Notable Misses with Yabu pick

[GreenCoffeeBean]

LeVert was my binkie. It looks like he will be available in a couple years now that KI and KD are there.

[KG Living Legend]

At the time 16 felt too high for Levert but I was hoping he was there at 23. I think Zizic was a solid pick at 23, you can't always find the mid round gold dust. Yabu at 16 was basically just someone who would agree to be stashed. We were shopping that pick hard before we made it

 Levert was not too high at #16.

 Yabu was the pick and he was trash.
 
 Brogdon was also seem as a reach at 16. How stupid is that now.

 My point is this. If you really like a player. Trust your instincts and not the experts.

 Brogdon or Levert would have been great picks.

[spikelovetheCelts]

Let’s be honest.  Danny has more misses then hits in the draft outside the top 14. 

I would suspect that is true of almost all GMs.  The Spurs have historically nailed late #1s consistently.  Most other franchises don't.

The Raptors won a championship with a team of players drafted late. Yabu was to be a stash I will give Danny some grace. Bradley and KO have done well. Yabu I don't think Brad was in on. I think Brad had the say on these picks this year. Danny is not a Top 5 drafter for sure. We only now have the J's from the Trade.
Hopefully Romeo will be great.

[hwangjini_1]

Let’s be honest.  Danny has more misses then hits in the draft outside the top 14. 

I would suspect that is true of almost all GMs.  The Spurs have historically nailed late #1s consistently.  Most other franchises don't.

suspect no more. lots of analyses show that roughly 25% of picks after #20 dont make it long in the nba or have limited impact.

oh, and i once, long ago, did that analysis for SA picks, using "they missed this star player" as the criteria (i.e. the modus operandi of some CS posters) they came off looking like fools and buffoons year after year.

that late in the draft, it hard to say "they should have picked player X who is now a star" is your basis for judging success. early in the draft? sure, i agree you can say that. but once outside the lottery it is more meaningful to assess success by the number of successful nba players (not stars). and that number is notoriously low.

[RJ87]

Such a hindsight thread.

I remember vividly how so many people thought Yabu had Draymond potential and people thought Zizic was the center of the future.

[Fafnir]

Such a hindsight thread.

I remember vividly how so many people thought Yabu had Draymond potential and people thought Zizic was the center of the future.

Yup, plus the fun survivor-ship bias when looking at players who were injury red flagged. (Lavert/Brogdon)

[Emmette Bryant]

Don't forget in 2016 Danny drafted and traded Deyonta Davis and Rade Zagorac to Memphis.

In return the Celtics acquired the Clippers #1 pick for 2019.

I believe that this was the pick that was traded to the Sixers for Matisse Thybulle.

So the Celtics get Carson Edwards plus a future #1 pick for those two late 2016 picks.

[Sophomore]

scouting seems to be incredibly hard

Let’s be honest.  Danny has more misses then hits in the draft outside the top 14.  How many of those picks have actually panned out compared to the guys he didn’t pick.  While dannybhas an eye for roster fillers and locker room guys with these mid round picks, other GM’s are pulling down starters and stars.  This needs fixed.  We can’t keep trading for talent, eventually the pull drys up.

Let's wait and see on how this year's class comes out before deciding.

I'd say he did very well in his first few drafts (Avery Bradley 19, Rajon Rondo 22, Al Jefferson 15, Tony Allen 25), hasn't done as well in recent years, and (hopefully!) is recovering with Time Lord, Langford, the Williamses, and Edwards.

[bdm860]

Let’s be honest.  Danny has more misses then hits in the draft outside the top 14. 

I would suspect that is true of almost all GMs.  The Spurs have historically nailed late #1s consistently.  Most other franchises don't.

Even the Spurs have plenty of misses or guys they kick out the door after a season or two.

I really dislike this sort of lazy analysis.

I think people think GMs drafting success rate should be like a FT%.  If you're good you're hitting 80%+, and if you're great you're hitting 90%+.

Really it should be look at like a baseball batting average.  .250 is average, .300 is good .350 is great.  And even then only 15% of your hits are going to be home runs, most of those hits are going to be singles or doubles.


And it's also kind of like social media lifestyle comparison/depression.  When you look at your feed and it seems like everybody is going on vacation or buying a brand new car or house, how come you're not?  Well when you have hundreds of friends, the odds are somebody is always getting a new house or car or going on vacation.  So when you play in a league where 60+ players come in every year across 29 other teams, it can seem like everybody is doing great at the draft but you.

[W8ting2McHale]

Don't forget in 2016 Danny drafted and traded Deyonta Davis and Rade Zagorac to Memphis.

In return the Celtics acquired the Clippers #1 pick for 2019.

I believe that this was the pick that was traded to the Sixers for Matisse Thybulle.

So the Celtics get Carson Edwards plus a future #1 pick for those two late 2016 picks.

Thanks for that. It’s nice to see someone paying attention instead of all the hot takes.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

There are other circumstances that many NBA fans neglect in the development of players. Even if you read different books by Malcolm Gladwell you start to realize success cannot be reduced to one thing (ie talent). There are plenty of talented basketball players. Some are more talented than others, but especially late the draft, teams have taken all the sure talents. That those players are ranked on draft boards shows that teams know they have talent, but their success is determined by many other mitigating factors.

For example, some guys who are taken later in the draft carry a chip on their shoulder that fuels their play. It's fair to ask whether or not they would be as successful had they been taken earlier in the draft.

