Could Horford end up being the worst contract of offseason?

[Fafnir]

Turns out starting 3 offensive centers is a bad plan!

Al is a good stretch 5, but he's merely okay as a stretch 4. Add to that how clogged the paint is with Embiid/Simmons and to a lesser extent Harris (who still likes to drive or post mismatches like most bigger wings) and you have the offensive fall off into near replacement level.

Add to that that his D is up and down just like last year, but a bit more down as he's a year older....

[nickagneta]

Average Al put up 6 pts

Father Time is really taking a toll

Same as Harris, though Al only took 5 shots in his 22 minutes, while Harris took 12 shots in his 25 minutes.

Philly fans on Liberty Ballers are really (and, in my mind, rightfully) turning on Harris, as well as turning on the FO for giving him that bonkers contract. He's been essentially the exact same player since his Orlando days

Yeah Harris is the much larger problem.  Al is overpaid, but he is also paid the 4th most on the team (accounting for Simmons max kicking in) and they always knew that he was likely their 5th offensive option with a fully healthy squad.  Even right now as a 4th option, he is a fairly typical 4th option i.e. some games where he gets going and some games where they don't use him much.  I mean Brook Lopez is Milwaukee's 4th option and Donte DiVincenzo or George Hill is their 5th option.  Al, even with all the negative pub, is still better than those guys.  He is paid too much for that role, but you sometimes have to overpay to land a guy as a free agent.  Similarly, the Lakers 4th and 5th options are Danny Green and KCP (or maybe even Bradley) and the Lakers 3rd option, Kuzma comes off the bench so he doesn't even share a lot of touches with the top guys.  The Clippers have 4 great scorers and then players like Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverley, etc.  No question Horford is overpaid, but his actual production is fairly typical for a guy that is a 4th or 5th option on offense i.e. basically 12/7/4

His production is actually quite bad because he is shooting 44% from field and 31% from three as a big man while often looking like a traffic cone on defense. You really picked the wrong hill to die on with Horford not being a problem.

He is actually 45% from the field and 32% from 3, still not good, but Brook Lopez 41.5% from the field 28.7% from 3.  Danny Green is 41.7% from the field (though 37.3% from 3).  Shamet and Beverley are both around 43% from the field (though both are solid from 3).  This notion that Horford isn't a fairly typical 5th option seems strange to me.  Now he isn't paid like a typical 5th option, that is a fair criticism, but his production is about what you would expect from a guy that far down the chart.

Don't have a dog in this fight but want to mention:

Boston #4 option Gordon Hayward 17 PPG, 50.8% FG%, 37.8% 3PT%, 87.7 FT%, 60% TS%

Boston #5 option Daniel Theis 8.1 PPG, 55% FG%, 31.7% 3PT%, 70.1% FT%, 60.6% TS%

Just saying.

[keevsnick]

Turns out starting 3 offensive centers is a bad plan!

Al is a good stretch 5, but he's merely okay as a stretch 4. Add to that how clogged the paint is with Embiid/Simmons and to a lesser extent Harris (who still likes to drive or post mismatches like most bigger wings) and you have the offensive fall off into near replacement level.

Add to that that his D is up and down just like last year, but a bit more down as he's a year older....

Its kind of crazy, really they start 2 guys who should be Centers for sure in Horford and Embiid, 2 guys who are PF"s in Harris/Simmons (you can argue he's even a Center) and a SG in Richardson. These guys all operate in the same space, even Horford who can space is really better running pick and rolls with a guard like IT or Kyrie tha he is just standing in the corner.

I dont know how you fix this without a major trade of some sort.

[Moranis]

Average Al put up 6 pts

Father Time is really taking a toll

Same as Harris, though Al only took 5 shots in his 22 minutes, while Harris took 12 shots in his 25 minutes.

