up and earn his keep.

A few things. Last night was a good game, but he was certainly trending down the previous month even when Embid wasn't playing (and was awful when he was). This is a lot more concerning with a 33  year old than it would be with a 27 year old (he has also been described as a traffic cone on defense by analysts and sixers fans for his defensive play in December. The other big problem that doesn't go away even if he does play well with Embid out for a few weeks it that he has actually publicly complained about his role when Embid is playing: https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/01/nba-boston-celtics-former-celtic-al-horford-unhappy-with-offensive-role/

That is a big problem 3 months into a 4 year contract with a guy that is not going anywhere. I would also vehemently disagree that if the Sixers win a game  or two more while Embid is out right now but they still  can't play together that the contract was worth it. They won't win the championship with Embid out so if those two still can't play together in the playoffs it will be very bad. 

[celticsclay]

Horford tried to set back the clock yesterday and launched 16 shots. Unfortunately he only hit 6 and was -22 for the game. Not what you want for 30 million

[Phantom255x]

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Horford's contract is even the worst on his team.

Tobias Harris making 180M. Simmons making 170M...

Also, Horford was signed to be "Embiid insurance". He's done alright in that role. Could do better, but the Sixers rightfully prepared for Embiid missing some time during the season (either for rest or injuries)

[Moranis]

Obviously 6 of 16 isn't very good but he did finish with 16 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and a block with just 1 turnover.  Pretty much everyone on the Sixers was atrocious yesterday also.  They just got whipped by the Mavs

[celticsclay]

Obviously 6 of 16 isn't very good but he did finish with 16 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and a block with just 1 turnover.  Pretty much everyone on the Sixers was atrocious yesterday also.  They just got whipped by the Mavs

This is really interesting to me. We have all seen you use on off stats for a bunch of single games to make a point. Here Horford has a second worst minus 22 and you rattle off his counting stats. That is really interesting