Sam Hinkie is only interested in stars. He traded away Michael Carter Williams after he won Rookie of the Year because he felt that he had a limited ceiling. If Embiid can't play for two years, he will wait it out and continue to stink and pick at the top of the draft. He's probably going to add either Russell or Porzingis to his collection of potential future stars. They have Noel and Saric will be here someday. A rotation guy like Olynyk doesn't even register on his radar.
I'm not even sure a defensive roleplayer like Marcus Smart registers on his radar. He picked Embiid #3 in spite of him being a year away from returning. Teams tried trading up... he wasn't interested.
A couple weeks ago if you were to ask anyone in the 76ers organization how Embiid was doing, they'd say he was looking explosive and dominant. He had been playing basketball for a couple months and aggressively working out without any pain. In early June they said he would definitely be playing in summer league. A routine check-up revealed that his injury was not yet fully healed. Everyone lost their minds. The team hasn't even ruled him out of summer league yet (which is a couple weeks from now). The team has brought in 3 more doctors to look at Embiid. Pessimists say it's because they need 3 doctors to fix him. Optimists will say its' because they want all the expert opinions they can get before deciding whether summer league is worth the risk.
There's two camps right now. Neither side has any idea if they are right. It's all purely speculative. The team has merely said he hasn't healed as fast as they hoped. Multiple sources have confirmed that Embiid hasn't re-injured anything. Multiple sources have confirmed that nothing forced the check-up... it was just a routine one that was on the schedule. Two camps with two very different interpretations of what "not healing as fast as we hoped" means:
#1 - Some people think "not healed as fast" means that it has healed improperly. They have no evidence to support this... just some media spin citing "NBA Sources" who claim Embiid "could" miss the next season. They expect that three doctors are being brought in to evaluate whether Embiid needs a second surgery.
#2 - Some people think it means that the injury (which can take a year to heal) hasn't fully healed yet despite the fact it's literally been 1 year since his surgery. They believe this means the bone is probably fine, but the soft tissue surrounding it might not be fully filled in yet. Basically, if the supporting tissue isn't there it could put him at a greater risk of reinjury. They believe doctors are being brought in to decide if it's best to let him rest longer (season is 4 months away) or if there's anything he can do to speed up healing. Evidence for such a theory: "hasn't healed as fast" could mean exactly what they are saying... it hasn't healed as fast as they hoped. If he was 100% right now, he'd be gearing up for Summer league. If he's 95%, it might give them pause. Comments from the team seem to support this theory (they want to make sure he's healthy long-term). The team put him in a walking boot, which seems to back up what doctors typically do in this scenario... give it rest and hope it heals more. Bill Self claimed this is exactly what the team is doing... having Embiid slow down his aggressive workouts with hopes that it will heal more under less aggressive training.
If you're in camp 1, maybe you assume that Embiid is further away from playing than when they selected him. In that case, I guess you would believe that Embiid can be had for less than he was worth a year ago.
If you're in camp 2... Embiid is much closer to playing than he was last year. His value logically shouldn't be less. If there's a good chance he'll play opening night, why would he be worth less than he was last season? I'm in camp 2. My guess is that Philly is also in camp 2. If you're in camp 2, it's nonsensical for you to take LESS for Embiid than you would have a year ago. That not only rules out this silly Olynyk idea, but it also probably rules out Smart + #16 + #26. Why? Because they wouldn't have taken that a year ago and that was when the guys at #6 (Smart, Randle, Vonleh) had considerably more trade value than they do right now. All three of those guys had underwhelming rookie seasons. I really like Smart, but I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate. He averaged 8, 3 and 3. His trade value has dropped. Embiid's should arguably be higher than it was last year.
He's nothing more than a defensive role player right now. We'll see what happens to him. His rookie season was pretty majorly disappointing, imo. I figured he'd be a 15, 5 and 5 guy out of the gate. He was an 8, 3 and 3 guy... and he was pretty garbage offensively: 37%/34%/65%
There's no way Marcus Smart's trade value is higher than the #6 pick was last year. Last year, that draft was seen as a historic once-a-decade draft. For context, Chad Ford polled several teams to determine how they ranked prospects in tiers. Tier 1 - can't-miss superstar talent. Tier 2 - guys who project into all-stars. They had three guys in tier 1 (Embiid, Wiggins, Parker) and another 6 in tier 2. This year they have one guy in Tier 1 (Towns) and four guys in tier 2. Marcus Smart was one of the "tier 2" guys last year. Everything I read suggested he was one of the three most NBA-ready guys in the draft (Parker and Randle being the other two). From that, I assumed he would be a Tyreke Evans type. Tyreke Evans, picked 4th in 2009, put up 20 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals on 46%/26%/75% shooting as a rookie. I figured 15, 5 and 5 from Smart (who put up similar college stats to Evans) was reasonable. It's hard to look at the season Smart had and not consider it underwhelming.