Philly fans on Liberty Ballers are really (and, in my mind, rightfully) turning on Harris, as well as turning on the FO for giving him that bonkers contract. He's been essentially the exact same player since his Orlando days

Yeah Harris is the much larger problem.  Al is overpaid, but he is also paid the 4th most on the team (accounting for Simmons max kicking in) and they always knew that he was likely their 5th offensive option with a fully healthy squad.  Even right now as a 4th option, he is a fairly typical 4th option i.e. some games where he gets going and some games where they don't use him much.  I mean Brook Lopez is Milwaukee's 4th option and Donte DiVincenzo or George Hill is their 5th option.  Al, even with all the negative pub, is still better than those guys.  He is paid too much for that role, but you sometimes have to overpay to land a guy as a free agent.  Similarly, the Lakers 4th and 5th options are Danny Green and KCP (or maybe even Bradley) and the Lakers 3rd option, Kuzma comes off the bench so he doesn't even share a lot of touches with the top guys.  The Clippers have 4 great scorers and then players like Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverley, etc.  No question Horford is overpaid, but his actual production is fairly typical for a guy that is a 4th or 5th option on offense i.e. basically 12/7/4

His production is actually quite bad because he is shooting 44% from field and 31% from three as a big man while often looking like a traffic cone on defense. You really picked the wrong hill to die on with Horford not being a problem.

He is actually 45% from the field and 32% from 3, still not good, but Brook Lopez 41.5% from the field 28.7% from 3.  Danny Green is 41.7% from the field (though 37.3% from 3).  Shamet and Beverley are both around 43% from the field (though both are solid from 3).  This notion that Horford isn't a fairly typical 5th option seems strange to me.  Now he isn't paid like a typical 5th option, that is a fair criticism, but his production is about what you would expect from a guy that far down the chart.

Don't have a dog in this fight but want to mention:

Boston #4 option Gordon Hayward 17 PPG, 50.8% FG%, 37.8% 3PT%, 87.7 FT%, 60% TS%

Boston #5 option Daniel Theis 8.1 PPG, 55% FG%, 31.7% 3PT%, 70.1% FT%, 60.6% TS%

Just saying.

Hayward is a bit abnormal as 4th options go.  That said, Smart is clearly Boston's 5th option and Kanter is probably ahead of Theis as well as offensive options go (obviously they optimally don't start, so I get listing Theis, but someone like Kuzma is clearly the Lakers 3rd option and he doesn't start, the Clippers and Rockets have their 3rd option come off the bench as well, etc.).  Horford compares favorably with all of those guys as 5th options go (even Theis).  Horford rebounds, passes, etc. as well as Theis and even the long range shooting is better (though Theis shoots a lot less).  Horford compares favorably with Mike Conley, Danuel House, Myles Turner.  Those are Horford's peers in role on their respective teams. 

You see his contract and think man he isn't producing for someone with that level of contract, but then when you break it down and realize he is a 5th option and actually look at his production it is on par with or better than the other top tier teams in the league when looking at their 5th options.  Without question, overpaid for his role, but producing as well, if not better, than most teams 5th option. 

[Who]

They can't fix the offense with the personnel they have. They have to win with their defense & rebounding. Their subpar offense will be enough (largely thanks to Embiid) to make them competitive against anyone if their defense & rebounding is top notch.

They were always going to have a dodgy offense. It is their defense & rebounding that matters most. That is where their concentration has got to be - in terms of winning postseason games.

That is where their team identity is (or will fail to be).

[celticsclay]

Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

Was just admiring this. When I started this thread you had Horford making a top 30ish impact (and you added on a drive by insult saying I did not grasp how much money players were making). Now we are saying he is doing ok as a 5th option (would be top 120-150 impact, far cry from top 30). Quite a slip for 3 months!

[SHAQATTACK]

Turns out starting 3 offensive centers is a bad plan!

Al is a good stretch 5, but he's merely okay as a stretch 4. Add to that how clogged the paint is with Embiid/Simmons and to a lesser extent Harris (who still likes to drive or post mismatches like most bigger wings) and you have the offensive fall off into near replacement level.

Add to that that his D is up and down just like last year, but a bit more down as he's a year older....

evrybody knows im a big man advocate ....but like you , this THREE center size dudes is kinda dumb .  If they had KG or KD skills and their speed and quickness ....maybe

[Moranis]

Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

Was just admiring this. When I started this thread you had Horford making a top 30ish impact (and you added on a drive by insult saying I did not grasp how much money players were making). Now we are saying he is doing ok as a 5th option (would be top 120-150 impact, far cry from top 30). Quite a slip for 3 months!

