The playoffs are just around the corner, and while the seeding is not perfectly set, we have a pretty good idea of who will be in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and who is likely to play whom.
The Celts are currently in 2nd with a 38-22 overall record, but their track record against quality opponents is not quite as impressive.
For this analysis I'm going to use the Four Factors traditionally used to measure how effective teams are on offense and defense - Rebounds, Shooting Efficiency, Turnovers, and Free Throws.
In addition to the Four Factors, I'm going to throw in another factor -- Three Point Shooting. Specifically: Volume Three Point Shooting.
All stats from ESPN, NBA.com, or TeamRankings.com.
Here's how Boston stacks up.
Offense:
25th - Offensive Rebound Rate
16th - Free Throws Made per 100 possessions
8th - Effective Field Goal %
5th - Turnovers per possession
Defense:
29th - Defensive Rebound Rate
7th - Opponent EFG%
23rd - Opponent FTM/100
15th - Opponent Turnovers per possession
Additional Factor - 3-pointers
3rd - 3PM per game
14th - O. 3PM per game
Overall this tells a story we've heard many times before: they are bad at rebounding. They're mediocre at getting to the line, and they foul too much. Those weaknesses, especially on the boards, have been a frequent topic of discussion in these parts over the years.
The surprises this year are that they are a really good shooting team that takes care of the ball, but they don't force very many turnovers. Last year, they took a good number of threes yet shot poorly. At the same time, they forced a crazy number of turnovers and generated lots of transition looks. It's kind of astonishing how much has changed in both of those areas. The Celts have much of the same personnel but the basis of their success has changed pretty substantially since last season.
Now, as for the Celts' potential playoff opponents.
Cleveland
Offense:
3rd - EFG%
16th - ORR
14th - FTM/100
14th - TO per poss.
Defense:
17th - OEFG%
20th - DRR
3rd - OFTM/100
23rd - O. TO per poss.
3-pointers:
2nd - 3PM per game
23rd - O3PM per game
Cleveland doesn't look like a great team by the stats. They score with good efficiency, they don't foul a lot on defense, and they hit a lot of threes. They're mediocre or worse at everything else. But they have this guy named LeBron James and he has a tendency to take his game up a few notches in the post-season.
Season Series:
The Cavs have beaten the Celts twice in two games so far this season (they play again tonight). The margin of victory was an average of 6 points. Both games were high scoring affairs, as you'd expect between two efficient offensive teams with poor defense. Generally speaking, the Celts had no answers for LeBron and Kyrie, while Love and Thompson dominated the boards. The Celts can score on the Cavs, but they don't have much hope of stopping them.
Toronto
Offense:
11th - EFG%
9th - ORR
1st - FTM/100
2nd - TO per poss.
Defense:
18th - OEFG%
20th - DRR
25th - OFTM/100
3rd - O. TO per poss.
3-pointers:
19th - 3PM per game
18th - O. 3PM per game
The Raptors are a really good offensive team, solid all-around. Their only notable weakness on that end is that they are a below average team in terms of volume of 3 pointers. But they don't turn it over, they score with efficiency, they pound the glass, and they get to the line a lot.
They're well below average on defense, though they force a lot of turnovers to make up for it. Also, who knows how Lowry's injury, combined with their trade deadline additions, will affect these rankings. It's hard to be sure what this team will be in a few month's time.
Season Series:
The Raptors won the season series 3-1. The only time the Celts beat the Raps was a game when Derozan was out with an injury. In the other 3 games, the Raptors won by an average of 8.33 points. Derozan averaged 36 points in those games. Bottom line: Demar Derozan eats the Celts alive.
Washington
Offense:
7th - EFG%
11th - ORR
24th - FTM/100
19th - TO per poss.
Defense:
19th - OEFG%
26th - DRR
16th - OFTM/100
2nd - O. TO per poss.
3-point Shooting:
21st - 3PM per game
17th - O3PM per game
The Wiz don't get to the line much and they turn the ball over too often, but they are a pretty good offensive team. That said, they're not going to kill you from deep. On the defensive end, they're not very good, but they do force a lot of turnovers.
It's not a bad recipe. Their starting lineup is excellent -- the Wall / Beal / Porter / Morris / Gortat lineup LEADS THE LEAGUE in +/- among 5-man units that have played at least 100 minutes together.
Season Series:
The Celts are 1-2 against the Wizards this season. None of the games have been especially close. Isaiah scored 38 against them in January, but the wing duo of Beal and Porter has posed problems for the Celts, as both guys are significantly larger than their counterparts on the Celts. There is nowhere for Isaiah to hide defensively in this matchup, and neither Wall nor Beal is a great physical matchup for AB. Still, the Wizards have a poor bench (though it's been significantly upgraded recently) and are not elite on either end of the floor.
Atlanta
Offense:
19th - EFG%
14th - ORR
21st - FTM/100
27th - TO per poss.