Another circumstantial item that affects player development is personal matters, of which NBA fans know very little. What kind of friends/girlfriends do players have? Can they follow them to a certain draft location? Will they be a positive or negative impact? We hear of the worst examples of influence as fans, but what about an influential friend who's encouragement and responsibility helps a player eat more healthy, get to sleep on time, workout, and gain confidence?

Or what about veteran presence on the team? What about playing time? What about the player's personality and how he connects with coaches and trainers? What about the coaches' and trainers' personalities?

Player success is not a static thing. It's not set in stone like NBA 2K. Players that are drafted later and have success speak more to the quality of the franchises that select them (and their player development) than it speaks to a GM who drafts early "missing" someone.

In those terms, I'm happy with the Celtics' player development system. They could improve for sure. This is the second time they draft an overweight big who ate himself out of the league. That's frustrating.

Still I think the Celtics are above average to good at player development. And I think once we develop a firmer system and instill more foundational players, players will be able to develop better around them.

[slamtheking]

 #16 Yabu
 #23 Zizic

 17 Baldwin 18 Ellenson

19 Beasley athletic scorer was not interested
20 Lavert I was intrigued by him, I take guys like him

27 Siakam
28 Skal
29 Dejounte Murray
30 D Jones
31 Deyonta Davis
32 Zubac
33 Diallo, liked him prefraft
35 Brogdon

 I was personally interested in this entire group above.

 I didn't scout Siakim at all. I loved Levert the most. Brogdon and Diallo.

Crazy we could have had

Jaylen Brown
Caris Levert
Paskal Siakim
Malcolm Brogdon
Zubac or Diallo

Last two are if we never made the trade for two seconds for future first.

You should cross every name off this list who was not a potential draft-and-stash player. Those 2 picks were not going to be used for anyone who would have taken up cap space that year. Boston drafted Brown with #3 and 2 players to stash overseas. They used the cap space to sign Horford and Hayward.

this.

the goal after Brown was drafting players he could stash, period.  I have little doubt that if Danny was drafting with a goal of bringing them onto the team immediately, he'd have taken players other than Yabu and Zizic.

[Moranis]

 #16 Yabu
 #23 Zizic

 17 Baldwin 18 Ellenson

19 Beasley athletic scorer was not interested
20 Lavert I was intrigued by him, I take guys like him

27 Siakam
28 Skal
29 Dejounte Murray
30 D Jones
31 Deyonta Davis
32 Zubac
33 Diallo, liked him prefraft
35 Brogdon

 I was personally interested in this entire group above.

 I didn't scout Siakim at all. I loved Levert the most. Brogdon and Diallo.

Crazy we could have had

Jaylen Brown
Caris Levert
Paskal Siakim
Malcolm Brogdon
Zubac or Diallo

Last two are if we never made the trade for two seconds for future first.

You should cross every name off this list who was not a potential draft-and-stash player. Those 2 picks were not going to be used for anyone who would have taken up cap space that year. Boston drafted Brown with #3 and 2 players to stash overseas. They used the cap space to sign Horford and Hayward.

this.

the goal after Brown was drafting players he could stash, period.  I have little doubt that if Danny was drafting with a goal of bringing them onto the team immediately, he'd have taken players other than Yabu and Zizic.

Thing is, the C's ended up retaining Demetrius Jackson a 2nd round pick from that same draft.  Mickey and Young also stuck around that team.  Both were worthless.

In other words, there was absolutely no reason to waste any draft picks.  That said, I actually think Zizic was a quality pick.  He looks like he has a real shot at being at least a quality rotational player if not more.  Obviously not as good as Siakam, Murray, or Brogdon (and maybe Zubac), but not any where close to a bust like Yabu was. 

[Fafnir]

KD said no, so therefore there was no need to have the ability to offer him a second max slot along with Horford.

Okay......

[slamtheking]

 #16 Yabu
 #23 Zizic

 17 Baldwin 18 Ellenson

19 Beasley athletic scorer was not interested
20 Lavert I was intrigued by him, I take guys like him

27 Siakam
28 Skal
29 Dejounte Murray
30 D Jones
31 Deyonta Davis
32 Zubac
33 Diallo, liked him prefraft
35 Brogdon

 I was personally interested in this entire group above.

 I didn't scout Siakim at all. I loved Levert the most. Brogdon and Diallo.

Crazy we could have had

Jaylen Brown
Caris Levert
Paskal Siakim
Malcolm Brogdon
Zubac or Diallo

Last two are if we never made the trade for two seconds for future first.

You should cross every name off this list who was not a potential draft-and-stash player. Those 2 picks were not going to be used for anyone who would have taken up cap space that year. Boston drafted Brown with #3 and 2 players to stash overseas. They used the cap space to sign Horford and Hayward.

this.

the goal after Brown was drafting players he could stash, period.  I have little doubt that if Danny was drafting with a goal of bringing them onto the team immediately, he'd have taken players other than Yabu and Zizic.

Thing is, the C's ended up retaining Demetrius Jackson a 2nd round pick from that same draft.  Mickey and Young also stuck around that team.  Both were worthless.

In other words, there was absolutely no reason to waste any draft picks.  That said, I actually think Zizic was a quality pick.  He looks like he has a real shot at being at least a quality rotational player if not more.  Obviously not as good as Siakam, Murray, or Brogdon (and maybe Zubac), but not any where close to a bust like Yabu was. 

the difference is Yabu and Zizic were guaranteed contracts as first rounders if they weren't stashed.  That's different from the second rounders you're using as examples