When I posted that he was going to be the 5th option.  He obviously hasn't had a top 30ish impact, but he is significantly more impactful than 120.  I'd peg him around a top 50 impact to winning (more than guys like Harris and Simmons that are performing better than he is on his own team).  Horford has done exactly what the Sixers have needed him to do, i.e. allow the team to not disappear when Embiid is not in the game.  This is readily apparent in the games Embiid has missed that Horford has played as the Sixers are 11-6 in those games.  Last year without Embiid they were 8-10.  That is where Horford has earned his keep and where his value has been.  He was never going to put up huge numbers, but he was and absolutely has positively affected the Sixers where it matters most i.e. wins and losses.  Horford's impact has always exceeded his production.  That was true in Atlanta, it was true in Boston, and it has been true in Philadelphia.  Average Al is considerably more impactful than his counting stats, but his counting stats are perfectly in line with other top tier teams 5th options.  Those are not the same thing.

[tonydelk]

Turns out starting 3 offensive centers is a bad plan!

Al is a good stretch 5, but he's merely okay as a stretch 4. Add to that how clogged the paint is with Embiid/Simmons and to a lesser extent Harris (who still likes to drive or post mismatches like most bigger wings) and you have the offensive fall off into near replacement level.

Add to that that his D is up and down just like last year, but a bit more down as he's a year older....

evrybody knows im a big man advocate ....but like you , this THREE center size dudes is kinda dumb .  If they had KG or KD skills and their speed and quickness ....maybe

I don't think Al's skill level has dropped but I do think he's overpaid and a bad fit in Philly.  Philly is the only reason he is not on a 1 year deal in Boston right now.  I don't think anyone else was paying that much money over that many years.  They overpaid and I hope it bites them in the arse. 

[celticsclay]

Al Horford has the 23rd highest contract for the upcoming season, tied with Nikola Vucevic.  He probably is a bit worse than that as a player, but I'd say he should still have top 30ish impact when accounting for everything and he obviously is making more than anyone on a rookie scale contract. 

In other words, Horford is paid about where you would expect based on his perceived production.  This just seems like a case of not fully grasping just how much money players are making these days.  Everyone makes a ton of money.

Was just admiring this. When I started this thread you had Horford making a top 30ish impact (and you added on a drive by insult saying I did not grasp how much money players were making). Now we are saying he is doing ok as a 5th option (would be top 120-150 impact, far cry from top 30). Quite a slip for 3 months!

When I posted that he was going to be the 5th option.  He obviously hasn't had a top 30ish impact, but he is significantly more impactful than 120.  I'd peg him around a top 50 impact to winning (more than guys like Harris and Simmons that are performing better than he is on his own team).  Horford has done exactly what the Sixers have needed him to do, i.e. allow the team to not disappear when Embiid is not in the game.  This is readily apparent in the games Embiid has missed that Horford has played as the Sixers are 11-6 in those games.  Last year without Embiid they were 8-10.  That is where Horford has earned his keep and where his value has been.  He was never going to put up huge numbers, but he was and absolutely has positively affected the Sixers where it matters most i.e. wins and losses.  Horford's impact has always exceeded his production.  That was true in Atlanta, it was true in Boston, and it has been true in Philadelphia.  Average Al is considerably more impactful than his counting stats, but his counting stats are perfectly in line with other top tier teams 5th options.  Those are not the same thing.

What do you think would happen if you just wrote out "Yea I was wrong on that one, he has been way worse than I expected?" I am really curious why you have such an aversion to saying something like this. It is clearly the case here.

Related to your comments that he is having a "top 50 impact to winning" how would you think the best way to demonstrate that is? For example you say he has more of an impact than Simmons despite al have 3.7 win shares and Ben Simmons having 6.7 despite playing on the same team and Harris is at 4.3

[smokeablount]

Average Al put up 6 pts

Father Time is really taking a toll

Same as Harris, though Al only took 5 shots in his 22 minutes, while Harris took 12 shots in his 25 minutes.