Defense:
8th - OEFG%
18th - DRR
4th - OFTM/100
4th - O. TO per poss.
3-point shooting:
22nd - 3PM per game
28th - O. 3PM per game
The Hawks are a good defensive team. In particular, they force a lot of turnovers without fouling too much. However, they give up a lot of threes without hitting very many themselves. They're not a good offensive team.
Season Series:
The Celts were blown out by the Hawks a couple nights ago. Previously, they eked out a win 103-101. On paper it's not a bad matchup, but the Hawks are a well-coached team with a lot of talent in the frontcourt. One would hope there would be no shortage of motivation for Al Horford if the teams were to meet in the playoffs.
Chicago
Offense:
30th - EFG%
2nd - ORR
4th - FTM/100
9th - TO per poss.
Defense:
20th - OEFG%
8th - DRR
2nd - OFTM/100
19th - O. TO per poss.
3-pointers:
30th - 3PM per game
7th - O. 3PM per game
Chicago is a team of extremes. They are a terrible shooting team, and are dead last in the league in three pointers made. However, they are really good on the boards and don't give up a lot of threes. They also get to the line a lot and don't foul very often on defense.
Season Series:
The Celtics are currently 1-2 against Chicago for the season, with one more match coming up. The games were relatively close, however, most notably the game before the All-Star break that ended on a phantom shooting foul called on Marcus Smart at the buzzer.
This matchup worries me. The Bulls are a deeply flawed team, but their strengths match up well with the Celts' weaknesses, and they have some veteran gamers in Butler and Wade. It wouldn't shock me if Playoff Rondo showed up for a game, even. I want no part of the Bulls in the post-season. Even if the Celts win, it would be an ugly series with lots of offensive rebounds extending possessions and a myriad trips to the free throw line.
Indiana
Offense:
12th - EFG%
26th - ORR
15th - FTM/100
15th - TO per poss.
Defense:
12th - OEFG%
28th - DRR
24th - OFTM/100
9th - O. TO per poss.
3-pointers:
26th - 3PM per game
26th - O. 3PM per game
The Pacers are not especially good at anything apart from forcing turnovers and making Celtics fans angry at Danny Ainge. They are a poor three point shooting team that doesn't rebound the ball, get to the line especially often, or defend the three point line. They do have some talented size in Paul George and Myles Turner, however. I would be somewhat concerned about those two having a game or two and making it a series. But I would not be seriously worried about the Pacers.
Season Series:
Unsurprisingly, the Celts have won both their matchups against the Pacers this season by multiple possessions.
Detroit
Offense:
24th - EFG%
14th - ORR
30th - FTM/100
3rd - TO per poss.
Defense:
16th - OEFG%
1st - DRR
4th - OFTM/100
25th - O. TO per poss.
3-pointers:
28th - 3PM per game
5th - O. 3PM per game
Give SVG some credit. His Pistons are well-coached. They defend the glass. They don't send opponents to the line too much. They don't turn the ball over. They don't give up a lot of outside shots. That said, they can't shoot very well themselves, they really can't generate or make free throws, and they don't force turnovers. There just isn't a strong path to victory for this team. If they even make the playoffs, they'll be a quick out.
Season Series:
The Celts are 2-1 against the Pistons this season, though the games have been relatively close. I'd be a little worried about a 1st round series going to six or seven games just because Harris and Morris take advantage of size mismatches to hit a ton of mid-range shots and Drummond averages 20 boards a game. Still, the Pistons are just not a very good team on either end, and that limits their ability to force an upset.
Conclusions:
The Celtics better keep a top 2 seed and hope that it's Indiana or Detroit on the other side of the ticket in the 1st round. Those teams just don't have enough strengths to really take advantage of the Celts' weaknesses. If it's the Bulls or Hawks (or the Raptors slip), I would be pretty concerned.
If the Celts make it that far, a 2nd round matchup against the Raptors or Wizards could be really unpleasant for the Celts. It'll take a full strength Celtics squad operating at peak efficiency to beat those teams, especially in light of the improvements those teams made to their rosters.
As for the Cavs, their regular season numbers are characteristically unimpressive, but they have too much firepower not to score a ton on any Eastern Conference opponent they may face. On defense, LeBron will need to step up his game, which he has shown year after year that he can and will do. However, the minutes load he's taken on this season makes one wonder if he might finally show some mortality this season.
Even if he does, it seems unlikely the Celts will be there to face him in the ECF. You have to wonder if there's another gear for this Celts team. We've already seen Isaiah Thomas take his game a notch higher than we'd seen it previously over the course of the regular season. The defensive intensity, either on the boards or in the passing lanes (both would be even better) will need to increase if the Celts want to have a post-season worth remembering.
Topic: Deep Dive on Celts and Potential Playoff Opponents (Read 1862 times)