Sam Hinkie is only interested in stars. He traded away Michael Carter Williams after he won Rookie of the Year because he felt that he had a limited ceiling. If Embiid can't play for two years, he will wait it out and continue to stink and pick at the top of the draft. He's probably going to add either Russell or Porzingis to his collection of potential future stars. They have Noel and Saric will be here someday. A rotation guy like Olynyk doesn't even register on his radar.
I'm not even sure a defensive roleplayer like Marcus Smart registers on his radar. He picked Embiid #3 in spite of him being a year away from returning. Teams tried trading up... he wasn't interested.
A couple weeks ago if you were to ask anyone in the 76ers organization how Embiid was doing, they'd say he was looking explosive and dominant. He had been playing basketball for a couple months and aggressively working out without any pain. In early June they said he would definitely be playing in summer league. A routine check-up revealed that his injury was not yet fully healed. Everyone lost their minds. The team hasn't even ruled him out of summer league yet (which is a couple weeks from now). The team has brought in 3 more doctors to look at Embiid. Pessimists say it's because they need 3 doctors to fix him. Optimists will say its' because they want all the expert opinions they can get before deciding whether summer league is worth the risk.
There's two camps right now. Neither side has any idea if they are right. It's all purely speculative. The team has merely said he hasn't healed as fast as they hoped. Multiple sources have confirmed that Embiid hasn't re-injured anything. Multiple sources have confirmed that nothing forced the check-up... it was just a routine one that was on the schedule. Two camps with two very different interpretations of what "not healing as fast as we hoped" means:
#1 - Some people think "not healed as fast" means that it has healed improperly. They have no evidence to support this... just some media spin citing "NBA Sources" who claim Embiid "could" miss the next season. They expect that three doctors are being brought in to evaluate whether Embiid needs a second surgery.
#2 - Some people think it means that the injury (which can take a year to heal) hasn't fully healed yet despite the fact it's literally been 1 year since his surgery. They believe this means the bone is probably fine, but the soft tissue surrounding it might not be fully filled in yet. Basically, if the supporting tissue isn't there it could put him at a greater risk of reinjury. They believe doctors are being brought in to decide if it's best to let him rest longer (season is 4 months away) or if there's anything he can do to speed up healing. Evidence for such a theory: "hasn't healed as fast" could mean exactly what they are saying... it hasn't healed as fast as they hoped. If he was 100% right now, he'd be gearing up for Summer league. If he's 95%, it might give them pause. Comments from the team seem to support this theory (they want to make sure he's healthy long-term). The team put him in a walking boot, which seems to back up what doctors typically do in this scenario... give it rest and hope it heals more. Bill Self claimed this is exactly what the team is doing... having Embiid slow down his aggressive workouts with hopes that it will heal more under less aggressive training.
If you're in camp 1, maybe you assume that Embiid is further away from playing than when they selected him. In that case, I guess you would believe that Embiid can be had for less than he was worth a year ago.
If you're in camp 2... Embiid is much closer to playing than he was last year. His value logically shouldn't be less. If there's a good chance he'll play opening night, why would he be worth less than he was last season? I'm in camp 2. My guess is that Philly is also in camp 2. If you're in camp 2, it's nonsensical for you to take LESS for Embiid than you would have a year ago. That not only rules out this silly Olynyk idea, but it also probably rules out Smart + #16 + #26. Why? Because they wouldn't have taken that a year ago and that was when the guys at #6 (Smart, Randle, Vonleh) had considerably more trade value than they do right now. All three of those guys had underwhelming rookie seasons. I really like Smart, but I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate. He averaged 8, 3 and 3. His trade value has dropped. Embiid's should arguably be higher than it was last year.
He's nothing more than a defensive role player right now. We'll see what happens to him. His rookie season was pretty majorly disappointing, imo. I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate. He was an 8, 3 and 3 guy... and he was pretty garbage offensively: 37%/34%/65%
There's no way Marcus Smart's trade value is higher than the #6 pick was last year. Last year, that draft was seen as a historic once-a-decade draft. For context, Chad Ford polled several teams to determine how they ranked prospects in tiers. Tier 1 - can't-miss superstar talent. Tier 2 - guys who project into all-stars. They had three guys in tier 1 (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker) and another 6 in tier 2. This year they have one guy in Tier 1 (Towns) and four guys in tier 2. Marcus Smart was one of the "tier 2" guys last year. Everything I read suggested he was one of the three most NBA-ready guys in the draft (Parker and Randle being the other two). From that, I assumed he would be a Tyreke Evans type. Tyreke Evans, picked 4th in 2009, put up 20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals on 46%/26%/75% shooting as a rookie. I figured 15, 5 and 5 from Smart (who put up similar college stats to Evans) was reasonable. It's hard to look at the season Smart had and not consider it underwhelming.
This is a little ridiculous don't you think? According to you, 90% of the 2014 draft class was a disappointment. Exum, Gordon haven't been great either.....They were drafted ahead of Smart. It's very dumb to judge a player based on their first year. I'm very disappointed someone with your intellectual capability would be so quick to judge.
Yes, tankcity... the 2014 draft has, thus far, unequivocally been a MASSIVE disappointment. No question.
If you were to tell me before the draft that our huge #6 pick was going to net us a guy who would put up rookie averages of 7.8 points, 3.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals on .367/.335/.646 shooting... after everyone spent the entire summer talking about how "NBA-ready" the kid was... I'd be like, "TRAAAAAADE IT!!! TRAAAAAAADE IT!!!!". I like Smart. He was far more valuable as a #6 pick. He's been a big disappointment. I figured with the way they talked about him, we'd be getting a Tyreke Evans type... quasi star who can put up 15/5/5.
As for Embiid... if he was worth more than Smart a year ago, I don't see why he'd be worth less now.
I do think Smart has a nice future. I think Embiid can be a transcendent player. Forget this Olynyk nonsense. Kelly Olynyk probably doesn't even get you a lotto pick. If we're talking Embiid, I'd give up Smart, #16 and #28 for him right now (Philly probably says no).. unless the 3 docs tell me his career is over. But 1 year ago he had surgery which admittedly takes about a year to heal fully... fell to #3... and now a year later they are saying .. well... they aren't really saying anything, actually. All they have said is that it's not as healed as they hoped. So he's not 100%. What that means, we will not know for a couple weeks.
the injury has not healed as Philly hoped.
when you gamble on a 7 footer with stress related injuries and then those injuries 12 months later have not healed the way you hoped, that player has less value than he did 12 years ago. Its like buying a lotto ticket and scratching off the first number to find that the number doesnt match up with the winning numbers.
It doesnt mean that you throw the lotto ticket out for Kelly Olynyk but it certainly means that the lotto ticket is less valuable than it was when you bought it.
I think the most importan thing to note here is that trading for Embiid is always going to be a circular argument.
No one is going to trade for Embiid if this foot thing is a serious set back. If you get your physical of Embiid and determine that he is probably going to miss another season and that this injury will follow him, then we all agree not to sacrifice huge assets for the big man. Now on the other hand, if he checks out and the foot looks good, then sure Im on board with shipping out some of our best assets, but if the foot checks out guess whos not getting traded???
Hinkie will only trade embiid if he a) gets a godfather offer or b) Embiids foot is absolutely
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