Philly fans on Liberty Ballers are really (and, in my mind, rightfully) turning on Harris, as well as turning on the FO for giving him that bonkers contract. He's been essentially the exact same player since his Orlando days

Yeah Harris is the much larger problem.  Al is overpaid, but he is also paid the 4th most on the team (accounting for Simmons max kicking in) and they always knew that he was likely their 5th offensive option with a fully healthy squad.  Even right now as a 4th option, he is a fairly typical 4th option i.e. some games where he gets going and some games where they don't use him much.  I mean Brook Lopez is Milwaukee's 4th option and Donte DiVincenzo or George Hill is their 5th option.  Al, even with all the negative pub, is still better than those guys.  He is paid too much for that role, but you sometimes have to overpay to land a guy as a free agent.  Similarly, the Lakers 4th and 5th options are Danny Green and KCP (or maybe even Bradley) and the Lakers 3rd option, Kuzma comes off the bench so he doesn't even share a lot of touches with the top guys.  The Clippers have 4 great scorers and then players like Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverley, etc.  No question Horford is overpaid, but his actual production is fairly typical for a guy that is a 4th or 5th option on offense i.e. basically 12/7/4

His production is actually quite bad because he is shooting 44% from field and 31% from three as a big man while often looking like a traffic cone on defense. You really picked the wrong hill to die on with Horford not being a problem.

He is actually 45% from the field and 32% from 3, still not good, but Brook Lopez 41.5% from the field 28.7% from 3.  Danny Green is 41.7% from the field (though 37.3% from 3).  Shamet and Beverley are both around 43% from the field (though both are solid from 3).  This notion that Horford isn't a fairly typical 5th option seems strange to me.  Now he isn't paid like a typical 5th option, that is a fair criticism, but his production is about what you would expect from a guy that far down the chart.

Don't have a dog in this fight but want to mention:

Boston #4 option Gordon Hayward 17 PPG, 50.8% FG%, 37.8% 3PT%, 87.7 FT%, 60% TS%

Boston #5 option Daniel Theis 8.1 PPG, 55% FG%, 31.7% 3PT%, 70.1% FT%, 60.6% TS%

Just saying.

Hayward is a bit abnormal as 4th options go.  That said, Smart is clearly Boston's 5th option and Kanter is probably ahead of Theis as well as offensive options go (obviously they optimally don't start, so I get listing Theis, but someone like Kuzma is clearly the Lakers 3rd option and he doesn't start, the Clippers and Rockets have their 3rd option come off the bench as well, etc.).  Horford compares favorably with all of those guys as 5th options go (even Theis).  Horford rebounds, passes, etc. as well as Theis and even the long range shooting is better (though Theis shoots a lot less).  Horford compares favorably with Mike Conley, Danuel House, Myles Turner.  Those are Horford's peers in role on their respective teams. 

You see his contract and think man he isn't producing for someone with that level of contract, but then when you break it down and realize he is a 5th option and actually look at his production it is on par with or better than the other top tier teams in the league when looking at their 5th options.  Without question, overpaid for his role, but producing as well, if not better, than most teams 5th option.

The issue is that to a 'contending team,' a vastly overpaid #5 option is a bigger problem than a #5 option producing at slightly below average levels.  The discussion is about whether his contract is bad.

[Phantom255x]

The Sixers basically spent 5-6 years of sucking to end up as a 5 or 6-seed with over 290M combined going to Harris and Horford. Meanwhile, their two star players are extremely flawed (and in Embiid's case, injury prone) and frankly, it doesn't seem like either of them is working on improving more.

Also, I find it hilarious when folks on here say that the Celtics were "overrated" in their 2017-2018 playoff run, but then act like the Sixers (who lost in the SECOND ROUND, not ECF or Finals) are a phenomenal team and don't acknowledge that maybe, just maybe the Sixers expectations this season were overstated because of last year's playoffs.  Butler was their best player last postseason and he left, as did Reddick who was their 2nd best pure shooter.

[celticsclay]

Average Al put up 6 pts

Father Time is really taking a toll

Same as Harris, though Al only took 5 shots in his 22 minutes, while Harris took 12 shots in his 25 minutes.

Philly fans on Liberty Ballers are really (and, in my mind, rightfully) turning on Harris, as well as turning on the FO for giving him that bonkers contract. He's been essentially the exact same player since his Orlando days

Yeah Harris is the much larger problem.  Al is overpaid, but he is also paid the 4th most on the team (accounting for Simmons max kicking in) and they always knew that he was likely their 5th offensive option with a fully healthy squad.  Even right now as a 4th option, he is a fairly typical 4th option i.e. some games where he gets going and some games where they don't use him much.  I mean Brook Lopez is Milwaukee's 4th option and Donte DiVincenzo or George Hill is their 5th option.  Al, even with all the negative pub, is still better than those guys.  He is paid too much for that role, but you sometimes have to overpay to land a guy as a free agent.  Similarly, the Lakers 4th and 5th options are Danny Green and KCP (or maybe even Bradley) and the Lakers 3rd option, Kuzma comes off the bench so he doesn't even share a lot of touches with the top guys.  The Clippers have 4 great scorers and then players like Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverley, etc.  No question Horford is overpaid, but his actual production is fairly typical for a guy that is a 4th or 5th option on offense i.e. basically 12/7/4

His production is actually quite bad because he is shooting 44% from field and 31% from three as a big man while often looking like a traffic cone on defense. You really picked the wrong hill to die on with Horford not being a problem.

He is actually 45% from the field and 32% from 3, still not good, but Brook Lopez 41.5% from the field 28.7% from 3.  Danny Green is 41.7% from the field (though 37.3% from 3).  Shamet and Beverley are both around 43% from the field (though both are solid from 3).  This notion that Horford isn't a fairly typical 5th option seems strange to me.  Now he isn't paid like a typical 5th option, that is a fair criticism, but his production is about what you would expect from a guy that far down the chart.

Don't have a dog in this fight but want to mention:

Boston #4 option Gordon Hayward 17 PPG, 50.8% FG%, 37.8% 3PT%, 87.7 FT%, 60% TS%

Boston #5 option Daniel Theis 8.1 PPG, 55% FG%, 31.7% 3PT%, 70.1% FT%, 60.6% TS%

Just saying.

Hayward is a bit abnormal as 4th options go.  That said, Smart is clearly Boston's 5th option and Kanter is probably ahead of Theis as well as offensive options go (obviously they optimally don't start, so I get listing Theis, but someone like Kuzma is clearly the Lakers 3rd option and he doesn't start, the Clippers and Rockets have their 3rd option come off the bench as well, etc.).  Horford compares favorably with all of those guys as 5th options go (even Theis).  Horford rebounds, passes, etc. as well as Theis and even the long range shooting is better (though Theis shoots a lot less).  Horford compares favorably with Mike Conley, Danuel House, Myles Turner.  Those are Horford's peers in role on their respective teams. 

You see his contract and think man he isn't producing for someone with that level of contract, but then when you break it down and realize he is a 5th option and actually look at his production it is on par with or better than the other top tier teams in the league when looking at their 5th options.  Without question, overpaid for his role, but producing as well, if not better, than most teams 5th option.

The issue is that to a 'contending team,' a vastly overpaid #5 option is a bigger problem than a #5 option producing at slightly below average levels.  The discussion is about whether his contract is bad.

I mean there are some pretty impressive mental gymnastics being done here to just avoid admitting the contract was worse than he thoughts lol

[Moranis]

Average Al put up 6 pts

Father Time is really taking a toll

Same as Harris, though Al only took 5 shots in his 22 minutes, while Harris took 12 shots in his 25 minutes.

Philly fans on Liberty Ballers are really (and, in my mind, rightfully) turning on Harris, as well as turning on the FO for giving him that bonkers contract. He's been essentially the exact same player since his Orlando days

Yeah Harris is the much larger problem.  Al is overpaid, but he is also paid the 4th most on the team (accounting for Simmons max kicking in) and they always knew that he was likely their 5th offensive option with a fully healthy squad.  Even right now as a 4th option, he is a fairly typical 4th option i.e. some games where he gets going and some games where they don't use him much.  I mean Brook Lopez is Milwaukee's 4th option and Donte DiVincenzo or George Hill is their 5th option.  Al, even with all the negative pub, is still better than those guys.  He is paid too much for that role, but you sometimes have to overpay to land a guy as a free agent.  Similarly, the Lakers 4th and 5th options are Danny Green and KCP (or maybe even Bradley) and the Lakers 3rd option, Kuzma comes off the bench so he doesn't even share a lot of touches with the top guys.  The Clippers have 4 great scorers and then players like Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverley, etc.  No question Horford is overpaid, but his actual production is fairly typical for a guy that is a 4th or 5th option on offense i.e. basically 12/7/4

His production is actually quite bad because he is shooting 44% from field and 31% from three as a big man while often looking like a traffic cone on defense. You really picked the wrong hill to die on with Horford not being a problem.

He is actually 45% from the field and 32% from 3, still not good, but Brook Lopez 41.5% from the field 28.7% from 3.  Danny Green is 41.7% from the field (though 37.3% from 3).  Shamet and Beverley are both around 43% from the field (though both are solid from 3).  This notion that Horford isn't a fairly typical 5th option seems strange to me.  Now he isn't paid like a typical 5th option, that is a fair criticism, but his production is about what you would expect from a guy that far down the chart.

Don't have a dog in this fight but want to mention:

Boston #4 option Gordon Hayward 17 PPG, 50.8% FG%, 37.8% 3PT%, 87.7 FT%, 60% TS%

Boston #5 option Daniel Theis 8.1 PPG, 55% FG%, 31.7% 3PT%, 70.1% FT%, 60.6% TS%

Just saying.

Hayward is a bit abnormal as 4th options go.  That said, Smart is clearly Boston's 5th option and Kanter is probably ahead of Theis as well as offensive options go (obviously they optimally don't start, so I get listing Theis, but someone like Kuzma is clearly the Lakers 3rd option and he doesn't start, the Clippers and Rockets have their 3rd option come off the bench as well, etc.).  Horford compares favorably with all of those guys as 5th options go (even Theis).  Horford rebounds, passes, etc. as well as Theis and even the long range shooting is better (though Theis shoots a lot less).  Horford compares favorably with Mike Conley, Danuel House, Myles Turner.  Those are Horford's peers in role on their respective teams. 

You see his contract and think man he isn't producing for someone with that level of contract, but then when you break it down and realize he is a 5th option and actually look at his production it is on par with or better than the other top tier teams in the league when looking at their 5th options.  Without question, overpaid for his role, but producing as well, if not better, than most teams 5th option.

The issue is that to a 'contending team,' a vastly overpaid #5 option is a bigger problem than a #5 option producing at slightly below average levels.  The discussion is about whether his contract is bad.

Actually that discussion wasn't, it as about his role.  The thread is about his contract and I acknowledged he is overpaid, as I've done consistently in this thread.  I disagree he has the worst contract of the offseason.  I think Harris, from his own team, signed a worse contract.  I think there are also several other contenders for worst contract of the offseason.  It will probably take years to really know, but at this point Philly has gotten about what they should have reasonably expected to get from Horford and the Sixers have been significantly better without Embiid than they've been in any other season of Embiid's career.  That is why they signed Horford and in that he has been a huge success.

[Moranis]

Related to your comments that he is having a "top 50 impact to winning" how would you think the best way to demonstrate that is? For example you say he has more of an impact than Simmons despite al have 3.7 win shares and Ben Simmons having 6.7 despite playing on the same team and Harris is at 4.3

WS are based largely on counting stats.  Horford has poor counting stats.  But as I said, they Sixers are 11-6 in games with Horford without Embiid.  Last year, and every other year of Embiid's career, the Sixers have been a well below .500 team without Embiid on the court.  That isn't the case this year. 

As for actual metrics, you can look at on/off numbers and see that the Sixers are actually worse with Simmons on the court than when he is not on the court (-1.4 per 100 possessions).  Per 100 possessions, Harris is at +3 and Horford at +2.3, but when you realize that Horford is often in the game when Embiid is not, I think you can reasonably conclude that Horford impacts winning more than Harris.  Just looking at Embiid, I think illustrates that.  Every year of his career, before this one, Embiid was at least +10 per 100 possessions in the on/off numbers.  This year he is down to +3.4.  I believe a large reason for that is Horford, who quite simply is a better player by a wide margin to Embiid's prior back-up centers.

If you look at counting stats, you will never really see Horford's value, but he has always had a great impact to winning.  It is one of the reasons why every single team he has ever played on has made the playoffs (I'm not sure there are many players in league history with 12+ year careers that can say that).  Average Al's impact is much greater than the box score counting stats and always has been.